海外房价跌麻了 | 经济学人财经

2022-10-27 01:10

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House-price horror show

房价恐怖秀

英文部分选自经济学人20221022财经版块

House-price horror show

房价恐怖秀

A slump in house prices is coming. It won’t blow up the financial system, but it will be scary

房价暴跌就在眼前。虽不至摧毁金融体系，但亦足够恐怖

Over the past decade owning a house has meant easy money. Prices rose reliably for years and then went bizarrely ballistic in the pandemic. Yet today if your wealth is tied up in bricks and mortar it is time to get nervous. House prices are now falling in nine rich economies . The drops in America are small so far, but in the wildest markets they are already dramatic. In condo-crazed Canada homes cost 9% less than they did in February. As inflation and recession stalk the world a deepening correction is likely—even estate agents are gloomy. Although this will not detonate global banks as in 2007-09, it will intensify the downturn, leave a cohort of people with wrecked finances and start a political storm.

在过去的十年里，拥有一个房子就意味着轻松赚钱。多年来房价稳步上涨，然后在疫情中离奇地暴涨。然而今天，如果你的财富套牢在房产投资上，该到了捏一把汗的时候了。现在9个富裕经济体的房价正在下跌。到目前为止，虽然房价在美国的跌幅很小，但在某些市场却已跌疯了。在公寓市场火爆的加拿大，房价比2月份低了9%。随着通胀和衰退在世界范围内蔓延，一次深度的调整也许正在酝酿——甚至房地产经纪人也很悲观。尽管这不会像2007-09年那样引爆全球银行，但会加剧经济衰退，让某些群体的财务状况变得窘迫，并引发一场政治风暴。

注释：

1. bizarrely：奇形怪状地；怪诞地

2. ballistic：If somethinggoes ballistic, it suddenly becomes very much greater or more powerful, often in a surprising or unwanted way. (常指意料之外的或不受欢迎的)暴涨; 大增

3. bricks and mortar：砖和砂浆，比喻（尤指视为投资的）房产。

4. condo：分户出售公寓大厦（等于 condominium）

5. detonate: If someonedetonates a device such as a bomb, or if it detonates, it explodes. 引爆; 爆炸

The cause of the crunch is soaring interest rates: in America prospective buyers have been watching, horrified, as the 30-year mortgage rate has hit 6.92%, over twice the level of a year ago and the highest since April 2002. The pandemic mini-bubble was fuelled by rate cuts, stimulus cash and a hunt for more suburban space. Now most of that is going into reverse. Take, for example, someone who a year ago could afford to put $1,800 a month towards a 30-year mortgage. Back then they could have borrowed $420,000. Today the payment is enough for a loan of $280,000: 33% less. From Stockholm to Sydney the buying power of borrowers is collapsing. That makes it harder for new buyers to afford homes, depressing demand, and can squeeze the finances of existing owners who, if they are unlucky, may be forced to sell.

造成危机的原因是利率飙升：在美国，潜在的买家惊恐地看着30年期抵押贷款利率飙升至6.92%，相比一年前翻了一倍多，突破2002年4月以来的最高水平。降息、刺激性现金补助，以及对更多郊区空间的追捧，共同吹大了疫情流行下的小型“泡沫”。现在，大部分情况都正在发生逆转。举个例子，某人一年前有能力负担每月偿付1800美元的30年期抵押贷款。那时候，他们可以借到42万美元。今天，这偿付额只够借到28万美元的贷款，足足减少了33%。从斯德哥尔摩到悉尼，借款人的购买力已经完全支棱不起来了。这使得新买家更难买房，抑制了需求；对存量业主而言，一旦时运不济，不得不出售房屋，就会发现自己的财务空间被低房价挤压了。

注释：

crunch: A situation in which a business or economy has very little money can be referred to as acrunch. 财政困难

The good news is that falling house prices will not cause an epic financial bust in America as they did 15 years ago. The country has fewer risky loans and better-capitalised banks which have not binged on dodgy subprime securities. Uncle Sam now under writes or securitises two-thirds of new mortgages. The big losers will be taxpayers. Through state insurance schemes they bear the risk of defaults. As rates rise they are exposed to losses via the Federal Reserve, which owns one-quarter of mortgage-backed securities.

