钻石为什么不香了？| 经济学人财经
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Finance and economics | Buttonwood
财经 | 梧桐树专栏
英文部分选自经济学人20230916期财经板块
Finance and economics | Buttonwood
财经板块 | 梧桐树专栏
Why diamonds are losing their allure
钻石为什么不香了
As an investment category, at least
钻石作为投资品类为什么不香了？
The appeal of a diamond, for a ring on a finger or to string on a necklace, rests on its sparkle. Its precise value is determined by how well the stone is cut, its colour, its size (also called its “carat”) and whether it contains flaws. The clearer, heavier, closer to colourless and more perfectly cut the rock, the better.
无论是镶在戒指上，还是嵌在项链上，钻石的吸引力都在于它闪耀的光芒。钻石的具体价值取决于原石切割的好坏、颜色、大小（也称为“克拉“）以及净度。钻石越纯净、越重、越接近无色、切割越完美，其价值便越高。
The appeal of a diamond for an investor is that, in addition to being nice to look at, it has historically offered a steady return on investment. Given the opacity of the market, and the broad variety of gems that are available, long-run price data are scarce. But a paper by Luc Renneboog of Tilburg University, which was published in 2015, analysed thousands of auctions each year, finding that the average return between 1999 and 2012 rivalled those of stocks and property. Holders of diamonds would have earned a handsome 8% or so a year.
除了好看之外，钻石对投资者的吸引力还在于其历来稳定的投资回报。由于市场的不透明性，以及可投资的宝石种类繁多，钻石的长期价格数据十分稀少。但蒂尔堡大学（Tilburg University）的雷尼布格（Luc Renneboog）发现，1999年至2012年间，钻石的平均回报率堪比股票和房地产。雷尼布格分析了世界各地举行的大量拍卖会（每年可达数千场之多），并在2015年发表了其研究成果。钻石持有者每年可以获得8%左右的可观收益。
注释:
opacity: N-UNCOUNT 不可数名词 模糊；不透明 Opacity is the quality of being difficult to see through.He insisted that the mineral content of the water determined the opacity.他坚持认为水的清澈程度取决于其中矿物质的含量。
Recently, though, these steady returns have given way to enormous volatility. De Beers, a consortium that has long monopolised the supply of diamonds, has reduced the price of two-to-four carat uncut stones—a popular category because they can be made into one-to-two carat engagement rings—by 40%, according to Bloomberg, a news service. On September 13th the company announced that it would re-run its iconic “a diamond is forever” advertising campaign in an attempt to boost demand.
然而最近，钻石的回报已经变得极不稳定。据彭博社报道，长期垄断钻石供应的财团戴比尔斯（De Beers）已将2至4克拉未切割原石的价格降低了40%。2-4克拉原石是一个很受欢迎的品类，因为它们可以制成1至2克拉的订婚戒指。9月13日，为提振需求，该公司宣布将重新推出其标志性的“钻石恒久远，一颗永流传”广告活动。
注释：
De Beers：1938年，戴比尔斯公司做了一个活动，这个活动的内容是鼓励人们在订婚时，情侣双方交换订婚钻戒，还拍了广告，并且为广告写了“钻石恒久远、一颗永流传”的经典广告词。其实在这之前，人们并没有结婚时交换钻戒的习惯，由于戴比尔斯的营销实在是太成功了，影响了美国，进而影响了全世界。
Stable returns in the past were partly brought about by steady demand. Just as with the investment case for gold, another rare and precious commodity, the logic for holding diamonds tends to be strongest during periods of economic uncertainty. At the same time, the main use of diamonds is in jewellery, which means that prices have tended to do well during periods of prosperity, too.
过去的稳定回报在一定程度上得益于稳定的需求。与黄金一样，钻石是稀缺而贵重的商品；因此，经济面临的不确定性越大，人们就越是想要持有钻石。与此同时，钻石的主要用途是制作珠宝，这意味着在经济繁荣时期，其价格往往也颇为可观。
But the most important factor was monopolistic supply. For more than a century De Beers managed to dominate the production of gems. This market structure facilitated steady price increases in two ways, as Mr Renneboog has noted. First, by stockpiling supplies De Beers created scarcity. Second, the firm curbed speculation, and the volatility it brings. Although De Beers controlled some 80% of the global supply of diamonds in the 1980s, since then its share has been eaten into by competitors, which include Alrosa, a Russian rival. The company now produces just a third of supply.
但最重要的因素是垄断供应。一个多世纪以来，戴比尔斯公司一直是宝石生产领域的龙头。雷尼布格发现，这样的市场结构通过两种方式促进了价格的稳步上涨。首先，戴比尔斯公司通过囤积居奇来制造稀缺性。其次，公司抑制了投机活动及其带来的波动性。上世纪80年代初，戴比尔斯公司控制着全球约80%的钻石供应；但此后，其市场份额逐渐为竞争对手所蚕食，包括来自俄罗斯的阿尔罗萨公司（Alrosa）。现在，戴比尔斯生产的钻石仅占全球市场的三分之一。
Another problem is emerging from laboratories. They are producing artificial gems, which are made by applying pressure to carbon, rather than digging stones from the ground, and are identical to the naked eye. Such stones have been available since the 1980s, but even as recently as 2018 made up a tiny fraction of the market, at just a few percentage points. In the years since, more lab-grown jewels have entered the market—and their market share has risen to around a tenth.
