全球瞩目，日本告别负利率时代 | 经济学人财经
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Finance and economics | Interesting times
经济学人财经|有趣的时代
英文部分选自经济学人20240323期财经板块
Finance and economics | Interesting times
经济学人财经|有趣的时代
Japan ends the world’s greatest monetary-policy experiment
日本结束了世界上最激进的货币宽松实验
For the first time in 17 years, officials raise interest rates
央行官员17年来首次加息
On march 19thofficials at the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced that, with sustainable inflation of 2% “in sight”, they would scrap a suite of measures instituted to pull the economy out of its deflationary doldrums—marking the end of a radical experiment. The bank raised its interest-rate target on overnight loans for the first time since 2007, from between minus 0.1% and zero to between zero and 0.1%, becoming the last central bank to scrap its negative-interest-rate policy. It will also stop buying exchange-traded funds and abolish its yield-curve-control framework, a tool to cap long-term bond yields. Even so, the BOJ stressed that its stance would remain accommodative: the withdrawal of its most unconventional policies does not augur the beginning of a tightening cycle.
3月19日，日本央行（BOJ）宣布，由于通胀稳定在2%的目标“有望实现”，日本将废除一系列旨在帮助经济摆脱长期通缩的措施，标志着其“激进的货币宽松实验”宣告终结。自2007年以来，日本央行首次提高了隔夜贷款的目标利率，将其从-0.1%-0%调整到0%-0.1%，成为最后一个取消负利率政策的中央银行。日本还将停止购买交易所交易基金，并取消收益率曲线控制政策（YCC）（此前被用来限制长期债券收益率）。尽管如此，日本央行仍强调将继续保持宽松立场：取消这些非常规政策并不意味着货币紧缩周期即将开始。
注释：
隔夜利率（Overnight Rate）是指当天起息第二天归还的银行同业拆放贷款的利率
拓展阅读：
1.《光明日报：久病不能用猛药，利率“转正”，日本经济仍需“温和疗愈”》
https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1794259849280862234&wfr=spider&for=pc
2.《财联社：日本时隔 17 年首次加息！全球“负利率时代”彻底落幕》
https://www.myzaker.com/article/65f916cdb15ec02b802003dc
3.EIU: Bank of Japan to keep accommodative policy after negative rate exit
https://www.eiu.com/n/bank-of-japan-to-keep-accommodative-policy-after-negative-rate-exit/
This shift reflects changes in the underlying condition of the Japanese economy.Inflation has been above the bank’s 2% target for 22 months. Recent annual negotiations between trade unions and large companies suggest wage growth of more than 5% for the first time in 33 years. “The BOJ has confirmed what many people have been suspecting: the Japanese economy has changed, it has gotten out of deflation,” says Hoshi Takeo of the University of Tokyo. That hardly means Japan is booming—consumption is weak and growth is anaemic. But the economy no longer requires an entire armoury of policies designed to raise inflation. When Ueda Kazuo, the BOJ’s governor, was asked what he would call his new framework, he said it did not require a special name. It was “normal” monetary policy.
央行政策的转变反映了日本经济基本面的变化。通货膨胀已经连续22个月超过了央行2%的目标。近期工会和大公司之间进行的年度工资谈判显示，工资增长率即将在33年内首次突破5%。东京大学的星岳雄（Hoshi Takeo）表示：“许多人认为日本经济已经摆脱了通缩，而央行政策的转变证明了这一点。”当然，这并不意味着其经济正在蓬勃发展：日本的消费仍然疲软，增长依旧缓慢。但是，日本已不再需要一整套旨在拉高通胀的政策来提振经济。在被问及如何称呼自己的新框架时，日本银行行长植田和男（Ueda Kazuo）表示不需要什么特别的命名，这就是“正常”的货币政策。
Japan’s economy slid into deflation in the 1990s, following the bursting of an asset bubble and the failure of several financial institutions. TheBOJ began trying new tools, cautiously at first. Although in 1999 the bank cut interest rates to zero, it raised them the next year, only to see prices fall again (one of two board members opposed to the decision at the time was Mr Ueda). The BOJ then went further, becoming the first post-war central bank to implement quantitative easing—the buying of bonds with newly created money—in 2001.
20世纪90年代，随着资产泡沫破灭，几大金融机构倒闭，日本经济陷入通缩。央行开始谨慎地尝试新的政策工具。1999年，央行施行了0利率政策，但第二年又转向加息，结果价格水平再次下降（当时董事会有两名成员反对加息决定，其中一人正是现任行长植田和男）。于是2001年，央行转向了更加激进的货币政策，开动印钞机吃进债券，成为了二战后第一家实行量化宽松的央行。
Yet it did not fully embrace the wild side of monetary policy until the arrival of Kuroda Haruhiko as governor in 2013. Backed by then-prime minister Abe Shinzo, Mr Kuroda embarked on a programme of vast monetary easing, vowing to unleasha “bazooka” of stimulus. The bank adopted a 2% inflation target and began “quantitative and qualitative easing”, which saw enormous government-bond purchases coupled with aggressive forward guidance (promises to keep policy loose). In 2016 the bank set its key overnight rate at minus 0.1%, meaning that commercial banks were in effect charged for depositing with it, and then implemented yield-curve control in order to restrain longer-term interest rates, too. Although inflation picked up a bit, it never consistently reached the central bank’s target during Mr Kuroda’s term, which ended nearly a year ago.
