看巴菲特如何“白嫖”日本 | 经济学人财经（征集考研经验贴）

Finance & economics | Buttonwood

财经板块 | 梧桐树专栏

英文部分选自经济学人20230415财经版块

Finance & economics | Buttonwood

财经板块 | 梧桐树专栏

Warren Buffett is shaking Japan’s magic money tree

加仓日本成沃伦巴菲特又一摇钱树

Huge gaps between American and Japanese interest rates offer opportunities

美日利率鸿沟提供了众多商机

Shares in three of Japan’s five largest trading conglomerates reached record highs over the past week, following an announcement by Warren Buffett that he is keen to own more of their stock. It is just the latest good news for the firms. Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsui, Mitsubishi and Sumitomo Corporation have surged in value since Berkshire Hathaway, Mr Buffett’s investment firm, announced its first purchases on his 90th birthday in 2020. Since then, their share prices have risen by between 64% and 202%.

继沃伦·巴菲特宣布渴望更多持股后，日本五大贸易集团中三家的股票在过去一周创下历史新高。对于这些日本公司来说，可谓好事连连。自2020年巴菲特90岁生日当天首次宣布其投资公司伯克希尔·哈撒韦入股五家日本商社以来，伊藤忠商事、丸红、三井物产、三菱商事和住友商事的股价就一直飙升。自那以来，它们的股价已有64%至202%的上涨幅度。

注释：

1.Itochu：伊藤忠商事株式会社，是日本大型综合商社之一，经营项目横跨纤维、石化、金属、电机、食品、零售、通讯、媒体、航太、物流、金融、保险、不动产等等诸多领域。

Source: https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-hans/%E4%BC%8A%E8%97%A4%E5%BF%A0%E5%95%86%E4%BA%8B

2.Marubeni: 红株式会社（日语振假名：まるべに，Marubeni Corporation）是日本的综合商社之一，隶属于瑞穗金融集团，经营项目横跨食品、造纸、化学、能源、金属、钢铁、电机、船舶、运输、物流、金融、保险、不动产等等诸多领域。

Source: https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-hans/%E4%B8%B8%E7%B4%85

3.Mitsui: 三井集团，是日本一个企业联合体，由二战前属三井财阀的各企业在战后组合而成的公司联盟。

Source: https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-cn/%E4%B8%89%E4%BA%95%E9%9B%86%E5%9C%98

4.Mitsubishi: 三菱集团，是日本一个企业联合体，为原三菱财阀解体后其旗下企业共同组成，总共包括约300家企业。

Source: https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%B8%89%E8%8F%B1%E9%9B%86%E5%9B%A2

5.Sumitomo Corporation：住友商事，简称住商，是日本住友集团旗下的综合贸易公司。

Source: https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-hans/%E4%BD%8F%E5%8F%8B%E5%95%86%E4%BA%8B

延申阅读：

1.《“股神”巴菲特90岁生日，盖茨、库克送祝福，“鲐背之年”再出手》

Source: https://news.stcn.com/sd/202008/t20200831_2310617.html

2.《再访日本、增持日本五大商社，“股神”巴菲特的逻辑是什么？》

Source: https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/840005.html

In some ways Japan and Mr Buffett are a match made in heaven. Mr Buffett is famed for his unerring focus on business fundamentals. Even after a recent sell-off in American stocks the broad Tokyo market is still far cheaper. Its price-to-earnings ratio (based on expected earnings over the next year) is around 13, compared with 18 in America. The trading firms Berkshire Hathaway has invested in—known in Japan as sogo shosha—are often seen as stodgy and reliable. All have price-to-earnings ratios of below ten and pay healthy dividends.

在某些方面，日本和巴菲特是“天作之合”。巴菲特以准确无误地关注商业基本面而闻名。即使是最近在美股惨遭抛售后，整个东京市场的价格仍然要便宜得多。日本的市盈率（基于明年的预期收益）约为13，而美国为18。伯克希尔·哈撒韦投资的贸易公司——在日本被称为综合商社（sogo shosha）——通常被认为保守而可靠。市盈率均低于十，并支付可观的股息。

注释：

1.sogo shosha：综合商社，A sogo shosha is a form of industrial organization and a kind of vertically integrated trading company that originated in Japan and for the most part has remained unique to Japan.

