特斯拉可以从福特公司身上学到什么呢？ | 经济学人商业

Business | Schumpeter

商业 | 熊彼特专栏

Business | Schumpeter

商业 | 熊彼特专栏

Ford's focus

福特之焦点

The 120-year-old carmaker shows the importance of knowing your limits

120年福特：自知者明

Jim farley relishes a challenge. In January Ford’s boss, an enthusiastic amateur racer of historic cars, made his professional debut on the track in a powerful modern Mustang gt-4. Yet the risks of tearing round a circuit are nothing compared with manoeuvring Ford, which on June 16th will celebrate 120 years in business, through a new age of carmaking. Ford, like other legacy firms, is trying to reinvent itself to compete in an era of electrification and software-defined vehicles. It faces established rivals as well as newcomers, foremost among them Elon Musk’s Tesla. Amid this packed grid, Mr Farley is charting a singular racing line.

福特总裁吉姆·法利（Jim Farley）喜欢挑战。这位对经典车型充满热忱的业余赛车手，于今年一月驾驶着动力性能强悍的新款野马GT-4赛车完成了自己的职业赛车首秀。但是，与掌控百年福特（6月16日即将迎来成立120周年）进入造车新时代相比，驾驶赛车在赛道上疾驰的风险不值一提。和其他传统企业一样，福特正努力改变战略，参与电气化和软件定义汽车新时代的角逐。参与竞争的既有老对手，也有新势力，最突出的就是埃隆·马斯克的特斯拉。拥挤的起跑线上，吉姆·法利正在绘制一条独特的赛道。

Established carmakers have long been written off by investors as clunkers, characterised by low growth, low margins and an unmatched ability to destroy shareholder value. Between 2014 and Mr Farley’s taking the wheel in October 2020, Ford’s market capitalisation shrivelled by three-fifths, to $27bn. After a euphoric spike in early 2022, when it hit $100bn on enthusiasm about the company’s electric plans, it is back down to $57bn. But as befits a racing driver, Mr Farley is undaunted. He has reorganised the company into three units, focusing on electric vehicles (evs, in which Ford plans to invest $50bn between 2022 and 2026), on high-margin petrol-driven cars and on Ford’s world-beating commercial-vehicle business. He thinks that Ford can boost operating margins from 6.6% in 2022 to 10% by 2026 and turn ev-related losses, which are forecast to reach $3bn in 2023, into profits.

长期以来，投资者看不上老牌汽车制造商，认为它们就像年久失修的老爷车，增长少、利润低，在损害股东利益上无人能敌。在2014年到2020年10月吉姆·法利当选福特CEO这段时间里，福特市值缩水了五分之三，只剩下270亿美元。受公司电气化转型规划的刺激，福特市值在2022年初一度飞升至1000亿美元，然而随后又跌回570亿美元。但是，吉姆·法利不愧为赛车手，百折不挠。他将福特重组为三个业务部门，分别负责电动汽车（福特计划在2022到2026年间投资500亿美元）、高利润燃油车和其世界一流的商用车业务。他认为，福特能够在2026年前将营业利润率从2022年的6.6%提升到10%，并扭转电动汽车业务亏损局面（2023年预计亏损达30亿美元），实现盈利。

Mr Farley’s plan hinges on learning a thing or two from the disrupters, whose contribution to the industry he is quicker to acknowledge than most other car bosses are. “Tesla has influenced a lot of our thinking,” he admits. Most important, he has a clear idea of where emulating rivals plays to his company’s competitive advantage and, critically, where it does not.

比起绝大多数车企老板，吉姆·法利更早地认识到了颠覆者对行业作出的贡献，他的计划正有赖于从他们那里学一两招。他承认：“特斯拉对我们的想法影响甚多。”最重要的是，他清醒地知道，仿效对手的哪些方面可以提升公司的竞争优势，而哪些方面则不能。

Mr Musk’s biggest contribution to carmaking may be proving that evs, which have been losing the incumbents money for years, can turn a healthy profit. Tesla’s operating margin, of 17% in 2022, was comfortably higher than those that most established carmakers enjoy on their petrol-powered ranges. To achieve his electric goals, Mr Farley is following Mr Musk and reversing years of industry practice that left the big marques’ largest suppliers to manage those lower down the value chain.

马斯克对汽车制造行业的最大贡献可能就是证明了一个事实：即使电动汽车持续多年亏损，依旧可以带来可观的利润。特斯拉2022年营业利润率为17%，远超大部分老牌汽车制造商的燃油车销售利润率。法利为了实现电气化目标，正效仿马斯克，改变长久以来的行业惯例，不再让其最大供应商管理价值链下游的其他供应商。

Ford is not the only legacy carmaker to be bringing more of the supply chain in-house. Rivals such as General Motors (gm) and Volkswagen are also building battery “gigafactories” close to their big markets. But Mr Farley is, like Mr Musk, busier than most bosses in negotiating directly with mining firms to secure battery minerals. Ford has already signed deals to guarantee supplies of 90% of the lithium and nickel it needs for the 2m evs it wants to be producing annually by 2026. Ford even intends to process some of the lithium in America. This should help it reduce the industrywide reliance on Chinese refiners. It also ensures that electric Fords qualify for subsidies under the “made in America” terms of the Inflation Reduction Act, a giant green-funding law passed last year. As a result, Mr Farley hopes soon to be making the cheapest batteries in America at Ford’s plant in Michigan.

