经济学人财经||汇率操纵

Currency manipulation 

汇率操纵

Fishing expedition 

蓄意盘查

Defences against competitive devaluation could backfire

防范竞争性贬值可能适得其反

The southern shrimp alliance, an industry association based in Florida, is angling for tariffs. It has tried repeatedly to have foreign competitors harpooned with duties. Now some new opportunities have surfaced. The Department of Commerce is proposing a rule enabling tariffs on imports from currency manipulators. Crustacean-catchers are keen.

南方虾业联盟，位于美国佛罗里达州的一个产业协会，一直想方设法谋求关税支持, 该协会曾反复尝试让海外的产虾竞争对手被征关税。近日，又有新的机会浮出水面。美国商务部正在草拟一份允许向汇率操纵国的进口商品征收关税的法案。捕手们开始蠢蠢欲动。

注：

1. Angle for: 指用手段谋取（固定搭配）

Angle v.：Seek something desired by indirectly prompting someone to offer it.--Oxford dictionary 为了想要的东西，间接用手段（促使别人提供）而得到。--牛津字典

例句：Ralph had begun to angle for an invitation.

拉尔夫开始千方百计想要得到邀请。

2. Harpooned with：（被叉住了）寓指很多产虾的海外竞争对手都被南方虾业联盟以反倾销罪名增加了关税。

此处 harpoon v.：用鱼叉叉，用鱼叉捕获

Eg: 2003年美国暖水虾案

2003年12月31日，美国虾贸易临时行动委员会向美国商务部提出反倾销调查申诉，要求美国商务部对原产于中国、越南、泰国、印度、巴西和厄瓜多尔的冷冻和罐装虾进行反倾销调查。

在反倾销申诉实际提起之前，申诉方之一的南方虾业联盟（SSA）就已经花费了数月的时间向美国政界和媒体宣传美国海洋捕虾业面临的危机、强调进口虾是导致墨西哥湾捕虾者遭受重创的原因；他们将进口虾描绘成为一大社会公害，而实行高额关税、限制进口则被称作“除害良药”。当时，这种消息不断出现于报纸、社论、地方官员演说和国会议员的讲话中，申诉方试图通过这样的方式，营造对进口虾“人人喊打”的氛围。相比之下，作为进口商和销售商的组织，美国海产品经销商协会（ASDA）尽管也在同时期内做出了努力，争取各界能够客观地看待国内产业面临的问题，甚至曾阻止过几次案件的提起，但由于对方的持续运作，最终南方虾业联盟的起诉获得了美国商务部的支持。

3. Surface v. 出现，浮现----牛津字典

a. Come to people's attention; become apparent. 出现，变得明显

b. Informal (of a person) appear after having been asleep. 某人睡醒

例句：It was almost 11.30 before Anthony surfaced

安东尼睡到11点半才醒。

American businesses disgruntled by what they see as distorted exchange rates may soon have more weapons at hand. After weeks of fulmination by President Donald Trump on Twitter about countries that keep their currencies artificially weak to America’s detriment, financial analysts are speculating that the Treasury might use its Exchange Stabilisation Fund (esf) to weaken the dollar. Elizabeth Warren, a Democratic presidential hopeful, has also called for the dollar to be managed to promote exports, referring to proposals by Fred Bergsten and Joseph Gagnon of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a think-tank.

被美国贸易业视为扭曲的汇率让他们很是不爽，但可能很快就有更多的应对武器。针对一些国家蓄意操纵本国货币对美元贬值从而使美国遭受损失，特朗普在推特上进行了长达数周的严厉谴责。在这之后，金融分析师们推测美国财政部可能会使用外汇稳定基金使美元贬值。有望成为民主党总统的伊丽莎白·沃伦，在参阅了智库彼得森国际经济研究所弗雷德·伯格斯坦和约瑟夫·贾格南的提案后也提倡调整美元以刺激出口。

注：

4. disgruntled by (此处被动语态)

Disgruntle: Make (someone) angry or dissatisfied. 使……不高兴，使愠怒

例句：Nothing disgruntles anyone more than the feeling they are being cheated。

没有什么比被骗更让人感到愤怒了。

The chatter is odd in one respect: other countries’ currency manipulation does not seem to be the reason for the dollar’s strength. Although an imf report published on July 17th said that the dollar was overvalued by 6-12%, it also said that foreign-exchange intervention had been playing “a much more muted role in recent years”. America’s loose fiscal policy—and the tighter stance of countries like Germany and the Netherlands—are more obvious culprits.

