Leaders | The second Powell pivot英文部分选自经济学人20240309社论版块
Leaders | And they’re offThree big risks that might tip America’s presidential electionThird parties, the Trump trials and the candidates’ age introduce a high degree of uncertainty第三党、特朗普的审判以及候选人的年龄问题让美国大选波谲云诡And so it is confirmed. After Super Tuesday, it seems clear that the presidential election of 2024 will be a rematch—the first time a former president has challenged a sitting one since 1912. The candidates are exceptionally well-known, yet about 12% of voters have yet to choose between them. Those swing voters may decide what is shaping up to be a tight race. In the six elections before the year 2000, the average margin of victory in the popular vote was nine points. In the six since 2000 it has been three points. Even that understates how close presidential elections are these days. Just six states will be competitive in November. Last time round 160m Americans voted, but Joe Biden won Wisconsin, the tipping-point state, by 20,000 votes, or 0.013% of the total votes cast. When elections are this close, small differences in the inputs can have world-changing effects.初选已经告一段落。在“超级星期二”（Super Tuesday）之后，2024年的美国总统选举显然将迎来一场“复赛“——这是自1912年以来，前总统与现任总统首次打擂。候选人的名字家喻户晓，然而仍有约12%的选民还未拿定主意。那些摇摆不定的选民可能会决定这场激烈角逐的走向。在2000年之前的六场选举中，普选获胜方平均领先对手9个百分点。2000年之后的六场选举则为3个百分点。即便如此，这仍然低估了目前总统选举的胶着程度。到今年11月，仅有六个摇摆州会左右选情。去年总统大选中，有1.6亿美国人参与投票，但拜登以2万票的优势（占总选票数的0.013%）拿下了关键的威斯康星州。大选在即，选票上的任何风吹草动都可能改变世界。“超级星期二”是一九八四年美国总统大选，两党举行参选人提名初选时，首次出现的专有名词。因为美国总统选举可分为预选和大选两个阶段，根据传统，年初预选时，会有多个州集中在星期二进行选举，其结果对最终党内提名会产生重要影响，这一天因此被称为“超级星期二”。Because of this, any one of a dozen things could tip the election to President Biden or Donald Trump. There are the issues: the economy, the border, abortion. There are the turnout and persuasion operations, the donors and the volunteers. But in this election there are also three other big areas of uncertainty.正因如此，选举中的任何一环都可能决定总统宝座花落谁家：是现任总统拜登，还是特朗普。以下诸多议题都会影响选民决定：经济发展、边境状况、堕胎法案。实际投票率、游说行动、赞助方和志愿者也会影响选举走向。但在这次选举中，还有另外三大不确定因素。The first is the role of third parties. Many Americans find both main parties a bit weird. In theory, breaking their duopoly would be wonderful. In practice, a glance at the existing third-party candidates is a cure for that line of thinking. This year’s crop includes Jill Stein, an environmentalist whose singular contribution to America may have been to ease Mr Trump’s victory in 2016 and his withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement. It includes Cornel West, a left-wing professor who thinks there is not much difference between Mr Biden and Mr Trump. And then there is Robert Kennedy junior.首先是候选“第三党”的影响。许多美国人认为两个主要政党都不太正常。理论上来说，打破它们的双寡头垄断局面是件好事。但实际上，看看现有的第三党候选人，你或许会改变想法。今年的参选者有环保主义者吉尔·斯泰因（Jill Stein），她对美国的唯一贡献可能就是间接降低了特朗普在2016年的获胜难度，进而助他退出巴黎气候协定。