经济学人财经 || 秃鹫基金 V 僵尸企业

Distressed debt

困境债务

Vultures v zombies

秃鹫基金 v 僵尸企业

Funds that bet on failing companies are desperately waiting for a downturn

押注于破产公司的基金正急切地等待经济低迷的到来

On November 4th the share price of Kier Group, a troubled British builder, fell by nearly 10% on reports that banks were trying to offload its debt at a steep discount. The rumor remains unconfirmed—sources close to the firm and one of its biggest lenders dispute the claim—but investors may have felt a sense of déjà vu all the same. After the sudden downfall of Carillion and Interserve, Kier is Britain’s third construction giant to face a battle for survival in less than two years. And each time the groups’ fortunes have worsened, hedge funds eager to snap up their debt at bargain prices have begun to circle.

11月4日，陷入困境的英国建筑公司奇尔集团（Kier Group）的股价下跌了近10%，因有报道称银行正试图以大幅折价出售其债务。虽然此传言尚未得到证实，消息人灵通士及公司最大的债权人之一也对这一说法提出了质疑，但投资者可能已经有了似曾相识的感觉。在卡里利恩(Carillion)和Interserve的突然垮台后，奇尔（Kier）成为英国在不到两年时间里第三个面临生存之战的建筑巨头。每当该集团的财务状况恶化时，急于低价抢购它们债务的对冲基金就会开始在他们周围盘旋。

注：

1. offload

及物动词 If you offload something that you do not want, you get rid of it by giving it or selling it to someone else. 清理; 转卖

2. déjà vu

法语，不可数名词 Déjà vu is the feeling that you have already experienced the things that are happening to you now. 似曾经历过的感觉；似曾相识

The sense of déjà vu was overwhelming.

似曾经历过的感觉非常强烈。

To me, this conjured déjà vu: Where had I seen this before?

这一景象让我觉得似曾相识：我以前在哪里见过？

3.扩展阅读:

【英国政府最大合同建筑商：这家百年历史的建筑公司，是如何破产的】

 https://xw.qq.com/cmsid/20190221A05NRX00?f=newdc

Funds that buy “distressed” debt, which typically yields ten percentage points or more over Treasuries, are becoming familiar villains. They pounced on Thomas Cook, a travel group, and pg&e, a Californian utility, shortly before they went bust this year. They tend to circle around ailing oil firms and shops disrupted by e-commerce, notes Christine Farquhar of Cambridge Associates, an investment firm. And they snap up portfolios of dud loans from banks. If their target ends up recovering, they pocket big profits. If it does not, they often gain regardless, as they are usually first in line for liquidation proceeds.

那些通过购买困境债务，来赚取收益率比美国国债高出10个百分点或更多的基金公司们，正逐渐成为大家所熟悉的反派。就在今年，他们对即将破产的旅游集团托迈酷客（Thomas Cook）和加州公共设施太平洋煤气电力公司（PG&E）进行了突袭。投资公司——剑桥联合公司(Cambridge Associates)的克里斯汀•法夸尔(Christine Farquhar)指出，他们总是盯着那些因电子商务而陷入困境的石油公司和商店。同时还抢购银行的不良贷款组合。如果他们的这些囊中之物最后恢复运转，他们便能大赚一笔。如果没有恢复，他们仍可以捞一笔，因为他们通常是排在清算列表的首位。

注：
1.go bust 破产

If they go bust, we all lose.

如果他们破产，我们共担损失。

2.snap up抢购

动词词组 If you snap something up, you buy it quickly because it is cheap or is just what you want. 争购

...a millionaire ready to snap them up at the premium price of $200 a gallon.

…一个百万富翁准备以每加仑$200的高价抢购它们。

Yet distressed specialists are frustrated. Convinced that a recession was just around the corner, they have raised $136bn since 2017, more than they did in the four years that followed the financial crisis, according to Private Debt Investor, a financial-information provider. But they have struggled to deploy the cash. Distressed-debt funds currently hold $62bn in “dry powder”—almost twice as much as they had in 2008 and close to the $75bn peak reached a year ago, reckons Preqin, a data firm.

然而困境债务专家们却非常沮丧。根据“私人债务投资者”提供的金融信息，由于专家们坚信经济衰退近在咫尺，自2017年起，他们已经筹集了1360亿美金，这笔金额超过金融危机后四年募集的金额总额。但是他们却很艰难地配置着这些资金。一家数据公司Pregin估计目前困境债务基金有620亿美元的“干粉”（即流动资金），这几乎是2008年的两倍，并接近一年前750亿的高峰值。

注：
1. Private Debt Investor ：“私人债务投资者”是记录世界私人信贷市场的公开平台。它为私人资产债务的提供者和使用者提供信息。该平台会追踪影响私人债务市场的机构、基金和交易。线上网站会更新公司最新动态，线下月刊每年出版十次。

网址：https://www.privatedebtinvestor.com/about-us/

2. Deploy：to use something or someone, especially in an effective way  v：有效使用、部署

3. Dry powder ：美国金融危机被成为火灾，美联储被成为消防队，钱就是消防队中的灭火器

Two things are making their life difficult. First, despite choppy markets and a commodity bust, the global economic expansion is a decade old and counting. And just when funds think a downturn is finally coming, interest rates are cut, allowing weak borrowers to limp on for longer. Meanwhile plentiful liquidity has led to weakening covenants—clauses that require borrowers to keep overall debt levels under control—making it harder for funds to force floundering firms into bankruptcy.

