美国经济能否笑到最后？ | 经济学人社论
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思维导图：
Charlie，剃刀边缘无比锋利
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Leaders | Pumped up
经济学人社论 | 振奋人心
英文部分选自经济学人20240316期社论版块
Leaders | Pumped up
经济学人社论 | 振奋人心
America’s extraordinary economy keeps defying the pessimists
美国经济表现出众，悲观主义者节节败退
Both Donald Trump and Joe Biden have ideas that endanger it
然而特朗普和拜登的计划都会将美国经济置于险境
You have to marvel at America’s economy. Not long ago it was widely thought to be on the brink of recession. Instead it ended 2023 nearly 3% larger than 12 months earlier, having enjoyed one of the boomier years of the century so far. And it continues to defy expectations. At the start of this year, economists had been forecasting annualised growth in the first quarter of 1%; that prediction has since doubled. The labour market is in rude health, too. The unemployment rate has been below 4% for 25 consecutive months, the longest such spell in over 50 years. No wonder Uncle Sam is putting the rest of the world to shame. Since the end of 2019 the economy has grown by nearly 8% in real terms, more than twice as fast as the euro zone’s and ten times as quickly as Japan’s. Britain’s has barely grown at all.
美国经济让人不得不啧啧称奇。不久前，人们还普遍认为美国经济处于衰退边缘。然而其2023年的年经济增幅直逼3%，是本世纪迄今为止经济发展相对蓬勃的一年。而且，它的表现持续超越预期。今年年初，经济学家曾预测第一季度的年化增长率为1%，而现在这一预测数值已经翻了一番。劳动力市场也十分强劲。失业率已连续25个月低于4%，是50多年来持续时间最长的一次。难怪这位“山姆大叔”会让其他各国自惭形秽。自2019年年底以来，美国经济实际增长率近8%，是欧元区的两倍多，是日本的十倍。英国经济则几乎停滞不前。
注释：
Uncle Sam (which has the same initials as United States) is a common national personification of the federal government of the United States or the country in general.
America’s expansion is all the more striking when you consider the many things that could have killed it. As the Federal Reserve has fought inflation the economy has endured the sharpest rise in interest rates since Jimmy Carter was in the White House. The covid-19 pandemic, an intensifying trade war with China and the fight against climate change have together reshaped supply chains, labour markets and consumer preferences. Wars in Ukraine and Gaza have aggravated geopolitical tensions and worsened the strains on the global trading system.
如果考虑到本来有许多因素可能会扼杀美国经济，那么它的增长就更让人震惊了。因美联储一直在抗击通胀，美国经济经历了自吉米·卡特入主白宫以来最大幅度的利率上调。新冠疫情肆虐，贸易战不断升级，加上应对气候变化，三者共同重塑了供应链、劳动力市场和消费者偏好。乌克兰和加沙地区的战争加剧了地缘政治紧张局势，也让全球贸易体系压力倍增。
注释：
吉米·卡特在1976年他代表美国民主党当选第39任美国总统。
Can America’s remarkable strength persist? Threats to growth still hang over the economy. The longer interest rates stay high, for instance, the more damage they could do. Although inflation has fallen, it remains sticky above the Fed’s 2% target, meaning that the Fed may be unable to fulfil investors’ hopes for interest-rate cuts starting in June. Geopolitical tensions, meanwhile, look likely to spur economic fragmentation. Yet the biggest threat of all stems from November’s presidential election. Neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump seems likely to nurture the economic expansion should they return to the White House. Instead, their plans would endanger it.
美国这般惊人的实力能否持续？层层阴云依然笼罩着经济增长的前景。例如，利率居高不下的时间越长，它所带来的危害就可能越大。尽管通胀已经有所下降，但仍长期高于美联储所设定的2%的目标，投资人期待6月开始降息的预期恐怕要落空了。与此同时，地缘政治局势紧张，可能会引发经济分裂。不过，今年11月的总统大选才是最大的威胁。无论是拜登连任还是特朗普重返白宫，似乎都无法促进经济发展；相反，他们的计划可能会置美国经济于危险境地。
To understand this, consider the reasons for the economy’s extraordinary performance. A key plank was generous pandemic stimulus, which at 26% of gdp was more than double the rich-world average. This largesse fuelled inflation but also ensured fast growth: consumers have yet to spend all the cash they received in “stimmy” cheques. Even as the covid crisis passed, the government continued to borrow away. The underlying deficit over the past year was nearly 8% of gdp. That supported demand even as rates went up.