好在此次的楼市跳水不会像15年前那样，在美国金融界掀起一场腥风血雨。如今，美国的高风险贷款数量锐减，各大银行资本更为充足，而且不再流连于次级证券。如今美国三分之二的新增住房抵押贷款都由联邦政府提供背书并进行证券化。而受伤最大的实际是纳税人，因为政府兜底其实相当于由他们承担违约风险。目前四分之一的抵押支持债券（MBS）由美联储持有，随着利率攀升，这些纳税人或会因此而遭遇损失。

Some other places, such as South Korea and the Nordic countries, have seen scarier accelerations in borrowing, with household debt of around 100% of gdp. They could face destabilising losses at their banks or shadow financial firms: Sweden’s central-bank boss has likened this to “sitting on top of a volcano”. But the world’s worst housing-related financial crisis will still be confined to China, whose problems—vast speculative excess, mortgage strikes, people who have pre-paid for flats which have not been built—are, mercifully, contained within its borders.

而在韩国和北欧国家等其他地方，借贷规模正在以惊人的速度攀升，家庭负债总量几乎可与GDP平齐。这些地区的银行或其他影子金融机构或面临的损失可能引发动荡。瑞典央行行长将这一状况形容为“宛如坐在一座火山口上”。

Even without a synchronised global banking crash, though, the housing downturn will be grim. First, because gummed-up property markets are a drag on the jobs market. As rates rise and prices gradually adjust, the uncertainty makes people hesitant about moving. Sales of existing homes in America dropped by 20% in August year on year, and Zillow, a housing firm, reports 13% fewer new listings than the seasonal norm. In Canada sales volumes could drop by 40% this year. When people cannot move, it saps labour markets of dynamism, a big worry when companies are trying to adapt to worker shortages and the energy crisis. And when prices do plunge, homeowners can find their homes are worth less than their mortgages, making it even harder to up sticks—a problem that afflicted many economies after the global financial crisis.

即便不会引发一场同时席卷全球的金融风暴，楼市下行的危害也不容小觑。首先，危机四伏的地产市场将拖累就业市场。随着利率上扬，价格逐渐调整，对未来的不确定性将打击人才的地域流动。美国八月现房成交量同比萎缩两成；地产公司Zillow的数据显示，挂牌交易的季度房屋数量较正常值下滑13%。加拿大今年的成交量更是大跌40%。人口流动受阻将打击劳动力市场的活力，这对于目前正在苦苦应对劳动力短缺以及能源危机的公司而言无疑是一记重棒。而一旦房价暴跌，房主会发现自己背负的房贷比房子的价值还高，从而更加不可能迁居别处——这正是上次全球金融危机之后困扰很多国家的一个难题。

Lower house prices also hurt growth in a second way: they make already-gloomy consumers even more miserable. Worldwide, homes are worth about $250trn (for comparison, stockmarkets are worth only $90trn), and account for half of all wealth. As that edifice of capital crumbles, consumers are likely to cut back on spending. Though a cooler economy is what central banks intend to bring about by raising interest rates, collapsing confidence can take on a momentum of its own.

低房价可能给经济增长带来第二个重击，因其对本就悲观的消费者无异于雪上加霜。全球的房产价值约为250万亿美元，占全部财富的一半（相比之下，股票市场价值仅为90万亿美元）。大厦将倾，消费者可能会捂紧钱包。尽管各国央行想通过提高利率来给经济降温，但信心崩溃可能会自成一势。

A further problem is concentrated pain borne by a minority of homeowners. By far the most exposed are those who have not locked in interest rates and face soaring mortgage bills. Relatively few are in America, where subsidised 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are the norm. But four in five Swedish loans have a fixed period of two years or less, and half of all New Zealand’s fixed-rate mortgages have been or are due for refinancing this year.