这种唠叨在一个方面显得有些站不住脚:其他国家对汇率操纵似乎不是美元持续走强的原因。尽管国际货币基金组织在7月17日发布的一份报告中指出，美元被高估了6-12%，但该报告也指出，外汇干预“近年来带来的影响要缓和得多”。美国宽松的财政政策，以及德国和荷兰等国的紧缩立场才是更显而易见的推手。

注：

5.紧缩性财政政策：国家通过财政分配活动抑制或压缩社会总需求的一种政策行为。它往往是在已经或将要出现社会总需求大大超过社会总供给的趋势下采取的。它的典型形式是通过财政盈余压缩政府支出规模。因为财政收入构成社会总需求的一部分，而财政盈余意味着将一部分社会总需求冻结不用，从而达到压缩社会总需求的目的。

扩展阅读：IMF--美元被高估了6%-12%，德国、荷兰和韩国等均拥有巨额经常账户顺差https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1639382639341571058&wfr=spider&for=pc

However misdirected the current ire, the multilateral system for restraining currency manipulation is indeed toothless. In 2007 the imf refrained from declaring China a currency cheat, although it was running a current-account surplus of 10% of gdp and buying around $2bn in dollar-denominated assets each business day. Preparing for a future bout of competitive devaluation might not be a bad idea.

尽管当前的愤怒被误导，但遏制汇率操纵的多边体系确实没有多大作用。2007年，中国经常账户盈余占gdp的10%，而且每个交易日购买约20亿以美元计价的资产，但国际货币基金组织并没有宣称中国为恶意汇率操纵国。为未来新一轮竞争性贬值做好准备或许不是一个坏主意。

注：

6. current-account surplus：经常账户盈余

7. refrained from：Refrain:~ sb/sth (from sth/from doing sth)to stop sb/sth from doing sth, especially by using physical force （尤指用武力）制止，阻止，管制

扩展阅读：全球金融危机后，经常账户总顺差和逆差占全球GDP的比重从2007年的约6%大幅降至2013年的3.5%左右，2018年占全球GDP的比重为3%

https://www.17suzao.com/news/detail-9571.html

But the proposals floating around Washington would be ripe for abuse. The Commerce Department’s would allow its officials to declare a country a manipulator even if the Treasury had not. Companies seeking an unfair edge over foreign competitors would no doubt lobby hard.

但是在华盛顿流传的议案可能很容易被滥用。商务部将允许其官员公布汇率操纵国名单，即使财政部并没有允许。美国公司极力寻找相较于外国竞争者的不公平优势，毫无疑问会奋力游说。

The measures suggested by Mr Bergsten and Mr Gagnon would grant Mr Trump huge financial firepower—dangerous, given his penchant for using whatever weapon is to hand to fight his trade wars. They think the Treasury should be allowed to use the ESF to neutralise currency intervention by other countries with equal and opposite purchases, thus deterring the intervention in the first place. But to be credible it would need hundreds of billions of dollars at its disposal. Its current portfolio is around $95bn, of which $23bn is in dollars.

伯格斯坦和贾格南提议的措施将赋予特朗普强大的金融火力，这很危险，因为川普倾向于不惜使用任何武器去打贸易战。他们认为财政部应该被允许使用外汇稳定基金来抵消其他国家买卖货币导致的汇率干预，从而在第一时间阻止干预。但想要这项措施有效实施需要动用数千亿美元。外汇稳定基金目前的投资组合金额约950亿美元，其中230亿是美元资产。

注：

8. penchant：a liking for, an enjoyment of, or a habit of doing something, especially something that other people might not like n.嗜好,倾向

penchant for sth/doing sth 倾向于某物/某事

9. hand to do sth 着手做某事

10. neutralise：to stop something from having an effect v.抵消，使……无效

11. equal and opposite purchases 举例：假定某个中央银行正在试图使本币对美元贬值,它首先用本币购买美元,增加本币供给量。接着再通过销售以本币表示的政府债券换取本币，“冲抵”增加的本币供给量,从而使本币供给恢复到原有水平。总的结果是以本币表示的债券供给量增加。如果资产不是完全可替代的,债券供给量增加会提高它们的风险溢价,从而导致汇率贬值。

