房贷利率选固定还是浮动，这题怎么答？| 经济学人财经
1
思维导图作者：
May Li，男，我要去追逐心中的太阳，还要继续努力的亚古兽
2
Finance and economics | Buttonwood
财经 | 梧桐树专栏
英文部分选自经济学人20230909财经板块
Finance and economics | Buttonwood
财经 | 梧桐树专栏
Should you fix your mortgage for ever?
应该永久锁定你的抵押贷款利率吗？
You can ignore rising rates, but you pay an arm and a leg
你可以无视疯涨的利率，但也要付出天大的代价
Few assets are as political as housing, and therefore few markets depend as much on national borders as those for mortgages. Governments can twiddle endless dials to control what goes on, concerning everything from how much you can borrow and who can lend, to what they can do if you stiff them. For today’s borrowers, though, one dial feels most urgent: how long is your fix?
很少有资产像房地产一样对政策高度敏感，因此也很少有市场能像住房抵押贷款市场一样有明确的国家界限。政府可以无休止地拨动政策仪表盘进行调控：可以贷多少、谁可以放贷，以及你违约时会面临的后果，全是他们说了算。然而，对于今天的借款人来说，有一项政策调控他们最为关心，那就是，他们目前的利率能维持多久？
注释：
1.twiddle: If youtwiddle something, you twist it or turn it quickly with your fingers. 旋弄
2.stiff: <美，非正式>诈骗，不还钱，（尤指）不给；<非正式>（新产品、电影、节目等）不畅销，彻底失败；<美，非正式>冷落，怠慢；<非正式>杀害某人
If you are American or Danish, the answer may well be that you have a fixed interest rate for the duration of your mortgage. As a result, you may pay as little attention as you wish to hawkish central bankers and climbing bond yields. In many other countries—including Britain, Canada and much of southern Europe—mortgage rates tend to be fixed for a few years at most, or not at all. If you fall into this group, you may recently have devoted rather more thought to monetary policy than you would like, since (congratulations!) you are one of its transmission channels. Faced with imminently rising payments, you might be looking enviously at those who need never worry about them.
如果你在美国或者丹麦，那答案很可能是，只要在你的抵押贷款存续期间，你会一直享受一个固定利率。因此，你可能不大会关注鹰派的央行行长们和不断攀升的债券收益率。在许多其他国家——包括英国、加拿大和大部分南欧国家——抵押贷款利率往往最多只能固定几年，甚至始终要浮动。如果你属于这个群体，那么最近在货币政策上可能要颇费思量，投入的脑力可能超出预期，因为（祝贺你！）你是货币政策的传导渠道之一。面对即将上涨的月供，你可能会羡慕那些永远不用担心这些事情的人。
注释：
imminent：If you say that something isimminent, especially something unpleasant, you mean it is almost certain to happen very soon. (尤指不好的事情) 即将发生的
Things are not as great as they first appear for this group, however. America’s frozen housing market, with homeowners unwilling to sell and lose the low rates they locked in during the cheap-money years, should alert policymakers to the dangers of long-term fixes. For mortgage-payers, there is a more straightforward reason to be wary of such lending. A lifetime rate might offer psychological safety. But it is safety you must pay through the nose to achieve.
然而，对于享受固定利率的群体来说，事情并不如起初看上去那么美好。由于很多房主都在央行大水漫灌的时代锁定了低利率，谁也不想卖房子，因此美国房地产市场如今成交量接近冰点，这一现象提示政策制定者长期固定利率的风险。对于“房奴”来说，警惕这类贷款的理由更加直接。终身不变的利率可能会带来心理上的安全感，但获得这种安全感须要付出高昂代价。
注释：
1. be wary of：对……保持警惕：对某事或某人保持警惕，小心谨慎对待
2. pay through the nose：topay too much money for something
To see why, start with how fixed rates are set. Whoever is lending to you—bank, building society or bond investor—is either borrowing the money themselves (from depositors, say) or forgoing lending it to someone else (such as by buying government bonds). In both cases they are giving up interest payments elsewhere. Your mortgage rate needs to compensate for this if they are to lend at all. One compensation method is a rate that floats on market conditions, always matching the interest payments the lender is losing elsewhere. The other is a rate that is fixed for a set number of years, at the average funding cost the lender expects over the course of the period.
要追根溯源，首先要了解固定利率的设定方式。任何贷款方——不论是银行、房屋互助协会还是债券投资者——要么是自己没钱得找别人借钱（比如向储户借钱），要么自己有钱但本来可以借给其他人（比如通过购买政府债券）。无论是哪一种，他们都承担了损失其他利息收入的机会成本。因此，如果要找他们贷款，你的抵押贷款利率就需要补偿这部分损失。一种补偿方法是利率随市场情况浮动，始终与贷款方在其他地方损失的利息相匹配。另一种是在一定年限内固定的利率，相当于贷款人在此期间预期的平均融资成本。
注释：
1.building society: 建房互助协会，常见于英联邦国家，为成员提供金融服务，类似于美国的信用合作社。（资料来源：Investopedia）
Building Society in Banking: Meaning and Examples
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/building-society.asp
What is a building society and how do they work?
