通胀上升可能会推迟美联储降息，这对经济和拜登的连任都是一个问题

【中美创新时报2024年3月21日讯】（记者温友平编译）近期通胀上升给经济和拜登总统的连任带来了双重麻烦，美国人支付汽油和租金等生活必需品的费用增加，同时可能推迟降息，而降息可能会减轻他们的财务负担并促进经济增长。《波士顿环球报》记者吉姆·普赞格拉（Jim Puzzanghera）对此作了如下报道。 

去年通货膨胀率从 2022 年的四个十年高位大幅下降，部分原因是美联储大幅提高利率以抑制消费者和企业支出。这一努力取得了令人惊讶的成功，经济避免了通常伴随该战略的衰退和失业。

但根据美国汽车协会的数据，近几个月来，由于天然气价格上涨等因素，使通货膨胀完全恢复正常的进展陷入停滞，目前马萨诸塞州和全国范围内的天然气价格高于一年前。年度消费者价格指数自去年初的6.4%大幅下降后，自10月份以来一直徘徊在3.1%至3.4%之间。

美联储官员周三一致投票决定将基准利率维持在 5.25% 至 5.5% 之间，符合预期，并继续预测今年将三次下调 25 个百分点。投资者预计首次降息将在 6 月进行，但美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔 (Jerome Powell) 周三才表示，降息可能会“在今年的某个时候”开始。

鲍威尔在谈到最近的通胀数据时表示：“我认为我们真的不知道这是否是路上的坎坷或其他原因。” 他承认“通胀仍然过高”，美联储官员将等待降息，直到他们对通胀恢复正常“更有信心”。

美联储官员仍预期今年三次降息的消息刺激金融市场上涨，美国主要股指收盘创历史新高。但央行前经济学家克劳迪娅·萨姆表示，当美联储官员真正降息时，每个人都在“吐口水”。

“除非他们认为自己有足够好的通胀数据，否则他们不会降息，”她表示。“我们不知道它的定义是什么。但我们知道我们还没有。”

降息将通过降低借贷成本来提振经济。较低的抵押贷款利率也将有助于使住房更加负担得起。拜登一直在通过新举措来瞄准住房成本，例如提议在两年内为首次购房者和出售新房的人提供 10,000 美元的税收抵免。

“通货膨胀持续下降。预计会这样做。抵押贷款利率也将下降。但我不会等待。”拜登周二在拉斯维加斯谈到他在国情咨文演讲中公布的住房负担能力提案时表示。

3 月 7 日发表讲话后，拜登在前往战场州的闪电战中还强调了他降低美国人成本的其他举措。其中包括他上周在新罕布什尔州之行时宣扬的已纳入法律的措施，将参加医疗保险的人的胰岛素价格限制在 35 美元，并将参加该计划的人每年的自付费用处方费用限制在 2,000 美元。

拜登一直在与经济低支持率作斗争，这是他连任面临的最大挑战。在过去的一年里，他大肆宣扬自己为降低通货膨胀和减少美国人的日常开支所做的努力，包括打击公司在音乐会门票、信用卡账单和其他项目中添加的所谓垃圾费。

白宫国家经济委员会副主任乔恩·多嫩伯格表示：“我认为我们在通胀方面看到了很大进展，而且我们看到了一个真正有弹性和强劲的经济。” “话虽如此，降低成本确实仍然是总统的首要任务。”

自由主义激进组织进步变革运动委员会联合创始人亚当·格林表示，拜登注重降低具体成本，而不是宣扬积极的经济数据，这是提高其支持率的关键。

格林说：“住房负担能力与汽油、杂货和其他日常用品的价格相当，拜登关注这一点是明智的。” “它既承认人们感受到的痛苦，也承认他提出的解决方案，这与[假定的共和党候选人唐纳德]特朗普形成了鲜明的对比，特朗普在此类问题上绝对不会采取任何行动。”

自2022年6月消费者物价指数年率达到9.1%以来，共和党人一直在通胀问题上对拜登进行猛烈抨击。他们指责拜登2021年初颁布的美国救援计划大流行救助法案导致通胀飙升。

共和党全国委员会发言人安娜·凯利在一份声明中表示：“在乔·拜登的领导下，美联储将利率提高至 23 年来的最高水平，这让那些已经在拜登通胀影响下苦苦挣扎的家庭生活更加艰难。” “由于拜登的政策，从住房、租金、汽油到食品杂货的一切都太贵了，但当美国人在 11 月当选唐纳德·J·特朗普总统时，情况就会有所缓解。”