还有一个问题，那就是痛苦集中落在了少数的住房所有者身上。目前首当其冲的要属那些没有锁定利率，面临着房贷账单不断飙升的住房所有者。在美国，这种情况相对罕见。因为在美国，获得30年期固定利率的政府补贴房贷是常态。但是，多达八成瑞典贷款的固定利率期限为两年或更短。而一半的新西兰固定利率房贷已经或即将到期，需要申请新的贷款。

When combined with a cost-of-living squeeze, that points to a growing number of households in financial distress. In Australia perhaps a fifth of all mortgage debt is owed by households who will see their spare cashflowfall by 20% or more if interest rates rise as expected. In Britain 2m households could see their mortgage absorb another 10% of their income, according to one estimate. Those who cannot afford the payments may have to dump their houses on the market instead.

在生活成本受到挤压的同时，这意味着越来越多的家庭将陷入财务困境。在澳大利亚，如果利率按预期上升，一些家庭的可自由支配现金将减少20% 或更多，而这部分家庭在澳大利亚房贷家庭总数中占比达到两成。根据一项估计，在英国，可能将有200万家庭需要另外多拿出10%的收入用来缴付房贷。而那些无力偿还贷款的家庭可能不得不抛售他们的房产。

That is where the political dimension comes in. Housing markets are already a battleground. Thickets of red tape make it too hard to build new homes in big cities, leading to shortages. A generation of young people in the rich world feel they have been unfairly excluded from home ownership. Although lower house prices will reduce the deposit needed to obtain a mortgage, it is first-time buyers who depend most on debt financing, which is now expensive. And a whole new class of financially vulnerable homeowners are about to join the ranks of the discontented.

这就难免牵涉到政治因素了。房市已然成为高度受人关注的政治议题。纷繁复杂的繁琐手续让大城市中的住房建设工程举步维艰，致使市场上住房短缺。身居富裕世界的一代年轻人感觉被踢出拥有住房之列实属不公。虽然更低的房价意味着获得房屋抵押贷款所需的存款更少，但首次购房者还是最依赖房贷资金，而现在还房贷的成本更高了。而这新一批陷入经济困境的房主很快会加入抗议者的行列。

Dangerous properties

危机四伏的房产业

Having bailed out the economy repeatedly in the past 15 years, most Western governments will be tempted to come to the rescue yet again. In America fears of a housing calamity have led some to urge the Fed to slow its vital rate rises. Spain is reported to be considering limiting rising mortgage payments, and Hungary has already done so. Expect more countries to follow.

过去15年中，绝大部分西方政府一再出手进行经济纾困，此次也有意再次出手相救。在美国，担心房地产行业崩盘的恐慌情绪蔓延，令一些人敦促美联储放缓至关重要的加息步伐。据报道，西班牙正考虑限制住房按揭还款涨幅，而匈牙利已采取了这样的限制措施了。预计会有更多国家效仿这一举措。

That could see governments’ debts rise still further and encourage the idea that home ownership is a one-way bet backed by the state. And it would also do little to solve the underlying problems that bedevil the rich world’s housing markets, many of which are due to ill-guided and excessive government intervention, from mortgage subsidies and distortive taxes to excessively onerous planning rules. As an era of low interest rates comes to an end, a home-price crunch is coming—and there is no guarantee of a better housing market at the end of it all.

如此一来，政府债务将继续攀升，并促使人们认为买房是一项受政府支持而稳赚不赔的押注。而且，这也无助于解决困扰发达国家房地产市场的根本问题。其中许多问题都是政府误导和过多干预导致的，无论是提供按揭还款补助，还是出台与现实不符的税收措施，抑或推出过度繁重的计划规定，皆是如此。随着低利率时代终结，房价困境正迎面而来：而且没有人能保证这一困境结束之时，地产市场将迎来好转的曙光。

摘要：房价暴跌，虽未动摇金融体系，但已然危机四伏。

翻译组：

Ellie，女，金融硕士，经济学人粉丝

Vivifang，女，外币债券交易员，经济学人粉丝

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校对组：

Cecilia，今年过得贵妇一点

Francis，男，高校青椒，持有ACCA的翻译小透明

Jessie Lulu，女，金融从业者，爱阳光，爱细雨，爱经济学人

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