银行ICU，通胀KTV，先救哪个？| 经济学人财经

Leaders | The great balancing act

平衡大业

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Leaders | The great balancing act

平衡大业

Central banks face an excruciating trade-off

央行进退维艰

注释：

1.Excruciating：causing great pain or anguish

Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/excruciating

2.Trade-off n. 1）a balancing of factors all of which are not attainable at the same time；2）a giving up of one thing in return for another

They have to choose between financial instability and high inflation. It wasn’t meant to be that way

各大央行必须在维持金融稳定和对抗通胀之间做出取舍。然而这并非初衷。

The job of central bankers is to keep banks stable and inflation low. Today they face an enormous battle on both fronts. The inflation monster is still untamed, and the financial system looks precarious.

央行的职责是保持银行业稳定和低通胀。如今，央行在两方面都面临着巨大挑战：通胀尚未被遏制，金融体系似乎也岌岌可危。

注释：

Precarious：1) dependent on chance circumstances, unknown conditions, or uncertain developments adj.依靠机会的；2）characterized by a lack of security or stability that threatens with danger adj.不稳定的；不稳固的

Stubbornly high inflation led the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on March 22nd, less than a week after the European Central Bank raised rates, too. The Fed acted days after three midsized American banks had collapsed and Credit Suisse, a grand old Swiss bank with more than SFr500bn ($545bn) in assets, suffered a wounding run that ended in a shotgun wedding with its Swiss rival, ubs. Bankers led by Jamie Dimon, the boss of JPMorgan Chase, are trying to shore up First Republic, the next teetering domino.

居高不下的通胀迫使美联储于3月22日加息25个基点，而就在不到一周前，欧洲央行也进行了加息。就在美联储加息的前几天，美国三家中型银行相继倒闭，资产超5000亿瑞士法郎（约5450亿美元）的大型老牌瑞士银行瑞信（Credit Suisse）在遭遇挤兑后最终与其竞对银行瑞银（UBS）“奉旨成婚”。以摩根大通 (JPMorgan Chase) 老板杰米·戴蒙 (Jamie Dimon) 为首的银行家们正试图挽救第一信托银行 (First Republic)，以防其沦为下一块倒下的多米诺骨牌。

注释：

1.three midsized American banks had collapsed: 1) 专注于加密货币行业的Silvergate银行，是美国第一家遭遇财务困难的银行机构，并于今年3月8日宣布因贷款组合损失惨重而终止运营。2) 硅谷银行; 3) 总部位于纽约的签名银行（Signature Bank）

Source: https://chinese.aljazeera.net/economy/2023/3/24/%E7%BE%8E%E5%9B%BD%E5%9B%9B%E5%AE%B6%E9%93%B6%E8%A1%8C%E5%80%92%E9%97%AD%E8%83%8C%E5%90%8E%E7%9A%84%E6%95%85%E4%BA%8B

2.Credit Suisse:瑞士瑞信银行原名为瑞士信贷，2006年正式更名瑞信。总部位于瑞士苏黎世，是全球第五大财团，瑞士第二大银行（仅次于UBS瑞士联合银行）。2023年3月19日，瑞士联邦政府当地时间19日宣布，瑞信将被瑞银集团（UBS）收购。

Source:https://wiki.mbalib.com/wiki/%E7%91%9E%E5%A3%AB%E7%91%9E%E4%BF%A1%E9%93%B6%E8%A1%8C

延伸阅读1：《瑞信危机背后的三个关键问题》

Source: https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/business-65035565

延伸阅读2：《瑞银同意收购瑞信 “避险”还是“冒险”？》

Source: http://www.news.cn/world/2023-03/21/c_1211739781.htm

3.Shotgun wedding: 1)  a marriage forced or required because of pregnancy, called also shotgun wedding 2) a forced union: a spate of brokerage mergers … hastily arranged shotgun marriages—John Brooks

Source:https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/shotgun%20marriage#:~:text=1,called%20also%20shotgun%20wedding

4.Shore up：1) to support (something) or keep (something) from falling by placing something under or against it; 2) to support or help (something)

