李子大的冰雹，持续的野火，极端天气为什么越来越多？

Wang, having worked in Rome, Italy, for four years, notably observed a rise in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in the country. In the southern part of Italy, wildfires are getting more frequent in summer and are beginning to spread to the central parts, she said.

Under the influence of global warming, extreme weather events such as heat waves and floods may become Europe's "new normal" in summer and have increasingly affected the European population, economy and nature, the European Environment Agency said in a recent report. Between 1980 and 2021, weather- and climate-related extremes caused economic losses estimated at $606 billion in the European Union, while nearly 195,000 fatalities have been caused by floods, storms, heat and cold waves, forest fires, and landslides, the agency said.

世界上许多其他地区也经历了罕见的高温和暴雨，导致农业生产受到干扰，基础设施遭到破坏，以及人们健康和安全受到威胁。在美国，8月8日夏威夷毛伊岛的野火至少造成115人死亡，几百人失踪，这使得这场火灾成为一个多世纪以来美国最致命的火灾。

Many other regions across the world have also experienced record-breaking temperatures and precipitation patterns, leading to disruptions in agriculture, infrastructure damage, and threats to human health and safety. In the United States, the Maui wildfires in Hawaii on Aug 8 have killed at least 115 and left hundreds of others missing, making them the deadliest in the US in more than a century.

Qu Sixiao, senior project manager of the global consultancy Roland Berger, said extreme weather events are caused by the overall climate change, and the core reason for climate change is excessive greenhouse gas emissions from human activities since the industrial era, which surpassed the capacity of the environment.  

而气候变化带来的影响主要包括两个方面：一是导致全球温度上升，进而导致海平面上升，极地冰层融化等。二是导致某些地区的极端天气事件明显增加，包括温度变化加剧，降水增强，以及严重风暴或飓风的增多。

Climate change has two main impacts, he said. On the one hand, it contributes to the rise in global temperatures, which, in turn, leads to increased sea levels, melting of polar ice, and so on. On the other hand, because of global warming, certain areas are experiencing a significant increase in extreme weather events, including intensifying temperature variations, enhanced precipitation, and a rise in severe storms or hurricanes.

Extreme weather events can have a significant impact on the comfort, efficiency, and safety of individuals in their personal lives and work, Qu said. "They also possess strong physical destructive properties, which can result in significant property damage caused by accidents such as floods and landslides. In the longer term and on a larger scale, extreme weather events have the potential to reshape global geopolitical relations, because some countries may even be submerged by the rising sea levels."‍

联合国粮农组织高级经济学家莫妮卡·托索瓦（Monika Tothova）称，极端天气事件和变化的气候模式还会对农业生产以及食品的加工和运输产生影响。

Monika Tothova, an economist at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, said extreme weather events and changing weather patterns have implications on agricultural production as well as the processing and transportation of food.

一些地理区域可能变得不适合农业生产，而另外某些地方的气候条件也可能变得更适合农业生产。除了生产活动本身，用于农业的运输链也可能受极端天气事件影响，例如用于运输货物的河流在某些季节变得过浅，无法进行航运。

Some geographic areas might become more hostile to agricultural production, while weather conditions in others might make them more suitable.Transportation links might also be affected if, for example, rivers used to transport goods become seasonally too shallow to allow navigation.

图源：新华社

"Overall, the keyword remains 'uncertainty': Uncertainty of changing temperatures, rainfall, and weather patterns," she said. "Thus, the food systems' transformation is also aimed at making them more resilient to the effects of climate change."

极端天气事件不仅会影响到粮食的总产量，进而影响食品的供应，还会影响农民的生计，其中对小规模农户的影响会特别严重。

Extreme weather events impact not only total production and thus the availability of the food, but also the livelihoods of farmers, with particularly detrimental effects on small-scale farmers who often lack sufficient resilience capacity, she said.

面对气候变化所带来的紧迫威胁，国际社会也开展了积极行动。190多个国家签订了《巴黎协定》，承诺共同努力将全球变暖幅度限制在工业化前水平之上的2度以下，并力图将温度增幅限制在1.5度以内，来应对气候变化。近150个国家和地区承诺实现碳中和。 

The threat posed by climate change is indeed urgent, and it is a positive step that more than 190 parties have signed the Paris Agreement with a goal to combat climate change by limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees. Nearly 150 countries and regions worldwide have made commitments to achieving carbon neutrality.

"But meanwhile, the world is facing the impacts of the pandemic, volatility in the energy market, and increasing geopolitical tensions, leading major economies to pay more attention to energy security, food security, and supply chain security. This makes global efforts to address climate change extremely challenging," said Ma Jun, director of the Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs in Beijing.

他还表示，过去两年间，全球碳排放并没有减少，反而在增加。因此，目前没有可靠的途径去达到将升温控制在1.5度的目标，整体形势还非常困难。

In the past two years, carbon emissions have been increasing rather than decreasing. Therefore, there is currently no reliable pathway to achieve the 1.5-degree target, and the overall situation is very difficult, he said.

“要实现真正有效的全球气候治理，我们需要在技术进步、政策和跨领域合作方面作出更多努力。艰巨的挑战意味着我们需要在应对气候变化方面寻找创新的方式。只有通过全球合作和努力，我们才能应对气候变化的挑战，保护我们的地球，”他说。

"To achieve genuine and effective global climate governance, efforts are required in terms of technological advancements, policies, and collaboration across sectors. The daunting challenges mean that we need to seek innovative ways in our climate response. Only through global cooperation and efforts can we address the challenges of climate change and safeguard the future of our planet."

编辑：杨然

来源：中国日报 新华社