Finance and economics | Europe’s economy
Even recession may not bring down euro-zone inflationIt is difficult to spot the peak when hiking in the fog. What is true in the Alps is just as true for policymakers who are struggling with inflation. In the euro zone, consumer prices in October were 10.7% higher than a year earlier. The European Central Bank (ecb) has increased interest rates by 0.75% for the second meeting in a row, as it dutifully follows the path trodden by America’s Federal Reserve. Officials very much hope the peak is around the corner.雾中徒步，难见峰顶。这句话不仅适用于阿尔卑斯，也适用于与通胀做斗争的决策者。在欧元区，10月消费者价格指数较去年同期上涨10.7%。欧洲央行已连续第二次将利率提高了0.75个百分点，跟在美联储身后亦步亦趋。官员们热切期盼通胀即将见顶。Optimists among them point out that the euro zone implemented no major fiscal stimulus after the covid-19 pandemic, unlike America, which means inflation has been driven by supply shocks and energy prices, rather than an overheating economy. Recent spending packages in Europe have sought to cushion the blow from eye-watering energy prices, not stimulate spending. In the second quarter of the year, consumption was less than 2% above the same period in 2019. In America it was 7%.一些乐观派指出，不同于美国，欧元区在新冠疫情后没有实施重大的财政刺激政策，这表明通胀是由供给冲击和能源价格驱动，而非经济过热。欧洲最近的支出计划致力于缓解高得超乎想象的能源价格所带来的冲击，而非为了刺激消费。今年第二季度，消费量与2019年同期相比增长了不到2%，而美国这一数字是7%。Moreover, sentiment indicators suggest the European economy is heading for recession. Wages have grown moderately, and there is little sign of a wage-price spiral. Current and future energy prices on wholesale markets have fallen from summer peaks. Bottlenecksaffecting everything from microchips to furniture have eased. Perhaps the peak really is nearby.此外，市场信心指数表明，欧洲经济在走向衰退。薪资增幅不大，没有工资-价格螺旋式上升的迹象。批发市场上能源现货和期货价格已从夏季峰值回落。影响一切（从微芯片到家具）的瓶颈已得到缓解。或许通胀真的即将见顶。Sadly, the optimism will probably prove unfounded. Lower energy prices take time to feed through to consumers. Most are still seeing whopping rises. France has the lowest inflation in the bloc, at 7.1% in October, in part because the government has capped gas and electricity prices. Next year, however, prices will be allowed to increase by 15%, adding to inflation. In Germany, many households have long-term contracts that are gradually renewed to reflect higher prices.遗憾的是，这种乐观可能会被证明是没有根据的。回落的能源价格需要一段时间才能传导至消费者手上。大多数消费者目前看见的仍然是高昂的价格。法国的通货膨胀率是欧盟中最低的，10 月份为 7.1%，部分原因是政府限制了天然气和电力价格。然而，明年价格将被允许上涨15%，这将加剧通货膨胀。在德国，许多家庭都签有（固定电价的）长期合同，而这些合同会陆陆续续以一个更高的价格续签。And though, in the glowing sun of a warm October, wholesale prices for energy dipped, the medium-term forecast is for a cold and dry winter, which means they will probably rise again. Worse still, Vladimir Putin may escalate the energy war.尽管在温暖的10月阳光普照下，能源批发价格下跌，但中期预测显示，今冬将遭遇寒冷而干燥的气候，这意味着能源批发价格可能会再次上涨。更糟糕的是，普京可能会让能源战升级。Energy and food prices comprise less than a third of the basket of goods and services used to measure inflation. But the trends in the rest of the basket are also worrying. Prices for services and goods other than food and energy increased by an annualised 6% over the past three months. Although energy prices may lie behind part of this shift—restaurants need heat, for instance—the size of the increase suggests inflation is spreading. As Chris Marsh of Exante, a research firm, notes, the situation looks unfortunately similar to that in America a few months ago.