标普500“看上去很美” | 经济学人财经
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思维导图作者：
May Li，男，我要去追逐心中的太阳，还要继续努力的亚古兽
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Finance and economics | Buttonwood
财经板块 | 梧桐树专栏
英文部分选自经济学人20231111期财经板块
Finance and economics | Buttonwood
财经板块 | 梧桐树专栏
Forget the S&P 500. Pay attention to the S&P 493
忘掉标普500吧
The alternative benchmark offers a better view of America’s stockmarket
标普493或许更能反映美国股市全貌
Think of america’s stockmarket. What is the first firm that springs to mind? Perhaps it is one that made you money, or maybe one whose shares you are considering buying. If not, chances are you are thinking of one of the big hitters—and they don’t come much bigger than the “magnificent seven”.
提到美国股市，你脑海里首先浮现的是哪家公司？也许是一家曾让你赚到钱的企业，或许是你正在考虑买入的潜在标的。如果都不是，那很可能你想到的是那些明星公司；而明星公司者，无过于“豪勇七蛟龙”。
注释：
magnificent seven: 《豪勇七蛟龙》（英语：The Magnificent Seven，香港译《七侠荡寇志》）为集合众多好莱坞大卡司动作片演员年轻时拍摄的热闹、娱乐性极高之1960年西部电影。Source:
https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-hans/%E8%B1%AA%E5%8B%87%E4%B8%83%E8%9B%9F%E9%BE%8D
Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla are Wall Street’s superstars, and deservedly so. Each was established in the past 50 years, and five of them in the past 30. Each has seen its market value exceed $1trn (although those of Meta and Tesla have since fallen, to $800bn and $700bn respectively). Thanks to this dynamism, it is little wonder that America’s stockmarket has raced ahead of others. Those in Europe have never produced a $1trn company and—in the past three decades—have failed to spawn one worth even a tenth as much. Hardly surprising that the average annual return on America’s benchmark s&p 500 index in the past decade has been one-and-a-half times that on Europe’s Stoxx 600.
Alphabet、亚马逊、苹果、Meta、微软、英伟达、特斯拉，这七条蛟龙是华尔街实至名归的超级明星。他们成立不足都50年，其中五家甚至未过“而立”，但每家企业的市值都曾冲破1万亿美元（尽管Meta和特斯拉的市值后来分别跌至8000亿美元和7000亿美元）。得益于此等活力，美股表现自然连甩其他市场几条街。欧洲从未孕育过市值超万亿美元的公司；过去30年里，这里甚至没能诞生新的千亿市值公司。在此背景下，过去十年美国标普500指数的年均回报率达到欧洲斯托克600指数的1.5倍，也就不算什么稀奇事了。
注释：
Stoxx 600：斯托克欧洲600指数（STOXX Europe 600）也被称为斯托克600指数，它是由斯托克公司设计的欧洲股票指数。该指数拥有固定数量的600个成分，代表17个欧洲国家的大型，中型和小型资本公司，占欧洲股票市场（不限欧元区）自由流通市值约90％。
Source:http://www.kguowai.com/html/34870.html
There is just one problem with this story. It is the hand-waving with which your columnist cast the magnificent seven as being somehow emblematic of America’s entire stockmarket. This conflation is made easily and often. It is partly justified by the huge chunk of the s&p 500 that the magnificent seven now comprise: measured by market value, they account for 29% of the index, and hence of its performance. Yet they are still just seven firms out of 500. And the remaining 98.6% of companies, it turns out, are not well characterised by seven tech prodigies that have moved fast, broken things and conquered the world in a matter of decades. Here, then, is your guide to the s&p 493.
故事很美好，但有一个小问题。专栏作家往往“大手一挥”，就把七巨头和整个美股市场画上了等号。这种混淆很容易且经常发生。不过这也有情可原，毕竟当下七巨头在标普500指数中举足轻重：其市值占所有成分股总市值的29%，因而能够很大程度上左右指数的涨跌。然而，它们毕竟只是500家公司中的7家而已。而且事实证明，这七位在短短几十年内快速崛起、颠覆市场、征服世界的科技奇才，无法充分代表余下98.6%的公司。那么，接下来，我们为您介绍“标普493指数”。
注释：
1.Hand-waving: insubstantial and unsupported or ineffective statements, arguments, actions, etc., especially when intended to distract or mislead
Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/hand-waving
2.Emblematic：of, relating to, or constituting an emblem : SYMBOLIC, REPRESENTATIVE
Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/emblematic
3.Conflation: BLEND, FUSION v.合并；混合
Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/conflation
Most obviously, having discarded the tech behemoths, our new index now looks substantially older. Consider its biggest companies. At the top of the list is Berkshire Hathaway, an investment firm led by two nonagenarians, and Eli Lilly, a pharmaceuticals-maker established in the 19th century by a veteran of America’s civil war. Further down is JPMorgan Chase, a bank that made its name before the founding of the Federal Reserve. That is not to suggest that these firms do not innovate. All of them, by definition, have remained highly successful, even if none has crossed the $1trn threshold. Whippersnappers, though, they are not.
