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Joe Biden fires the starting gun on the presidential race

拜登正式开启竞选连任之战

英文部分选自经济学人20230429美国版块

Joe Biden fires the starting gun on the presidential race

拜登正式开启竞选连任之战

America’s future, and the West’s cohesion, rest on octogenarian shoulders

美国的未来、西方的团结，系于八旬老者一身

The American presidential election of 2024 will feature Joe Biden against the Republican nominee. The polls suggest that person will be Donald Trump. Mr Biden announced his re-election bid on April 25th, the fourth anniversary of the start of his previous presidential campaign. Though in fact this will be the fourth time Mr Biden has run for president: his first attempt came before the fall of the Soviet Union or, for those who think in terms of Michael Jackson’s discography, between “Bad” and “Dangerous”. Were he to win and complete a second term, he would be 86 when he left office. America’s population is much younger than that of other Western democracies, its economy more vibrant. Its politics, however, are gerontocratic.

2024年美国总统选举的最终对决将在乔·拜登与共和党提名人之间展开。民调显示，这个提名人将是唐纳德·特朗普。4月25日，拜登宣布竞选连任美国总统，正是四年前（即2019年）的这一天，他宣布参加2020年总统选举。实际上，这将是拜登第四次竞选总统：第一次参加竞选时，苏联都还没有解体。要是以迈克尔·杰克逊发布专辑的时间为参照，那时应介于Bad和Dangerous问世之间。如果拜登再次当选，并且顺利完成第二个任期，那他卸任时将已86岁高龄。和其他西方民主国家相比，美国人口更加年轻，经济更有活力。然而，美国政治却由老年人主导。

Those two facts—Mr Biden’s familiarity and his age—help explain why 70% of Americans do not want him to run again, a number that includes 50% of Democrats. Were he an inspiring campaigner, the span between his first presidential bid and his first successful one might not have been 32 years. In 2020 Mr Biden’s candidacy was the answer to a problem the Democratic Party had created for itself. The front-runner in the primaries, Bernie Sanders, would have been a huge risk for the party to take, given his hard-left policies and the substantial risk that he would have lost to President Trump. Who among the field had the greatest chance of holding off Mr Sanders and then beating Mr Trump? It was the guy who had always been there, the man whose appeal was that, in a time of too much political excitement, he was a bit dull.

鉴于拜登已多次参加总统竞选且年事已高，70%的美国人不希望他再次参选，其中包括50%的民主党人。假若他真的能够鼓舞人心，那么他第一次参加选举和首次竞选成功的时间间隔可能就不会达到32年之久。2020年，拜登之所以成为总统候选人，实际是民主党为了解决一个自找的麻烦。初选领先者伯尼·桑德斯奉行强硬的左翼政策，而且很可能输给特朗普，如果他成为候选人，民主党将承担巨大风险。在初选角逐中，谁最有可能阻挡桑德斯的脚步，并最终击败特朗普？答案就是拜登这个一直在参选的人。在一个政局过于波云诡谲的时代，他的平淡无奇反倒成为了亮点。

Four years on, the Democratic Party is stuck with a similar dilemma. Incumbent presidents always run again if they think they will win their primary. The Democratic Party hasplenty of talent: Gretchen Whitmer, the governor of Michigan,Raphael Warnock, a senator from Georgia, Andy Beshear, the governor of Kentucky, to name a few, have all shown the ability to win in places where Republicans are competitive. But Democrats are a more orderly bunch than Republicans these days. No serious candidates wish to destabilise a sitting president’s campaign. And so Mr Biden’s only primary challengers so far are a former spiritual adviser to Oprah Winfrey and an anti-vaccine campaigner. If the field stays like that, there may be no Democratic primary debates next year at all.

如今民主党再次面临两难境地，与四年前如出一辙。大部分在任总统会在有把握赢得党内初选的情况下再次竞选。民主党内人才济济，如密歇根州州长格雷琴·惠特默（Gretchen Whitmer）、佐治亚州参议员拉斐尔·沃诺克（Raphael Warnock）、肯塔基州州长安迪·贝希尔（Andy Beshear）等等，他们都从各自所在的深红区中突出重围。但是，如今的民主党比共和党更团结有序，没有人真的想成为拜登连任的绊脚石。因此，迄今为止在初选中挑战拜登的只有奥普拉·温弗瑞的前精神顾问，以及一名反疫苗活动人士。如果竞选阵容保持不变，明年可能根本就不会有民主党初选辩论了。

And yet this is not as sorry a position as it might seem. Yes, most Americans do not want Mr Biden to run again. But reluctant Democrats will line up behind their nominee. And, more importantly, an even higher number do not want another four years of Mr Trump. Among voters in general, Mr Biden’s numbers (minus ten points if you subtract those who feel negatively about him from those who feel positive) beat Mr Trump’s (minus 19). Nor is Mr Biden’s approval rating as bad as it seems if the point of comparison is not just past American presidents but the current presidents and prime ministers of other rich countries. Western voters are hard to lead in the 2020s: Justin Trudeau in Canada, Rishi Sunak in Britain and Emmanuel Macron in France all have even lower approval ratings than Mr Biden (see chart).

