石油交易大师乔·拜登 | 经济学人财经
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思维导图作者：
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Finance and economics | Buttonwood
财经| 梧桐树专栏
Finance and economics | Buttonwood
财经版块｜梧桐树专栏
Joe Biden, master oil trader
乔·拜登，石油交易大师
The president has turned volatility into profit
总统先生化凶为吉
He has ahigh-stakes job. War and natural disasters keep him on his toes. He is often on a plane to far-flung places, travelling to negotiate with local leaders. He has the best intelligence money can buy. And as November’s election nears, he will spend lots of time looking at lines on charts. The American president and swashbuckling oil traders, it turns out, have a lot in common.
他的工作事关重大。战争和自然灾害使其保持警觉。他经常飞去偏远地方与当地领导人谈判。他拥有钱能买得到的最好情报。随着11月大选迫近，他将花费大把时间盯着图表上的线条走向。事实证明，美国总统与那些经历传奇的石油交易员颇有相同之处。
注释：
1，intelligence：
（尤指关于敌国的）情报；情报人员secret information that is collected, for example about a foreign country, especially one that is an enemy; the people that collect this information
2，swashbuckling
adj. (especially of films/movies 尤指电影) set in the past and full of action, adventure, fighting with swords, etc. 表现古代惊险打斗的；有传奇历险情节的
Indeed, Joe Biden also seems to have a knack for the oil trade. Two years ago his administration initiated the largest ever sell-off from America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (spr), an emergency store of crude oil, to counteract price surges caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine. Back then, dwindling stocks left observers twitchy. What if there was another shock to the system? So far, however, Mr Biden has got away with the gamble. He is now refilling America’s tanks, and began a new round of bidding on May 7th. Although inflation and war have marked his presidency, domestic fuel prices have been relatively stable and American production high.
事实上，乔·拜登似乎也确实掌握了石油交易的诀窍。两年前，拜登政府史无前例地大规模抛售美国原油应急储备——战略石油储备（Strategic Petroleum Reserve, SPR），以抵消俄乌战争引发的能源价格飙升。彼时，原油库存的减少令观察人士倍感焦虑。要是系统再遭冲击，该怎么办呢？然而，至少到现在为止，拜登赌赢了。如今他正在补充美国战略石油储备，并于5月7日再次下注。尽管通货膨胀和战争成为了拜登总统任期的主题，但在他任上，美国国内燃料价格相对稳定，石油产量也很高。
拓展阅读：
“美国战略石油储备的特点及运行机制” https://www.cfpci.org.cn/P/497.html
Like all good traders, Mr Biden has turned volatility into profit. In 2022, when he released 180m barrels of crude—or one-third of America’s stockpile—he sold at an average of $95 a barrel. In July last year, when the West Texas Intermediate (wti) benchmark was at $67 a barrel, he began to refill the reserve. The president has replaced about one-fifth of what he sold, posting a profit of $582m, and has managed to time the market to perfection.
像所有优秀的石油交易员一样，拜登将市场波动转化为了利润。2022年，他以平均每桶95美元的价格狂抛1.8亿桶石油（相当于美国石油储备的三分之一）。去年7月份，当西德克萨斯中间基原油（West Texas Intermediate，简称WTI）的基准价格为每桶67美元时，他开始补充储备。截至目前，拜登已补回售出石油总量的五分之一，获利5.82亿美元，对市场时机的把握堪称完美。
注释： 西得克萨斯中间基原油（英语：West Texas Intermediate，简称WTI）是国际石油市场的一种基准价格，也是纽约商品交易所石油期货合同的标的物。所有在美国生产或销往美国的原油，在计价时都以轻质低硫的WTI作为基准油。在新闻报道里，和北海布伦特原油价格一样，WTI的价格常常被做为反映当前世界石油市场的参考价格。其他重要的世界石油市场价格还包括迪拜原油价格和石油输出国组织（OPEC）的一揽子参考价格。
Treasury officials estimate that Mr Biden’s early sales knocked about $0.40 from the price of a gallon of petrol. That was a relief for consumers (and probably boosted his party’s performance in midterm elections). Yet price falls may hurt domestic producers, and discourage investment in new production. When supply is scarce, high prices push producers to spend on new facilities. Releasing petroleum reserves masks this important price signal. Whereas thespr in the past has been used to stabilise the market only in times of emergency, Mr Biden took a more activist approach. When the president sold the reserves, he promised to buy back some of the barrels if prices fell to $67-72—well above the spr’s historical purchase price—which in effect made the government a buyer of last resort.
