拿什么拯救你：一“文”不值的卢布 | 经济学人财经

Finance and economics | Seeing cents

财经 | 跌破100关口

英文部分选自经济学人20230819财经版块

Finance and economics | Seeing cents

财经 | 跌破100关口

Russia will struggle to cope with a sinking rouble

俄罗斯勉力应对卢布贬值

What does the currency’s collapse mean for Vladimir Putin’s ability to wage war?

卢布崩溃对弗拉基米尔·普京发动战争的能力有何影响？

On August 14th Russia’s rouble slipped past the value of 100 to the American dollar, meaning it was worth less than a solitary cent—and was the cheapest it had been since the immediate aftermath of the invasion of Ukraine. The currency is one of the world’s worst performers this year, outdone only by perennially troublesome peers like the Argentine peso, Venezuelan bolivar and Turkish lira.

8月14日，卢布兑美元汇率跌破100大关，这意味着卢布的价值还不到1美分，创下俄乌战争以来的最低水平，成为今年全球表现最差的货币之一，也就比阿根廷比索、委内瑞拉玻利瓦尔和土耳其里拉等常年陷于泥沼中的货币好一点儿。

The next day Russian monetary policymakers intervened, scrambling to respond to events for the first time since early in the war. The Bank of Russia raised interest rates by 3.5 percentage points, to 12%. Although the rouble rose a little on the news, it is still, at 96 to the dollar, far cheaper than its level of 60 or so this time last year. Rate rises are unlikely to stem the currency’s decline soon, with consequences for Vladimir Putin’s ability to wage war.

作为俄罗斯货币政策制定机构，俄罗斯央行次日便采取干预措施，匆忙应对，该行上次出手还要追溯到俄乌战争初期。俄央行将利率上调3.5个百分点，达到12%。尽管在此消息影响下卢布稍有上涨，但96卢布兑1美元的汇率仍远低于去年同期的60卢布兑1美元的汇率水平。利率上调不太可能让卢布迅速止跌，弗拉基米尔·普京发动战争的能力会因此受到影响。

Currency collapses are often prompted by nervous international investors or fleeing domestic capital. Yet trading in the rouble, especially against the dollar, remains thin. Sanctions and capital controls have left Russia isolated. Instead of reflecting the aggregated opinions of speculators, the rouble swings according to the textbook economic model, reflecting the relative strength of exports (which earn foreign currency) and imports (which must be paid for with these earnings).

汇率暴跌通常源于国际投资者恐慌或本土资金外逃。但是卢布在国际外汇市场上的交易量总体较少，特别是兑美元的交易仍然稀薄。制裁和资本管制已让俄罗斯成为孤岛。在此情形下，卢布汇率反映的不是市场中投机者的情绪，而是将教科书上的经济模型搬到了现实中，随着出口（创造外汇收入）和进口（产生外汇支出）的此消彼长而左右摇摆。

Since the g7 imposed a $60 price cap on Russian oil in December, the value of exports has slumped. Russia’s earnings were 15% lower in dollar terms from January to July than during the same period last year, a fact not entirely explained by a lower global oil price. Meanwhile, imports have surged as the government prosecutes its war, and buys the goods to do so. In the first seven months of the year Russia’s current-account surplus, a measure of how much more foreign currency the country receives than spends, fell by 86%, to $25bn.

去年12月，七国集团（G7）对俄罗斯原油设定了60美元/桶的价格上限，此后俄罗斯出口额一路走低。今年1-7月，俄罗斯国家收入以美元计同比缩水15%，而这背后可不仅仅有国际原油价格受挫的因素。与此同时，俄罗斯政府仍在继续打仗，并为此采购商品，推动进口不断攀升。今年1-7月，俄罗斯经常账户顺差（衡量国家外汇收入超过支出的程度） 降至250亿美元，锐减86%。

注释：

1、the $60 price cap on Russian oil: 为在保证俄罗斯原油供给的同时，防止俄罗斯通过战时压降供应以获得原油出口的超额收益，G7（主要是美国联合欧盟等盟友）从去年12月起给俄罗斯出口原油设定了60美元的价格上限，呼吁买方一致行动确保限价执行，鼓励买方与俄罗斯谈判折价购买原油。推荐阅读：

https://home.treasury.gov/news/featured-stories/the-price-cap-on-russian-oil-a-progress-report。

2、current-account: 国际收支中的经常账户是指贸易收支的总和（商品和服务的出口减去进口），减去生产要素收入（例如利息和股息），然后减去转移支付（例如外国援助）。

On the one hand, this suggests the oil-price cap is having some impact. Attempts to dodge the policy are not making up for being forced to sell oil at a discount. On the other hand, it suggests Russia is finding ways to import goods. German exports to Russia’s friendlier neighbours, for instance, have shot up suspiciously.