有两件事情使他们的生活更加艰难。首先，尽管市场震荡和大宗商品价格的下跌，全球经济扩张已有十年之久，但仍气数未尽。而当基金公司们认为衰退终将如期而至，利率的及时下调使得奄奄一息的借款者苟延残喘。同时充沛的流动性导致契约条款弱化了对借款者整体债务水平控制的约束，最终基金更难强行让陷入困境的企业步入破产清算程序。（清算也可获利，基金公司作为债权人在清算名单首位）

注：
1. Choppy：(of the sea or other area of water) having lots of small waves caused by a strong wind adj.波浪起伏的

2. Limp：to move or develop slowly and with difficulty v. 缓慢费力地前进,跛行

So distressed deals are few and far between. And when they come up, competition is fierce. That is buoying prices, which hurts returns. Weaker contractual protections make this worse: creditors often recover less from restructurings, says Fraser Lundie of Hermes Investment Management. Distressed debt is also becoming less liquid, and harder to trade, because passive funds that track fixed-income indices focus on larger and safer companies. After returning more than private equity for years, the asset class has lagged behind it each quarter since 2016, according to eFront, a data firm. Internal rates of return are just 8.5%, net of fees, compared with 12% two years ago.

因此，困境债务交易日渐稀少。一旦出现，竞争激烈，但激烈的竞争带来的价格上涨则削减了投资回报。Hermes投资管理公司的弗雷泽·伦迪（Fraser Lundie）表示，（使困境债务基金处于）弱势的保护条款让情况变得更加糟糕（上文提及，条款弱化对借款人控制整体债务水平的约束，使得基金难以迫使陷入困境的公司破产），重组后的债权人（指困境债务基金）的获益空间日渐缩小。困境债务的流动性也在日益枯竭，难以交易，因为追踪固定收益指数的被动型基金专注于规模更大，更为安全的企业。数据公司eFront的研究显示，自2016年以来，该资产类别（指收购困境债务）的回报每季均低于私募股权，曾经长期领先的局面则一去不返。扣除费用后，内部收益率仅为8.5％，而两年前为12％。

注：

1.few and far between: not very many or not appearing very frequently: 稀少的，不常碰到的。

2.Hermes Investment Management：an investment management firm providing public and private markets investment strategies and engagement services to institutional and wholesale investors, operating worldwide. Established in 1983 as the principal manager the BT Pension Scheme, Hermes now employs 200 investment and stewardship professionals, with 448 total staff, in its London head office, Singapore and New York.

3.eFront：the leading software provider of solutions dedicated to the financial industry with recognized expertise in alternative investments and risk management. eFront’s solutions serve companies in the private equity, real estate investment, banking, and insurance sectors.In 2019, eFront was acquired by BlackRock and since then operates as a specialized business unit within BlackRock Solutions, alongside Aladdin Institutional and Aladdin Wealth.

4.Passive fund：an investment vehicle that tracks a market index, or a specific market segment, to determine what to invest in. Unlike with an active fund, the fund manager does not decide what securities the fund takes on. This normally makes passive funds cheaper to invest in than active funds, which require the fund manager to spend time researching and analysing opportunities to invest in. 被动型基金，一般选取特定的指数成份股作为投资的对象，不主动寻求超越市场的表现，而是试图复制指数的表现。

The famine is “wiping out an entire generation of distressed professionals”, notes a credit-fund manager. Trading desks have lost staff; flagship funds have folded. Nick Kraemer of s&p Global, a rating agency, says default rates on speculative-grade debt in America could top 10% in mid-2020, up from 2.4% in June 2019, providing a reason to hope. But more easing by the Federal Reserve could thwart that. And structural factors, like weak covenants and thin liquidity, will probably persist. Britain’s builders may flounder, but corporate debt seems based on firmer foundations.

正如一位信贷基金经理所指出的，交易荒正在让整整一代困境债务交易的专业人员洗刷出局。它让交易柜台失去了员工，也让旗舰基金缩减了规模。评级机构标普全球（S＆P Global）的尼克·克莱默（Nick Kraemer）表示，美国投机级债务的违约率有望从2019年6月的2.4％升至2020年中10％的高点，为困境债务交易带来了一线希望。但是美联储的进一步宽松政策可能会掐断这一丝希望，同时弱势条款、弱流动性等结构性因素，仍然可能持续存在。（所以）英国的建筑商们可能仍将挣扎前行，但公司的债务问题恐怕没那么容易得到处置（轻易不会化解或清偿）。

注：

1.wipe out：1. to destroy completely. 2. to fall or crash usually as a result of losing control

2.thwart: hinder or prevent (the efforts, plans, or desires) of.阻碍、挫败。

翻译组：

Vivian，女，金融硕士，爱潜水爱运动

Vivifang，女，外币债券交易员，经济学人粉丝

Summer（琚儿），女，QE在职，梦想能仗翻译/音乐 /健康走天涯

校对组：

Leon,  男，金融专业研究生，经济学人铁粉

Jessie Lulu, 金融从业者，爱阳光，爱细雨，爱经济学人

Ashley，女，金融硕士，爱宠物 爱英语，爱旅游，经济学人粉丝