减肥药 | 经济学人商业（口译认知实验有偿招募被试）
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思维导图作者：
Vicky，少儿英语老师+笔译新人
［口译认知实验有偿招募被试］🎙️
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时间: 2023年11月，具体时间段可根据需要安排。
地点: 北京，上海，武汉，广州（其他地方条件允许也可安排）。
完成实验可获得金钱酬劳。
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Business | Schumpeter
商业 | 熊彼特
Weight-loss drugs are no match for the might of big food
在饕餮大餐面前，减肥药相形见绌
The world is as addicted to fattening foods as it is to fossil fuels
全世界对化石燃料有多依赖，对发胖食物就有多沉迷
To get a sense of why periodic panics about the impact of weight-loss programmes on the food industry should be taken with a pinch of salt, sugar, butter and whatever else you fancy putting in your mixing bowl, go back 20 years to 2003. That was the year when Robert Atkins, the eponymous father of a popular diet, slipped on a sheet of ice in New York and died. The low-carb king was at the peak of his powers. One of his books, "Diet Revolution", briefly outsold even "Harry Potter". His message, not of abstinence but of indulgence in the finer things of life such as steak, bacon, eggs and cream, spread joy through the livestock pits of Chicago, and alarm through bakeries and confectioneries. Wheat prices fell. Unilever, an Anglo-Dutch food giant, blamed the Atkins diet for shrinking sales. Yet by late 2003 the craze had gone the way of its founder, snuffed out by a blend of boredom, bad breath and bad publicity. As one newspaper summed it up: "Atkins is toast."
如果想要了解减重项目给食品行业带来的周期性恐慌为啥会和你饭菜里的油盐酱醋以及添加的食材有关系，那就要从二十年前的2003年说起。那一年，“阿特金斯减肥法”的发明者罗伯特·阿特金斯（Robert Atkins）在冰面上滑倒并在纽约离世。当时正是这位低碳饮食大王最红的时候，他的《饮食革命》（Diet Revolution）一书甚至一度比《哈利·波特》卖得还好。他不主张节制饮食，反而倡导大吃特吃牛排、培根、鸡蛋和奶油等生活中的高级食物。他的这一理念让芝加哥的畜牧市场欢天喜地，却给面包店和糕果店的敲了警钟，小麦的价格也出现了下跌。英荷食品业巨头联合利华（Unilever）把销售额下降的原因也归咎于阿特金斯。然而到2003年底，伴随着人们对这种方法的厌倦，（高蛋白饮食）导致口臭的问题，以及各种负面传闻，阿特金斯减肥法就和它的发明者一样戛然而止。一家报社曾这么总结道：“阿特金斯寿终正寝。”
Every decade brings something new to avoid. In the 1970s it was calories; in the 1980s, salt; in the 1990s, fat; in the 2000s, carbs; in the 2010s gluten and dairy. But this time is different, isn’t it? The latest killjoys threatening the food, beverage and restaurant industries are not another dietary fad, but injectable medicines, such as Wegovy, approved in 2021 as an anti-obesity drug, and Ozempic and Mounjaro, anti-diabetes drugs used off-label for weight loss. Besides stimulating insulin production, the so-called glp-1 medicines reproduce a feeling of fullness and suppress appetite in a way that has a similar effect in the food and drink aisles as dietary restraint, except people are less likely to cheat.
