割全世界的韭菜，漂亮国上演强者愈强 | 经济学人社论

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Leaders | Riding high 

社论 | 一帆风顺

英文部分选自经济学人20230415社论版块

Leaders | Riding high 

社论 | 一帆风顺

The lessons from America’s astonishing economic record

美国经济强盛的启示

The world’s biggest economy is leaving its peers ever further in the dust

世界最大经济体一骑绝尘

If there is one thing that Americans of all political stripes can agree on, it is that the economy is broken. Donald Trump, who saw trade as a rip-off and his country in decline, came into office promising to make America great again. President Joe Biden is spending $2trn remaking the economy, hoping to build it back better. Americans are worried. Nearly four-fifths tell pollsters that their children will be worse off than they are, the most since the survey began in 1990, when only about two-fifths were as gloomy. The last time so many thought the economy was in such terrible shape, it was in the throes of the global financial crisis.

如果有什么能让美国三教九流达成共识，那就是大家一致认为美国经济已是千疮百孔。唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）唱衰美国经济，认为国际贸易都是来抢钱的，当年入主白宫时承诺要“让美国再次伟大”。拜登（Joe Biden）总统宣布拨款两万亿美元复苏经济，希望振兴美国。民众并不乐观。调查显示，近80%民众认为他们的孩子们以后过得将不如他们，比例达到自1990年该调查开始以来的最高点——当年，这一数字仅为40%左右。而上次有如此多人认为经济形势极差，还是在全球金融危机“阵痛期”。

Yet the anxiety obscures a stunning success story—one of enduring but underappreciated outperformance. America remains the world’s richest, most productive and most innovative big economy. Along an impressive number of dimensions, it is leaving its peers ever further in the dust.

然而，焦虑的背后，人们忽视了美国的经济是多么的强劲——十年如一日的黄金岁月，却鲜有人为之雀跃。美国仍是世界上最富裕、生产效率最强、最具创新性的经济强国。从多方面而言，美国都堪称一骑绝尘。

Start with the familiar measure of economic success: gdp. In 1990 America accounted for a quarter of the world’s output, at market exchange rates. Thirty years on, that share is almost unchanged, even as China has gained economic clout. America’s dominance of the rich world is startling. Today it accounts for 58% of the g7’s gdp, compared with 40% in 1990. Adjusted for purchasing power, only those in über-rich petrostates and financial hubs enjoy a higher income per person. Average incomes have grown much faster than in western Europe or Japan. Also adjusted for purchasing power, they exceed $50,000 in Mississippi, America’s poorest state—higher than in France.

首先谈一谈那项我们都熟悉的经济衡量指标：GDP。按市场汇率计算，1990年美国GDP占全球的四分之一。30年过去了，依旧如此，尽管在此期间中国迅速崛起。美国在富裕国家中稳坐霸主地位，着实令人赞叹。美国占七国集团GDP的比重已从1990年的40%上升到了如今的58%。按购买力计算，人均收入比美国高的，也只有富得流油的产油国和金融中心。美国的人均收入增速也远高于西欧或日本。同样按购买力计算，哪怕美国最“穷”密西西比州，人均收入也超过5万美元，比法国还要高。

The record is as impressive for many of the ingredients of growth. America has nearly a third more workers than in 1990, compared with a tenth in western Europe and Japan. And, perhaps surprisingly, more of them have graduate and postgraduate degrees. True, Americans work more hours on average than Europeans and the Japanese. But they are significantly more productive than both.

美国在其他经济要素的表现同样卓越不凡。劳动力较1990年增长近1/3，而西欧和日本增幅仅为1/10。而且，可能意想不到的是，美国现在持学士和硕士学位的人也更多了。虽然美国人的平均工作时间超过欧洲和日本，但生产效率也远超二者。

American firms own more than a fifth of patents registered abroad, more than China and Germany put together. All of the five biggest corporate sources of research and development(R&D) are American; in the past year they have spent $200bn. Consumers everywhere have benefited from their innovations in everything from the laptop and the iPhone to artificial-intelligence chatbots. Investors who put $100 into the s&p 500 in 1990 would have more than $2,000 today, four times what they would have earned had they invested elsewhere in the rich world.

美国企业海外专利数量在全球占比中超1/5，高于中国和德国的总和。研发投入最多的前五家企业均来自美国，其研发支出去年达2000亿美元。让全球消费者受益的各种创新成果不胜枚举，包括笔记本电脑、苹果手机，及AI聊天机器人。1990年投资100美金购买标普500，现在的价值将达到2000美元，而若是投资其他富裕国家，现值仅有此数字的四分之一。

注释：标准普尔500指数(S&P 500 Index)，是记录美国500家上市公司的一个股票指数,由标准普尔公司创建并维护。标准普尔500指数覆盖的所有公司，都是在美国主要交易所，如纽约证券交易所、Nasdaq交易的上市公司。与道琼斯指数相比，标准普尔500指数包含的公司更多，因此风险更为分散，能够反映更广泛的市场变化。

One retort to this could be that Americans trade higher incomes for less generous safety-nets. America’s spending on social benefits, as a share of gdp, is indeed a great deal stingier than other countries’. But those benefits have become more European and, as the economy has grown, they have grown even faster. Tax credits for workers and children have become more generous. Health insurance for the poorest has expanded, notably under President Barack Obama. In 1979 means-tested benefits amounted to a third of the poorest Americans’ pre-tax income; by 2019 these came to two-thirds. Thanks to this, incomes for America’s poorest fifth have risen in real terms by 74% since 1990, much more than in Britain.

