“铜医生”该退休了，第二曲线也来了 | 经济学人财经
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思维导图作者：
May Li，男，我要去追逐心中的太阳，还要继续努力的亚古兽
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Why it is time to retire Dr Copper
为什么说“铜医生”该退休了？
英文部分选自经济学人20231021期财经板块
Finance and economics | Buttonwood
财经 | 梧桐树专栏
Why it is time to retire Dr Copper
为什么说“铜医生”该退休了？
The red metal no longer tells investors much about the global economy
红色金属已不再是全球经济的晴雨表
A stethoscope being thrown into a waste paper bin
废纸篓里的听诊器
Doctors are famously reluctant to hang up their stethoscopes. But a time comes in the career of every medic when their skills fade, and a gentle push is the best thing for them—and their patients. The same applies for the metaphorical physicians of the financial world, whose ability to diagnose the market’s health changes over time. Now the end may be nigh for the most illustrious of all such physicians: Dr Copper.
在退休这件事上，医生们是出了名得犟。但是每位医生都有医技衰退的时候，而到了那一天，和风细雨的劝退或许是对他们和患者而言最好的结果。金融界的“医生”也是如此：它们诊断市场健康状况的能力会推着时间的推移而变化。现下金融界最杰出的“铜医生”或许就大限将至。
Copper, a metal crucial to the construction of all manner of fittings, pipes and wires, has earned its nickname on Wall Street owing to its role as a bellwether for the health of global industry. A surge in copper prices is taken as an early sign of an economic upswing; a big drop is a portent of recession, or at the very least a manufacturing downturn.
铜是一种至关重要的金属，用于制造各种配件、管道和电线。作为全球工业健康状况的晴雨表，铜在华尔街赢得了“铜医生”的名号。铜价飙升被认为是经济回升的先兆，铜价暴跌则预示着经济衰退——或至少是制造业的低迷。
So what is going on at the moment? Manufacturing looks peaky. Global industrial output is up by just 0.5% year on year, well below the average of 2.6% over the past two decades, and the rich world is in an industrial recession. A wobble of a similar scale in 2015 sent copper prices plunging by about a quarter. Yet so far this year they are down by only 6%. Futures maturing in 2025 are flat, and those maturing in 2026 are up a bit.
那么目前情况如何？制造业似乎处于疲软状态。全球工业产值同比仅增长0.5%，远低于过去二十年的平均水平，即2.6%，富裕国家正处于工业衰退之中。2015年，类似规模的动荡导致铜价暴跌约四分之一。然而，今年以来铜价仅下跌了6%。2025年到期的期货价格保持稳定，2026年到期的期货价格略有上涨。
The breakdown in the usual rules of thumb is most striking in China, which consumes over half of the world’s annual copper supply. Its stricken housing market might have led you to think the metal was doomed. After all, investment in property, once a key driver of copper demand, is down by 9% year on year. Curiously, though, Chinese demand for the metal is up by around 10% this year.
中国消费了每年全球铜产量的一半，在这里，“铜定律”的失效表现得最为明显。中国房地产市场受挫，不免让人觉得这一金属在劫难逃。毕竟，曾经推高铜需求的房地产板块投资同比下降9%。不过，说来奇怪，今年中国的铜需求增长了约10%。
The explanation for this lies in the radical shifts that are under way in the energy system. China will install around 150 gigawatts (gw) of copper-intensive solar-energy capacity this year, according to Goldman Sachs, a bank, almost double the amount it installed last year. And methods for storing energy require the metal, too. Pumped-storage hydropower is one example. This involves moving water from one reservoir to another, either to hoard excess energy from wind and solar power or to release it. China already has 30% of the world’s hydropower-storage capacity, at 50gw. Another 89gw of capacity is being built, which will require vast amounts of copper.