参选者还包括左翼教授康奈尔·韦斯特（Cornel West），他认为拜登和特朗普之间没有太大区别。候选者还有小罗伯特·肯尼迪（Robert Kennedy junior）。1. Robert Kennedy Jr.：被刺杀的美国前总统约翰·肯尼迪的侄子。2. 来自4月28日的新闻：美国绿党、73岁的犹太议员吉尔·斯泰因声援学生，怒称遭警察暴力逮捕。《以色列时报》称，斯泰因随后被带上一辆面包车，其正副竞选团队经理也被一同逮捕。她的竞选发言人回应表示，“我们目前还不知道（警方对斯泰因）有任何指控。”source: https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20240428A073WS003. 康奈尔·韦斯特是著名的哲学家和政治活动家，曾在哈佛、耶鲁和普林斯顿任教，在意识形态上可以说是一位社会主义者。最初韦斯特打算竞逐绿党的候选人资格，但最终因为不喜欢党派政治而宣布独立参选。source: https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_26565319The two big parties jealously guard their duopoly. Since 2000, when Ralph Nader took enough votes in Florida to tip that state for George W. Bush, the parties have tightened the rules around who can get on the ballot for a presidential election. Ms Stein and Mr West are unlikely to qualify in every state (though they could still hurt Mr Biden). Mr Kennedy is different. In polls that include third parties he gets 12% of the vote. That suggests he ought to get enough signatures to put him on the ballot in most states. And if those polls translated into vote share in November, it would be by far the highest third-party score since Ross Perot in 1992.两大党都在小心翼翼地维护这种双头垄断局面。2000年，拉尔夫•纳德（Ralph Nader）在佛罗里达州分走了大量选票，胜利的天枰向乔治·沃克·布什（George Walker Bush）倾斜。自那以后，各党便收紧了关于总统参选人的规定。斯泰因和韦斯特不太可能在每个州都获得选举资格（尽管他们仍有可能威胁到拜登）。而小肯尼迪就不同了。在包括第三党在内的民意调查中，他获得了12%的支持率。这意味着他应该能获得足够支持，参加大部分州的选举。如果这些民调结果转化为11月的选票份额，这将是自1992年罗斯·佩罗（Ross Perot）以来第三方候选者的最高得分。 据统计，纳德2000年大选中在佛罗里达州赢得97488张选票，而现任总统布什在该州仅比当时的民主党候选人戈尔多537张选票。纳德在新罕布什尔州得到2.2万张选票，而布什在该州仅比戈尔多得7211张选票。如果戈尔赢得这两个州中的任何一个，他都会战胜布什当选总统。民主党认为，正是纳德的参选分走了民众本应投给戈尔的选票，才使得戈尔在大选中以极小的差距败给了布什。source: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/hqgj/2008-02/26/content_6483178.htmIt is hard to be precise about whom Mr Kennedy would draw more votes from. The surname suggests he would attract more Democrats, yet Republicans like him more. His environmentalism and vaccine-scepticism mix issues of left and right. His cheerleaders are Silicon Valley bros who think disruption is an intrinsic good. All of which means that a scenario in which Mr Kennedy helps Mr Trump to victory is disturbingly possible.很难确定小肯尼迪会从哪获得更多的选票。从姓氏看，他应该更受民主党的青睐，但实际上他在共和党的人气更高。他的环保主义和疫苗怀疑主义的思想将左翼与右翼的问题交织在一起。他的拥趸是在硅谷工作的兄弟们，他们认为不破不立。所有这一切都意味着小肯尼迪有可能帮助特朗普取得大选胜利，这一情况令人不安。A second big uncertainty that is peculiar to this election concerns Mr Trump’s trials. This week the Supreme Court sent a clear signal, in its 9-0 ruling against the state of Colorado, that it would rather keep out of this election. Mr Trump will therefore be on the ballot everywhere. Over the past couple of years there has been speculation that he might be imprisoned before the election or that, if re-elected, he might even have to govern from a cell. That will not happen. Most of the trials he faces will not be concluded, with appeals, by November 5th. The one case most likely to be decided in time is the most trivial: Mr Trump’s trial for paying Stormy Daniels, a porn star, to keep schtum in 2016 and disguising this as legal expenses.