Argentina’s economy

阿根廷经济

Force of circumstance

重压之下/形势所迫

In its death throes, Mauricio Macri’s government emulates its opponents

阿根廷毛里西奥•马克里政府在垂死挣扎中效仿对手

Argentina was not invited to the Bretton Woods conference in 1944 that created the imf, and it did not join until 1956. But it has been making its presence felt ever since. At the end of August a team from the imf visited Buenos Aires to assess the lie of the land before deciding whether to give Argentina’s government, led by Mauricio Macri, any more of the record $57bn loan (worth over 10% of Argentina’s 2018 gdp) agreed last year. But as the team left town, the landscape shifted.

国际货币基金组织（IMF）于1944年布雷顿森林会议成立，阿根廷未被邀请参加，直到1956年才加入IMF。但自此，阿根廷就一直“刷存在感”。8月底，在决定是否要继续发放去年协定的创纪录的570亿美元贷款（相当于阿根廷2018年全年GDP的10%还要多）余款前，IMF派出一个考察组访问首都布宜诺斯艾利斯，对（现总统）毛里西奥•马克里领导的阿根廷现状进行评估。但随着考察组的离开，情况变了。

注:

1. Bretton Woods conference布雷顿森林会议

1994年，在该会上确定了布雷顿森林货币体系（Bretton Woods system），指二战后以美元为中心的国际货币体系。虽然，因美元危机与美国经济危机的频繁爆发，以及制度本身不可解脱的矛盾性，该体系于1971年被尼克松政府宣告结束。但由于过去多年高度依赖美元贷款，同时外储薄弱的多个市场，依旧会受到美元相关的负面影响。其中，阿根廷就是一个典型。摘自百度百科

2. the lie of the land：

A. the features or characteristics of an area:地形，地貌；

B. the current situation：情态，事态；常常用来表达新人初来乍到，面对生疏的学习或工作环境，尚待了解各方面的形势和路数。

例句：I only joined the company a few weeks ago. I haven't really figured out the lie of the land yet. I've no idea who I can trust or who the most important people actually are.

It takes everyone a while to get to know the lie of the land when they start university. It's all new for everybody so it's bound to be a little confusing at first.

3. 2018年10月底，IMF批准增加阿根廷贷款总额至570亿美元左右，贷款计划在未来三年内拨付，是截至当时IMF历史上最大的一笔贷款。“其中150亿美元贷款已经在18年发放——附带了严格的条件，包括让阿根廷承诺2019年实现零赤字。”

链接如下:

http://www.xinhuanet.com//world/2018-09/28/c_129962218.htm

https://www.jumore.com/news/938936.html

Mr Macri’s government said it would delay $7bn-worth of repayments on short-term bills held by institutional investors and seek a rescheduling of over $50bn of longer-term debt. It would also request new, extended loans from the imf to help Argentina repay the money it already owes them. As the markets digested the news, the ground moved again. On September 1st the government imposed currency controls, preventing Argentines from buying more than $10,000 a month, forcing exporters to convert their earnings into pesos, and placing new restrictions on companies’ ability to buy foreign exchange.

马克里政府表示将推迟偿还机构投资者持有的70亿美元短期债券，并就超过500亿美元的长期债券偿付事宜进行重新协商；它还将要求IMF提供新的延期贷款以助阿根廷偿还现有债务。当市场仍在消化该则消息，另一头又有大动作。政府9月1日宣布实施货币管制，限定阿根廷个人每月不得购买超过1万美金，迫使出口商将收入兑换为比索；同时，对企业购买外汇也施加了新的限制。

“This is not a port we imagined we would reach,” said Hernán Lacunza, Mr Macri’s new finance minister. The president had, after all, cast off in precisely the opposite direction after coming to power in December 2015, seeking to remove many of the clumsy impediments to market forces imposed by his predecessor, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. Abolishing her currency controls and unifying Argentina’s exchange rate was one of his earliest, proudest successes. Now Argentina once again has a black market for dollars, just as it did under Ms Fernández.

现任总统马克里的新任财政部长埃尔南·拉昆萨（Hernán Lacunza）表示“这并不是我们曾想到达的港口（我们的初衷）”。毕竟，自2015年12月上台后，现任总统就精准地朝着反方向起航，以求摆脱由前任女总统克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯·基什内尔（Cristina Fernández de Kirchner）强加给市场的多重阻碍。废除货币管制和统一汇率双轨制曾是现任总统执政最初期实现，也是最引以为荣的功绩之一。而今，美元黑市再现，就如费尔南德斯执政时一样。

注：

1.cast off   离岸、抛弃、摆脱；

ie. The ship was scheduled to cast off at 8 p.m.

