股市度假vs债市炼狱，市场分歧为哪般 | 经济学人财经

财经板块 | 梧桐树专栏

英文部分选自经济学人20230624期财经版块

Finance & economics | Buttonwood

财经板块 | 梧桐树专栏

Why investors can’t agree on the financial outlook

投资者市场预期不同为哪般

Welcome to a stock safari

股市探险欢迎你

The quokka, an Australian marsupial about the size of a domestic cat, has full cheeks and a curved mouth that convey the impression—often to delighted tourists—that the critter is smiling. It has been dubbed the happiest animal on Earth. Yet these days it has competition from another species: the American stock investor. The s&p 500 has already risen by 14% this year. An increase of another 10% would take the index back to its all-time high, set in January last year. Excitement about artificial intelligence has lit a fire under companies seen as potential beneficiaries.

短尾矮袋鼠是生活在澳大利亚的一种有袋动物，大小和家猫差不多，长着肥嘟嘟的脸颊，嘴角弯弯，让人们——尤其是乘兴而来的游客——觉得它在微笑。短尾矮袋鼠被戏称为地球上最快乐的生物。不过近来它的地位受到了另一个物种的挑战：美国股票投资人。标普500指数今年已经上涨了14%，如果再上涨10%，该指数将重返去年1月创下的历史高点。市场兴奋于人工智能的前景，被视为潜在受益者的企业股价蹭蹭上窜。

注释：

1.quokka: （澳大利亚西部的）短尾矮袋鼠

2.marsupial: n./adj. 有袋动物（的）

3.critter: (informal) an animal. (Merriam-Webster Dictionary)

4.dub: to give something or someone a particular name, especially describing what you think of it, him, or her. (Cambridge Dictionary) 把……称为

5.light a fire under (someone): (idiom) to cause (someone) to move or work more quickly and effectively. (Merriam-Webster Dictionary) 鼓舞，激励

Although climbing stock prices represent an impressive turnaround, they are not the most astonishing market shift. That award goes to the collapse in volatility. In the past 12 months the vix, an index that measures expected volatility in stock prices, using the cost of insuring against extreme moves, has declined by more than half, falling from around 30 to 13. The last time it was so depressed was in early 2020, before the disruption of covid-19, when concerns about stagnation were more common than worries about inflation. Considering that the vix is sometimes referred to as the “fear gauge”, its low level suggests a quokka-like placidity in the stockmarket.

然而，尽管股价的攀升令人惊异，但最让人震惊的市场变动还得数波动指数的暴跌。过去的12个月里，VIX指数从30跌至13，下降了一半有余。该指数通过追踪投保极端波动的成本来衡量股价的预期波动。上一次VIX指数下探至此还是2020年初，彼时新冠疫情尚未爆发，市场担忧经济停滞多过通货膨胀。考虑到VIX指数有时被称为“恐慌指数”，其低水平表明股市平静得如同可爱的微笑袋鼠。

注释：

1.VIX: vix指隐含波动率。是通过市场未来30天期限的sp500 看涨/看跌期权的价格倒推回来的，因为期权价格计算中5个要素中的其他4个要素都是可获得的，所以就可以算出这个波动率，因为是推导出来的，所以也叫隐含波动率。all else equal，期权价格越贵，推导出来的互动率越高。

“Cost of insuring extreme moves”，其实就是期权价格，又因为其实只有波动率影响期权价格，所以波动率就是cost of insuring extreme moves。看跌期权的保险作用在于买上之后 指数跌了有收益，其收益可以抵消本身投资组合的亏损，所以是insurance。

2.gauge: 测量，测量仪器

3.placidity: n. placid, adj. serenely free of interruption or disturbance. (Merriam-Webster Dictionary) 平静

This outlook is all the more astonishing given the surfeit of things about which an investor could worry. There is, for instance, considerable uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s next move, which would be a good reason for investors to want a little more protection. When the s&p 500 touched an earlier peak in 2021—a period of higher volatility—the federal funds rate sat at zero (it is now 5%) and ten-year Treasury yields at 1.5% (now 3.7%). Moreover, high rates may prompt something else to break. Recent ructions in American banking were hardly on the radar-screens of investors until days before Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank went bust. The failure of another lender, First Republic, came at the beginning of May. Today’s optimism makes it hard to remember that those troubles were so recent.