福特并不是唯一一家将更多供应链环节纳入内部管理的传统汽车制造商。通用汽车（GM）和大众汽车等竞争对手也在其主要市场附近建造了生产电池的“超级工厂”。但法利比其他大多数车企老总更忙，他和马斯克一样，直接与矿业公司谈判，确保电池材料稳定供应。为实现到2026年底电动汽车年产量达到200万辆的目标，福特已经达成多项合作，保障了90%的锂、镍材料需求。他甚至打算在美国加工部分锂材料，以期减少汽车行业普遍依赖中国精炼工厂的状况。此举还将确保福特的电动汽车符合《通胀削减法案（Inflation Reduction Act）》中的“美国制造”条款要求，以获得补贴。该法案于2022年通过，大规模资助绿色产业。凭借此，法利希望很快能在福特位于密歇根州的工厂生产出美国最便宜的电池。

注释：

《通胀削减法案（Inflation Reduction Act）》：根据该法案，美国政府将向购买新电动车以及二手电动车的消费者，分别提供7500美元以及4000美元的税收抵免，但从2024年开始，如果电池中的材料和关键矿物是由“受关注的外国实体”提取、加工或回收的，则会取消税收抵免资格。（来源：21世纪经济报道-宁德时代牵手福特，中国电池全球化竞争如何破局）

Mr Farley is also emulating Mr Musk in trying to pare back the industry’s notorious complexity. Just as a lighter, nimbler machine has a better chance of staying ahead of a big and powerful one on the track, the thinking goes, a simpler company should be able to negotiate the twists and turns of industrial change. Famously, Tesla makes just four models with few options for customisation. Similarly, Ford’s next generation of electric pickups will come with one cabin, one frame and one standard battery in just seven basic formats, says Lisa Drake, Ford’s overseer for ev industrialisation. That compares with an options list for the bestselling petrol-powered f-150 pickup that allows for millions of combinations. Rather than integrating hundreds of parts from suppliers, each with chips that need to work in harmony, Ford’s new ev architectures, set for launch in 2025, will share more common mechanical and software underpinnings.

法利还试图效仿马斯克以改进汽车制造行业出了名的复杂程度。他认为，正如一台轻便灵活的机器更有可能在赛道上领先一台大功率的大型机器，一家更简洁的公司应该也更能够跨越行业变革的曲曲折折。众所周知，特斯拉只生产四款车型，且只提供极少数定制选项。与之类似，福特电动汽车产业化负责人丽莎·德雷克（Lisa Drake）表示，福特推出的下一代电动皮卡将仅有七种基本规格，配备同种车厢、车架和一块标准电池。与之形成对比的是福特旗下最畅销的燃油皮卡f-150，其自选列表可提供数百万种不同组合。福特的全新纯电汽车预计于2025年发布，该车将采用更多相同的机械和软件基础，而非整合不同供应商提供的数百个零件，每个零件还都包含需要彼此协调的芯片。

Where Mr Farley’s thinking and Mr Musk’s diverge is over what besides manufacturing vehicles carmakers ought to be doing. Mr Musk has an expansive view of his company’s role, which stretches from designing Teslas’ infotainment system to building a charging network where owners can top up their batteries. Mr Farley, by contrast, is focusing squarely on manufacturing vehicles and is happy to outsource some of the other things.In May Ford stunned many observers when it signed a deal with Mr Musk’s firm to grant Ford evs access to Tesla’s North American Supercharger network, with its 12,000 charging stations.

法利和马斯克的想法在车企除了汽车制造之外的业务上存在差异。马斯克认为公司要有广泛的业务范围，从设计特斯拉的信息娱乐系统到建立让车主可以给电池充电的充电网络都要涉及。而法利先生则全情专注于汽车制造，而且乐于将其他业务外包出去。今年5月，福特与特斯拉达成合作，福特汽车获准接入特斯拉在北美的超级充电站网络，使用该网络下的1.2万个充电站，这让许多观察者倍感震惊。

Soft power

“软”实力

More surprising even than the charging deal is Ford’s decision to continue relying on outside partners for a lot of in-car software. This flies in the face of received wisdom in the industry, according to which things like infotainment systems, from satellite navigation to music streaming, will increasingly determine the car-owning experience, differentiate car brands and generate revenues from new services. Tesla does not accommodate Apple’s CarPlay and Google’s Android Auto platforms, which connect motorists’ smartphones to their cars’ dashboards. gm recently declared that it would ditch CarPlay and Android Auto and come up with its own better system. Mr Farley sees the need to keep control of computer programs in critical areas such as safety and security. But he accepts that Ford has lost the battle for the cockpit to big tech.

比这桩充电合作更让人震惊的是，福特决定继续依靠外部合作伙伴提供大量的车载软件。此举与业界公认的理念背道而驰。业内普遍认为，卫星导航和音乐流媒体等信息娱乐系统将会对车主的体验产生越来越重要的决定性作用，让品牌脱颖而出，而且这些新服务也会带来收入。特斯拉不去兼容苹果的CarPlay和谷歌的Android Auto，哪怕这两个平台能实现驾驶者的智能手机与汽车仪表盘的互联。近日，通用汽车也表示会弃用CarPlay和Android Auto，并将研发自己的系统，带来更好的体验。法利先生认为，需要在安保等关键领域保证对计算机程序的控制权。但他也承认福特在这场驾驶舱大战中已经输给了科技巨头。

There are signs that some incumbents may be becoming more clear-eyed about their limitations. On June 8th gm announced it had made a similar charging arrangement with Tesla. More would probably benefit from greater realism about their software prowess. Stick to what you do well and leave the rest to others is a lesson that many of Ford’s rivals could usefully learn.

有迹象表明一些汽车企业可能会愈发清楚自身的局限性。6月8日，通用汽车宣布已与特斯拉达成了类似的充电协议。未来可能会有更多的企业认清自身软件开发的实力，并从中获益。坚持做好己之所长，把其他事情留给别人，这对福特的很多竞争对手来说都是有益的一课。

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