英国提前大选，这会是一场政治豪赌吗？ | 经济学人社论

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2024-06-05 01:06

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思维导图：

Angela， “如果这纷乱的世界让我沮丧，我就去看看她们眼中的光芒。”

精读|翻译|词组

Leaders | July 4th celebration

经济学人社论 | 7月4日，英国大选之日

英文部分选自经济学人20240525社论版块

Leaders | July 4th celebration

经济学人社论 | 7月4日，英国大选之日

Rishi Sunak’s election call makes no sense, but is good news

里希·苏纳克宣布提前大选，虽然令人不解，但也是个好消息

Whether an act of political genius or lunacy, Britons should welcome it

无论这是天才在左还是疯子在右，英国人民都应鼓掌欢迎

注释：

1. 当地时间5月22日，英国首相苏纳克宣布，英国将于7月4日举行大选。苏纳克当天在伦敦唐宁街10号首相府门前发表讲话说，他当天早些时候与英国国王查尔斯三世进行交谈，请求解散议会。国王已批准这一请求。唐宁街确认，英国议会将于5月24日休会，5月30日解散，之后开启为期六周的正式竞选活动。

2. 新华社24日消息，英国首相、保守党党首里希·苏纳克和反对党工党党首基尔·斯塔默23日率各自政党启动竞选……Politico的总体民意调查显示，截至5月13日，工党领先保守党21个百分点。而2022年5月差距仅为6个百分点。英国民意和数据公司YouGov4月的研究表示，在即将举行的大选中，工党将赢得403个席位，保守党将赢得155个席位。据此，许多人预测斯塔默将成为下一任首相。

An old axiom of British politics is that the Conservative Party is ruthless in its pursuit of power. Lately it has seemed relentlessly focused on losing it. It has purged talented MPs who did not toe the ideological line on Brexit, a cause that a majority of voters now think was wrong. In Boris Johnson, it picked a leader manifestly unsuited for high office. In Liz Truss, it installed the shortest-lived prime minister in British history and the person who shredded the party’s reputation for economic competence. Now, after taking a long, hard look into the electoral abyss, it has gone ahead and jumped.

翻阅英国政治史册，一笔一划都记载了保守党在追逐权力时的冷酷无情。而近来，保守党似乎让权力不断如流沙般逝于掌心：一些颇具才干的议员因未能在脱欧问题上遵循党派内部的意识形态路线而被扫地出门。现在，大多数选民认为当初英国选择脱欧是错误的决定。在选择党魁上，保守党也不算明智：鲍里斯·约翰逊（Boris Johnson）明显不适合担任要职。之后的伊丽莎白·特拉斯（Liz Truss）成为英国历史上任期最短的首相，她还让保守党在经济治理能力方面声名狼藉。如今，在久久凝视选举的深渊后，保守党迈出一步，纵身一跃。

注释：

1. toe the line on: 1) accept the authority, policies, or principles of a particular group, especially unwillingly; 2) to adhere to the rules of sth.

2. take a long, hard look into: to examine sth very carefully to improve it in the future

On May 22nd Rishi Sunak, the current prime minister, announced that the next general election will be held on July 4th. Mr Sunak could have waited until the end of the year to call a vote. Given the enormous poll lead enjoyed by the Labour Party, the hope that things might somehow improve seemed to most observers like the Conservatives’ only reasonable strategy. Our prediction model currently gives them a chance of less than 1% of winning the election. Instead, Mr Sunak has opted to try his luck.

5月22日，现任首相里希·苏纳克（Rishi Sunak）宣布，新一届大选将于7月4日举行。苏纳克本可等到年底再发起选举投票。鉴于当前工党在民调中遥遥领先，在大多数观察人士看来，寄希望于逆风翻盘似乎是保守党唯一的合理策略。本刊的预测模型认为，保守党赢得大选的机率不足1%。然而，苏纳克选择碰碰运气。

注释：

据观察者网，许多政治人士曾预计，苏纳克可能会将大选时间定在秋季，以便有更多时间让经济复苏，届时执政党与工党的支持率差距可能缩小。新一届大选于7月4日举行，比外界预期的还要早几个月，这被英国媒体视为一场政治豪赌。当前民调中，苏纳克所属的保守党不仅落后于在野的工党，还在前不久的全英各地的地方选举中遭遇“40年以来最糟糕选情”。这也将是英国自1945年以来首次在7月举行大选。

source: https://www.sohu.com/a/781574887_121627717

Whether this decision is an act of political genius or lunacy—and The Economist’s money is on lunacy—Britons should welcome it. The approach of the election has distracted the government and distorted politics for months. The prospect of a transfer of power to Labour has excited endless speculation about who might lead the Tories after Mr Sunak, and encouraged would-be contenders in a future party-leadership campaign to hawk ever-more-outlandish ideas. Mr Sunak himself has repeatedly chopped and changed in advance of the election, positioning himself first as an improbable candidate of change and more recently as a figure of continuity.

