奢侈品行业能否躲过经济衰退的镰刀？ | 经济学人商业

Business | Champagne lifestyle

商业 | 纸醉金迷

Business | Champagne lifestyle

商业 | 纸醉金迷

Is the luxury sector recession-proof?

奢侈品行业能否躲过经济衰退的镰刀？

Not all high-end brands will lose their shine

即便时过境迁，有些高端品牌依旧光彩夺目

注释：

champagne lifestyle: a lifestyle involving the enjoyment of luxuries and expensive pleasures (source: Collins)

Hermès is a byword for exclusivity. Its signature Birkin bag, one of which sold for $450,000 last year, cannot be bought from the luxury firm’s website or by simply walking into a store. There are neither ads in fashion magazines nor glossy campaigns on Instagram. For the not-so-famous, owning a Birkin can involve a years-long waiting list.

爱马仕（Hermès）是“专属”的代名词。去年，爱马仕一款经典铂金包售价高达45万美元，顾客还无法从这家奢侈品公司的官网或门店购买。时尚杂志上从不见铂金包的广告，Instagram上也没有它光彩夺目的宣传。对无名之流而言，拥有一个铂金包可能需等上数年。

Part of the reason for the wait is constrained supply, which Hermès manages with the precision worthy of its stitching. But another part is booming demand for all manner of luxury goodies. Last year net profits of Kering, which owns fashion labels such as Gucci and Balenciaga, rose by 14%. Those at LVMH, owner of Tiffany and Louis Vuitton, among other brands, grew by nearly a quarter. Hermès and Richemont, which owns Cartier, among other baubles, each saw theirs surge by more than a third. Together, the four groups raked in over €33bn ($35bn) in profits, on combined revenues of around $130bn.

如此漫长的等待，部分原因是铂金包限量供应，爱马仕配货严谨性堪比其卓越的缝纫工艺。另一个原因是市场对各类奢侈品的需求不断上升。去年，旗下坐拥古驰与巴黎世家等时尚品牌的开云集团净利润增长14%；拥有蒂凡尼与路易威登等大牌的路威酩轩集团净利润则增长了近四分之一；爱马仕和拥有卡地亚等饰品品牌的历峰集团利润均上涨了超过三分之一。这四家奢侈品巨头总收入达1300亿美元左右，共收获超过330亿欧元的利润（约合350亿美元）。

That, though, was before persistent inflation and rising interest rates to combat it fanned fears of a global recession. Now, as those fears intensify, luxury brands are losing their shine, at least in the eyes of investors. Luxury bosses’ unease expressed at an industry pow-wow on May 22nd provoked a sell-off that wiped $65bn, or 7%, from the four luxury groups’ collective market value. Once shareholders stop quaking in their Louboutins, they may pay closer attention to two things in order to assess their luxury stocks’ prospects.

不过，那都是在通货膨胀居高不下以及为应对通胀而不断加息导致民众担忧发生全球经济衰退之前。现在的情况是，随着上述担忧加剧，奢侈品牌的光芒逐渐暗淡，至少在投资者们眼中是如此。5月22日，奢侈品公司老板们在行业集会上释放出不安的信号，引发了一轮股票抛售潮，四大奢侈品集团的总市值蒸发650亿美元，跌幅达7%。待脚踩路铂廷的投资者们从颤抖中缓过神后，他们可能会更加关注如下两个因素来评估他们手中奢侈品股票的未来走势。

The first is a brand’s positioning within the luxury business. Mid-market houses that target the merely affluent, such as Ralph Lauren, a maker of polo-themed apparel, are more sensitive to economic headwindsthan top-end brands catering to the obscenely wealthy. This was already evident last year. Shoppers who had shelled out up to €1,000 on designer goods before the pandemic cut their average spending in half in 2022, according to Bernstein, a broker. By contrast, the truly loaded more than doubled theirs. These days just 5% of buyers account for two-fifths of global luxury sales.

首先是品牌在奢侈品行业的定位。以富裕人群为销售目标的中端品牌，比如以马球为设计主题的服装制造商拉尔夫·劳伦，对经济逆风的反应要比针对富豪群体的高端品牌更为敏感。这一点在去年就显而易见了。据经纪公司伯恩斯坦称，在疫情暴发前花1000欧元购买名牌商品的消费者，其2022年的此项支出平均减半。相比之下，真正的富豪们在奢侈品上的支出却翻了一倍。如今，仅5%的买家就包揽了全球奢侈品销售份额的五分之二。

Exposure to China, one of the world’s biggest luxury markets, is another factor. Brands including Estée Lauder, a pedlar of pricey cosmetics, have slashed their outlook for the region. Burberry, a British maker of beige coats, generated less than a third of sales from Chinese shoppers, down from 40% before the pandemic. Things could get worse for American and European brands in China if Sino-Western geopolitical tensions ratchet up.

另一个因素是奢侈品牌与中国（全球最大的奢侈品市场之一）的密切程度。一些品牌大大降低了对中国市场的期望，包括经营昂贵化妆品的雅诗兰黛。销售经典浅褐色大衣的英国品牌博柏利在中国市场的销量还不足其全球销量的三分之一，而在疫情前这一占比高达40%。如果中西之间的地缘政治紧张局势加剧，在华欧美品牌的日子将更加艰难。

Luxury houses are already searching for new engines of growth. These include India, which though mostly poor has growing ranks of the super-rich, and sub-Saharan Africa, where last year Chanel became the first European luxury brand to stage an African fashion show, in Dakar, the capital of Senegal. But these markets will take years to reach China’s scale, if they manage to do so at all. In the meantime, investors are likely to become as discerning about their luxury stocks as they are about their posh wardrobes.

奢侈品公司已经开始寻找新的增长引擎，如总体贫穷但超级富豪人数日增的印度，以及撒哈拉以南的非洲——去年香奈儿在塞内加尔首都达喀尔举办了一场时装秀，成为首个在非洲举办时装秀的欧洲奢侈品牌。然而，即使这些国家的市场规模终有一日能比肩中国，也还需要好些年。在此期间，投资者们可能会谨慎对待奢侈品股票，就像对待他们满是华服的衣橱一样。

Iris，博物馆小可爱

Charlie，往者不谏，来者可追

Shulin，女，热咖啡+保温杯，慢慢来er

Yve，我的肩上是风

Alison，“贪玩又自由的风筝”

Constance，痛终有时，爱必将至

3