据财政部官员估计，拜登的及时出手使得每加仑汽油的价格降低了0.4美元，安抚了消费者（很可能也提升了民主党在中期选举的表现）。然而价格下跌也许会损害国内生产商的利益，阻碍他们增产。当供不应求时，高企的价格会促使生产商投资于新的开采设施。释放石油储备掩盖了这一重要的价格信号。过去，只有在紧急情况下政府才会动用石油储备稳定市场。拜登则选择主动出击。在出售石油储备时，拜登承诺，如果油价跌至每桶67-72美元（远高于石油储备的历史购买价），他将回购部分石油。此举让政府成为了事实上的最终购买人。
Next he rewrote rules to allow the government to offer producers forward contracts at fixed prices. McDonald’s, a fast-food chain, stabilises chicken-nugget prices in a similar way. Producers give up the chance of more money if prices rise by the time of delivery, but know they will make no less than the contract guarantees. Since October Mr Biden has offered a rolling option to enter into forward contracts at a strike price of $79, for up to 3m barrels a month. This is a drop in the barrel in a global market that clears 100m of them a day. But the standing offer to buy at such a price may have encouraged domestic producers to keep drilling.
接下来，他改写了规则，允许政府以固定价格向生产商提供远期合约。快餐连锁品牌麦当劳也用类似的方式稳定鸡块的价格。这意味着生产商放弃了潜在的更高利润（即使交货时价格上涨，他们也只能按合同价格交货），但选择了有合同保障的“稳稳的幸福”。自 10 月以来，拜登提出了滚动期权，以 79 美元的执行价格签订远期合约，每月最多 300 万桶。这在每天交易1亿桶原油的全球市场上只是沧海一粟，但能够以这样的价格签订远期合约可能会鼓励国内生产商继续钻探。
注释：
远期合约：交易双方约定在未来的某一确定时间，以确定的价格买卖一定数量的某种
金融资产的合约。
Moreover, in volatile times, producers usually underinvest and leave profits on the table, rather than risk oversupply and painful losses. For this reason, petrol prices often rise faster than they fall. Mr Biden hopes that by reducing the risk that prices tumble, he will spur domestic shalemen to invest and this will pull prices into his target range. Indeed, planned investment more than tripled in the months after the announcement of forward contracts, even though prices were falling at the time.
此外，市场波动时期，生厂商通常会选择减少再投资，将利润捏在手里，以免市场上供过于求，自己损失惨重。因此汽油价格往往涨得比跌得快。拜登希望通过降低价格暴跌的风险，刺激国内石油生产商投资，从而将价格拉入目标范围。事实上，远期合约宣布后的几个月内，尽管价格仍在下跌，但是计划投资额增加了两倍多。
Oil traders might resent Mr Biden’s foray into their line of work, since they rely on volatile prices to turn a buck. His tactics will also be hard for them to replicate. The federal government is a credible customer with a long horizon. Thespr’s caverns have capacity for 714m barrels and make oil cheap to store. Even after the drawdown in 2022, America’s reserves comfortably exceeded the standard 90 days of import cover. Mr Biden is in no hurry to refill the reserves, and can wait until prices fall to his floor.
石油交易员利用市场波动赚取利润，因此可能会对拜登介入他们行当而感到不满。他们也难以复制拜登的策略。对于生产商来说，联邦政府是具有长远眼光的可靠客户。SPR能贮存7.14亿桶石油，且贮存成本很低。即便2022年之后储备有所减少，美国的石油储备也轻松超过了90个标准日的进口需求。因此，拜登并不急于补充储备，而是选择坐等价格跌到他设置的下限。
Yet what looks like skill can be luck, as star traders sometimes discover. Mr Biden’s strategy has been assisted by favourable conditions. Although Russia faces an array of sanctions on its energy exports, its oil firms have been able to keep selling their stuff. On top of this, global demand for crude has been sluggish. Both factors prompted prices to fall from their highs of 2022. Meanwhile, production cuts byopec, an oil cartel, have kept prices from falling too low, which could have tested Mr Biden’s floor on prices. The president’s success comes with a wider warning: past success is no guarantee of future returns.
然而正如某些明星交易员所发现的那样，一些看似精彩的操作可能纯粹是走了狗屎运。拜登的策略能够见效，得益于许多有利条件的助攻。尽管俄罗斯的能源出口遭受着一系列制裁，但其石油公司一直都不愁没有客户。此外，全球原油需求持续低迷。这两个因素促使石油价格从2022年的高点一路回落。与此同时，石油卡特尔OPEC减产，导致价格不会太低，考验着拜登设置的价格底线。拜登的成功其实伴随着一个更广泛的警告: 昔日的辉煌不能保证未来的成功。
注释
卡特尔：垄断联盟，OPEC由世界主要产油国构成，包括沙特，卡塔尔等。
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