高温高价低预算—这不是一个宁静的夏天 | 经济学人财经

2023-08-03 02:08

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Finance and economics | Turning up the heat

调高热度

英文部分选自经济学人20230729期财经版块

Finance and economics | Turning up the heat

调高热度

Soaring temperatures and food prices threaten violent unrest

狂飙的温度和食品价格可能引发剧烈动荡

Expect a long, hot, uncomfortable summer

预计会是一个漫长、炎热、令人不适的夏天

Protests have a funny way of kicking off when the mercury soars. The summer of 1967 is best known as “the summer of love”. It was a time when hippies flocked to America’s west coast to protest war, take drugs and peace out. But it was also a time when more than 150 race riots struck everywhere from Atlanta to Boston amid brutal temperatures, earning the period another name: “The long, hot summer.”

在温度飙升的时候，抗议活动会以一种有趣的方式拉开帷幕。1967年的夏天最著名的别称是“爱之夏”。当时，嬉皮士们蜂拥至美国西海岸，抗议战争，滥用毒品，醉生梦死。但也正是在这段时间，在炎炎烈日下，从亚特兰大到波士顿，发生了150多起种族骚乱，让这一时期有了另一个名字：“漫长而炽烈的夏天”。

注释：

1. mercury: Mercuryis a silver-coloured liquid metal that is used especially in thermometers and barometers. 水银

2.the summer of love：1967 年的夏天，美国爆发大规模的嬉皮士集会，这场运动又被称作“The Summer of Love”。嬉皮士们拒绝对现代主义的顺从，主要特点是呼吁和平，鼓吹性解放，反物质主义，崇尚精神生活等。

3.flock：If peopleflock to a particular place or event, a very large number of them go there, usually because it is pleasant or interesting. 云集于

4.peace out：to become unconscious, to pass out.

As the world warms, the link between heat and social disturbance is an increasingly important one and, this summer, an especially concerning one. Each upheaval has its own causes, but certain factors make disturbances more likely everywhere. Surging temperatures, rising food prices and cuts to public spending—three of the strongest predictors of turmoil—have driven estimates of the potential for unrest to unprecedented highs in recent months. These estimates will probably rise higher still this summer. Temperatures are unlikely to have peaked. Russia’s exit from the Black Sea Grain Initiative to export supplies from Ukraine and India’s recent ban on rice exports may raise the price of staples. Social unrest is already bubbling in Kenya, India, Israel and South Africa.

随着全球变暖，高温和社会动荡之间的关联日益显著，而这一点在今年夏天尤其令人担忧。每一场动荡都自有其根源，但某些因素使动荡更加可能随处爆发。气温飙升、食品价格上涨和公共开支削减——这三个最有可能引发动荡的因素——已将这几个月发生动荡的可能性预测推升至了前所未有的高度。今年夏天，这些预测值可能还会继续上升。气温似乎尚未达到峰值。俄罗斯退出了为从乌克兰出口物资而专门设立的黑海谷物倡议，印度最近也禁止了大米出口：这些都可能会提高主要粮食的价格。肯尼亚、印度、以色列和南非的社会动荡已经加剧。

注释：

1. upheaval：Anupheaval is a big change which causes a lot of trouble, confusion, and worry. 动乱

2. unrest：If there isunrest in a particular place or society, people are expressing anger and dissatisfaction about something, often by demonstrating or rioting. 骚乱

3. Black Sea Grain Initiative：《黑海谷物倡议》是2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰期间，由联合国、俄罗斯、土耳其和乌克兰四方达成的倡议，俄罗斯同意开放海上安全通道，允许经由黑海“海上人道主义走廊”，让货船从乌克兰的三个主要港口（切尔诺莫斯克港、敖德萨港和南方港）向世界各地出口谷物和其他食品。7月17日，俄罗斯宣布停止继续参与，使该协议在18日凌晨到期后失效。

The summer of our discontent

不满之夏

In the first week of July the mean global temperature crossed the 17°C threshold for the first time, reaching a steamy 17.08°C. The average global temperature for the month as a whole is poised to be warmer than the hottest previous single-day average on record. This sort of weather spells trouble. In a study published in Science, Marshall Burke of Stanford University and Solomon Hsiang and Edward Miguel of the University of California, Berkeley, show that an uptick in temperature of just one standard deviation above the long-term mean—the kind of deviation a statistician expects to observe about once every six days—drives an increase in the frequency of unrest of almost 15%.

