美联储降息前景扑朔迷离 | 经济学人社论

2024-05-08 01:05

写在前面

思维导图：

May Li，男，我要去追逐心中的太阳，还要继续努力的亚古兽

最新资讯：美联储5月FOMC（Federal Open Market Committee）会议

在Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement中，开篇先评价美国当前经济局面：经济活动继续以稳健的步伐扩张。就业增长保持强劲，失业率保持在较低水平。通胀在过去一年有所缓解，但仍处于高位。并直言“In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective. ”

随后讲了一些措施，如：

1）继续将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在5.25%-5.5%的区间；

2）继续减持国债、机构债务和机构抵押贷款支持证券；

3）从6月开始，委员会将把美国国债的每月赎回上限从600亿美元降至250亿美元，从而减缓其证券持有量下降的速度。委员会将维持机构债务和机构抵押贷款支持证券的每月赎回上限为350亿美元，并将超过这一上限的任何本金支付再投资于国债。

在鲍威尔的记者发布会上，当面对是否有加息可能性的问题时，鲍威尔直接表示：I think it's unlikely that the next policy rate move will be a hike. I'd say it's unlikely.以及 So the policy focus has been on, has really been on what to do about holding the current level of restriction.

面对AP NEWS记者的提问：“那么，美联储是否已经放弃了宽松政策的倾向？你怎么看？”鲍威尔表示：“我们对政策利率的决定将取决于即将公布的数据、前景如何演变以及风险平衡……”并指出：So I think, and we think, that policy is well-positioned to address different paths that the economy might take. 由此指出了3条不同的paths：

1）推出降息在这种情况下是合适的：if we did have a path where inflation proves more persistent than expected, and where the labor market remains strong, but inflation is moving sideways and we're not gaining greater confidence, well that would be a case in which it could be appropriate to hold off on rate cuts.

2）if that inflation is moving sustainably down to 2 percent;

3）another path could be an unexpected weakening in the labor market.

也就是说，如果通胀率达到2%的目标，或者劳动力市场降温，那么就可能降息。所以鲍威尔在发布会上对降息的态度是十分朦胧的。

链接：

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20240501.htm

精读|翻译|词组

Leaders | The second Powell pivot

经济学人社论 | 鲍威尔又转向

英文部分选自经济学人20240420社论版块

Leaders | The second Powell pivot

经济学人社论 | 鲍威尔又转向

America’s interest rates are unlikely to fall this year

美国利率今年恐难下调

That will squeeze financial markets and the world economy

金融市场和世界经济将遇困境

注释：

squeeze: If you are squeezed by financial demands, they cause you financial problems.给…带来财务困难，使陷入财务困境（Cambridge dictionary）

For most of the year everyone from stockpickers and homebuyers to President Joe Biden has banked on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates soon. Over the past two weeks those hopes have been dashed. Annual consumer price inflation in March, at 3.5%, was higher than expected for the third month in a row; retail sales grew by a boomy 0.7% on the previous month. On April 16th Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chairman, warned that the battle against inflation was taking “longer than expected”. Investors had begun 2024 pricing in more than 1.5 percentage points of interest-rate cuts over the course of the year. Today they expect rates to fall by only 0.5 points.

从选股者、购房者到美国总统拜登，所有人在今年大部分时间里都指望着美联储（Federal Reserve）不久将会降息。过去两周，希望化为了泡影。3月，美国的年度消费价格通胀率（CPI）为3.5%，已连续三个月高于预期；零售数据强劲，零售销售额较上月增长0.7%。4月16日，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）警告说，抗通胀的战斗“比预期的要长”。今年年初，投资者预计2024年全年将降息超过1.5个百分点。如今，他们预计利率只会下降0.5个百分点。

Mr Powell has conducted a pivot upon a pivot. The euphoric expectations for rate cuts took on a life of their own after the Fed turned too doveish in December. That unduly stimulated the economy and will force the central bank to retrace its steps, and then some. The consequences of higher-for-longer interest rates will reverberate around America, financial markets and the world economy.

