私募基金： 皇帝的新衣还能穿多久？ | 经济学人财经

PE-kaboo

私募——撕下虚假的一幕

英文部分选自经济学人20221203财经版块

PE-kaboo

私募——撕下虚假的一幕

How long can private funds keep hiding plunging asset values?

私募基金： 皇帝的新衣还能穿多久？

Babies lacking object permanence—the understanding that things they cannot see continue to exist—love the game of peekaboo. An adult hides their face from sight, then suddenly comes back into view, prompting squeals of delight. Grown-ups no longer enjoy being deceived—unless they invest in private equity and venture capital, where hiding bad news is part of the fun.

缺乏物体恒存概念（即物体从视野中消失后依旧存在）的婴儿喜欢躲猫猫游戏：一个大人先是蒙住脸，然后突然（手放下）出现在婴儿的视野中，引来婴儿高兴地尖叫起来。成年人不再喜欢被欺骗——除非参与了风投或私募股权投资，在这两块领域里“报喜不报忧”就是乐趣的一部分。

注释：

1.object permanence：物体恒存（英语：Object permanence）是指当物体无法被感官所察觉时，这些物体仍然存在。这是发展心理学，也是心理学在解决婴儿和儿童的社会和心理能力发展的子领域研究的一个基本概念。

Source: 

https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/zh-hans/%E7%89%A9%E9%AB%94%E6%81%86%E5%AD%98

2.Peekaboo：躲猫猫（英語：Peekaboo或Peek-a-boo），是一种逗樂婴儿、幼兒的游戏。躲猫猫的反复遮眼玩法多是西方国家逗樂嬰兒的遊戲，玩法是父母用双手蒙住自己的脸，然后靠近婴儿，将手突然拿开，變出怪面及大叫一聲，從而引起婴儿大笑。不過亦可能嚇到嬰兒而造成反效果。

Source: https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/zh/%E8%BA%B2%E7%8C%AB%E7%8C%AB

3.Squeals：to make a shrill cry or noise 尖叫地说

Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/squeals

A huge gap between the valuations of publicly listed companies and their unlisted peers’ has opened in 2022. Lincoln International, a bank, reckons the enterprise value of firms held by private-equity funds globally rose 1.9% in the third quarter, leaving them up 3.2% for the year to date. The s&p 500, by contrast, fell 22.3% in the same period.

2022年，上市公司与非上市公司估值已然拉开了巨大差距。林肯国际银行（Lincoln International）估计：全球范围内，私募股权基金持有的公司估值在第三季度增长了1.9%，迄今为止本年度则增长了3.2%。相比之下，标准普尔500指数同期下跌22.3%。

That is a relief to many institutional investors, such as pension funds, who cannot afford big losses. In the past decade they have splurged trillions of dollars on private assets. Soon these could also be found in greater volumes in 401k plans, America’s employer-sponsored retirement schemes. When interest rates were low, fans of buy-outs and venture capital were drawn to their high reported returns. Now that market chaos reigns, their lower volatility is the bigger selling point.

这让包括各种养老基金在内的，众多无法承受重大损失的机构投资者如释重负。过去十年中，他们在私募资产上豪掷数万亿美元。很快，401k计划（美国雇主赞助的退休福利计划）中也会见到更多的私募投资产品。当银行储蓄利率低时，并购和风投的铁杆粉丝很容易被私募的高回报所吸引。现下市场持续动荡，私募较低的波动性则成了其更大的卖点。

注释：

1.美国401(k)退休福利计划：是美国于1981年创立一种延后课税的退休金帐户计划，美国政府将相关规定明订在国税法第401(k)条中，故简称为401(k)计划。401(k)计划美国政府推行的一种雇主和个人共同承担的养老金账户。由劳工雇主申请设立后，雇员每月提拨某一数额薪水至其退休金帐户。当劳工离职时可以选择将其中金额拨往一个金融机构的个人退休金帐户（IRA）或是新公司的401(k)帐户。

Source: 

https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/zh-hans/401(k)%E9%80%80%E4%BC%91%E7%A6%8F%E5%88%A9%E8%A8%88%E7%95%AB

2. Buy-outs: to purchase the entire stock-in-trade and the goodwill of (a business) 并购

Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/buyout

The gulf in valuations cannot be justified on economic grounds. All firms face the same toxic cocktail of slowing growth, rising interest rates and stubborn inflation. If anything, private ones, often more leveraged, should be more exposed when credit tightens. Instead the gap is mostly an illusion rooted in the peculiarities of private investing. One is well known. While public markets are constantly repriced in full view of the world’s investors, shares in private firms are traded far more rarely and opaquely. Some founders would rather sink with their ship than agree to a cut in valuation.

这种估值的巨大差异在经济学上站不住脚。所有公司都面临着相同的不利因素：增长放缓、利率上升以及居高不下的通货膨胀。如果说有什么区别的话，那就是这些未上市公司通常杠杆率更高，当信贷紧缩时面临的风险也就更大。事实上，这种估值鸿沟只是一种假象，它的出现主要是由私募投资的内在特性造成的。其中一个特性众所周知：全球投资者时刻都在公开市场中对资产重新定价，而私募资产的股权交易，无论是交易频率还是透明度，都与前者有不小差距。一些创始人宁愿“随船沉没”，也不愿降低估值。

Less appreciated is the array of tricks private funds use to smooth out returns. Many keep their valuation-work in house: a 2015 survey by Grant Thornton, a consultancy, found that only around a quarter of them sought an independent opinion on the growth and discount rates they use in their models. That gives managers the discretion to make assumptions that flatter the prospects of the firms they own. Many have also taken to borrowing money to do deals instead of calling for investors’ capital straight away. This has the effect of artificially boosting a fund’s internal rate of return, a key performance benchmark.