7月的第一周，全球平均温度首次冲破了17摄氏度的门槛，达到了“热气腾腾”的17.08摄氏度。本月全球平均温度有望超过有记录以来最高单日平均气温。这样的高温会带来麻烦。斯坦福大学的马歇尔·伯克（Marshall Burke）和加州大学伯克利分校的所罗门·谢（Solomon Hsiang）和爱德华·米格尔（Edward Miguel）在《科学》期刊上发表的一篇研究表明，气温超过长期平均气温一个标准差（统计意义上出现高于均值一标准差的概率约六分之一），社会动荡频率就会增加近15%。

In the eight weeks since the start of June, the average global temperature has simmered at a consistent four to six standard deviations above levels recorded from 1980 to 2000. Our rough calculations, which extrapolate the relationship indicated in the Science study, suggest that record temperatures in June and July could have raised the global risk of violent social unrest by somewhere in the region of 50%. The effects of El Niño, a weather pattern that brings warmer temperatures worldwide and recently got under way, are likely to produce a scorching end to the northern summer and start to the southern summer. Indeed, the phenomenon has coincided with more than one-fifth of all civil conflicts that have taken place since 1950.

6月初以来的八周里，全球平均气温一直保持在比1980-2000年记录水平高出4到6个标准差的水平。基于前文《科学》研究的逻辑，我们进行了粗略计算，结果表明6月和7月创纪录的高温可能会导致全球社会暴力动荡风险提高50%左右。导致全球气温升高的厄尔尼诺现象已于近期成形。这将导致北半球夏季以酷暑结束，同时以酷热开启南半球的夏季。事实上，1950年以来，超五分之一的国内冲突都伴着厄尔尼诺现象。

Verisk Maplecroft, a risk-intelligence company, maintains a civil-unrest index that forecasts the potential for business disruption caused by social disturbances, including violent upheaval, on a country-by-country basis. According to the firm’s estimates, the risk of global social unrest in the third quarter of 2023 is the highest since the index was created in 2017. That is because of both heat and the higher cost of living, says Jimena Blanco, the firm’s lead analyst. “High rates of food price inflation are a particular risk,” she warns.

风险资讯公司Verisk Maplecroft发表的社会动荡指数（civil-unrest index），按照国别来预测社会不安事件（如暴力动荡）对商业的潜在影响。基于该公司的预测，2023年第3季度全球社会动荡风险位于2017年该指数诞生以来的最高点。公司的首席分析师吉米纳•布兰科（Jimena Blanco）表示这主要是因为高温和高生活成本。她警告称：“食品通胀率居高不下是个尤为显著的风险”。

Global inflation seems to have passed a peak, and international grain prices are lower than last year’s high. But that does not mean prices paid by consumers have stopped rising. In June annual food-price inflation was 17% in Britain, 14% in the eu and nearing 10% in Canada and Japan. It is higher still in many developing economies, especially those in Africa. Food-price inflation is close to 25% in Nigeria, 30% in Ethiopia and 65% in Egypt (the highest rate in the country’s history).

全球通胀似乎已经越过峰值，且国际谷物价格低于去年的高点。但这不意味着消费者支付的价格停止了攀升。六月，英国的食品通胀率高达为17%，欧盟为14%，加拿大和日本则接近于10%。而很多发展中国家特别是非洲国家的食品通胀率甚至更高。尼日利亚的食品通胀率接近25%，埃塞俄比亚是30%，埃及则高达65%（该国史上最高）。

Bread-and-butter issues

生计问题

Lower wholesale prices should in time feed through to consumers. But Russia’s choice to scupper the Black Sea Grain Initiative on July 17th, which was followed by four nights of attacks on the Ukrainian ports of Chornomorsk and Odessa in the Black Sea, has disturbed food markets, pushing prices in the opposite direction. Dry conditions elsewhere are also likely to exacerbate difficulties. Yields of Australian barley and wheat are forecast to decline by 34% and 30% this harvest. Stocks of American maize, wheat and sorghum are down by 6%, 17% and 51%. Last year these countries were the world’s two biggest exporters of the cereals by value.

