欢迎来到“隐居消费时代” | 经济学人财经

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2023-11-02 00:11

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May Li，男，我要去追逐心中的太阳，还要继续努力的亚古兽

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Finance and economics | Consumerzzzzzzzzz

昏昏欲睡的消费者

英文部分选自经济学人20231028期财经板块

Finance and economics | Consumerzzzzzzzzz

昏昏欲睡的消费者

Welcome to the age of the hermit consumer

欢迎来到“隐居消费”时代

The world economy is witnessing a $600bn-a-year shift in behaviour

全球消费行为，每年6000亿之变

In some ways covid-19 was a blip. After soaring in 2020, unemployment across the rich world quickly dropped to pre-pandemic lows. Countries re-attained their pre-covid gdp in short order. And yet, more than two years after lockdowns were lifted, at least one change is enduring: consumer habits across the rich world have shifted decisively, and perhaps permanently. Welcome to the age of the hermit.

从某些角度来说，新冠疫情只导致了经济的一时脱轨。富裕国家的失业率自2020年飙升后，很快又恢复至疫情前的低点。各国的国内生产总值（GDP）也在短期内恢复到疫情前水平。不过，自解除封锁后两年多来，至少有一点未曾恢复：富裕国家的消费者习惯发生了明显的、甚至可能是不可逆转的改变。欢迎来到“隐居”时代。

注释

1.blip: an unexpected and unusual condition that is usually temporary. (Cambridge Dictionary)

2.decisive: very clear and obvious (Merriam-Webter’s Advanced Learner’s Dictionary)

Before covid, the share of consumer spending devoted to services was rising steadily. As societies became richer, they sought more luxury experiences, health care and financial planning. Then in 2020 spending on services, from hotel stays to hair cuts, collapsed. With people spending more time at home, demand for goods jumped, with a rush for computer equipment and exercise bikes.

新冠疫情暴发之前，消费中服务支出的比例稳步上升。随着社会更加富裕，对奢华体验、医疗保健和财务规划的需求也更多。然而到了2020年，从酒店住宿到理发等服务的支出大幅下降。人们居家时间越来越多，对商品的需求也随之猛增，例如电脑设备和动感单车的需求火热。

Three years on, the share of spending devoted to services remains below its pre-covid level (see chart 1). Relative to its pre-covid trend, the decline is sharper still. Rich-world consumers are spending around $600bn a year less on services than you might have expected in 2019. In particular, people are less interested in leisure activities that take place outside the home, including hospitality and recreation. Money is being redirected to goods, ranging from durables like chairs and fridges, to things such as clothes, food and wine.

三年了，服务消费的比例仍低于疫情前水平（见图1）。与疫情前的稳步上升趋势做对比，如今的服务消费疲软更加明显。现在，富裕国家服务消费每年要比2019年时预期的减少6000亿美元。人们对户外休闲活动的兴趣下降尤为明显，比如酒店和娱乐。消费重新转向至商品，包括椅子、冰箱等耐用品，以及衣服、食物、酒水等消耗品。

In countries that spent less time in lockdown, hermit habits have not become ingrained. Elsewhere, though, the behaviour looks pathological. In the Czech Republic, which was whacked by covid, the services share is three percentage points below trend. America is not far off. Japan has witnessed a 50% decline in restaurant bookings for client entertainment and other business purposes. Pity the drunken salaryman staggering round Tokyo’s pleasure districts: he is an endangered species.

在封锁时间相对短的国家，“隐居”习惯并未深入人心。然而在其他地方，“隐居”行为似乎靡然成风。在遭受新冠疫情重创的捷克共和国，服务业份额比预期趋势水平低了三个百分点。美国也差不多。在日本，涉及招待客户和其他商业目的的餐厅预订量遭遇腰斩。可惜啊，那些醉酒后在东京娱乐区摇摇晃晃的工薪族已成了濒临“灭绝”的物种。

注释：

1.Ingrain：to work indelibly into the natural texture or mental or moral constitution vt. 使...根深蒂固；

Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/ingrain

2.Pathological：of or relating to pathology adj.病理学的

Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/pathological

At first glance, the figures are difficult to reconcile with the anecdotes. Isn’t it harder than ever to get a table at a restaurant? Yet the true source of the crowding is not sky-high demand, but constrained supply. These days fewer people want to work in hospitality—in America employment in the industry remains lower than in 2019. And pandemic disruption means many new hotels and restaurants that would have opened in 2020 and 2021 never did. The number of hotels in Britain, at around 10,000, has not grown since 2019.