想想美国经济的表现缘何如此卓越，就能明白这一点了。一个关键因素是，美国在疫情期间施行了大手笔的财政刺激计划，其金额相当于GDP的26%，比富裕国家的平均水平高出一倍有余。这一慷慨相助之举给通胀煽风点火，但也保障了经济快速增长：消费者从“大撒币”中得到的现金至今都还没有花完。疫情危机不再，但政府仍在继续借债。美国去年的基本赤字接近GDP的8%。即使利率上升，需求也屹立不倒。
注释：
Stimmy is a slang term that has taken hold to refer to the economic stimulus payments made to Americans by the U.S. government as part of a planned coronavirus relief package.
Strong demand has been met by growing supply. America has 4% more workers than it did at the end of 2019, thanks in part to rising workforce participation, but mainly owing to higher immigration. The foreign-born population is up by 4.4m, a figure which may undercount those who arrived illegally. And the expanding workforce is being put to productive use. America’s flexible labour market has almost certainly made it easier for the economy to adapt fast to a changing world.
不断增长的供应满足了强劲的需求。美国劳动力数量比2019年底增加了4%，这与不断上升的劳动力参与率有关，但主要因为移民人数增加。外国出生人口增加了440万，这可能还少算了非法入境者的人数。不断扩充的劳动力队伍加入生产阵队。几乎可以肯定的是，在这个充满变数的世界，美国劳动力市场的灵活性大大增强了它的经济适应能力。
Other long-standing strengths have made America enviably placed to cope with geopolitical tumult. Its vast internal market encourages innovation and means it depends less on foreign trade than smaller rich economies do. Because the shale boom of the 2010s made America a net energy exporter, it has in aggregate benefited rather than suffered from the high energy prices that hit the wallets of Europeans.
其他长期存在的优势使得美国的地位得天独厚，能有效应对地缘政治动荡。美国国内市场广阔，创新氛围良好，因此与小型富裕经济体相比，美国对外贸的依赖程度更低。2010年代的页岩气热潮使美国成为能源净出口大国，因而从总体上来看，高涨的能源价格让欧洲人钱包缩水，但它并未给美国带来损失，反而使其从中受益。
The trouble is that each of the ingredients for growth can no longer be relied upon. It may be tempting for politicians to extrapolate from America’s recent success and juice the economy with further stimulus. But that is becoming unsustainable. Official forecasts show that America will this year spend more on debt interest than national defence. More borrowing risks building up financial perils in the future.
但问题在于，上述每个增长要素都将不再可靠。政客们可能不自禁地想从美国近期的成功中推断出规律，从而进一步刺激经济增长。然而，这样的趋势渐渐难以为继。官方预测数据显示，美国今年的债务利息支出将超过国防支出。更多借贷恐怕会加重此后的金融风险。
At the same time, both Mr Trump and Mr Biden harbour populist and protectionist instincts that will only harm America’s growth potential. The sugar-rush of stimulus helped mask the damaging effects of such policies during each president’s first term. This time, however, the damage will not be disguised.
与此同时，特朗普和拜登都有民粹主义和保护主义本能，这只会削弱美国的增长潜力。在两位总统的首个任期内，刺激计划带来的短暂繁荣掩盖了此种政策的破坏性影响。但这一次，损害将无处遁形。
Mr Trump poses the graver threat. He has entertained a blanket 10% tariff on imports, which some of his advisers see as a mere starting-point. That would triple America’s existing levies on goods imports, worsen inflation and raise the cost of imported parts for manufacturers. At the same time, Mr Trump has promised the mass deportation of illegal immigrants. This goes well beyond trying to secure the border against new unauthorised entrants—a reasonable goal—and poses a risk to the labour supply: in 2021 America’s 10.5m irregular migrants made up an estimated 5% of its workforce.
特朗普还带来了更严重的威胁。他想要对进口商品全面征收10%的关税，而他的几位顾问认为，这仅仅是一个起点。这将使美国现有的商品进口税增加两倍，通货膨胀加剧，制造商进口零部件的成本也将上升。同时，特朗普承诺将大规模驱逐非法移民。杜绝更多非法移民入境以保障边境安全是一个合理目标。但他的做法远超目标范畴，并将对劳动力供应构成威胁：2021年，美国有1050万非法移民，约占劳动力总数的5%。
A Trump presidency would also threaten the Fed’s independence. Mr Trump says he would not reappoint its chairman, Jerome Powell, whose term expires in 2026, and whom he often criticised when in office. A pliant Fedat a time of big deficits—which Mr Trump might increase with more tax cuts—could threaten America’s macroeconomic stability.