这次选举独有的第二大不确定性与特朗普的案件审理有关。本周，最高法院对科罗拉多州的裁决做出9-0的决定，此举明确表示它宁愿不插手这场选举。因此，特朗普的名字将出现在各地的选票上。在过去几年里，有人猜测他可能会在选举前被送进监狱，也有人猜测如果他再次当选总统，甚至牢房可能变成他的“白宫”，但这种情况不会发生。特朗普提出了上诉，因此他的大部分审判都不会在11月5日之前结案。 不过有一件无关紧要的案件有可能被及时裁决：特朗普因在2016年向色情明星“暴风女丹尼尔斯”（Stormy Daniels）支付封口费，并将其伪装成合法费用而受审。据美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）报道，当地时间3月4日，美国联邦最高法院裁定，美国各州无权根据宪法第十四修正案第三条“叛乱条款”取消候选人竞选联邦公职的资格，推翻了科罗拉多州禁止前总统特朗普参加该州初选的裁决。美媒称，最高法院的裁决意味着，美国其他州都不能援引“叛乱条款”取消特朗普参加2024年美国总统选举初选。这是特朗普取得的一次“重大胜利”，消除了他参加2024年美国总统大选的众多法律障碍之一。source: https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_26559452That is not the same as saying the trials are irrelevant. In our Economist/YouGov polls, a third of Republican voters say being “a criminal” is not a desirable trait in a candidate. Negative partisanship—the conviction that whatever your own side does, the other lot are worse—means that a huge majority of those who voted for Mr Trump before will do so again. But once the trial over his role in the riot of January 6th 2021 begins, there will be regular reminders of how his first term ended, just as undecided voters are weighing whether to give him another one. Yes, most Republican voters will find a way to rationalise the charges against Mr Trump. But the trials are still a drag on him.但这并不意味着这些审判无足轻重。根据《经济学人》/尤格夫的民调数据，三分之一的共和党选民表示，“罪犯”不是候选人应有的标签。消极的党派之争——坚信无论你方阵营做了什么，另一方总会表现得更糟——意味着绝大多数曾经为特朗普投票的人会再次做出这样的选择。然而，就在迟疑观望的选民们思考是否助力特朗普再度入主白宫之时，一旦法院开始裁定他是否煽动了2021年1月6日的骚乱（1·6美国国会暴乱），这就会时常提醒选民们特朗普第一个任期的结局。诚然，大多数共和党选民会找到一种方式去为特朗普所面临的指控找到合理解释。但这些审判仍然会对他产生负面影响。The third area of uncertainty is the candidates’ age. Mr Biden and Mr Trump will be the oldest and second-oldest nominees on record, making the odds of what is politely called a “health event” higher than usual. On the Republican side, Mr Trump has no political heir. He is installing his campaign manager as the party’s chief operating officer and his daughter-in-law as its co-chair. That is a brittle kind of strength. He so dominates the party that there would be chaos if he were incapacitated.第三个不确定因素是候选人的年龄。拜登和特朗普将是有史以来年龄最大和第二大的提名者，这使得“健康门”发生的概率比往常更高。在共和党内，特朗普没有政治继任者。他任命自己的高级竞选顾问担任该党首席运营官，自己的儿媳担任党内联合主席。但这种力量脆而不坚。特朗普在党内独揽大权，一旦他有什么闪失，党内就会乱作一团。There is, by contrast, a debate among Democrats about whether Mr Biden is capable of winning a campaign because of his age. His poll numbers remain oddly low given the strength of the economy. The White House’s answer is that the polls are wrong and that the president’s fortunes will turn round when more voters start paying attention. Maybe. But 85% of Americans and 70% of Democrats think he is too old to serve another term. That is unlikely to change.