2. come to power  上台、掌权。同近义词有 take power

3. unify    v.  to bring together; combine  统一、整合

4. 汇率双轨制是指企业的出口收汇被分为两个部分，一部分必须按较低的官方汇率上缴国家，余下部分可按调剂市场汇率售出或可自行根据市场供求信号进口盈利商品。阿根廷的外汇管制使得企业和个人无法将比索转换成美元保值，形成汇率双轨制。2014年官定阿根廷比索兑美元名义汇率仅为8:1，黑市大约12:1。

The reason for this dramatic reversal of policy is an equally dramatic reversal of political fortunes. On August 11th Argentina held “primary” elections (which are contested by all parties and in which voting is universal and compulsory). Mr Macri lost decisively to an opposition ticket featuring Alberto Fernández, a veteran Peronist, as president and Ms Fernández as vice-president (the two are unrelated). The news that their victory in next month’s presidential election was now almost certain alarmed Argentina’s creditors, who feared they would fail to honour the country’s debts, and corral capital flows. The peso fell by 25%, the principal stockmarket index collapsed and the cost of insuring against default tripled. Neither sky-high interest rates nor the central bank’s sales of dollar reserves could arrest the currency’s fall. Since the government could not persuade foreigners to hold more pesos, it has been forced to stop Argentines buying too many dollars instead.

此项政策出现戏剧性反转的原因是政体命运的戏剧化逆转。8月11日，阿根廷举行了总统初选（所有党派都参与而且全民必须参与投票）。现任总统马克里得票率大幅落后于资深的庇隆主义者阿尔贝托·费尔南德斯（担任总统竞选人，而前总统费尔南德斯女士为其竞选搭档，两人并不相关）。关于他们将在下个月总统选举中获胜的消息现已几乎板上钉钉，令阿根廷债权人担忧的是，害怕他们会无法偿付国家债务以及控制资本流动。阿根廷比索暴跌25%，主要股票市场指数呈现断崖式下跌，而且违约保费成本涨到原来3倍。无论是极高的利息率还是央行出售美元储备的行动都不能阻止比索贬值。因为政府无法说服外国人持有更多的比索，所以只能被迫阻止国人购买大量美元。   

注：
1. Peronist 庇隆主义又称正义主义是阿根廷正义党创始人、前总统胡安·庇隆提出的一种属于“第三位置”的政治理念（主义），以国家复兴和民族解放为主要内容，同时主张中央集权。庇隆政府的特点就是混合了社团主义和社会福利措施。庇隆认为：“无论是资本主义还是共产主义都是已经过时了的制度。资本主义通过资本剥削人，而共产主义是通过国家剥削人，两者通过不同的制度同样损害人。若选择其中的任何一种制度，都不能为我国人民带来应得的福利，因此我们决定创立一个第三立场”。庇隆主义认为，第三位置学说的目标是实现人类社会中人的幸福，而达到这一目标的方法是协调物质主义、理想主义、个人主义和集体主义这几种力量，并以基督教的精神珍视每一种力量。

honour  v. to pay money owed 偿还债务

3. corral  v. to bring a group of people together and keep them in >控制

Even if Mr Fernández wins outright in October (avoiding a run-off election), he will not be sworn into office until December. But his words already have the power to move markets and shape the economy. His claim on August 30th that Argentina was in “virtual default” deepened the market sell-off (Standard & Poor’s, a rating agency, also declared that there had been a temporary, selective default on some of Argentina’s obligations). Creditors will not renegotiate their debts with Mr Macri’s lame-duck government, fearing that Mr Fernández might force bigger concessions later. The same worry may give pause to the imf. Why should it give billions of additional dollars to Argentina, when its next president accuses it of helping to create a “social catastrophe” of rising prices, unemployment and poverty?

即使费尔南德斯先生能在10月份压倒性地赢得大选(避免二轮选举)，他也要到12月份才能宣誓就职。但其言论已经具有影响市场和重塑经济的能量。8月30日，他声称阿根廷“实际上处于违约状态”的言论，加大了市场的抛售(评级机构标准普尔也宣布阿根廷的一些债务出现了暂时性的选择性违约)。债权人不会与马克里的跛脚政府就债务问题进行重新谈判，因为担心之后会被费尔南德斯迫使做出更大的让步。同样的担忧可能会让IMF踌躇不前。既然继任总统指责IMF助长了“社会灾难”——物价上涨、失业和贫困，那为什么还要向阿根廷提供剩余的数十亿美金贷款呢?

注：
1. virtual default 

延申阅读：https://www.ft.com/content/f440edca-ce3f-11e9-b018-ca4456540ea6

2. a run-off election复选，又叫二轮选举，是一种选举制度，共分两轮，只有第一轮的胜者才能进入下一轮。

Runoff voting can refer to: Two-round system, a voting system used to elect a single winner, whereby only two candidates from the first round continue to the second round, where one candidate will win.