乍一看，这些数据似乎与我们生活中的感受不符。相比之前，现在在餐馆订桌难道不是更难了吗？然而，“抢手”的真正根源并不是需求高涨，而是供应不足。如今，愿意从事酒店业的人越来越少——在美国，该行业的就业人数仍低于2019年。疫情干扰导致许多本应在2020年和2021年开业的新酒店和餐馆从未开业。英国的酒店数量约1万家，自2019年以来没有增长。

注释：

Anecdote：a usually short narrative of an interesting, amusing, or biographical incident n.轶事；趣闻。在这里，“anecdotes”指的是一些具体的个人经历或事件描述，而不是基于全面数据分析得出的结论。

Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/anecdotes

Firms are noticing the $600bn shift. In a recent earnings call an executive at Darden Restaurants, which runs one of America’s finest restaurant chains, Olive Garden, noted that, relative to pre-covid times, “we’re probably in that 80% range in terms of traffic”. At Home Depot, which sells tools to improve homes, revenue is up by about 15% on 2019 in real terms. Goldman Sachs, a bank, tracks the share prices of companies that benefit when people stay at home (such as e-commerce firms) and those that thrive when people are out (such as airlines). Even today, the market looks favourably upon firms that serve stay-at-homers (see chart 2).

众多企业都察觉到了这6000亿美元的转变。达登餐饮公司 (Darden Restaurant) 经营着美国一流连锁餐厅橄榄园 (Olive Garden)。该公司的一位高管在最近的业绩电话会议上指出：相较于疫情前，“我们目前的客流量可能为当时的八成”。销售房屋装修工具的家得宝 (Home Depot) 实际收入相比2019年增长了约15%。高盛银行追踪了那些在人们居家时获利的企业股价（如电商公司）以及那些在人们外出时蓬勃发展的企业股价（如航空公司）。即便在当下，市场仍看好为居家者提供服务的公司（见图 2）。

注释：

1. Darden Restaurants: 达登餐饮公司是北美最大的多品牌全方位服务餐饮公司。该公司旗下以经营休闲餐厅为主。Source:

https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-hans/%E9%81%94%E7%99%BB%E9%A4%90%E9%A3%B2%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8

2.Olive Garden: 橄榄园（英語：Olive Garden）是美国一家连锁餐厅，以美式意大利菜为特色。其总部位于美国佛罗里达奥兰多，目前由达登餐饮公司所拥有。

Source: https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh/%E6%A9%84%E6%A6%84%E5%9B%AD_(%E9%A4%90%E5%8E%85)#:~:text=%E6%A9%84%E6%A6%84%E5%9B%AD%EF%BC%88%E8%8B%B1%E8%AA%9E%EF%BC%9AOlive%20Garden,%E7%99%BB%E9%A4%90%E9%A5%AE%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%E6%89%80%E6%8B%A5%E6%9C%89%E3%80%82

Why has hermit behaviour endured? The first possible reason is that some tremulous folk remain afraid of infection, whether by covid or something else. In Britain, car use is in line with the pre-covid norm, whereas public-transport use is well down. People also seem less keen on up-close-and-personal services. In America spending on hairdressing and personal grooming is 20% below its pre-covid trend, while spending on cosmetics, perfumes and nail preparations is up by a quarter.

为什么“隐居”行为会持续存在？第一个可能的理由是，一些神经紧张的人仍然害怕被新冠或其他病毒感染。在英国，汽车使用和疫情前水平持平，但是公共交通使用下降明显。人们似乎也不那么热衷于近距离的私人服务了。在美国，用于理发和个人美容的支出较新冠疫情前的趋势下降20%，而用于化妆品、香水和美甲用品的支出则增长了25%。

注释：

tremulous (literary) （因紧张）颤抖的，战栗的；shaking slightly because you are nervous; causing you to shake slightly

The second reason relates to work patterns. Across the rich world people now work about one day a week at home, according to Cevat Giray Aksoy of King’s College London and colleagues. This cuts demand for services bought at the office, including lunches, and raises demand for do-it-yourself goods. Last year Italians spent 34% more on glassware, tableware and household utensils than in 2019.

第二个理由和工作模式有关。根据伦敦国王学院的 Cevat Giray Aksoy及其同事的说法，目前富裕国家的人们，每周大约有一天在家工作。这就减少了在办公室购买午餐等服务的需求，而增加了对自己动手制作物品的需求。去年，意大利人用于玻璃器皿、餐具和家用器具的支出较2019年增加了34%。

The third relates to values. Covid may have made people genuinely more hermit-like. According to official data from America, last year people slept 11 minutes more a day than in 2019. They also spent less on clubs that require membership and other social activities, and more on solitary pursuits, such as gardening and pets. Meanwhile, global online searches for “Patience”, a card game otherwise known as Solitaire, are running at about twice their pre-pandemic level. Covid’s biggest legacy, it seems, has been to pull people apart.

第三个理由和价值观相关。新冠可能已经让人们真正隐士化。根据美国的官方数据，去年人们每天的睡眠时间比2019年多11分钟。他们也更少去参加需要会员资格的俱乐部活动及其他社交活动，将更多的时间用于园艺、宠物等独处爱好。同时，卡牌游戏“耐心”（Patience）的全球搜索量达到疫情前水平的两倍——“纸牌接龙”这名儿是不是听起来更熟悉一点。新冠远去，余波尚在，减一分熙熙攘攘，多一分人间疏离。

翻译组：

Eva，寻路中，偶尔怀念，时常向前

Martina: 走在know thyself 的道路上

Jessie, 爱阳光，爱细雨，爱经济学人

校对组：

Lora, 很帅但是吃冰棒舔手

Cecilia, 今年过得贵妇一点

Hannah,做个废柴，保持愉快

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