可能会有人反驳：美国的高收入是以牺牲社会保障为代价的。的确，美国社会福利支出占GDP比重远低于其他国家，但是已经逐渐向欧洲看齐，增速也随经济增长而加快。针对职工和儿童的税额减免力度更大了，最贫困人群医疗保险覆盖面更广了（特别是在奥巴马总统执政期间）。基于收入水平发放的保障金在1979年是最贫困人口税前收入的1/3，2019年已达到三分之二。所以，处于最低20%的收入群体自1990年以来的实际收入增加74%，远超英国。

注释：means-tested adj.an examination into the financial state of a person to determine eligibility for public assistance 按收入调查结果支付的

For the world as a whole, America’s outperformance says much about how to grow. One lesson is that size matters. America has the benefit of a large consumer market over which to spread the costs of R&D, and a deep capital market from which to raise finance. Only China, and perhaps one day India, can boast of purchasing power at such scale. Other countries have sought to mimic it. But even those in Europe, which have got the closest, have struggled to become a true single market. Differences in bankruptcy laws and contractual terms, together with a variety of regulatory barriers, prevent bankers, accountants and architects from touting services across borders.

美国经济的卓越表现一骑绝尘对全球各国都有很大的借鉴意义。其一：规模很重要。美国坐拥庞大的消费者市场，研发成本得以消化。美国资本市场发达，投融资实力雄厚。目前只有中国（可能印度也快了）具有如此规模的购买力。其他国家一直想效仿美国，但是，哪怕是紧追其后的欧洲，也终究没能形成一个真正意义上的单一市场。由于破产法、合同条款存在差异，加上各种监管壁垒，欧洲的银行家、会计师和建筑师难以提供跨国服务。

The size and the quality of the workforce matters, too. America was blessed with a younger population and a higher fertility rate than other rich countries. That may not be easily remedied elsewhere, but countries can at least take inspiration from America’s high share of immigrants, who in 2021 made up 17% of its workforce, compared with less than 3% in ageing Japan.

劳动力的规模和素质同样重要。相比其他发达国家，美国人口更年轻，生育率更高。虽然人口问题的解决很难一蹴而就，但是，各国至少可以从美国的高移民占比获得启发。2021年，移民占美国劳动人口的17%，而在老龄化的日本则不足3%。

Another lesson is the value of dynamism. Starting a business is easy in America, as is restructuring it through bankruptcy. The flexibility of the labour market helps employment adapt to shifting patterns of demand. Already many of the workers in America who were laid off from Alphabet and other tech firms at the start of the year are applying their sought-after skills elsewhere, or setting up their own businesses. In continental Europe, by contrast, tech firms are still negotiating lay-offs, and may think twice about hiring there in future.

其二：市场活力很重要。在美国创业很容易，破产重组也不难。劳动力市场具有灵活性，使就业可以适应变化着的市场需求。年初被Alphabet和其他科技公司裁员的许多员工，因其抢手的技能已经另谋高就，或者自己创业了。反观欧洲大陆，科技公司仍未走下裁员谈判桌，恐怕未来也不敢积极招人了。

Americans should find the economy’s performance reassuring. If history is a guide, living standards will continue to go up for the next generation, even as the country bears the costs of decarbonising the economy. Yet, resilient as the growth record has been, there are shadows. The middle class has seen its post-tax incomes rise by less than those of both the poorest and the richest. A group of people have fallen into hard times. The share of prime-age American men who are not in work has been rising for years and is higher than in Britain, France and Germany. And life expectancy in America lags shamefully behind others in the rich world, mainly on account of too many younger people dying from drug overdoses and gun violence. Tackling such problems should be easier when the economy as a whole is growing. But America’s poisonous politics are no help.

美国经济表现良好，民众其实不需要担心。基于历史经验，即使美国要付出脱碳成本，下一代的生活质量仍会更好。但是，尽管美国经济一如既往地表现出强劲的韧性，仍有阳光照不到的地方。中产阶级的税后收入增幅低于最贫困与最富裕者。许多人已经身陷困境。年富力强的无业男性人口比例连年增长，高于英国、法国和德国。美国人的平均寿命也低于其他发达国家，实属不该，这主要是因为太多年轻人死于过量吸毒和枪支暴力。美国经济整体向好，所以这些问题应该不难解决。但美国乌烟瘴气的政治局面只会帮倒忙。

In addition, the more that Americans think their economy is a problem in need of fixing, the more likely their politicians are to mess up the next 30 years. Although America’s openness brought prosperity for its firms and its consumers, both Mr Trump and Mr Biden have turned to protectionism and the politics of immigration have become toxic. Subsidies could boost investment in deprived areas in the short term, but risk dulling market incentives to innovate. In the long run they will also entrench wasteful and distorting lobbying. The rise of China and the need to fight climate change both confront America with fresh challenges. All the more reason, then, to remember what has powered its long and successful run.

而且，美国民众越是担忧经济发展是个问题，美国政界就越有可能破坏未来30年经济的发展。尽管美国的开放为本国企业和消费者带来了繁荣，但是特朗普和拜登大搞贸易保护主义，在移民问题上，党派攻讦可谓是乌烟瘴气。补贴能够在短期内刺激贫困地区的投资，但也会减少市场创新的动力。从长远看，补贴会使无用且扭曲的的游说问题更难改变。大国崛起和应对气候变化也给美国带来更多问题。因此，美国更不应该忘记他作为常胜将军的底色。

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