原因在于能源体系正在发生翻天覆地的改变。据高盛的数据，今年，中国预计将新增太阳能发电装机容量1.5亿千瓦，几乎是去年的两倍。光伏发电对铜的需求极大，而储存能量同样需要铜，比如抽水蓄能（通过两个水库反复抽放水，来储存或释放多余的风力发电量和太阳能发电量）。中国的抽水蓄能规模占全球的30%，达0.5亿千瓦。另有0.89亿千瓦的容量正在建设，而这会用到大量的铜。
注释：
gigawatt n. 吉瓦；十亿瓦特
Other countries are also spending big on the green transition, and putting in place legislation that will increase appetite for the metal. s&p Global, a financial-data firm, suggests that demand for refined copper will almost double by 2035, to 49m tonnes. Batteries, energy transmission, solar cells, transport—all need the metal. An electric car contains over 50 kilograms of the stuff, more than twice the amount used in a conventional vehicle. Across the world new rules, intended to reduce emissions, will steer consumers towards electric vehicles and away from their copper-light predecessors. In Europe sales of new petrol-powered cars will be banned from 2035.
其他国家也在大力投资绿色转型，颁布了不少将推高铜需求的法律法规。金融分析公司标普全球（S&P Global）称，到2035年，精炼铜的需求量会近乎翻上一番，达到4900万吨。电池、输电、光伏发电和交通运输都离不开铜。每辆电动车须用到50多公斤铜，是燃油汽车用量的两倍多。全球范围内，致力于减少碳排放的新规将引导消费者从耗铜少的燃油汽车转向电动汽车。欧洲将从2035年起禁止新的燃油车销售。
The squeeze on supplies will therefore be historic, meaning that sky-high copper prices will no longer be indicative of optimism on the part of industrial machinery-makers, construction firms, electronics manufacturers and the like. Instead, rising demand for copper will increasingly reflect a desire among politicians for more environmentally friendly energy, and sometimes also a reduced dependence on imports.
因此，供给端将承受前所未有的压力。这意味着，走高的铜价将不再是工业装备制造、建筑和电子产品领域的报春鸟，而是愈发反映着政府推动环境友好型能源产业发展的意愿，有时也会反映出对进口的依赖程度降低。
In normal times, building an electrical network from scratch would at least be a signal of greater economic activity to come. However, the energy transition is intended to replace existing activity, rather than add to it. In the case of energy infrastructure, China’s new solar investment this year can generate 150 gigawatt-hours of energy when working at full pelt, which is equivalent to almost 90,000 barrels of oil per hour. That is energy which China now does not need to purchase from overseas producers. The result may well be good for the planet, but it will not have much effect on aggregate economic activity.
正常情况下，从零开始建造全新的电力网络，至少能让人们对经济活动扩张有所期待。然而，当前的能源转型意在取代现有设施，而非“扩建”。以能源基础设施为例，中国今年新投资的光伏发电设施最多可发出1.5亿千瓦时的电能，相当于每小时燃烧9万桶石油。如此一来，中国便可以每小时少进口9万桶石油。新能源取代传统能源或许能够保护地球，但却不会带来经济总量的增长。
With so much of the growth in demand for copper locked in, and proceeding in large part according to legal diktat, the metal’s price will over time say less and less about the state of the global economy, and more and more about the state of the energy transition. Copper prices will still be worth watching, then, albeit for different reasons. Investors wanting a hint about the state of the global economy will be replaced by policymakers wanting a sense of how their green policies are faring. Dr Copper’s retirement may be a sad moment, but it is not the end of the story.
由于铜需求上涨基本已成定势（在很大程度上也是由于立法推动新能源发展所致），铜价预测全球经济走势的能力必将越来越弱，而预示能源转型进程的能力则势必越来越强。因而，铜价仍然值得关注，只不过另有原因。虽然投资者们不再能借此判断全球经济走向，但决策者们可以从中把握绿色政策的实施情况。“铜医生”的退休或许令人感怀，但退休并不是“铜”生的结束。
翻译组：
风筝，热爱生活，热爱翻译，热爱搞钱，热爱猫咪
Humi，女，学习财经的金融小白，不负韶华，平视世界
Summer，女，QE在职，梦想能仗 翻译/音乐 /健康 走天涯
校对组：
Alexis, Less is more
Zorina，Dream big and be daring
Ithil，男，胡辣汤爱好者，小郝今天译什么
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Cleo，男，学习不停，思考不止，努力成为审慎却乐观的深入思考者
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