批发价格走低，最终应会传导到消费者手中。然而，俄罗斯于7月17日决定终止黑海谷物倡议，随后连续四晚袭击了乌克兰位于切尔诺莫尔斯克和敖德萨的黑海港口，这一举动扰乱了粮食市场，食品价格不跌反增。其他地区的干旱也可能让这一情况雪上加霜。预计，今年澳大利亚大麦和小麦产量将分别下降34%和30%；美国玉米、小麦和高粱的库存分别下降6%、17%和51%。去年，这两个国家是世界上产值最大的两个谷物出口国。

注释：

1.Scupper: to defeat or put an end to verb.终止

Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/scupper

2.the Black Sea Grain Initiative 《黑海谷物倡议》是2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰期间，由联合国、俄罗斯、土耳其和乌克兰四方达成的倡议，该倡议允许经由黑海“海上人道主义走廊”，从乌克兰的三个主要港口向世界各地出口谷物和其他食品。协议签订后，小麦价格跌至战前水平。

Source1: https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative/vessel-movements

Source2: https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-hans/%E9%BB%91%E6%B5%B7%E8%B0%B7%E7%89%A9%E5%80%A1%E8%AE%AE

3.Exacerbate：to make more violent, bitter, or severe v.使恶化；使加重

Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/exacerbate

4.Sorghum n.高粱

延伸阅读：

1.《俄罗斯撤出联合国粮食协议，威胁世界粮食供应》

Source: https://share.america.gov/zh-hans/russia-leaves-u-n-grain-deal-threatening-world-food-supply/

2.《黑海谷物倡议是什么？为何对世界如此重要？》

Source: https://news.un.org/zh/story/2022/09/1109621

More concerning still are events in India, which produces roughly 40% of global rice exports, and has suffered from debilitating rains this year. On July 20th the government responded by banning exports of all non-Basmati rice from the country. This will reduce global rice exports by about 10%, with almost immediate effect. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation estimates that together maize, rice and wheat provide more than two-fifths of the world’s calorific intake. Among the world’s poorest populations, the figure may rise to four-fifths. If prices do not start to fall soon, people will only get hungrier. And hungrier people are more likely to hit the streets.

更令人忧心忡忡的是印度发生的事件——该国生产的大米约占全球大米出口量的40%，但今年却惨遭致命暴雨。为应对这一情况，7月20日，印政府颁布禁令，严禁出口除巴斯马蒂(basmati)香米以外的所有大米。这将使全球大米出口量减少约10%，立即对全球粮食市场产生影响。联合国粮农组织预计：玉米、大米和小麦提供了全球超五分之二的热量摄入量。在全球最贫困人口中，这一数字可能会高达五分之四。若价格不尽快下跌，人们只会变得更加饥肠辘辘。而饥饿的人更有可能走上街头。

注释：

1.Debilitating：causing serious impairment of strength or ability to function

Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/debilitating

2.Basmati rice 巴斯马蒂香米（英语：Basmati），也称印度香米，长米，是一种大米，以其细腻和极佳的香气而闻名。主要种植于印度和巴基斯坦。巴斯马蒂来源于梵语，意味甜。

Source: https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%B7%B4%E6%96%AF%E9%A9%AC%E8%92%82%E9%A6%99%E7%B1%B3#:~:text=%E5%B7%B4%E6%96%AF%E9%A9%AC%E8%92%82%E9%A6%99%E7%B1%B3%EF%BC%88%E8%8B%B1%E8%AF%AD%EF%BC%9ABasmati%EF%BC%89%EF%BC%8C,%E4%BA%8E%E6%A2%B5%E8%AF%AD%EF%BC%8C%E6%84%8F%E5%91%B3%E7%94%9C%E3%80%82

延伸阅读：《印度大米出口禁令影响几何》

Source: https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2023/07-24/10048521.shtml

Fiscal austerity may further destabilise things. Many governments have committed to raising taxes or cutting expenditures in order to bring debt under control after lavish spending during covid-19. Jacopo Ponticelli of Northwestern University and Hans-Joachim Voth of the University of Zurich investigated almost a century of data from 25 European economies. They discovered that each additional 5% cut in government spending increases the frequency of social unrest by 28%.

财政紧缩可能会进一步引发诸多不稳定因素。由于新冠疫情期间开支巨大，许多国家都宣称计划增加税收或削减公共支出，以减少债务。西北大学的Jacopo Ponticelli教授和苏黎世大学的Hans-Joachim Voth教授调查了25个欧洲国家将近100年的数据，发现政府开支每减少5%，社会动荡的频率就会增加28%。

注释：

lavish: to expend or bestow with profusion. (Merriam-Webster Dictionary) 挥霍

Social upheaval can have a scarring effect on economies, too. Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Samuel Pienknagura and Luca Ricci, all of the imf, recently looked at 35 years of quarterly data from 130 countries. They found that even 18 months after a moderate episode of social unrest a country’s gdp remains 0.2% lower. By contrast, 18 months after a major episode of unrest a country’s gdp remains 1% lower.