然而，这种情况看似糟糕，其实不然。诚然，大多数美国人不希望拜登再次参选。但民主党人再不情愿，也会支持党内候选人。而且，更关键的是，不想看到特朗普再执政四年的美国人甚至更多。拜登的净支持率比特朗普在任时更高，前者是负10个百分点，而后者是负19个百分点（净支持率等于普通选民支持率数值减去反对率数值）。如果比较对象不限于历任美国总统，还包括其他富裕国家的现任政府首脑，那么拜登的支持率似乎也没表面上那么糟糕。在21世纪20年代，做西方国家领导人实在太难：加拿大总理贾斯廷·特鲁多、英国首相里希·苏纳克和法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙的支持率都比拜登还低（见图表）。

In theory, sitting presidents run on their records. Were that the case, Mr Biden could feel more confident ahead of next year’s vote. He has done more than almost anyone to prevent Russia from taking over Ukraine, without deploying any American troops. At home his big idea has been to pursue anindustrial policy aimed at increasing the domestic manufacture of semiconductor chips, thereby easing American dependence on Taiwan, and to hand out subsidies aimed at speeding up the decarbonisation of America’s economy. This may be unwelcome to free-traders (and to some allies), but it goes with the mood of a country that has profited richly from globalisation while remaining convinced that it is under threat from foreign trade. As president, Mr Biden’s boast that he could makedeals with the Senate that others could not—because he had spent 36 years working there—turned out to be true.

理论上，现任总统竞选连任的底气来自自身政绩。这样看的话，拜登可以更有信心赢下明年的选举。在俄乌冲突问题上，尽管美国未出一兵一卒，但是拜登已经比其他国家领导人付出的努力都多。在国内，他的一个重大思路是通过产业政策提升半导体芯片的产量，从而减少对中国台湾的依赖，并发放补贴以加速美国经济脱碳。此举可能会使自由贸易支持者（以及某些盟友）反感，但却迎合了美国目前的主流思潮——尽管从全球化中获利颇丰，美国人民仍然坚信国际贸易对本国构成巨大的威胁。作为总统，拜登曾夸口说他能与参议院达成其他人无法达成的协议，毕竟他在那里工作了36年，事实证明他没有吹牛。

In practice, though, elections are not just referendums on the achievements of the incumbent. Campaigning matters. And Mr Biden is not very good at it. The video announcing his 2024 run was an admission of that: the president is better when chopped into small clips, set against a stirring soundtrack with images of happy Americans, than he is giving a speech in front of a crowd. His vice-president, whose autocue sometimes seems to be controlled by Armando Iannucci, is not much help either. Voters seem uncomfortably aware that, should Mr Biden die in office, the burden of command will pass to someone who seems unprepared for it.

但是现实是，总统选举并不仅仅是对现任总统的政绩进行公投。竞选活动也很重要，而拜登在这方面并不擅长。他宣布参选2024年选举的视频就印证了这一点：与在人群前发表演讲相比，将总统的画面剪辑成小片段、配以激动人心的音乐，再加上人们的一张张笑脸，这样能够更好地展现拜登的形象。他的副总统对竞选活动也发挥不了什么积极作用，她在演讲时，有时让人觉得提词器就像是由阿尔曼多·伊安努奇（Armando Iannucci）操作的一样。选民似乎不安地意识到，如果拜登在任期间永眠，指挥大权将落在一个似乎毫无准备的人身上。

注释：

In the context of the paragraph, "Armando Iannucci" is mentioned in reference to the perceived lack of control that Vice President Kamala Harris has over her autocue, or teleprompter. Armando Iannucci is a British writer and comedian known for his work on political satire, including the TV show "The Thick of It" and the movie "In the Loop." The mention of his name here may suggest that the writer sees a comedic element to the situation or that the situation is reminiscent of the humorous depictions of political incompetence in Iannucci's work.

In 2020 Mr Biden hardly had to campaign because big gatherings of people were prevented by the spread of covid-19. That suited him, as did the economic slowdown brought about by the pandemic. What will matter even more in 2024 is the performance of the economy. Incumbent presidents running with a strong economy almost always win. Which is another way of saying that a Biden-Trump rematch would be much more uncertain than it should be, relying on factors beyond Mr Biden’s control. If Mr Trump is indeed the nominee, he promises a revenge presidency (“I am your retribution,” he declared to fans at a recent conservative conference); and his second White House will be staffed with true believers. The task of preventing that would once again fall on Mr Biden’s octogenarian shoulders. Every stumble he makes over the next year and a half will be a reminder of that burden.

2020年，由于新冠疫情，大规模的人群聚集活动无法开展，拜登几乎用不着进行竞选活动。这对他来说是一个利好因素，疫情带来的经济放缓也是如此。而在2024年，经济表现的重要性会愈加凸显。如果经济强劲，现任总统几乎总能成功连任。这也意味着，由于许多决定因素不在拜登掌控范围内，他与特朗普再次对决的结果将更加不确定。如果特朗普真的成为候选人，他承诺将会在当选后展开复仇（他在最近的保守派会议上对支持者们宣称：“我会替你们复仇”）；如果他再次入主白宫，政府将会充斥着他的忠实拥趸。阻止这种情况发生的任务将再次落在八旬之龄拜登的肩上。接下来的一年半，拜登每一步的蹒跚与踉跄，都是这份千钧重担的明证。

Yo，女，种下过流星，立志不做大鸵鸟

Jessie，女，翻译界林黛玉，想被人叫大佬

Trista，女，暴富不是梦想，是未来的现实

Iris，博物馆小可爱

Alison，“贪玩又自由的风筝”

Harold，一笔二口，寄蜉蝣于天地，渺沧海之一粟

Diamond，理工科永久性脑损伤，做最高谈阔论的低语者

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