特朗普竞选发言人没有回应置评请求。

经济学家表示，华盛顿的支出导致了通胀飙升，与大流行相关的供应链问题和俄罗斯入侵乌克兰也导致了通胀飙升，由于美国及其盟国对俄罗斯石油实施制裁，导致燃油价格上涨。

2023 年的大部分时间里，通胀稳步下降，2 月份年度消费者价格指数为 3.2%。美联储更倾向于采取不同的政府措施，即 1 月份的利率为 2.8%，接近央行 2% 的目标。但最近的月度通胀数据高于预期。

哈佛大学经济学家凯伦·迪南表示：“过去几个月，我们有一些迹象表明，降低通胀的进展可能已经停滞，通胀可能会比我们想象的更加顽固，无法回到目标水平。”

鲍威尔周三表示，美联储官员目前可能已经不再加息，他们预计通胀将继续呈下降趋势。但迪南表示，势头停滞可能意味着美联储今年最终只会降息两次。

总统选举也可能成为降息的一个复杂因素。美联储作为一个独立的政府机构，历史上一直试图不在总统选举前几周调整利率，以避免出现偏袒政党的情况。

2016年，特朗普指责美联储维持低利率以帮助民主党保住白宫。作为总统，他打破了多年来的传统，公开批评美联储加息以避免通货膨胀。特朗普最近表示，他不太可能再次提名鲍威尔连任美联储主席，他最初于 2017 年提名鲍威尔担任美联储主席。

特朗普对福克斯商业网表示，他相信身为共和党人的鲍威尔今年会降息以帮助拜登。2021年，拜登不顾自由派的反对，再次提名鲍威尔担任美联储主席，任期四年。

周一，包括马萨诸塞州参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦和波士顿众议员阿亚娜·普莱斯利在内的 21 名国会进步民主党人写信给鲍威尔，敦促他降低“过高的利率”。

鲍威尔表示，美联储在决策中不会考虑政治因素。迪南认为，对抗通胀的斗争将超越美联储官员对政治表现的任何担忧。

迪南谈到美联储在 11 月 5 日大选前的最后一次会议时表示：“如果数据证明 9 月份降息，我认为他们会在 9 月份降息，即使他们因为担心政治考虑而感到不那么舒服。” 。

题图：美国全国天然气价格均高于一年前。DAVID PAUL MORRIS/BLOOMBERG

附原英文报道：

An inflation uptick could delay Fed rate cuts, a problem for the economy and Biden’s reelection

By Jim Puzzanghera Globe Staff,Updated March 20, 2024

WASHINGTON — A recent uptick in inflation poses double trouble for the economy and President Biden’s reelection, increasing what Americans pay for staples such as gas and rent while potentially delaying interest rate cuts that could ease their financial burden and boost economic growth.

Inflation declined significantly last year from a four-decade high in 2022, partly because the Federal Reserve has aggressively raised interest rates to tamp down spending by consumers and businesses. The effort has been surprisingly successful, with the economy avoiding the recession and job losses that usually accompany the strategy.

But progress in bringing inflation all the way back down to normal has stalled in recent months, thanks to factors such as rising gas prices, which now are higher than they were a year ago in Massachusetts and nationwide, according to AAA. The annual consumer price index has been stuck between 3.1 and 3.4 percent since October after falling sharply from 6.4 percent at the start of last year.

Fed officials on Wednesday unanimously voted to keep their benchmark interest rate between 5.25 percent and 5.5 percent, as expected, and continued to forecast three cuts of a quarter percentage point each this year. Investors anticipate the first cut will happen in June, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell would only say Wednesday that cuts probably would begin “at some point this year.”

“I don’t think we really know whether this is a bump on the road or something more,” Powell said of recent inflation data. He acknowledged that “inflation is still too high” and that Fed officials would wait to cut rates until they “feel more confident” that it’s moving back to normal.

Financial markets shot up on the news that Fed officials still expect three rate cuts this year, and major US stock indexes closed at record highs. But Claudia Sahm, a former economist at the central bank, said everyone is “just spitballing” when Fed officials will actually cut rates.

“They will not cut until they think they have enough good inflation data,” she said. “We don’t know what the definition of that is. But we know we don’t have it yet.”