5.First Republic: 第一信托银行，是一家美国银行，提供零售银行、商业银行、信托和财富管理服务，主要面向低风险、高净值客户。

Source: https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%80%E4%BF%A1%E8%A8%97%E9%8A%80%E8%A1%8C_(%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B)

延伸阅读：《美国11家大银行对First Republic Bank联合注资300亿美元》

Source: https://cn.wsj.com/articles/%E7%BE%8E%E5%9B%BD11%E5%AE%B6%E5%A4%A7%E9%93%B6%E8%A1%8C%E5%AF%B9first-republic-bank%E8%81%94%E5%90%88%E6%B3%A8%E8%B5%84300%E4%BA%BF%E7%BE%8E%E5%85%83-5d1f7bbd

The trouble is that central bankers’ two goals look increasingly contradictory. All but the biggest American banks are suffering from the consequences of higher interest rates. Dearer money has reduced the value of their securities portfolios and has made it likelier that depositors will flee to big banks, or to money-market funds. Cutting interest rates would help the banks; so does backstopping the financial system. But either option would further stimulate the economy and make inflation worse.

问题在于央行的两个目标貌似越来越矛盾。除美国最大的几家银行以外，其他银行都在承受加息带来的后果。利率上涨导致这些银行所持有的证券价值下降，并使储户更有可能流向大银行或货币市场基金。降息将有助于银行业，兜底金融体系同样利好银行。但两者都会进一步刺激经济并加剧通胀。

注释:

backstop: something at the back serving as a stop

Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/backstop

It was not meant to be like this. New rules introduced after the financial crisis of 2007-09 were intended to stop bank failures from threatening the economy and the financial system. That, in turn, was supposed to leave monetary policy free to focus on growth and inflation. But the plan has not worked, obliging central banks to perform an excruciating balancing act.

事与愿违。2007-09年金融危机后出台的新规原本旨在防止银行倒闭危及经济和金融系统。新规本应解放货币政策，使其能够聚焦如何支持经济增长和应对通胀问题。但该计划并未奏效，反而迫使央行艰难地寻求平衡。

注释：

1.new rules introduced after the financial crisis of 2007-09：08年金融危机后，美国制定了一系列政策以稳定金融体系，其中包括接手联邦住房贷款抵押机构房利美和房地美，1820亿美元救助美国国际集团（AIG），批准7000亿美元（问题资产救助计划）用于救助银行等。

来源：《金融危机10年祭：世界五大经济的当年和今日》

https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/business-45485294

Major Regulations Following the 2008 Financial Crisis

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/063015/what-are-major-laws-acts-regulating-financial-institutions-were-created-response-2008-financial.asp 

2.in turn: 中文常见翻译“反过来”，英英释义为’(1) in succession; (2) used to convey that an action, process, or situation is the result of a previous one (Oxford Languages via Google)’，因此除了“依次”之意，第二种用法隐含因果，中文根据上下文有不同的译法。

3.balancing act: an attempt to handle or deal with two or more things (such as obligations) at one time so as to satisfy often competing requirements (Merriam-Webster Dictionary).

Consider the humbling of Credit Suisse. Regulators are supposed to be able to “resolve” a failing bank in an orderly fashion over a weekend by following a plan to wipe out shareholders and write down convertible bonds (or convert them to equity). But Credit Suisse’s demise has sowed uncertainty and confusion. Instead of winding down the bank, Swiss officials pressed ubs to buy it, providing generous taxpayer-backed loans and guarantees to make the deal work and even passing a law to make the terms watertight.

想想瑞信的惨剧。通过清算股东和减记可转换债券（或将其转换为股权），监管机构本来能够在一个周末的时间里有序地“处置”一家濒临破产的银行。但瑞信的退场方式却埋下了不确定和混乱的种子。瑞士政府没有选择逐步关闭瑞信，而是敦促瑞银对其收购，并为促成交易而提供由纳税人买单的巨额贷款和担保，甚至通过了一项法律来确保这一协议万无一失。

注释：

1.in a orderly fashion: in a calm, well-behaved / organized manner (Farlex Dictionary of Idioms).

2.wipe out shareholders and write down convertible bonds: wipe out - to destroy completely, write down - to reduce the book value (Merriam-Webster Dictionary).