每个十年都会出现新的焦点事物需让人们避之不及：20世纪70年代要注意热量摄取，80年代则是盐份摄入，90年代是避免摄入脂肪，21世纪初则是避免摄入碳水化合物，2010年后则避免摄入麸质和乳制品。不过，这个十年却不同以往。当下能给食品、饮料和餐饮业带来危机的大扫兴是注射式减肥药物，比如在2021年获批的减肥药Wegovy，以及Ozempic和Mounjaro等抗糖药——后两种药物在私下里被当作减肥药使用。这些所谓的GLP-1类药物不仅会刺激产生胰岛素，还会复刻出一种饱腹感，从而抑制食欲。这种药物对减少食品饮料摄入的影响跟主动刻意控制饮食差不多。只不过人们靠欺骗自己（从而克制食欲）成功的几率比较低。。
注释：
超药品说明书用药（off-label drug use, OLDU）又称“药品说明书外用法”、“药品未注册用法”，是指药品使用的适应证、剂量、疗程、途径或人群等未在药品监督管理部门批准的药品说明书记载范围内的用法。
Investors in Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, which make the drugs, are delighted. Those in the soft-drinks and snacking businesses, less so. In recent weeks the share prices of Coca-Cola and PepsiCo, as well as of retailers like Walmart and Costco, have swooned. Pundits were swift to link a big sell-off on October 6th to comments by a Walmart executive in America who revealed that, according to anonymised data, those who bought weight-loss drugs also purchased less food. It sounded like an echo of the Unilever scare from two decades ago. In all likelihood, it is a red herring.
以上药物由诺和诺德和礼来公司生产，它们的投资者欢欣雀跃，而软饮料和零食公司的投资者心情可就没那么好了。近几周，可口可乐、百事可乐以及沃尔玛和好市多等零售商的股价都很疲软。有专家反应迅速，将10月6日的大幅抛售与美国沃尔玛一名高管的评论相联系了起来。这名高管在评论中透露，根据匿名数据显示，减肥药的买家往往不会买很多食物。这事儿听上去和20年前联合利华所经历的恐慌很相似，但也很有可能，这只是个烟雾弹。
It is easy to see why people are inclined to get carried away by the impact of “skinny pen” injections. Besides being a curse upon whom it falls, the economic consequences of obesity, from higher medical and insurance costs to lower workplace productivity, provide a compelling case for regulatory support for the drugs, as long as they are safe. Demand for glp-1s is already exceeding supply; there are shortages of Wegovy and Ozempic, leading some pharmacists to make copycat versions.
人们很容易被“苗条笔”注射吸引的原因很简单。肥胖除了对个人不利之外，由肥胖导致的经济包袱包括医疗和保险成本的增加以及工作生产力下降等都让官方在减肥药安全的前提下对其提供支持有了充足的理由。胰高血糖素样肽1（GLP-1）供不应求，而司美格鲁肽（Wegovy）和诺和泰（Ozempic）同样短缺，于是一些药剂师开始生产仿制品。
The potential for disruption is huge. About 70% of Americans are obese or overweight, and by 2035 it is estimated that half the world will be; treatment could represent mountains of forgone calories. In some food categories, obesity is not just a consequence of unhealthy demand but almost a prerequisite; more than a third of what Americans call candy is eaten by mostly overweight people bingeing on many bars, bags and boxes each week. Theoretically, the sky could be the limit. According to Jefferies, a bank, even airlines would benefit from anti-obesity drugs if falling average passenger weights enabled them to burn less fuel.
减肥药冲击食品行业的潜力巨大。大约70%的美国人超重或肥胖，预计到2035年，全球一半的人口将超重。想要改变这一状况就需要人们放弃大量卡路里（摄入）。在某些食品类别中，肥胖不仅是不健康饮食习惯的后果，而且几乎变成了前提。被美国人称为糖果的食品中超过三分之一是被肥胖人群吃掉的，他们每周都吃了大量的一条条、一袋袋、一盒盒的糖果。从理论上讲，减肥除了天上，几乎可以影响地面上的方方面面。然而根据杰富瑞银行的数据，甚至在天上的航空公司也能受益于抗肥胖药物，因为乘客的平均体重下降的话，他们将需要更少的燃料。
Yet for now most of the projections are based on guesswork. More painstaking analysis has to include calculations not just of absolute obesity numbers, but of who is and is not eligible for insurance, people’s willingness to submit to treatment, the impact if the drugs have side-effects, the drop-out rates and the risk of regaining weight once off the drugs. Alexia Howard of Bernstein, an investment firm, takes a stab at sifting through the fog of numbers to forecast that over the next five years, if one-tenth of American adults take the drug, overall calorie demand would fall by no more than 0.5% a year. As she says, that is hardly a “doomsday scenario”—though makers of processed foods and sweets may suffer worse than others.