能源和食品价格在用于衡量通胀的一揽篮子商品和服务中所占比例不到三分之一。不过，其中其他东西的走势也令人担忧。在过去的三个月里，除食品和能源以外的服务和商品的价格其年化增长率达到6%。尽管其背后的部分原因可能是能源价格的增长，例如餐厅需要开暖气，但价格上涨的幅度表明，通胀正在蔓延。正如（专门跟踪全球资本流动的）研究公司 Exante Data的高级顾问克里斯•马尔什（Chris Marsh）指出的那样，不幸的是，现在的欧洲就是几个月前的美国。Wage rises are likely to add to inflation. So far, European pay has increased little. Unlike in America, six in ten workers have collective-bargaining agreements, which tend to run for a year or more—meaning it takes time for economic conditions to influence their pay. Trade-union negotiators have limited demands, aware that a wage-price spiral would come back to haunt them. But negotiators’ patience is beginning to wear thin. Germany’s public-sector unions will enter forthcoming negotiations seeking a raise of 10.5%.工资上涨可能会加剧通货膨胀。到目前为止，欧洲打工人的工资涨幅甚微。与美国不同，有六成欧洲打工人签订了集体劳动合同，这种合同往往持续一年或更长时间，这意味着他们的工资不会因为经济状况的变化而立即改变（而是需要时间由工会来谈判和签订合同）。工会谈判代表每次谈判的要求也不多，他们知道工资价格螺旋形上升最终也会造成自己的困扰。但谈判代表正逐渐失去耐性。德国的公共部门工会将参加即将举行的谈判，寻求提高10.5% 的工资。1. Collective bargaining agreements：对于作为工会成员的雇员，如果他们的雇主与相应工会订立了集体劳动合同或者是参与订立集体劳动合同的雇主联合会的成员，该集体劳动合同对该雇员具有效力。集体劳动合同的主要内容包括薪资、工作时间等劳动条件。工会在满足特定条件的情况下有权召集罢工以强调他们的诉求，比如提高工会成员的薪资。2. wage-price spiral：工资价格螺旋形上升是一个经济术语，用于描述劳动者工资上涨导致价格上涨的现象。具体表现为：劳动者工资上涨会增加可支配收入，从而增加对商品的需求，反过来推动商品价格上涨。而商品价格上涨又强化了工资上涨的趋势，给生产成本和商品价格带来进一步上涨的推力，从而形成一种持续性的“螺旋”式循环。在欧美国家，工资的确定是通过工会和雇主协会集体协商谈判而达成的协议。在集体谈判中，工会常用其他企业或部门从事同祥工作却有较高工资的例子要求雇主增加工资，即要求同工同酬，因此而导致工资的相互攀比，形成工资循环上涨的局面。The problem for bosses is that the labour market remains exceptionally tight. The share of firms reporting that staff shortages are limiting their production is near record highs in both the manufacturing and service sectors. One reason is the enormous backlog of orders from the pandemic. Manufacturing firms have on average more than five months of work on their order books, according to a recent survey, up from four before covid struck. Add to that the cohort of workers retiring each year in ageing countries such as Italy and Germany, and a recipe is in place for a tight labour market throughout 2023.对于企业老板而言，目前的劳动力市场依旧极度吃紧。无论是在制造业还是服务业，目前报告员工短缺影响他其生产力的企业数目接近历史最高水平。其中一个原因是新冠期间积压下来的订单。一项近期调查显示，制造业企业目前平均有超过五个月的积压订单，疫情前这一数字为四个月。此外，在意大利和德国等人口老龄化国家，每年都有大量工人退休，2023整年劳动力市场的前景都很不乐观。All of this means the peak in inflation is probably some way off. Nor will there be much relief at the top, for the descent will be similarly tricky to navigate. Energy prices should settle at a lower level next year, which will bring down headline inflation. But inflation in the rest of the economy may still be accelerating, limiting the immediate drop. Thus the fog will remain.综上来看，离通胀见顶或许尚有时日。即便通胀见顶，也很难长舒一口气，毕竟通胀回落之路依旧困难重重。明年，能源价格有望企稳回落，这将降低总体通胀水平。但是在其他经济领域，通胀或仍有鼎沸之势，总体通胀不太可能立刻改善。未来依旧有巨大的不确定性。Even a recession, if people expect it to be brief, may not tame inflation. In that case, the ecb would have to tighten the screws once again. “The Bundesbank in the 1970s didn’t even flinch when the economy weakened. They were successful in conquering inflation,” notes Mr Marsh. This time round, it may take something similar from the other central bank in Frankfurt.除非市场预期经济将陷入长期衰退，否则短暂的经济回调对控制通胀于事无补。这种情况下，欧洲央行只能继续收紧银根。“上世纪70年代，面对已经出现的经济下行，当时的德意志联邦银行仍然坚定继续加息，终于成功控制住了通胀”，马尔什说道。尽管时过境迁，但总部同在法兰克福的欧洲央行这次的药方可能将会是熟悉的味道。
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