Source: 

https://www.referenceforbusiness.com/encyclopedia/Sel-Str/Sogo-Shosha.html#ixzz7zd3xOsOX

2.Stodgy：extremely old-fashioned

Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/stodgy

Berkshire Hathaway’s Japan trade is revealing in other ways, too. It illustrates why the country may become a more appetising destination for other American investors. On April 14th the investment firm issued around $1.2bn in yen-denominated bonds, adding to the $7.8bn it issued from 2019 to 2022. Not only is Japan now Berkshire Hathaway’s second-largest investment location—the yen is also its second-largest funding currency. Even before the recent issuance, nearly a fifth of Berkshire Hathaway’s debt was denominated in yen.

伯克希尔·哈撒韦在日本的投资也透露出其他信息。其一是说明了日本为何会成为其他美国投资者更感兴趣的投资之地。在2019至2022年发行了合78亿美元的日元债券基础上，4月14日，伯克希尔·哈撒韦又发行了约合12亿美元的日元债券。现在不仅日本成为了伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的第二大投资地，日元也成为其第二大融资货币。即使不算此次债券融资，伯克希尔·哈撒韦也有近五分之一的负债是日元债。

The company is not borrowing because it is short of cash. Rather, the trade reveals the advantages of currency hedging. Borrowing as well as buying in yen protects Mr Buffett from falls in the currency’s value. And as a result of the gulf in interest rates between America and Japan, he can finance his investments using long-term loans charging less than 2% annually, while keeping his spare cash at home invested in government bonds earning almost 5%. Mr Buffett has questioned the merit of currency hedging in the past. Its appeal today seems to be irresistible. Borrowing in yen is so cheap relative to doing so in dollars that the trade is a no-brainer for investors with even a passing interest in Japanese stocks.

伯克希尔·哈撒韦并不是因为资金短缺而借款。相反，这项交易揭示了货币对冲的优势。发行日元债然后用日元投资可以助其对冲日元贬值的风险。而且，由于美国和日本之间的利率差，他可以使用年利率低于2%的长期贷款为其投资提供资金，同时将其在美国的闲置资金投资于收益近5%的国债。巴菲特过去曾质疑过货币对冲的好处。如今看来，其吸引力让人难以抗拒。相比美元，日元的借贷成本非常低廉，哪怕是想短线梭哈一把日股的炒家也应该无脑冲！

Of course, not every such investor can easily issue yen-denominated bonds. But those who cannot may exploit the monetary-policy gap with more straightforward currency hedges. Prices in forward and futures markets are determined by the difference in interest rates between the two economies in question. The surge in American but not Japanese interest rates over the past 18 months means that Japanese investors are paying an enormous premium to buy American assets and protect themselves from currency movements. American investors get a rather lovely premium when they do the same in the other direction.

当然，并不是所有投资者都能轻而易举地发行日元计价债券。但那些做不到这一点的投资者可以利用各国货币政策的差异，进行更直接的货币对冲。远期和期货市场的价格取决于两个相关经济体之间的利率差。过去18个月中，美国利率一路飙升，而日元却没有这种趋势，这意味着日本投资者为购买美国资产和保护自己免受汇率波动的影响支付了巨大的溢价。而美国投资者购买日本资产以及保护自己免受汇率波动将会得到相当可观的溢价。

The yen currently trades at 134 to the dollar, but currency-futures maturing in March next year give investors the opportunity to sell at 127 to the greenback. That locks in a 5% return over little less than a year. The only cost is that the buyer must hold yen for the whole period. For investors who want to own Japanese stocks, the return to hedging is essentially a bonus. The opportunity looks unlikely to disappear. Even if the Bank of Japan abandons its yield-curve-control policy, few analysts expect a big rise in Japanese rates.