拓展阅读：《伦敦商学院教授复盘瑞信收购案》

https://www.yicai.com/news/101710680.html 

《债券投资者闹翻了，瑞信收购案170亿 AT1债券要先于股票归零》

https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684424 

《市场被“债券减记”吓一跳，欧盟、英国监管方发文试图挽回投资者信心》

http://www.stcn.com/article/detail/822515.html 

瑞信要么筹资，要么将面临解体

https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20230319A02R2V00

3.wind down: to cause a gradual lessening of usually with the intention of bringing to an end (Merriam-Webster Dictionary).

4.watertight: leaving no possibility of misconstruction or evasion (Merriam-Webster Dictionary).

Although regulators wrote off the bank’s convertible bonds, shareholders still received $3.2bn, upending the expected preference of bondholders over stockholders. One reading of the bond contracts’ small print is that this inversion was allowed. Even though regulators in Britain and the eu were quick to insist they would respect the usual order of creditors, the Swiss departure from the norm has inevitably shaken investors’ faith, creating doubt about what might happen with the next bank failure.

虽然监管机构减记了瑞信发行的可转换债券，但其股东仍获得32亿美元，这颠覆了债券持有人清偿优先权高于股东的惯例。有一种说法是，这种颠覆是为债券合同细则规定所允许的。尽管英国和欧盟的监管机构很快便坚称将尊重债权人常规的清偿顺序，可瑞士的背离常规之举不可避免地动摇了投资者的信心，引发了对未来银行倒闭的担忧。

注释：

small print: (chiefly British) the part of an agreement or document that contains important details and that is sometimes written in small letters (Merriam-Webster Dictionary).

拓展阅读：《瑞信AT1债券完全减计是早已埋好的雷？》

http://www.21jingji.com/article/20230322/herald/d411e94d381cf748b684a555ae2089e0.html 

America’s improvised rescue of all the depositors of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank could also have a corrosive effect. Deposits above a cap of $250,000 per customer are not formally insured by the federal government. But nobody is sure which larger depositors would be bailed out if a bank failed. Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Fed, said on March 22nd that depositors “should assume” they are safe. The same day Janet Yellen, the treasury secretary, said expanding insurance to all depositors is not under consideration. Meanwhile, the Fed has lent $165bn through its newly generous lending schemes, which shield banks from the risks of holding long-dated securities.

美国对硅谷银行（Silicon Valley Bank ）和签名银行（Signature Bank ）所有储户的紧急营救也可能产生负面效果。要知道，根据美国联邦存款保险法的正式条文，每个存款账户的最高赔偿限额为25万美元，超出部分不予赔付。但没人确定，如果一家银行倒闭，哪些大储户将得到救助。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）3月22日说，储户“应该假定”自己是安全的。同一天，财政部长珍妮特·耶伦（Janet Yellen）表示，并不考虑将保险扩大到所有储户。与此同时，美联储通过其新的贷款计划，大方借出了1650亿美元，使得银行不必经受持有长期证券的风险。

As we published this, it looked as if First Republic would survive without more state intervention. Nonetheless, the combination of banks’ travails and regulatory uncertainty could yet harm the economy.

在我们发布此文时，第一信托银行似乎在没有更多国家干预的情况下还能生存。然而，银行的困境加上监管的不确定性可能会损害经济。

One source of pain could be America’s small and midsized banks. Those with less than $250bn in assets account for about half of all banking assets and 80% of loans for commercial property, a sector that has been vulnerable since the pandemic (see Finance & economics section). If smaller banks continue to lose deposits or if they need to raise capital because investors or regulators doubt their safety, then they could limit the loans they make, slowing economic growth and inflation.

痛苦的其中一个来源可能是美国的中小型银行。那些资产少于2500亿美元的银行拥有所有银行总资产的一半，商业地产贷款量占总量的80%，而商业地产行业自新冠大流行以来，一直很脆弱（见本期“金融和经济”部分）。如果较小规模的银行继续面临储户流失的情况，或者因投资者或监管机构怀疑其不够安全而需要筹集资金，那么这些小型银行可能会限制其贷款发放量，从而减缓经济增长和通货膨胀。

Another cause for concern is credit markets. The extra yields paid by the riskiest firms to borrow have risen and in some markets credit seems to be drying up. Worries about tighter financial conditions have led markets to pare back their bets on high inflation even as they have priced in interest-rate cuts.