Interest rate cuts would boost the economy by making borrowing cheaper. Lower mortgage rates would also help make housing more affordable. Biden has been targeting housing costs with new initiatives, such as a proposed $10,000 tax credit over two years for first-time home buyers and people who sell their starter homes.

“Inflation keeps coming down. It’s predicted to do that. Mortgage rates are going to come down as well. But I’m not going to wait,” Biden said Tuesday in Las Vegas of his housing affordability proposals, which he unveiled during his State of the Union address.

In a travel blitz to battleground states following the address on March 7, Biden also highlighted his other moves to lower Americans’ costs. Those include measures already in law that he touted in a trip to New Hampshire last week that cap the price of insulin at $35 for people on Medicare and limit annual out-of-pocket prescriptions costs at $2,000 for people in the program.

Biden has struggled with low approval ratings on the economy, an issue that’s his biggest reelection challenge. Over the past year, he’s trumpeted his efforts to bring down inflation and reduce Americans’ day-to-day expenses, including fighting so-called junk fees that companies add to concert tickets, credit card bills, and other items.

“I think we’re seeing a lot of progress on inflation, and we’re seeing a really resilient and strong economy,” said Jon Donenberg, deputy director of the White House’s National Economic Council. “That said, lowering costs really remains the president’s top priority.”

Biden’s focus on lowering specific costs rather than touting positive economic data is key to improving his approval rating, said Adam Green, cofounder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, a liberal activist group.

“Housing affordability is right up there with the price of gas, groceries, and other day-to-day items and that is smart for Biden to be focusing on,” Green said. “It both acknowledges the pain that people feel, and to the extent that he’s proposing solutions, is a nice contrast to [presumptive Republican nominee Donald] Trump, who will do absolutely nothing on issues like that. “

Republicans have hammered Biden on inflation since the consumer price index reached a 9.1 percent annual rate in June 2022. They blamed Biden’s American Rescue Plan pandemic relief bill enacted in early 2021 for causing inflation to skyrocket.

“Under Joe Biden, the Fed hiked interest rates to the highest level in 23 years — making life harder for families already struggling with the impact of Bidenflation,” Republican National Committee spokesperson Anna Kelly said in a statement. “Everything from housing, to rent, to gas, to groceries is too expensive because of Biden’s policies, but relief is on the way when Americans elect President Donald J. Trump in November.”

A Trump campaign spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.

Economists said Washington spending contributed to the inflation spike, as have pandemic-related supply chain problems and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which led to higher fuel prices as the United States and its allies placed sanctions on Russian oil.

Inflation declined steadily through much of 2023 and the annual consumer price index was 3.2 percent in February. The Fed prefers a different government measure that was 2.8 percent in January, close to the central bank’s 2 percent target. But monthly inflation readings have been higher than expected recently.

“The last few months we’ve had some indications that the progress reducing inflation may have stalled, that maybe inflation is going to be a little more stubborn than we thought it would be in terms of getting it back down to target,” said Harvard economist Karen Dynan.

Fed officials are likely done with raising rates for now, Powell said Wednesday, and they expect inflation to continue trending down. But Dynan said the stalled momentum probably means the Fed will end up cutting rates only twice this year.

The presidential election also could be a complicating factor for any rate cuts. The Fed, which is an independent government agency, historically has tried not to adjust interest rates in the weeks before a presidential election to avoid the appearance of favoring a political party.

In 2016, Trump accused the Fed of keeping rates low to help Democrats hold the White House. As president, he broke with years of tradition to publicly criticize the Fed for raising rates to try to stave off inflation. And Trump recently said he was unlikely to renominate Powell, whom he originally picked to lead the Fed in 2017, for another term as chair.

Trump told Fox Business network that he believes Powell, who is a Republican, will cut interest rates this year to help Biden. In 2021, Biden renominated Powell for another four-year term as Fed chair over the objections of liberals.

On Monday, 21 progressive Democrats in Congress, including Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Representative Ayanna Pressley of Boston, wrote to Powell urging him to reduce “excessively high interest rates.”

Powell has said the Fed will not take politics into account in its decisions. And Dynan thinks the fight against inflation will top any concerns Fed officials have about appearing to be political.

“If the data warrant a cut in September, I think they would make the cut in September, even if they weren’t that comfortable because they were worried about political considerations,” Dynan said of the Fed’s last meeting before the Nov. 5 election.