鲍威尔的政策路径变了又变。去年12月，美联储货币政策立场进一步偏向“鸽派”，市场开始萌生出对降息的亢奋预期，经济因而受到不当刺激，迫使美联储重新审视之前的措施，甚至调整方向。长期高利率会对美国国内、金融市场和世界经济产生广泛影响。

America’s economy has demonstrated that it can withstand at least a temporary period of higher rates. On April 16th the imf forecast that it would grow by 2.7% in 2024, up from the 2.1% it expected in January. Yet its resilience to prolonged exposure to high rates is less certain.

美国的经济情况表明，暂时的高利率是可以承受的。4月16日，国际货币基金组织预测2024年美国经济将增长2.7%，高于1月份预计的2.1%。然而，美国对长期高利率的抵御能力却说不准。

Many companies issued corporate debt during the pandemic when rates were much lower. That has helped them cope with high rates so far; but eventually they will have to refinance and pay up. Mortgage-interest rates of nearly 7% have frozen much of the housing market. America’s high and rapidly growing government debt is also becoming much more expensive to service: the yield on ten-year Treasury bonds has risen to about 4.6% from 4.2% at the end of March. Already the most recent forecasts, predicated on lower rates, saw net interest absorbing more of this year’s federal budget than defence.

疫情期间，美国利率“大跳水”，许多公司趁机发行企业债券。目前来看，这些公司的确借此应对高利率危机，但最终还得通过再融资来还清贷款。接近7％的房贷利率“冰封”了美国大部分房市。美国政府债务高、增速快，利息成本也变得越来越高：十年期国债收益率已从3月底的4.2％升至4.6％左右。根据最新预测，在利率较低的情况下，今年联邦预算的净利息支出已经超过了国防支出。

注释：

1.pay up: to give someone the money that you owe them or that they are entitled to, even though you would prefer not to give it. （不情愿地）清偿，付清

2.service: to pay interest on money that has been borrowed. (国家、组织)支付(债息)

3.be predicated on: to be based on a particular belief, idea, or principle基于；取决于；以…为基础

Financial markets will also feel the effects of continued high rates. The Fed’s doveishness in December propelled a stockmarket boom; though that recently lost steam, the s&p 500 index of stocks remains a fifth above its level at the end of October, when rates were last expected to stay higher for longer. Stocks now look vulnerable to a correction.

利率持续高企也将波及金融市场。12月，美联储采取鸽派立场，推动了股市繁荣；尽管股市上涨势头在近期有所减弱，但标普500股票指数仍比10月底高出1/5，当时是最后一次预计利率将持续维持在高水平。然而，现在看来，股市似乎容易出现回调。

注释：

1.Dovish policy (鸽派政策) is the opposite of hawkish, and refers to policy that favors expansionary monetary policy to achieve maximum levels of employment. Doves are policymakers who implement quantitative easing in an attempt to encourage economic growth and low unemployment.

2.correction: a temporary reversal in an overall trend of stock market prices, especially a brief fall during an overall increase回调

Moreover, the problems that high rates exposed in America’s banking system in 2023 still lurk. At the last count there were $478bn of unrealised losses on banks’ balance-sheets, much of which result from higher rates reducing the value of government and mortgage-backed bonds. That figure will have risen now that bond yields have shot up again.