相比之下，私募基金用来平滑收益（波动）的一系列技巧则少有人知。许多公司的估值都是在内部进行的：咨询公司均富国际（Grant Thornton）2015年的一项调查发现，只有约四分之一的私募基金对其在模型中使用的增长率和贴现率寻求独立意见。这让投资经理可以随心所欲进行假设，画出一张公司光明前景的大饼。许多经理已开始借钱交易，而非立即向投资者招募资金。这也就人为地提高了基金的内部收益率（IRR）——一项关键的业绩指标。

注释：
1，Grant Thornton：均富国际（Grant Thornton International）是由来自美国、澳大利亚、加拿大、英国等地的会计事务所组成的一个跨国会计公司，其前身是于1924年在芝加哥成立的一家会计事务所；后于1980年组建了现今的均富国际。
2，内部收益率（Internal Rate of Return (IRR)），就是资金流入现值总额与资金流出现值总额相等、净现值等于零时的折现率。最简单的理解就是在复利情况下，投资的平均年化收益率。按照年化收益率，很多人就能理解什么是IRR，比如支付宝的余额宝里面的年化收益率，银行理财产品的年化收益率等等，都属于IRR。

Cliff Asness of aqr Capital Management, an investment firm, once dubbed such obfuscation tactics “volatility laundering”. Today they are paying off. Smoothing returns can limit the upside of private equity during the  stages of a roaring market, but it keeps returns afloat when the economy faces a storm. Private funds are still reporting gains that were made during the steroid-fed bull run of 2020 and 2021.

投资公司AQR资本管理公司（AQR Capital Management）的克里夫·阿斯内斯（Cliff Asness）曾给这种混淆策略起绰号为“洗波动性”。如今这些策略在发挥成效。在市场繁荣的时候，平滑收益限制了私募股权的上行空间，但当金融风暴来袭，这种策略却能保持住其一定的收益率。私募基金现在仍在报告来自2020和2021年疯狂牛市时期的收益。

Massaging techniques can be used to nefarious ends. The collapse of Abraaj Group, a Dubai-based private-equity firm, was partly caused by inflated valuations intended to mask poor performance. But more often return-smoothing provides the funds’ knowing clients exactly what they want. Research by academics at the University of Florida published in October shows private-property fund managers fiddle returns more when they manage a greater share of their investors’ total assets—that is, when their manipulations matter more to the end clients’ overall performance.

美化技巧还可以被用在不道德的目的上。Abraaj Group这家迪拜的私募股权投资公司的失败有一部分原因在于用虚高的估值掩盖糟糕的资产表现。但更多情况下，对于这些基金的客户而言，平滑策略正是投其所好。一项来自佛罗里达大学的研究显示，当私募基金经理管理客户资产比例增长时——即他们的的操纵对终端客户整体资产回报率影响更大时——这些经理会更多地进行回报率粉饰活动。

注释：

1.massage：虚报，篡改，美化

2.nefarious：(尤指活动)邪恶的，不道德的

3.end：目的；目标

How long can the illusion last? During the bursting of the dotcom bubble in 2000, it took American venture-capital managers nearly half a year to report impairments after public markets peaked. American buy-out funds held off even longer after listed equities crashed in 2007. In fact public markets began recovering in 2009—quickly enough that private investors never had to mark down the full extent of the slump.

幻象还可以持续多久？在2000年互联网泡沫破裂的时候，美国的风投管理人在二级市场见顶半年后才开始计提减值。美国的并购基金在2007年股市见顶后强撑了更长时间。事实上当二级市场在2009年就开始复苏——速度快到一级市场投资者从未需要在资产价格上体现危机的全貌。

It is unlikely private firms will be able to levitate long enough this time. Over a year has passed since the peak of the nasdaq Composite, a tech-heavy index. The cash holdings of some private firms are eroding, leaving little for return-smoothing financial engineers to play with. In August Masayoshi Son, the boss of Softbank Group, a Japanese investment giant, predicted private valuations would rejoin public-market ones within 12 to 18 months. Without a 2009-style recovery in public equities in sight, an unavoidable downgrade looms. No doubt many investors would prefer to continue playing along with the peekaboo charade. But soon private-fund managers will have nowhere to hide.

未上市公司似乎这一次无法再漂浮太久了。距离Nasdaq这一主要含科技股的指数的见顶已经过去了超过一年。一些未上市公司的现金持有开始消耗，使得金融工程师们没有太多空间进行“收益平滑”操作。8月份，日本投资界巨擘软银集团的老板孙正义预测说私募股权的估值将会在12到18个月内回归到上市公司的估值水平。在二级市场缺失像2009年那样迅猛的恢复后，一场不可避免的降级隐约显现。毫无疑问，很多投资者想要继续自欺欺人地玩躲猫猫游戏。但是很快，私募股权管理人们将会无处可躲。

注释：

1.private firms：私有公司，也就是未上市公司，是public firms上市公司的对应词汇

2.levitate：（使）漂浮

3.charade：显而易见地作假；明显的伪装

翻译组：

、Martina，女，爱电影爱生活，爱金融经济

Vic，男，金融硕，喜欢西方金融史，喜欢读书，喜欢文化。

Summer，女，QE在职，梦想能仗走天涯 翻译/音乐 /健康

校对组：

Diamond，男，血汗工厂搬砖工，经济学人粉丝

Hannah，女, 爱读财经的金融小白 经济学人唯粉