目前美元对日元的汇率为134，但市场对明年三月的日元汇率定价为127。这意味着可以在不到一年的时间内锁定5%的收益，只不过投资者需要在该期间一直持有日元，而对于本来就想投资日股的人而言，这种货币对冲的收益可谓是额外的惊喜。这个机会看起来不太可能消失。即使日本央行放弃其收益率曲线控制政策，也没有什么分析家预计日本利率会大幅上升。

The potential benefits are large. Over the past year, the msci usa index has provided net returns, including capital gains and dividends, of -5%. The msci Japan index, unhedged but in dollar terms, provided a return of 1%. The msci Japan Hedged index, based on the returns of Japanese stocks employing one-month-rolling-currency forwards, is up by 12% over the same period.

潜在的收益是巨大的。过去的一年里，MSCI美国指数的净回报率，包括资本收益和股息，为-5%。而MSCI日本指数（以美元计价但没有进行对冲）回报率有1%。但是，基于日本股票使用一个月期滚动货币远期合约的MSCI日本对冲指数在同一时期却上涨了12%。

注释：

"one-month-rolling-currency forwards" 是一种金融工具，是一种货币对冲策略中的一种方法。它是一种外汇交易合约，用于在未来一个月的时间内，以预先协商的价格买入或卖出一种货币，以对冲可能的汇率波动风险。在这种策略中，合约会每月滚动，即到期后会再次签订一个新的合约，以保持对冲效果。这样的策略可以帮助投资者降低由于汇率波动引起的风险，特别是在涉及跨国投资的情况下。在这里，MSCI日本对冲指数使用了这种策略，通过购买和卖出一月期滚动货币远期合约来对冲日本股票投资在外币兑换中可能面临的风险。

It is probably only because of the enviable returns to American stocks over the past decade or so that more investors have not taken advantage of the Japanese bonus. But big names are beginning to jet to the other side of the Pacific. Elliott Management, an activist investor, has been rewarded for its intervention in Dai Nippon Printing. The company’s shares have surged by 46% this year. Meanwhile, Citadel, an American hedge fund, is reportedly reopening an office in Tokyo, having stayed away for the past 15 years. After a period in which the Japanese market has quietly offered solid returns, the example of Mr Buffett and other giants of American finance might draw a little more attention.

可能因为过去十年左右美国股市的可观回报，所以并没有太多投资者以上述方式去日本市场里捞金。但现在一些大牌投资机构开始冲向太平洋的另一边了。像激进投资者埃利奥特管理公司（Elliott Management）就在积极参与日本文化印刷株式会社（Dai Nippon Printing）运营后获得了可观的回报，该公司的股价今年已经涨了46%。同时，据说美国对冲基金城堡投资（Citadel）在离开东京十五年后，又重新开设了东京办公室。在日本市场闷声发大财之后，巴菲特等美国金融巨头的举动可能引起更多关注。

注释：

1.Elliott Management是一家美国的对冲基金公司，成立于1977年，总部位于纽约。该公司以其对企业进行激进干预和重组而闻名，经常通过购买公司股票来获取管理权并推动公司改革。李勇鸿曾是AC米兰足球俱乐部的前任所有者，他于2017年通过其公司Rossoneri Sport Investment Lux购买了AC米兰的控制权。然而，根据报道，他在购买AC米兰后不久就面临了财务困境，并未按照计划履行其对俱乐部的承诺。因此，Elliott Management在2018年通过收购AC米兰的债权并将其转换为股权，最终掌握了AC米兰的控制权，并进行了一系列的改革和重组。

2.Citadel，城堡资本，全球最大对冲基金之一。当然它还有另外一个身份。A股股民或许对司度这家公司有些印象。2015年股灾期间，有传闻称境外做空势力是导致A股大跌的元凶之一。当时一家名为司度贸易的外资公司因账户频繁申报或频繁撤销申报、涉嫌影响证券交易价格，被沪深交易所限制交易。司度正是Citadel Securities的全资子公司。去年，在长达五年的调查之后司度同意支付1亿美元，就涉嫌违反账户管理使用的有关规定与中国监管达成和解协议。

翻译组：

Ellie，女，金融硕士，经济学人粉丝

Summerr，Stay hungry, stay foolish

Martina，女，爱电影爱生活，爱金融经济

Humi，女，学习财经的金融小白，不负韶华，平视世界

校对组：

骡拉，很帅但是吃冰棒舔手

Diamond，男，血汗工厂搬砖工，经济学人粉丝

Hannah，女, 爱读财经的金融小白 经济学人唯粉