此外，2023年高利率暴露出的美国银行体系问题如今依然存在。最新数据显示，美国银行资产负债表上有4780亿美元的未实现损失，其中大部分是由于利率上升降低了政府债券和抵押债券的价值。现在，债券收益率再次飙升，这一数字也将上升。

注释：

1.on the last count: according to the latest information about a particular situation

2.If something shoots up, it grows or increases very quickly.迅速成长;迅速增加

The consequences of higher rates in America will also ripple out to the rest of the world. Though there are signs of somewhat sticky inflation elsewhere—Britain’s consumer price inflation was also higher than expected in March—no major economy is as hot as America’s. The imf’s forecast for euro-zone growth this year, for example, is just 0.8%. The result is a strengthening dollar, which is up about 5% against its biggest trading partners this year. Strikingly, the Japanese yen has slipped to nearly 155 against the greenback, despite a historic (though modest) monetary tightening in March, prompting speculation that the government may intervene to defend the currency directly.

美国提高利率的后果也会波及世界其他地区。尽管其他地方也存在一些粘性通胀的迹象——英国3月CPI同样高于预期——但是没有哪个主要经济体像美国这么严峻。例如，国际货币基金组织对今年欧元区经济增长的预测仅为0.8%。与之相应的是美元走强，今年美元对其最大贸易伙伴的汇率上涨了大约5%。值得注意的是，尽管日本3月实行了历史性（但温和）的货币紧缩政策，日元对美元汇率已跌至1美元兑155日元，有猜测称政府可能会直接干预以捍卫日元价值。

In theory a stronger dollar should help the rest of the world by making its exports more competitive, and growth in America should spill across borders as it sucks in imports. But a surging greenback can also disrupt trade and borrowing that is denominated in dollars. Economies that rely on commodity imports, such as Japan’s, face a double squeeze from a stronger greenback and a rising dollar price of oil, which is up by about 20% since early December and could rise a little further if strife in the Middle East worsens.

理论上，美元走强会让其余各国的出口更具竞争力，从而惠及全球。同时，美国在加大进口的同时也应该让其他国家尝到这波经济增长的甜头。但是美元暴涨会扰乱以美元结算的贸易和借贷体系。诸如日本等依赖于商品进口的经济体面临愈发强劲的美元和高涨的石油价格的双重挑战。自去年12月起，石油价格上涨了20%，如果中东冲突加剧，价格仍有些许上升空间。

If high interest rates in America end its enviable economic run, rate cuts will eventually follow. Until that time comes, America’s monetary policy will remain a problem for the rest of the world.

如果美国的高利率终结了其令人艳羡的经济繁荣，降息势必随之而来。不过在那之前，世界各国仍会屏息静待美国的货币政策。

翻译组：

zy，当下快乐就是意义

Ryan，学海无涯，译无止境

Cassie，ECNU口译小菜鸡，体制内摸爬滚打教书匠

校对组：

UU，保持低调

Shulin，时间是个好东西

Rex，The one who widens your English~

本期感想：

Neil，男，外贸民工，经济学人铁粉

一鲸落，万物生。美联储的加息或者降息牵动全球市场的神经。现在大多数国家都期待着美国能降息，但是通胀向上抬头，降息的预期持续下降，不排除加息的可能性。这样一来，各国将承受资本外流的压力。当然每个国家的情况有所不同。

对出口导向性的国家，美国加息，美元升值，本国货币贬值，有利于出口，向越南/韩国/土耳其。但是对于进口导向性的国家，进口的成本就增加，像印度/日本。这里会有一个特殊的问题，我们也是一个出口多的国家，我们是希望加息还是降息呢？人民币贬值有利于出口，现在三驾马车中的外贸出口是受益者。但是我们反而更希望降息。因为house压力很大，加息，使得偿还美债的成本增加，无疑对house产业是雪上加霜。RMB的贬值也不利于吸引外资，股票市场也会受到影响。资本是逐利的。来了之后手上的资产在缩水，也就没有来的动力。所以总体来说，我们是希望降息的。

现在的情况不能指望美联储降息，只能另谋出路。现在基本有两个预期：今年预计还会有一次降息，缓解市场流行性的问题。第二个是加快人民币国际化，现在人民币支付在全球拍第四，比例依然较低，这个任务重要但是非常艰巨。要撼动美元地位非一朝一夕，长期战役。

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