一方面，这表明七国集团的原油限价手段发挥了作用。虽俄罗斯进行了种种规避限价的尝试，但依然无法弥补被迫折价卖油的损失。另一方面，也表明俄罗斯正在寻找进口商品的途径。比如，德国对一些俄罗斯友好邻国的出口激增，难免不让人怀疑。

A cheap currency raises the rouble value of the government’s oil revenues, but it also raises the cost of the imports. In June Andrei Belousov, Russia’s deputy prime minister, said the value at the time, of 80-90 roubles a dollar, was best for the country. When the rouble was far stronger last year, the Russian government was happy to use it as evidence Western sanctions were failing. That confidence has now gone. On August 14th Maxim Oreshkin, an adviser to Mr Putin, wrote a column stressing the need for a strong rouble and blaming its collapse on the central bank.

卢布贬值，俄罗斯原油收入的卢布价值虽然有所增加，但同时也抬高了进口成本。今年6月俄罗斯副总理安德烈·别洛乌索夫（Andrei Belousov）曾表示，美元兑卢布汇率保持在80-90的区间对俄罗斯是最有利的。去年，当卢布远比现在强势之时，俄罗斯政府曾对此津津乐道，以佐证西方国家的制裁都是“纸老虎”。如今，这份自信已荡然无存。8月14日，普京的经济顾问马克西姆·奥列什金（Maxim Oreshkin）撰写了一篇专栏文章，强调必须打好汇率保卫战，并将卢布暴跌归咎于俄罗斯央行政策不力。

The emergency rate rise helped the rouble only a little. Russia’s isolation means higher interest rates are unlikely to tempt “hot money” (speculative funds seeking short-term returns). The focus may now turn to the domestic capital that is at risk of fleeing. Strengthening capital controls could stanch the flow, but would take time to have an impact. As this piece was published, the government was reportedly due to meet to decide whether to force exporters to sell foreign-currency earnings.

紧急加息对卢布的帮助甚微。俄罗斯的孤立意味着更高的利率也不太可能吸引游资（寻求短期回报的投机资金）。目前，焦点转向了那些有外流风险的国内资本。加强资本管制可以遏制资金流出，但需要时间才能看到效果。在这篇文章发表时，有报道称俄罗斯政府将召开会议以决定是否强制出口商出售外汇收入。

Direct intervention in currency markets is another option. The central bank has scaled back purchases of foreign currency. Under a budgetary rule, Russia used to buy other currencies in exchange for roubles if it had a surplus of oil and gas revenue, in order to build up reserves. On August 9th this rule was abandoned. According to official figures, the country had foreign-currency reserves of $587bn at the start of August, suggesting the central bank has the firepower to prop up the rouble. The problem is that some $300bn of these reserves are frozen by the West.

直接干预外汇市场是另一种选择。央行已经缩减了外汇购买规模。根据一项预算规定，如果俄罗斯油气收入存在顺差，就会用卢布购买其它货币，以增加外汇储备。但在8月9日，这项规定已被废除。官方数据显示，8月初，俄罗斯拥有5870亿美元的外汇储备，表明俄罗斯央行有能力支撑卢布汇率。问题在于，西方国家冻结了其中约3000亿美元的外汇储备。

Unless the government can secure more oil revenue, it faces a choice. The state could cut back on spending, including on its armed forces, in order to reduce imports. Alternatively, the civilian economy will take the pain. Rising inflation and higher interest rates will weaken the purchasing power of ordinary Russians, forcing them to buy fewer foreign goods. Thus the fate of Russia’s economy will not be decided by the judgments of international financiers but by the depths of Mr Putin’s aggression. It is a far more unhappy situation in which to be trapped.

除非能够获得更多的石油收入，否则政府将面临一个选择。要么政府可以削减开支，包括军费开支，以减少进口。要么，民用经济将担此重创。不断上升的通货膨胀和更高的利率将削弱普通国民的购买力，迫使他们减少购买外国商品。因此，俄罗斯经济的命运不是取决于国际金融家的判断，而是取决于普京还要打到什么时候。这是一个更为不幸的困境。

翻译组：

Ellie 女，金融硕士，经济学人粉丝

Martina 女，爱电影爱生活，爱金融经济

风筝 热爱生活 热爱翻译 热爱搞钱 热爱猫咪

Humi 女，学习财经的金融小白，不负韶华，平视世界

校对组：

Alexis Less is more

Eva 寻路中，偶尔怀念，时常向前

Hannah 女，做个废柴，保持愉快