特朗普当选总统也将威胁到美联储的独立性。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）将于2026年任期届满。特朗普表示，如果重返白宫，他将不再任命鲍威尔；他此前在任时就经常批评鲍威尔。当出现巨额赤字（特朗普可能会采取更多减税措施，导致赤字增加）时，如果美联储任凭摆布，美国宏观经济的稳定性可能会因此受损。
A second Biden term promises nothing as potentially catastrophic.Mr Biden has let the Fed get on with fighting inflation, and wants to raise taxes to reduce deficits. Yet he is also an economic nationalist. His State of the Union address on March 7th was littered with protectionist promises that the government would “Buy American”, and statist ideas about controlling the price of everything from housing to Snickers bars.
拜登的第二个任期不会带来特朗普那样潜在的灾难性后果。拜登让美联储继续对抗通胀，并希望通过增税来减少赤字。然而，他也是一名经济民族主义者。他在3月7日发表的国情咨文中充斥着政府将“购买美国货”的保护主义承诺，以及控制从住房到士力架等所有价格的国家主义思想。
Muscle memory
肌肉记忆
Both Mr Biden and Mr Trump harbour a misplaced nostalgia for the 1950s and ’60s, and justify their policies by painting today’s economy as weaker than it is. Mr Trump thinks trade and immigration have made the country poorer; Mr Biden is deeply distrustful of big business. And where they do acknowledge America’s strengths, both men attribute it to their own misguided interventionism.In fact, they are chipping away at the free markets which are the ultimate source of the country’s wealth.
拜登和特朗普都对上世纪50年代和60年代怀有一种错位的怀旧之情，他们对当今的经济形势添油加醋，以此来为自己的政策辩护。特朗普认为，贸易和移民让美国的钱包越来越瘪；拜登则十分猜忌大企业。他们也承认美国具有优势，但两人都将其归因于自己那弄巧成拙的干预主义。事实上，他们正在逐步削弱的自由市场才是国家财富的根本来源。
The truth is America has thrived as its companies and workers have innovated and adapted to a rapidly changing world. If the next president does not recognise that, America’s pumped-up economy will eventually deflate.
正是因为美国公司和工人不断创新并适应这瞬息万变的世界，美国才可以蓬勃发展。如果下一任总统不能认识到这一点，那么美国高涨的经济终将萎缩。
Trista，女，暴富不是梦想，是未来的现实
Jessie，女，翻译界林黛玉，想被人叫大佬
Yuqing，女，理想主义体验派，经济学人读者
UU，保持低调
Shulin，时间是个好东西
Charlie，剃刀边缘无比锋利
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观点|评论|思考
本期感想
VeRy，男，电气民工，经济学人资浅爱好者
也许，我们悄悄地说，这些所谓的经济增长和事实无关呢？毛子今年的经济增速十分感人，但是考虑到昨晚的情况，所以我们开始怀疑，这种统计值真的具有重大意义吗？
我们的感受往往具有局限性，于是我们采用抽样统计的方法来确定某一些事，甚至于以此来建立某些学科的科学性。当然像我这样的无名小辈，无知者而言，丝毫没有去质疑此类方法的科学性，但如果我的身份仅仅是一名验证者，或者质检员，那以我的观察，这种方法对于真相的偏离是很大的，无论正负。
但是有一种观点，认为当我们当下没有更好的方法时，这就是最优的。也是真的只是无奈之举，或者是一种逐渐逼近真理的办法，但仅据此来决定某些重大事件，或许有些草率和鲁莽。
更重大的偏离在于，我们以其以外的系统或者方式，至少是打着这类的旗帜，来从事一些事件。但用的却是另一个系统（我们在极力撇清的）方法进行分析和实施，这种伟大的落差感和几乎被蒙住嘴巴的压抑感，让我们陷入了一种疯狂之中，我们甚至连起码的自圆其说都做不到。
当我们一切的伟大仅建立在对于一切的掌控和重新分配之上时，我们的伟大缺乏了自尊，于是也没有真正意义上的自信，有的只是一种被权力刻画出来的虚假的自信和自尊。有的只有嘲笑——自嘲，和无奈。
也许历史（我希望有生之年可见）可以揭开真相的一部分，或者揭示出真相的逻辑脉络，让我带着清醒和明白归入黄土。
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