美债违约在即，狼也许真的会来 | 经济学人财经

Finance & economics | Buttonwood

财经板块 | 梧桐树专栏

英文部分选自经济学人20230513财经版块

Finance & economics | Buttonwood

财经板块|梧桐树专栏

Investors brace for a painful crash into America’s debt-ceiling

投资者准备迎接美债违约风险的冲击

A solution will probably be found. But default is no longer unthinkable

这场危机或能得以化解，但是美债违约不再是天方夜谭

Most of the time, the impossibility of America defaulting on its sovereign bonds is taken as a fundamental axiom of the financial system. The country issues the world’s reserve currency, so investors always stand ready to lend it money. And if you are able to borrow more, you can pay back your debts.

美国主权债务违约风险为零，这通常被认为是金融系统公理。美国是国际储备货币的发行人，因此投资者随时愿意借钱给美国。既然总能借到钱，那么就可以借新还旧，偿还债务。

注释：

reserve currency: A reserve currency is a large quantity of currency maintained by central banks and other major financial institutions to prepare for investments, transactions, and international debt obligations, or to influence their domestic exchange rate. 储备货币是指被全球中央银行大量持有作为外汇储备、或被大型金融机构大量持有以备投资交易的货币。（来源：Investopedia；推荐阅读：https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/reservecurrency.asp）

Yet Washington is once again reminding the world that, through sheer mulishness, a default is indeed possible. Every now and again—as in 2011, 2013 and today—America smacks into its “debt ceiling”, a political device that places a hard limit (currently $31.4trn, or 117% of gdp) on gross government borrowing. Congress must then agree to raise or waive the ceiling in order to prevent the Treasury from failing to make bond payments or meet spending obligations. This time Janet Yellen, the treasury secretary, has warned that the government may run out of cash and accounting manoeuvres as soon as June 1st. And so on May 9th, congressional leaders gathered in the Oval Office with President Joe Biden for the very first stage of negotiation. They are a long way from a deal.

然而美国政府死性不改，再次提醒世界：违约也不是完全不可能的哦。2011年和2013年发生过的危机今日重现，美国又一次触及所谓的“债务天花板”，也就是国会利用政治手段为政府总债务设置的法定上限（目前是31.4万亿美元，占GDP的117%）。现在，如果国会不同意提高债务上限或者给予豁免，财政部就无法偿还国债本息或执行必要的支出。财政部部长珍妮特·耶伦（Janet Yellen）发出警告，政府最快可能在6月1日耗尽现金并用尽会计调整空间。为解决债务上限问题，5月9日国会领导人和美国总统乔·拜登（Joe Biden）在白宫椭圆办公室开始了第一阶段的谈判。但他们距离达成协议还有很远。

注释：

1.debt ceiling: In the United States, the debt ceiling or debt limit is a legislative limit on the amount of national debt that can be incurred by the U.S. Treasury, thus limiting how much money the federal government may pay on the debt it already borrowed by borrowing more money. 美国的政府债务上限是国会给财政部设定的一个法定举债上限。自1917年首次设定以来，政府债务上限已被国会提高上百次，从彼时的135亿美元提高到了2021年的31.4万亿美元。（来源：维基百科、新华社）

2.oval office: The Oval Office is the formal working space of the president of the United States. 椭圆办公室是美国总统的正式办公室。（来源：维基百科）

The stage is thus set for a game of brinkmanship in which a Republican-controlled House of Representatives tries to wring concessions from Mr Biden, as the nation’s creditworthiness hangs in the balance. The two sides should find a way to avoid catastrophe. But as Washington’s staring contest intensifies, Wall Street’s finest are less inclined to get involved. The merest hint of a default has already set traders to work looking for ways to protect their investments.

美国国家信誉岌岌可危之际，共和党打起了“边缘政策（brinkmanship）”的算盘——掌控众议院的共和党人绞尽脑汁想让拜登让步。美国两党应寻找解决办法，避免危机发生。两党在这一问题僵持不下的同时，华尔街大佬们则并不愿意插足其中。最微弱的一丝国债偿付违约的迹象已经迫使股票交易员四处奔走，寻找保护其投资的办法。

注释：

1.Brinkmanship: a method of gaining political advantage by pretending that you are willing to do something very dangerous；

维基百科：边缘政策是指在冷战时期用来形容一个近乎要发动战争的情况，也就是到达战争边缘，从而说服对方屈服的一种战略术语。边缘政策是一种被视为有效的政策，例如核战争，该战争可以在相互保证毁灭的前提下进行，此时一方就会以"核"来威慑双方保持克制。

2.Hang in the balance: If something hangs in the balance, it is not certain what will happen to it; to be in a precarious state or condition：悬而未决、岌岌可危

3.Wring: If you wring something out of someone, you manage to make them give it to you even though they do not want to 设法获得

例句：Buyers use different ruses to wring free credit out of their suppliers.