社会动荡同时会给经济带来“疤痕效应”。国际货币基金组织（IMF）的三位经济学家Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov、Samuel Pienknagura和Luca Ricci最近研究了130个国家35年间的季度数据发现，中型动荡过去18个月后，GDP依旧较之前低0.2%，而如果是大规模动乱，这一数字将达到1%。

注释：

1.scarring effect：疤痕效应，指对经济产生的负面影响短期内难以消除。

拓展资料：

What is Economic Scarring?

https://www.tutor2u.net/economics/reference/what-is-economic-scarring

《刘晓曙：疤痕效应下的经济复苏》

https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1768207252542939780&wfr=spider&for=pc

2.有关IMF团队研究的拓展阅读（中文通讯+英文博客）

国际金融通讯（2021年第27期，总第43期）- 第一篇

https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1706293839350053992&wfr=spider&for=pc

(2023) The prospects of renewed social unrest cast a shadow on the economic outlook.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2023/05/15/the-prospects-of-renewed-social-unrest-cast-a-shadow-on-the-economic-outlook/

(2021) Could Renewed Social Unrest Hinder the Recovery?

https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2021/07/13/could-renewed-social-unrest-hinder-the-recovery

Countries beyond the rich world have a more concerning outlook. The damage done by unrest is about twice as large in emerging markets as in advanced economies, according to the imf researchers, with lower business and consumer confidence, and heightened uncertainty, exacerbating the much greater risk of sudden capital flight. This bodes ill for what is set to be a year of rising food prices, boiling weather and spending cuts. Expect a long, hot, uncomfortable summer.

非富裕国家的前景更是令人担忧。IMF的3位研究者指出，社会动荡对新兴国家造成的伤害约是发达经济体的两倍之多；新兴经济体中资本突然外逃风险远高于富裕国家，而企业与消费者信心的降低以及经济前景不确定性的增加又进一步加剧了这一风险。这预示着，今年注定将是惨淡的一年：食品价格上涨，天气异常炎热，财政紧缩。可以想见这将是个漫长、难耐的酷暑。

注释：

1.business confidence：商业信心，企业家信心

参见：百度百科-商业信心指数

2.capital flight：资本外逃

参见：https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capitalflight.asp

2.bode (v.) ill / well: to show or suggest that future developments or events will be unfavorable / favorable. (Merriam-Webster Dictionary) 不好/好的预兆

翻译组：

Eva 寻路中，偶尔怀念，时常向前

Summerr stay hungry, stay foolish

Martina 女，爱电影爱生活，爱金融经济

Vivifang 女，外币债券交易员，满眼都是鲍威尔

Vic 男，曾在52街和第6大道的投行人，目前的券商兵；市场和历史的学生

校对组：

Hannah 做个废柴，保持愉快

Claire 进进退退，摇摇摆摆，探索世界ing

Diamond 男，血汗工厂搬砖工，经济学人粉丝

观点|评论|思考

本期感想

Cleo，男，学习不停，思考不止，努力成为审慎却乐观的深入思考者

本文提出了今年较高的气温或将对环球经济有着较为不利的影响，这个角度鲜有出现在专业的研究报告中，本文作为媒体来说提出了一个较为宏观且有建设性的观点。如文章所说的，高温多雨的天气对农作物的生产以及交通运输的影响不容小觑。目前来说，经过多轮紧缩性的货币政策的实施，经济放缓程度已经快要逼近临界值，全世界目前都在高度关注各种会影响经济萎靡的因素，但天气因素，我们很难控制。

贯穿人类发展，无论资本主义时代有没有到来，我们都能很好的掌握“临界值”这个概念。早在人类社会发展初期，我们利用各种所能使用的工具提高生产效率的同时也驯服了小麦等可以较肉类相对稳定地为我们提供热量的食物，此后我们的社会就高速发展与迭代，无论是天气原因还是政治原因，在每一次的更迭中，我们都可以见证到社会的停滞，也可以见证解决问题后的高速发展。从周而复始的周期中可以看出我们的习性从来没有变过，无论何时不会有能力干预类似厄尔尼诺这样的自然现象，而经济只是我们用来判断我们的族群入互相合作的工具，从而可以更高效的应对危机，也可以更安全的保证我们的族群可以最大程度且最精确的接近那个“临界点”。

愿景