3. Lame duck 跛脚鸭 鸭子走起路来一摇三摆，想快也快不了。再加上跛脚，那更是举步维艰，一筹莫展。在美国政界，常用lame duck来形容任期将届满的政治人物的窘境。

Advisers to Mr Fernández say his campaign rhetoric should not be taken too seriously. “Alberto is acting now as a candidate…appealing to the base; he will govern very differently,” says one of his inner circle. His chief economic adviser, Guillermo Nielsen, has published a more moderate ten-point agenda that leaves some room for optimism. It recognises the need for a budget surplus. And it envisages a “social pact” between the unions and business to tame inflation by moderating wage-claims and price increases. A Peronist government under Mr Fernández may find it easier to bring the unions into line than today’s government does. According to Federico Sturzenegger, the former governor of Argentina’s central bank, Mr Macri’s administration has eschewed that kind of dealmaking because it “did not want to sit the ‘old-politics players’ at the decision table”.

费尔南德斯的顾问表示竞选言论不应过于当真。一位来自继任总统核心团队的人员说到：“阿尔贝托现在是一名候选人……言论为了吸引基层选民；之后他将会有不同的执政方式。”其首席经济顾问吉列尔莫•尼尔森(Guillermo Nielsen)发表了一份含有十点要义的纲领，言辞更为温和，为乐观态势留有一丝余地。纲领中表明预算盈余的必要性；同时设想和各工会以及企业之间达成一项“社会协议”，通过缓和工资要求和物价上涨来抑制通货膨胀。费尔南德斯领导的庇隆主义政府可能会发现统一工会要比当下的政府容易点。根据前央行行长费德里科•斯特辛格(Federico Sturzenegger)的说法：马克里政府一直回避这类交易，因为“不想让‘老派政客’坐在决策桌旁”。

The next government may even consider much-needed reforms of labour laws and welfare entitlements, according to Emmanuel Alvarez Agis, another adviser who served under Néstor Kirchner, Ms Fernández’s late husband and predecessor as president. “The future depends on building coalitions, for change, not governing just from one side or the other,” he has said.

另一位顾问艾曼纽尔·阿尔瓦雷斯·阿吉斯（Emmanuel Alvarez Agis）表示：下一届政府甚至可能会考虑迫切需要的劳动法和福利待遇改革。“未来取决于为改变而建立的联盟关系，而不是不同政治派别的执政权。”阿吉斯曾供职于女总统克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯已故丈夫——前阿根廷总统内斯托尔·基什内尔（Néstor Kirchner）。

Mr Nielsen says the next government will negotiate with the imf, rather than walk away from it. Having already borrowed almost 80% of the $57bn on offer, Argentina will need new loans from the fund to help it repay the old ones. Mr Nielsen has also described China as a potential “financial life jacket”. Ms Fernández, who has remained remarkably quiet during the campaign, is known to covet Chinese investment, which might be attracted to Argentina’s infrastructure, 5g networks and renewable-energy projects.

尼尔森先生表示下一届政府会与IMF进行沟通，而不是回避与IMF的问题。阿根廷已收到承诺的570亿美元中的80％贷款，但还需要用余下的新贷款来偿还旧款。尼尔森先生还将中国描述为潜在的“金融救生衣”。众所周知，在竞选期间保持缄默的费尔南德斯女士垂涎来自中国的投资，表示中国的资本可能会被吸引到阿根廷基础设施、5g网络以及可再生能源项目领域。

If that is the extent of Ms Fernández’s influence on the next government, foreign investors will be relieved. And so will some Argentines. “Many of us could never vote for Cristina and Alberto Fernández,” says a retired woman, waiting at her bank this week to change pesos into dollars. “But who can trust any of our politicians after all this?...I trust only my purse.”

如果这就是费尔南德斯女士给下一届政府带来的影响，那么外国投资者就能松一口气了。一些阿根廷人也能。一位在银行等待兑换美元的退休女士说：“我们大多数人可能从不会投票给克里斯蒂娜和阿尔贝托·费尔南德斯。但是，经历了这一切后，谁还敢信任任何一位政客呢？......我只相信自己的钱包。”

翻译组：

Vivian，女，金融硕士，爱潜水爱运动

Nana，女，南开世界经济硕士，努力学习经济学和英语中

Gloria，女，经济学在读，爱健身爱电影爱古怪新奇的事物

May ，男， 跨界财经、法律、政治，热恋越野跑，迷恋经济学人

校对组：

Emily，食物链底端金融民工，经济学人粉丝

Jessie Lulu, 金融从业者，爱阳光，爱细雨，爱经济学人

Martina，女，谷歌广告从业者，爱电影爱生活，爱金融经济