最明显的一点是，剔除科技七巨头后的标普493指数显露出了岁月的痕迹。几家头部公司之中，位居榜首的是伯克希尔·哈撒韦（Berkshire Hathaway）和礼来（Eli Lilly），前者是一家由两名耄耋老人掌舵的投资公司，后者则是由美国内战老兵于19世纪创立的制药公司。摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）紧随其后，这家银行甚至在美联储建立之前就已声名在外。当然，这不是说这些公司就不懂创新：每一家都是实打实的成功企业，即便还没有谁的市值能越过1万亿美元大关。但它们也绝不再是初生牛犊。
注释：
1. Berkshire Hathaway: 著名投资家沃伦·巴菲特（1930年生）创办的公司，公司副主席查理·芒格（1924年生）被称为巴菲特的黄金搭档。（参见百度百科-查理·芒格/沃伦·巴菲特/伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司）
2. Whippersnappers: a young person who is too confident and shows no respect toward other, especially older, people. (Cambridge Dictionary)
As a result of this maturity, the s&p 493 is less susceptible to the market’s changing mood (see chart). This is a double-edged sword. On the plus side, it offered protection during the crash of 2022. The more established business models of s&p 493 companies started the year with less hype than those of the magnificent seven, leaving them less vulnerable when the hype duly evaporated. Meanwhile, a smaller proportion of their value came from the promise of distant future earnings—the present value of which fell dramatically as interest-rate expectations soared. The net effect was that, while the magnificent seven together lost 41% of their value, the s&p 493 lost just 12%.
也正是因为这些公司相对成熟，标普493指数对多变的市场情绪不甚敏感（见图表）。这是一柄双刃剑。好的方面是，这使它们躲过了2022年的市场崩盘：开年之时市场对七巨头的疯狂追捧并未波及商业模式更成熟的标普493公司，因此，追涨退潮之时，它们也不似七巨头那般脆弱。同时，标普493公司的市值中只有一小部分源于对远期收益的承诺，而利率预期飙升会导致远期收益的现值快速折损。结果是，当年七巨头市值蒸发了41%，而标普493只缩水了12%。
This year, however, the tables have turned. On the face of it, the old-timers ought to have done well, since the American economy has remained remarkably buoyant. This, combined with enthusiasm concerning the potential of artificial intelligence to juice their profits, led to a stellar recovery for the magnificent seven. In the first ten months of the year their share prices rose by 52%, nearly erasing the losses of 2022. By contrast, the value of the s&p 493 fell by 2%.
然而今年的情况发生了转变。乍看起来，美国经济持续强劲，老前辈们的表现理应不错。经济增长给力，加上人工智能提升利润的乐观前景，使得七巨头的股价出现了显著复苏。今年前10个月，七巨头的股价上涨了52%，几乎抹平了2022年的损失。相比之下，标普493公司的市值下跌了2%。
What to make of this bifurcation? One conclusion is that America’s tech giants have become overvalued and must eventually face a crash. Another is that, just as share prices have diverged, so too will the companies’ sales and profits, meaning that the magnificent seven really are about to leave the dinosaurs in the dust. Investors seem to choose between these hypotheses largely according to their own temperament, since traditional valuation measures such as the price-to-earnings ratio, which for the magnificent seven is roughly double that for the s&p 493, lend support to both camps.
如何理解这一分化呢？一个推论是，美国科技巨头的股价已进入高估区间，最终必定走向崩溃。另一推论是，股价分化只是开始，后续这两类公司的销售额和利润也必然殊途，七巨头真的要令老前辈们望尘莫及了。投资者们如何站队，似乎全看个人喜好；毕竟，从市盈率（七巨头的市盈率大概是标普493公司的两倍）等传统估值指标来看，两种推论都有几分道理。
注释:
1，bifurcation分歧；分叉点；分岔
2，leave sb in the dust: to leave sb far behind 把某人远远抛在后面；使望尘莫及
3，price-to-earnings ratio 市盈率 股票的市盈率（Price-to-Earning Ratio，P/E或PER），又称为本益比，指每股市价除以每股盈利（Earnings Per Share，EPS），通常作为股票是便宜抑或昂贵的指标（通货膨胀会使每股收益虚增，从而扭曲市盈率的比较价值）。市盈率把企业的股价与其制造财富的能力联系起来。每股盈利的计算方法，一般是以该企业在过去一年的净利润除以总发行已售出股数。市盈率越低，代表投资者能够以相对较低价格购入股票。
A third conclusion, now aired increasingly often, is that the s&p 500’s domination by seven stocks which are so different from the rest means it is no longer a good benchmark. That is not quite right. Many people invest in funds tracking the index precisely so they can capture the gains of the winners without having to care about its composition. Still, if you want to know what America’s stockmarket really looks like, avoid the headline index. Look at the s&p 493.
越发甚嚣尘上的是第三个推论：鉴于占统治地位的七巨头与其他成分股差异巨大，标普500指数已不再是一个有效的基准。这一说法也不完全准确：标普500指数基金的投资者往往就是想要“躺着赚钱”，他们懒得操心成分股状况，只想搭上牛股的便车。不过，若要了解美国股市的真面目，还是撇下标普500，看看标普493吧。
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