另一个担忧源自信贷市场。风险最高的公司为借款支付的额外收益率已经上升，并且在某些市场上，信贷似乎正逐渐枯竭。对金融状况收紧的担忧导致市场削减对高通胀的押注，尽管对降息的预期其实此前已经体现在市场状况中了。

注释：

price in：计价，在金融行业的专业术语里面 price in 是指某些消息已经被市场消化而导致的价格不动或者反弹。

As they weigh this precarious economic outlook, central banks must also be cautious about the signals they send. Because they regulate banks, they have special insight into the health of the financial sector. One reason the Fed was right to raise rates this week was that a sharp u-turn would have caused panic about what the central bank knew that markets didn’t.

在权衡这种不稳定的经济前景时，央行还必须对其发出的信号保持谨慎。因为它们监管着银行，所以对金融部门的健康状况有着特殊的洞察力。美联储本周继续加息的做法之所以正确，部分原因在于180度的大转弯会引发恐慌，是不是央行知道什么市场不知道的事情。

Where to go from here? The essential aim is to fix the regulatory regime, so that central banks remain free to fight inflation. A big task is to revisit the measures that ensure one bank failure does not spill over into the next. If need be, policymakers must be able to recapitalise a failing bank by writing down bonds or converting them to equity. And it should be clear that shares will first be written off entirely.

那么现在该何去何从呢？最基本的目标是修正监管制度，以便央行可以自由地对抗通货膨胀。一个艰巨的任务是重新审视确保一家银行的倒闭不会波及另一家银行的措施。如果需要，政策制定者必须能够通过债券减记或者债转股来对倒闭银行进行资本重组。并且要明白，首先应该完全注销股票。

In America the appeal of insuring all depositors is that they then have no incentive to flee from smaller banks. But the real problem is lax capital rules for banks with less than $700bn in assets and inadequate planning for the failures of banks with under $250bn. Offering universal deposit insurance without fixing those problems would encourage excessive risk-taking. Banks would remain fragile yet be freed from any scrutiny by large depositors.

在美国，为所有储户投保的吸引力在于，投保后储户没有动机逃离小银行。但是，真正的问题在于，针对资产不足7000亿美元的银行，资本政策比较宽松，以及对于资产不足2500亿美元的银行，破产规划不充分。在解决这些问题前，提供全覆盖的存款保险将会滋生更多冒险行为。如此一来，银行将依旧脆弱不堪，而且还不会继续被大储户紧盯监督。

Don’t look down

不要凝视深渊

Until the banks are fixed, monetary policymakers have no choice but to take into account the dangers they pose to the economy. The Fed must scrutinise the lending behaviour of affected banks and build it into its economic forecasts, and also keep a close eye on credit markets. It would be a mistake to stop fighting inflation to preserve banks. But inflation also needs to be brought down in a controlled manner, and not as a result of the chaos of a financial crisis and the economic agonies it would bring. Central bankers already faced a narrow path to success. The ravines on either side of it have become deeper.

在银行问题解决前，货币政策制定者别无他选，只能考虑银行可能带给经济的危害。美联储必须严格审查受影响银行的贷款行为，将其纳入经济预测，同时密切关注信贷市场。为保全银行而停止对抗通胀不是明智之举。但是降低通胀也应通过可控的方式进行，而非放任金融危机引发混乱、重创经济，继而才得到低通胀的结果。对央行官员们来说，通往成功之路很是狭窄，而道路两旁则是日渐狰狞的深渊。

翻译组：

Eva，寻路中，偶尔怀念，时常向前

Martina，女，爱电影爱生活，爱金融经济

Helen，女，金融资管，努力成为六边形战士ing

Humi，女，学习财经的金融小白，不负韶华，平视世界

Summer，女，QE在职，梦想能仗走天涯 翻译/音乐 /健康