这一情况离谱得出奇，因为能搅乱投资者心绪的实在太多。例如，美联储的下一步行动依然扑朔迷离，投资者希望获得更多保护，也显得十分合理。2021年，标普500指数达到峰值、市场波动性较大时，联邦基金利率为零（现下为 5%），十年期国债收益率为 1.5%（现下为 3.7%）。此外，高利率可能会诱发其他问题。直到硅谷银行（Silicon Valley Bank）和标志银行（Signature Bank）破产前夕，美国银行业近来的乱象才为投资者所知。五月初，又一家贷款机构第一共和银行（First Republic）也轰然倒掉。如今，弥漫的乐观情绪让人们几乎忘记，这些麻烦不过是最近才发生。

注释：

1.surfeit:过量,过度(尤指饮食)

2.ruction:愤怒的抗议；争吵

3.radar-screens:雷达屏幕

4.astonishing:令人震惊的

Yet there is another species that looks rather less placid. If stock investors are the quokkas of the financial kingdom, bond investors are the porcupines: wary and naturally defensive. The decline of the vix stands in stark contrast to its equivalent in the Treasury market. Although the move index, which tracks the price of insuring against bond-market volatility, has declined from a 13-year high in March, it is still twice as high as it was pre-covid. Bond investors remain far from convinced that the good times have returned.

然而，还有另外一个不那么平静的物种。如果说股票投资者是金融王国的短尾矮袋鼠，那么债券投资者就是豪猪：警惕且天生具有防御性。股票市场波动指数VIX和债券市场波动指数MOVE的走向截然相反。追踪债券市场波动投保价格的MOVE在3月达到了13年来的最高点，尽管近来有所下跌，但仍是新冠疫情爆发前水平的两倍。债券投资者很难相信好日子又回来了。

注释：

1.placid: 温和的

2.porcupines: 豪猪，箭猪

3.MOVE:MOVE指数是公认的衡量美国利率波动性的指标，可跟踪两年，五年，十年期和十年期的一个月非场外期权当前价格所隐含的美国国债收益率波动趋势。这里的。insure解释同前VIX,其实就是期权价格。

The divergence in sentiment between the quokkas and porcupines is very different from the early stages of the pandemic, when stocks were extremely volatile and government bonds far less so. Back then, investors were preoccupied with covid’s economic fallout, the development and deployment of vaccines, and the pace of economic reopening. Then inflation picked up and the Fed’s actions became the overwhelming focus.

袋鼠和豪猪的心境差异，与疫情早期阶段的迥然不同，彼时，股市波动极其剧烈，而政府债券则平静得多。在那时，投资者心里想的全是疫情对经济的影响、疫苗的研制和推广以及经济重新放开的节奏。后来，通胀抬头，美联储的行动成为了压倒一切的关注焦点。

It might be tempting to observe the difference and judge that either the bond or stockmarket must be wrong. But that would not be quite right. If artificial intelligence emerges as a transformative force for the bottom line of major technology companies, but not for economywide growth, it would be a tremendous boon for investors in shares and mean little for government bonds.

面对这样的差异，人们很容易认为债券和股票市场必有一个出现了偏差。但是也不尽然：如果人工智能的变革性力量只体现在大公司的账本、而非全局经济增长上，那么受益的将只有股票投资者，而政府债券投资者只能望洋兴叹。

注释：

1.boon：You can describe something as a boon when it makes life better or easier for someone. 福音

2.bottom line：the amount of money that is a profit or a loss after everything has been calculated最终赢利（或亏损）；损益表底线

The problem is that such an outcome is far from assured—and investors are beginning to price stocks based on earnings that are unlikely to materialise any time soon. The price-to-earnings ratio of the s&p 500, based on expected earnings over the next 12 months, has climbed from below 16 late last year to 19 now. This is still below the highs set during the pandemic, when earnings expectations were smothered by lockdowns and restrictions, but is higher than at any other point in the past two decades.

问题是，变革不变革还远没有准信，投资者已然开始依据短期内很难实现的收益为股票定价。标普500指数的市盈率（基于未来12个月的预期收益）已经从去年年底的不到16攀升至如今的19，已成为二十年来第二高的点位，仅次于疫情期间的高点（彼时封控和种种限制使得预期收益骤减）。

What the divergence in animal spirits does say is that investors in the stockmarket—mistakenly or not—have left behind concerns that preoccupied them just a couple of months ago. They have traded their manifold worries for an optimistic narrative about artificial intelligence. The rosy outlook suggested by the lack of volatility is ultimately a judgment not just that the new technology will become a revolutionary moneymaker for America’s listed companies, but that the Fed’s decisions will not shake the financial system again and that the economy will withstand the impact of interest-rate rises. As things stand, it looks like a bold bet.

但袋鼠和豪猪的分别确实说明，对错不论，股票投资者已经将几个月前的担忧抛之于脑后。他们已经将各种担忧转换成对人工智能的乐观。归根到底，波动性下降所折射的乐观前景表明，在股票投资者看来，新技术将成为美国上市公司的摇钱树，美联储的决策将不会再次动摇金融体系——经济将经受住加息的考验。目前而言，这看起来是个大胆赌注。

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