https://www.comparethemarket.com/mortgages/content/building-societies/
2.forgo: to give up the enjoyment or advantage of: do without. (Merriam-Webster Dictionary) 放弃
3.at all: 常用于否定句，在肯定句中意同“absolutely”。（资料来源：Britannica Dictionary）
https://www.britannica.com/dictionary/eb/qa/how-to-use-at-all
The catch is that you might want to repay your mortgage early—to move house, for instance. On a floating rate, the lender is unlikely to mind. After all, they are able to take your repayment and lend it to someone else for the same income. But on a fixed rate, they may mind considerably. Suppose you originally agreed to pay 5% interest for 30 years, then want to pay it back at a time when the equivalent market rate has fallen to 3%. In such a scenario, your lender will no longer be able to lend out your repayment for anything like the same income. Again, they will want compensation: the two-percentage-point difference, multiplied by the however-many years left on the mortgage, multiplied by your average remaining balance. A lot, in other words.
问题在于，你可能想要提前偿还贷款——这样才好搬家，比如说。如果是浮动利率，贷款人可能不会介意。毕竟，他们收到你的还款后，可以重新进行放贷，不会损失利息收入。但固定利率就是另一回事了，会触动贷款人的神经。假设你最初同意的贷款条件是以5%的利率偿还30年，但当市场利率降至3%时你就想还款。这种情况下，你的贷款人无法以相同的利率水平重新贷出你的还款。因此，他们会要求你提供补偿：两个百分点的利息差额，乘以抵押贷款剩余年限，再乘以平均未偿还余额。简而言之就是一大笔钱。
Hence the unpopularity of 30-year fixed rates in much of the world. Few borrowers want to risk huge prepayment costs if their circumstances change and markets have moved in the wrong direction. One solution is for regulators to cap costs, but this just discourages lending on long-term fixes in the first place.
因此，30年期的固定利率贷款在全球范围内都很少见。在大环境发生变化或市场急转直下时，几乎没有借款人愿意冒险承担提前还款的高昂成本。其中一种对策是监管机构设置利率上限，不过这首先会阻碍长期固定利率贷款的发放。
注释：
拓展资料：What Is a Cap? Definition on Credit Products and How It Works
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cap.asp
Next to this, the alternative solution adopted by America and Denmark seems almost like alchemy. In both countries, mortgages can be fixed for 30 years and are prepayable at face value at the borrower’s demand. Americans experience no profit or loss regardless of how rates have moved. Danish borrowers similarly pay no penalty if rates have fallen (making their fixed rate expensive by comparison) but can realise a profit if rates have risen. This means that, unlike Americans, Danes need not worry about surrendering a cheaper-than-market rate to move, and can do so more freely.
美国和丹麦采取的另一解决之道就像炼金术。这两个国家的抵押贷款可以固定为30年，且允许借款人按照面值提前还款。无论利率怎么变化，美国借款人都不会经历损益。如果利率下降（即借款人之前所定的固定利率相对当前利率偏高），丹麦借款人同样无需支付罚金便可以提前还款，但是若利率上升，他们便可获利。这意味着，和美国不同，丹麦人在换房时依旧能享有之前锁定的低利率，因此可以更加随心所欲的换房。
Yet there is a price for everything, and in this case the price is eye-wateringly high borrowing costs. The average rate on a new, 30-year American mortgage stands at 7.2%, whereas the 30-year Treasury rate is just 4.4%. In Denmark the equivalent rates are 5.3% and 2.9%. In Britain, meanwhile, borrowing costs for mortgage-holders and the government are broadly similar. Put differently, both long-term fixes add more than a third to each of the 360 monthly mortgage repayments in question. Those who had the enviable foresight to secure rock-bottom rates a couple of years ago may not mind much. Everyone else, no matter how envious, should remember that safety doesn’t come cheap.
然而，世间的一切早已标好价格，长期固定贷款利率的代价便是惊人的高借贷成本。美国新的30年期抵押贷款平均利率是7.2%，而同时期30年期美国国债利率为4.4%。在丹麦，这两个数字分别为5.3%和2.9%。而英国抵押贷款者和政府的借贷成本大体相近。换句话说，想要锁定30年固定利率，就要多付超过1/3的贷款。那些拥有令人艳羡的远见的人，在几年前确保了最低利率，可能不太介意多交这三分之一。而其他人，无论有多么嫉妒，都需谨记安全感价格不菲。
注释：
monthly mortgage repayments每月偿还的按揭贷款
Eva，寻路中，偶尔怀念，时常向前
Vivifang，女，外币债券交易员，满眼都是鲍威尔
Summer，女，QE在职，梦想能仗走天涯 翻译/音乐 /健康
Alexis，Less is more
Cecilia，今年过得贵妇一点
Diamond，男，血汗工厂搬砖工，经济学人粉丝
3
观点|评论|思考
4
愿景
3位一笔，1位二笔
授课内容全部为CATTI实务考试相关
小班直播课，随机批改，有针对性讲解
每位同学拥有一次批改机会
02 早起打卡营
微信扫码关注该文公众号作者