无论这一决定是天才在左还是疯子在右的政治选择（本刊认为是后者），英国人民都应该表示欢迎。几个月以来，大选的临近使政府心猿意马，也扰乱了政策的执行。工党接过权柄的可能性引发了人们无尽的猜测：在苏纳克之后，谁将领导保守党？这种权力移交的前景也鼓励了未来党魁竞选中的潜在竞争者提出更加离经叛道的主张。苏纳克自己在选举前也是一再改变立场：先是将自己定位为一个不太可能带来变革的候选者，最近又定位成一个继承前任政策的角色。

注释：

chop and change: To continually change one's course of action, to the confusion or irritation of others.

Electoral considerationshave warped the government’s priorities. Mr Sunak’s greatest energies have gone into an ill-conceived scheme to deport asylum-seekers to Rwanda, a plan that is now unlikely to materialise. Sounding tough on small boats crossing the English Channel might help him ward off the threat on his right flank from Reform uk, an insurgent party that dislikes mass immigration, but it is not the main priority for the country or the electorate. To be fair to Mr Sunak and Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor of the exchequer, they have restored much of the economic credibility lost by Ms Truss and avoided the temptation to dangle egregious sweeteners in front of voters. Even so, an early election does helpfully remove any possibility of a final irresponsible tax-cutting splurge.

选举方面的考量让英国政府搞错了重点。苏纳克耗费了极大精力将那些避难申请者遣送到卢旺达，这一思虑不周的安置计划现在也成了空中楼阁。对横渡英吉利海峡的小船采取强硬态度，可能有助于苏纳克抵御来自反大规模移民的英国右翼改革党的威胁，但对于英国或英国选民而言，这都不是当务之急。老实说，苏纳克和财政大臣杰里米·亨特（Jeremy Hunt）恢复了特拉斯让英国失去的大部分经济信誉，不需要拿出大甜头来吸引选民。即便如此，提前举行大选确实断绝了最终出台不负责任的大幅减税政策的可能性。

It also brings forward the prospect of a period of political stability. The Labour Party is not guaranteed to win the election: the campaign to come will subject its leaders to closer scrutiny than any they have received to date. Big question-marks hover over Labour’s interventionist instincts and how it might handle the difficult trade-offs that actual power would bring, most obviously over tax and spending. But Britain’s deep-rooted problems—ailing public services, insufficient housing, stagnant productivity and more—cannot be solved by a Conservative government that is consumed by factionalism, incapable of building things and dogmatic about issues that might help the economy grow faster, including a closer relationship with the European Union. The Tories could have waited another six months to face the voters. Six weeks is better for Britain.

此外，提前选举有可能带来一段政治稳定期。工党并没有百分百的把握赢下大选：即将到来的竞选活动将使工党领导人面临前所未有的严格审查。工党的干预本能，以及如何处理实权带来的艰难权衡（如最突出的税收和支出问题）都要打上大大的问号。但英国公共服务式微、住房资源不足、生产力停滞等根深蒂固的问题，都是保守党政府无力解决的，因为保守党深陷派系斗争，没有能力搞建设，而且在可能促进经济增长的议题上（包括与欧盟建立紧密关系）固步自封。保守党本可以再等六个月来面对选民。不过对英国而言，六周时间更为合适。

翻译组：

Trista，女，暴富不是梦想，是未来的现实

Humi，在躺平、侧卧和睡梦中寻找诗和远方

校对组：

Charlie，剃刀边缘无比锋利

Collin，男，崇拜科比的一枚小翻译

Lucian，医学翻译，灵魂在杰作中冒险

感想|观点

本周感想作者

Shulin，时间是个好东西

提前大选为哪般

按照英国的传统做法，一般重要讲话都是露天的。5月22日，英国的天气不算太友好，雨淅淅沥沥地下着，没有要停的意思。比原定时间拖了十多分钟后，雨终于小了一点，那就开始吧。苏纳克这才走出唐宁街首相府，开始了他的演讲。

没想到，这雨还就越下越大了，一点面子都不给,在当日的许多新闻报道中都提到了“大雨滂沱”。而比天气更不友好的是，工党支持者在附近用扩音机播放工党1997年的竞选歌曲《Things Can Only Get Better（情况只会越来越好）》，导致现场基本听不清这位站在雨中的首相说了啥。据说，事后是采用了人声增强技术才得以听清这次的演讲，虽然背景声依旧嘈杂，西装革履的苏纳克依旧显得有些狼狈，但好歹有了一丝体面。

苏纳克在讲话中对2022年10月上任以来在经济、移民、教育等领域取得的成就感到“自豪”，并表示保守党对未来有明确计划。2016年“脱欧”公投以来，英国政治陷入了一个充满动荡的时期。短短的六年内，英国五度更换首相，仅在2022年这一年里，英国就历经了三位首相。追忆往昔，民众印象更深的恐怕是这些年来的种种出乎意料。

作为英国200年来最年轻的首相，也是英国历史上首位非白人首相，资历尚浅、资产雄厚的苏纳克当初意外捡漏，喜获天降大任，未料到这一路走来各款大锅那是应接不暇。在英国经济和政治领域的重重困境中，眼下经济增速超出年初预测，通胀也降下来了，形势好转之际索性那就放手一搏，用狼狈转身搏一个体面转场，或许是当下最好的选择。

将于7月4日举行的大选，是英国自1945年以来首场“七月大选”，也是英国国王查尔斯三世即位后举行的首次大选。大火宽好了油，且看粘不粘锅了。