扩展阅读：美国、英国和日本都是由财政部负责汇率政策和主导外汇市场操作。美联储有权自主进行外汇市场操作，并形成了与财政部协作的传统，但美联储并不负责汇率政策，其参与外汇市场操作主要是配合美国财政部；英格兰银行也可进行外汇干预，但是只是出于货币政策目的，汇率政策及相应的外汇市场操作则由英国财政部负责。欧盟的外汇市场操作全部由欧洲央行出资并执行，但是决策是由欧盟经济和财政部长理事会做出。日本的汇率政策和外汇市场操作则由财务省负责，日本银行无权自主进行外汇市场操作。在执行层面，美国、欧盟、英国和日本的外汇市场操作都是由中央银行执行。

Moreover, unilateral action might lead other central banks to retaliate. Mark Sobel, a former Treasury official who managed the esf, worries that a currency conflict might even push the dollar up, if investors scurried for safety into dollar-denominated assets. Stephen Englander of Standard Chartered, a bank, warns American policymakers to “think about how you’re going to feel the morning after”. Intervention means buying unpopular currencies. Mr Bergsten and Mr Gagnon argue that their scheme could make the Treasury money as undervalued currencies rise. But negative yields on European and Japanese debt make losses at least as plausible.

此外，美国单方面实施该措施可能导致其他国家的央行进行报复。管理外汇稳定基金的前财政部官员马克索贝尔担心，如果投资者使用以美元计价的资产进行避险的话，货币争端甚至可能推动美元上涨。渣打银行的斯蒂芬•英格兰德警告美国的政策制定者“想想你在第二天早上醒来会不会后悔”。干预意味着购买不受欢迎的货币。伯格斯坦和贾格南先生认为，他们的计划可能会使财政部的资金随着被低估的货币一样上涨。但目前欧洲和日本债务的负收益率使损失至少看起来似乎还算合理。

注：

12.  retaliate 报复（例句：The retaliation tariff is also like this. 报复性关税也是这样）

13.  scurried for 避难（例：scurried for shelter 到庇护所避难）

14.  as plausible 似乎有道理（例句：But growth in some parts of the world and not others is just as plausible as growth all over the place.   但是世界上一些 区域 的发展看似确实带动了全球经济的发展 ）

One more reason for caution is the potential for further harming an already-fragile multilateral system. Previous American administrations considered tariffs on imports from countries manipulating their currencies, arguing that an artificially weak exchange rate amounted to an export subsidy. But they held back, understanding that such action would break the World Trade Organisation’s rules. A reversal would invite legal challenge, and perhaps retaliatory tariffs. The bellicose Mr Trump, however, would be unlikely to mind.

需要谨慎实行的另一个理由是该举措会进一步损害已经很脆弱的多边体系。以前的美国政府考虑对操纵本国货币的国家征收进口关税，认为通过人为操作压低的汇率相当于出口补贴。但是他们认为采取这样的行动将打破世界贸易组织（WTO）的规则，所以并没有真正的实施。一个反转也许会引发法律问题和报复性关税，然而好战的特朗普先生应该不太会介意这些问题。

注：

15.  export subsidy 出口补贴：是指一国政府为了鼓励出口，在出口商品时给予本国出口厂商以现金津贴或财政上的优惠，从而降低出口商品的价格，提高出口商品的国际竞争能力。

16.   held back隐瞒；退缩；抑制；阻止

例句：Unless this sector delivers growth, the economy as a whole will be held back.

这一部分如果不增长，整体经济就会被拖后腿。

翻译组： 

Vivian，女，金融硕士，爱潜水爱运动

Gloria，女，经济学在读，爱健身爱电影爱古怪新奇的事物

May ，男， 跨界财经、法律、政治，热恋越野跑，迷恋经济学人

Ashley，女 ，金融硕士，爱宠物 爱英语，爱旅游，经济学人粉丝

校对组：

Emily，食物链底端金融民工，经济学人粉丝

Jessie Lulu, 金融从业者，爱阳光，爱细雨，爱经济学人