但目前为止，大多数预测都是基于猜测。将来的预测需要更严谨的分析，不仅要计算绝对肥胖人数，还必须考虑有医保和没医保的人群情况、接受治疗的意愿、如果药物存在副作用的影响、中途退出率以及停药后体重反弹的风险。。伯恩斯坦投资公司的亚历克西娅·霍华德试图拨开这些数字迷雾，她预测，在未来五年，如果有十分之一的美国成年人服用这种药物，每年的总卡路里需求仅会下降不到0.5%。正如她所说，这远远谈不上是“世界末日”，虽然加工食品和甜食制造商的损失可能会比其他人大一点。
The $1trn-plus food industry, stalwarts of which have been around for generations, will not sit idly by and let someone else decide their fate. On October 10th Ramon Laguarta, PepsiCo’s boss, was the latest to play down the impact, saying that anti-obesity drugs were on the firm’s radar but were not expected to affect any of the long-term trends boosting its snacks business, such as urbanisation, busy lives and a growing middle class. The firm could, of course, “pivot” if necessary, he added. Other processed-food companies have noted that trends such as smaller pack sizes and healthier foods already align with glp-1-style eating habits. And big food could use its influence to subtly raise concerns about the cost and safety of the new drugs. With such deeply entrenched incumbents, weaning the world off fattening foods is unlikely to be much easier than ending its addiction to fossil fuels.
食品行业的市值已超万亿美元，依托了几代人的打拼，这些人不会坐视不管，让自己受制于人。作为最近一个淡化这一影响的人，百事可乐公司老板拉蒙·拉瓜塔（Ramon Laguarta）于10月10日表示公司对减肥药有所关注，但对于推动其小食业务发展的城市化、快节奏生活以及中产阶级壮大等长期趋势不会受到减肥药的影响。当然，如果有必要，公司也可以“转向”。其他食品加工公司已经注意到例如小包装食品和健康类食品的发展趋势是同“GLP-1”式的饮食习惯相吻合的。大型食品公司可以利用其影响力，在不知不觉中引起人们对新药成本和安全性的担忧。面对这些在食品行业深耕多年的巨头，要让肥胖食品退出历史舞台恐怕一点也不比戒掉化石燃料容易。
Losing hearts and minds, not weight
失去的是人心而非体重
So why the stockmarket swoon? The best answer is that current conditions may be worse than the food-and-beverage industry likes to admit. PepsiCo’s third-quarter sales and profits beat analysts’ expectations, but mostly thanks to higher prices. Volumes fell by 2.5% compared with a year ago. This change signals a worrying cyclical trend. Consumers, who tolerated high prices during and after the pandemic, have been hit hard by inflation. With a cooling labour market, many Americans may soon face growing hardship. Though the well-off continue to splash out on fancy foods and restaurants, surveys suggest that the rest are buying more staples, cooking from scratch at home, and using up their leftovers. Moreover, food companies are reluctant to recognise that they may have overexploited their pricing power.
那么，为什么股市会疲软呢？最好的答案是目前的状况比食品饮料行业嘴上说的要糟糕。百事公司第三季度的销售额和利润超出了分析师的预期，但这主要归功于价格上涨。与去年同期相比，销量下降了2.5%，这一变化预示着一个令人担忧的周期性趋势。消费者在大流行病期间和之后忍受了高物价，现在却还面临严重的通货膨胀。随着劳动力市场冷却，许多美国人可能很快就会面临更大的困难。尽管有钱人可以继续享用高档食品和餐馆，但调查显示，越来越多的普通人在购买主食，开始在家自己做饭，剩菜剩饭也不浪费了。此外，食品公司也不愿承认他们可能过度利用了自己的定价权。
This is not as eye-catching an explanation for weak share prices as a full-on assault on obesity. But for the next year at least, belt-tightening rather than girth may well be the biggest thing on consumers’ minds.
相比于对肥胖症火力全开的抨击，对于股价疲软的解释可能没有那么吸引人眼球，但至少在明年，消费者最关心的可能会是勒紧裤腰带而非缩短裤腰带。
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