4.Staring contest: A staring contest is a game in which two people stare into each other's eyes and attempt to maintain eye contact for a longer period than their opponent can. The game ends when one participant looks away or smiles. In a figurative sense, the phrase "staring contest" can also be used to describe a situation where two opposing parties are locked in a standoff or impasse, neither willing to back down or compromise.

To understand why, consider what a default would mean. Short-term Treasuries, or “t-bills”, are the closest thing there is to a risk-free asset. This makes them a favourite of corporate cash managers (who want an ultra-safe return) and any trader needing to post collateral (which must hold its value and be easy to sell). If the government stiffs corporate treasurers, companies will miss payments to one another and the wheels of commerce will grind to an agonising halt. Make traders’ collateral vanish, and financial contracts of all stripes will start to fall apart, unleashing chaos in global markets.

要想弄清楚原因，必须明白国债偿付违约意味着什么。短期国库券，亦称短期国债，是一种几乎无风险的资产，在两类人中最受青睐：极度追求投资回报安全性的企业现金经理（corporate cash managers）和需要时刻准备保证金的交易员（它们的保证金需要兼具流动性和保值性）。如果美国政府在国债偿付上“耍赖”，企业将无法支付业务款项，商业之轮也将停滞不前、令人苦不堪言。交易员的保证金遭遇减记，各种金融合约陷入混乱，进而引发全球市场动荡。

注释：

1.Default n./vi: If a person, company, or country defaults on something that they have legally agreed to do, such as paying some money or doing a piece of work before a particular time, they fail to do it. 不履行（义务）；违约

例句：

The credit card business is down, and more borrowers are defaulting on loans

信用卡生意正在走下坡路，更多的借贷人不履行还贷责任。

2.Stiff vi. (informal): to cheat someone by not paying them, especially by not leaving a tip in a restaurant 诈骗、不还钱；不给小费

3.~ of all stripes: 表示种类、类型多样：各种各样、形形色色

4.Collateral: money or property which is used as a guarantee that someone will repay a loan. 抵押品；担保金

Small wonder, then, that investors are rushing to protect themselves. A clamour for t-bills maturing before any possible default has given rise to wild swings in the yield of the world’s safest asset. One-month bills yielded 4.7% at the start of April. Over the next three weeks that fell to 3.4%, even as the Federal Reserve prepared to raise its interest rate to 5-5.25%. But one-month bills now mature after June 1st, when the Treasury might have exhausted its cash. And so demand has cratered, with their yield soaring by more than two percentage points in a matter of weeks. One trading boss describes having her team attempt to manually override their settlement software, to ensure that bills which mature without being paid do not simply vanish from the system.

因此，难怪投资者们急于保全自己。投资者争相购买到期日在6月以前（即无违约风险）的债券，这导致了短期国库券这一世界上最安全的资产的收益率出现大幅波动。4月初，一月期国债收益率为4.7%，随后三周降至3.4%，即便当时美联储准备将利率提高到5%到5.25%之间。但如今购买的一月期国债将在6月1日之后到期，那时财政部有可能耗尽现金。因此，美债需求暴跌，其收益率在短短数周内飙升了两个百分点以上。一位交易经理表示，她的团队正在手动重载其结算软件的行为，以防系统删除到期未偿付的短期国债。

注释：

1. small wonder: idiom, used to mean that something is not surprising. (Cambridge Dictionary) 难怪

2. clamour: a loud complaint about something or a demand for something. (Cambridge Dictionary) 大声抗议/要求

3. T-bills: Treasury Bill美国的短期国债，期限（maturity）为一年以内，常见的有4、8、13、26和52周。T-bill并不定期支付利息，而是以低于票面（par value/face value）的价格发行，票面价值与购买价格（purchase price）之间的差额即为投资人的收益。

资料来源：Treasury Bills (T-Bills): What You Need to Know to Invest

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/treasurybill.asp 

拓展阅读：《一月期美债收益率创新高》

https://cj.sina.com.cn/articles/view/1704103183/65928d0f020035spv 

《美国一旦违约市场会怎么样》

https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1765568594417633584&wfr=spider&for=pc 