相比之下，民主党内部就高龄拜登是否有能力赢得竞选展开了辩论。考虑到经济的强劲势头，他的民调数字却出奇地低。白宫对此回应道，民意调查是错误的，当更多选民开始关注时，总统的命运就会出现转机。或许吧。但85%的美国人和70%的民主党人认为他太老了，不适合连任。这一观念不太可能改变。If he is still behind in swing-state polls before the party’s nominee is crowned at the convention in August, the main argument for Mr Biden—that he is the best defence against a second Trump term—will be hard to sustain. Replacing him then would be risky and could be chaotic. Mr Biden would have to stand aside voluntarily, which seems unlikely. Kamala Harris, the vice-president and likely successor, could be an even weaker candidate.如果在8月份的党代会上获得党内提名之前，拜登仍然在摇摆州的民调中落后，那么他获得支持的主要原因——他是阻止特朗普连任的最佳人选——将很难站得住脚。届时替换他将会有风险，而且可能会出现混乱局面。拜登必须主动让位，但这似乎不太可能。有继任希望的副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯（Kamala Harris）若是作为候选人，可能在影响力方面更羸弱。One way around that problem would be for Democrats to hold a talent contest at the convention. The risk is that the candidates would be dragged to the left to please an audience of activists. An alternative would be for party grandees to settle on a young governor such as Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan, or a charismatic speaker like Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia. They would then have two months to campaign, in a blizzard of media attention, while Mr Trump is on trial over January 6th.解决这个问题的一个办法是让民主党人在大会上举办一场人才大赛。这么做的风险在于，候选人可能会被拖向左翼，以取悦激进分子。另一种选择是由党内政要们选择一位年轻的州长，如密歇根州的格雷琴·惠特默（Gretchen Whitmer），或者一位魅力四射的演讲者，如佐治亚州的参议员拉斐尔·沃诺克（Raphael Warnock）。然后，他们将有两个月的时间在铺天盖地的媒体关注中竞选，而特朗普将因1·6美国国会暴乱而受到审判。It may seem inevitable that the election of 2024 will be between Mr Biden and Mr Trump. But given the oddities specific to this contest, there is more uncertainty than you might think.2024年美国总统大选角逐似乎势必在拜登和特朗普之间展开。但考虑到这次竞选的特殊之处，不确定性远超你的想象。Mai，男，经济学博士，世界那么大，我想活得久一点
本期感想：
Forest，爱树的人，精神小花园持续耕耘中
不知道大家怎么想，美国大选引人关注已经很久了，所以现在这个不早不晚的时期，感觉是最让人觉得乏味的时期。
本文有许多细节，但是也许我们距离它多少有点遥远，所以并不觉得这些细节有多么有用，或者说对这个国家究竟是有多大的影响。虽然这也许也可能是我们对此不够敏感，所以并不特别理解如何可以利用蝴蝶的翅膀去达到理想的干扰作用。或者也可能是大选最终还有阵子，假如现在又不能完全不写这个题目，所以报纸要用细节来拖拉拖拉时间，这也是很可以理解的。
最核心的问题，反正还是矛盾与撕裂，这也讲了很久了。
现实的问题不过就是，拜登和川普，为什么难分伯仲呢？
看看拜登在任的经济政策，究竟“亮眼”与否，其国人显然是莫衷一是。拨去迷雾，拜登经济学的凯恩斯经济学气味浓厚，政府下场成为经济活动者，西方经济学教材中几乎不见的产业政策正在大展身手；用通胀去换就业也并不新鲜，只是就业的增加当然只是部分人群的事情，而通货膨胀更关乎众人“福祉”，所以利益相关者难免不会各执一词。
《芯片与科学法案》和《通胀削减法案》 这种通过攘外来安内究竟是否长远有利于这个国家，并不清楚，不过倒算是分歧不大吧，所以此处不提。
拜登注重基础设施的建设，这可见于2021年11月的《基础设施投资和就业法案》。基础设施对一个国家的发展来说当然是很重要的，但是这也是植树在前享用在后，所以又难免不产生各持己见之批短期和看长期的分野。
更有甚者，比如拜登在2021年力推的《重建美好未来》计划，涉及普及学前教育、增加家庭补贴、全面改革医疗保，以及提高税收，这可就更容易导致两方都不得不要想坚壁清野了。这个法案看起来挺惠民的，为什么这么两方的口味如此难调和呢？
如此地难以谐和，分明是撕裂的两方均不能跨越同理心之墙。
如何能够放下呢？
比如可能需要放下自我的执念，先去倾听对方的故事。
可是，如果背后影响执念的原来是并无人性的资本和其他深不可越的鸿沟，这样理想的“可能”大抵应该是不可能的吧？
不然，来日方长，我们且往后看吧。
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