另一个问题来自生产人造钻石的实验室。天然钻石挖掘自地下，人造钻石则是通过对碳加压获得，但肉眼很难分辨二者的区别。人造钻石诞生于上世纪80年代，直至2018年也只有区区几个百分点的市场份额。但此后几年，越来越多的实验室培育宝石进入市场，市场份额已上升到10%左右。
注释：
人造宝石：常见的人造方法，就是靠超高温加热加压的方法，在实验室里模拟出天然钻石形成的环境，让碳种子结晶成钻石，相当于用人为的手段速成钻石。
De Beers may have inadvertently hastened this transition. The company began to sell lab-grown diamonds at rock-bottom prices in 2018, when such stones fetched about 80% of the price of mined ones. The goal was to differentiate between the two types of gems, in order to diminish the appeal of lab-grown stones. The Clear Cut, a New York-based purveyor of engagement rings, has adopted guerrilla marketing tactics to make the same point. It offers customers who buy a ring worth $10,000 or more a free lab-grown alternative, which can be used as a “travel ring” when visiting dubious places. Many lab-grown stones now fetch just 20-30% of the price of similar mined stones.
戴比尔斯公司可能无意中给这一转变添了把火。2018年，公司开始以低价出售实验室培育钻石，价格仅为天然开采钻石的80%左右。其目的是区分这两种钻石，以削弱培育宝石的吸引力。位于纽约的订婚戒指销售商Clear Cut所见略同；他们采用的是游击营销的方式：公司向购买1万美元及以上戒指的顾客免费赠送一款实验室培育钻石作为替代品，美其名曰“旅行戒指”，用于前往条件不好的地方时佩戴。目前许多实验室培育宝石的价格仅为同类天然开采宝石的20%到30%。
注釋：
guerrilla marketing:游击营销，“游击营销”的理念是由美国资深营销专家杰伊·莱文森首创，原本是教导中小企业如何用微薄的营销预算“以小搏大”，吸引消费者目光的方法，许多大型企业也摆脱传统的营销方法，开始采用游击营销。游击营销经过近20 年的理论发展和实践，已经成为“非传统和反传统营销”的代名词，并且衍生出一系列的反传统营销策略，与传统营销方法分庭抗礼。
De Beers argues that, as the supply of lab-grown gems accelerates, the price gap between the two types of stone will continue to widen, making the newcomers unappealing for engagements. If recent price movements are anything to go by, though, the tactic appears likely to backfire—after all, mined prices are plunging in the wake of lab-grown ones.
戴比尔斯认为：随着人造钻石的供应加速，两类钻石的价格差将进一步扩大，从而使人工钻石不再具有吸引力。不过，根据最近的价格走势来看，这一策略似乎可能会事与愿违——毕竟，天然钻石价格正尾随着人工钻石一路暴跌。
注释：
1. If x is anything to go by (then)…根据我们的经验；根据说话者的经验
Source: https://englishhome.org/if-x-is-anything-to-go-by-then.html
2.In the wake of: close behind and in the same path of travel; as a result of : as a consequence of
Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/in%20the%20wake%20of
延伸阅读：
《钻石革命进行时（二），渗透的充分条件与必要条件》
Source: https://xueqiu.com/9300140683/223420383
Admittedly, this may not be entirely the result of a structural shift in the market. American couples date for about three years before getting engaged, and thanks to covid-19 very few people were out and about meeting potential husbands or wives in 2020. An unusually small number of people are probably getting engaged this year.
诚然，这或许并不完全是市场结构性转变的结果。美国夫妇在订婚前通常会交往三年左右，而由于新冠2020年鲜有人能外出与未来对象见面。今年订婚的人可能少得可怜。
But this is the sort of fluctuation an all-powerful diamond cartel would have been able to smooth out by reducing supply. Slashing prices instead is a clear indication of diminished market power. That is good news for those looking to pop the question or acquire a new trinket. It is rather less appealing for those considering investing in the gems.
但一个强大的钻石垄断集团可以通过减少供应来平息这种波动。相反，大幅降价是市场力量减弱的明确信号。对于那些想要求婚或购买新饰品的人来说，这是个好消息；对于考虑投资钻石的人而言，这就不是什么好事了。
注释：
卡特尔（英语：Cartel；德语：Kartell），或称垄断联盟、垄断利益集团、企业联合、同业联盟、行业联合会等等，是一种垄断集团，很容易发生在少数资源被数个企业完全掌握的情况下，为了避免过度竞争导致的整体利益下跌，由一系列生产类似产品的企业组成的联盟，是卡特尔垄断组织的一种表现形式。
Source: https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-hans/%E5%8D%A1%E7%89%B9%E5%B0%94
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