4. yield: an amount of something positive, such as food or profit, that is produced or supplied. (Cambridge Dictionary) 收益率

5. crater: to fail or fall suddenly and dramatically. (Merriam-Webster Dictionary) 崩溃、暴跌

6. override: to neutralize the action of (something, such as an automatic control). (Merriam-Webster Dictionary) 干预（自动操作）

Longer-term Treasuries have so far seemed safer, under the assumption that an actual default would shock politicians out of their stubbornness, and would be quickly rectified. Yet even they are not immune. The cost of insuring five-year Treasuries against default, once the very definition of throwing away money, has quadrupled over the past 12 months (a fact admittedly explained in part by the market’s lack of liquidity).

长期国债目前为止似乎相对安全，假设真正的债务违约会使政客们从固执中惊醒，并能很快得到解决。即便如此，长期国债也无法幸免。曾经，为5年期国债投保被认为纯粹是浪费钱，但这一成本在过去的12个月里增长了300%（诚然，该情况在一定程度上是受市场缺乏流动性影响）。

注释：

1. rectify: to correct something or make something right. (Cambridge Dictionary) 纠正

2. quadruple: to become four times as big, or to multiply a number or amount by four. (Cambridge Dictionary) 变成四倍

What next? For investors who think there is no chance of Washington careening over the precipice, it is time to snap up t-bills at a discount and sell pointless bond insurance to the nervous. But even optimists have cause for concern. Since the Treasury would have run down its cash reserves to virtually nothing, a deal would be followed by a glut of issuance to rebuild the buffer. Even the best-case scenario would drain liquidity from the market and may push yields higher.

接下来要怎么办？对于那些认为华盛顿不可能坠入悬崖的投资者来说，是时候以折扣价抢购国库券并向倍感紧张的人出售毫无意义的债券保险了。但即使是乐观主义者也有担忧的理由。经此一役，财政部的钱袋子必然遭遇重创，此后须进行大规模输血才能恢复元气。即使是最好的情况也会耗尽市场的流动性并可能推高收益率。

注释：

1、careening：倾斜；使倾斜

2、precipice：悬崖；绝壁；险境

3、snap up：抢购，抢先弄到手；匆匆吃下

4、glut：使（市场）过分饱和，使（市场）供过于求

The stockmarket, meanwhile, looks shaky either way. Analysts at pimco, an asset manager, note that over the past dozen years, the s&p 500 index has fallen by an average of 6.5% in the month running up to a debt-ceiling deadline—even though these have always been met. Under a default it would fare much worse. In 2013, during a previous debt-ceiling stand-off, Fed officials simulated the effects of a month-long default. They estimated that stock prices would fall by 30% and the dollar by 10%.

与此同时，无论怎么看，股市都不稳定。太平洋资产管理公司（pimco）的资产管理经理指出，在过去的十几年里，每每债务触顶危机出现，在最后期限前的一个月中标普平均收跌6.5%——尽管此前每次债务危机都顺利得以解决。若发生债券违约，情况会更糟。在2013年的债务上限僵局中，美联储官员模拟债券违约一个月造成的影响。他们估计股票价格将下跌30%，并且美元将下跌10%。

注释：

pimco：太平洋投资管理公司，由被业界称作债券之王的比尔格罗斯创建。主要业务包括策略投资、国际并购、资产重组、私募融资、资本运作、境外股票发行上市等。

In the meantime, expect traders to get even more jittery. America’s politics will prevent an early deal, and it could well take the markets freaking out to force one at all. Default remains the least likely outcome. But as investors are acutely aware, it is no longer unthinkable.

与此同时，预计交易员会变得更加紧张不安。美国当前的政治生态下，提前达成协议（解决债务危机）几无可能，即使最终能解决这一问题，可能也只会是在市场出现大面积恐慌之后。尽管如此，出现实质性违约的几率很小。但正如投资者敏锐地意识到的那样，这不再是难以置信的。

注释：

jittery：神经过敏的；紧张不安的；战战兢兢的

翻译组：

Zorina，Dream big and be daring

Eva，寻路中，偶尔怀念，时常向前

风筝，热爱生活 热爱翻译 热爱搞钱 热爱猫咪

Helen，女，金融资管，努力成为六边形战士ing

校对组：

骡拉，很帅但是吃冰棒舔手

Diamond，男，血汗工厂搬砖工，经济学人粉丝

Hannah，女, 爱读财经的金融小白 经济学人唯粉