不过，一直到黑田东彦（Kuroda Haruhiko）于2013年就任央行行长，日本才完全拥抱货币政策狂野的一面。在时任首相安倍晋三（Abe Shinzo）的支持下，黑田东彦开始实施大规模货币宽松计划，誓要释放出刺激经济的“火箭筒”。日本央行采用了2%的通胀目标，开始实施“量化和质化的货币宽松政策”，即大量买入政府债券，并发出激进的前瞻指引（承诺继续维持货币宽松政策）。2016年，日本央行将关键的隔夜利率设定为负0.1%（这意味着商业银行在央行存款还要倒贴利息），并祭出收益率曲线控制政策来抑制长期利率。虽然通胀率略有回升，但直到2023年黑田东彦卸任为止，通胀率从未持续达到央行的目标。
Officials are now confident that inflation has at last become embedded. Supply-chain snags and rising import costs pushed up inflation at first, but price rises have since become widespread.GDP growth figures for the last quarter of 2023 were recently revised into positive territory owing to an uptick in capital expenditure.
现在，官员们确信通胀终于稳固下来。起初，供应链受阻和进口成本上升推高了通胀，但此后物价上涨已十分普遍。由于资本支出增加，2023年第四季度GDP在经过修正后实现了正增长。
The missing piece of the puzzle had beenwages. Last year annual wage negotiations produced gains of 3.8%, the highest in three decades. But wage growth still trailed inflation, leaving real incomes falling. Then came last week’s blockbuster numbers. They included a big boost to the so-called base-up portion of Japanese wages, which is not linked to seniority. A sustained period of rising prices has emboldened unions to push forcefully for higher pay; Japan’s shrinking labour force is also forcing firms to compete for talent. Policymakers “have been very, very patient, deliberately waiting for the right timing”, says Nakaso Hiroshi, a former BOJ deputy governor. “And now the time is right.”
先前一直缺失的最后一块拼图——工资如今也已就位。去年，年度工资谈判的结果为涨薪3.8%，为近30年来最高值。但是工资仍然没有跑赢通胀，导致实际收入下降。不过，上周的谈判结果令人振奋，日本工资中与工龄无关的基础薪资部分大幅提高。持续的价格上涨使得工会信心十足地强烈要求涨薪。日本劳动力人口的萎缩也迫使公司加入抢夺人才大战。政策制定者“一直非常、非常有耐心，谨慎地等待合适时机，”前日本央行副行长中曾宏（Nakaso Hiroshi）说到，“现在时机成熟了。”
For such a momentous decision, the short-term impact will be limited. TheBOJ had hinted at its intentions, meaning markets priced in the move, and had loosened its yield cap last year. The yen depreciated slightly against the dollar following the announcement. Long-term yields have settled at 0.7% to 0.8%, below the scrapped 1% reference point. Although some local investors may bring funds home as a consequence of the policy shift, global capital flows are unlikely to move drastically since rates in Japan will still be low by international standards, notes Kiuchi Takahide of Nomura Research Institute, a research outfit. Nor will the change to the policy rate have a big effect: under the BOJ’s old framework, there were three tiers of accounts, and the share of funds held in those subject to negative rates was minimal.
这样决定十分重大，但其短期影响将是有限的。日本央行先前已放出风来，这意味着市场价格已根据此预期进行了调整，并且央行在去年就放宽了收益率上限。消息公布后，日元兑美元小幅贬值。长期收益率稳定在0.7%到0.8%之间，低于YCC的1%参考点。日本野村综合研究所（Nomura Research Institute）的木内登英（Kiuchi Takahide）指出，虽然一些本地投资者可能会因为政策转变而将资金带回日本，但是全球资本流动不太可能出现大幅波动，因为日本的利率水平仍低于国际标准。政策利率的变化也不会产生太大影响：日本央行的旧框架实行三级利率体系，而负利率账户中持有的资金比例很小。
注释：日本央行的负利率和三层利率体系
https://xueqiu.com/7455226218/64356441
The question is where theBOJ goes from here. Officials have been careful to signal they are not embarking on a tightening cycle. Last month Uchida Shinichi, a deputy governor, said there would not be a rapid series of rate rises. Mr Ueda offered few clues about where he suspects rates will settle; most economists reckon they will not exceed 0.5%. The BOJ will also continue to buy “broadly the same amount” of government bonds to control long-term rates. Normalisation of its own balance-sheet will be a gradual process. “The BOJ has left a huge footprint on the market,” says Kato Izuru of Totan Research, a think-tank. “They want to reduce that footprint, but it cannot be reduced suddenly.”
问题在于日本央行接下来将何去何从。官方一直小心翼翼地表示他们并未进入紧缩周期。上个月，副行长内田真一（Uchida Shinichi）表示不会采取快速连续加息的措施。植田和男也没有透露利率可能稳定在何种水平；大多数经济学家则认为不会超过0.5%。日本央行还将继续购买“大致相同数量”的政府债券以控制长期利率。其资产负债表的正常化将是个循序渐进的过程。智库东京短资（Totan Research）的加藤出（Kato Izuru）表示：“日本央行这只看得见的手在市场上留下了巨大的印迹，他们希望减少痕迹，但不能太过突然。”
As theBOJ enters its new era, several risks loom. One comes from overseas. If there is a slowdown in America or China, Japan’s two biggest trading partners, it would weigh on external demand and drag down the outlook for Japanese firms, making them less likely to invest.
随着日本央行进入新时代，诸多风险逐渐暴露。其一是外患。若美国或中国这两个日本最大的贸易伙伴经济放缓，将对外部需求产生影响，使日本企业的前景未卜，影响他们的投资意愿。
Another comes from within. In the long run, interest payments on Japan’s large government debt will rise, putting pressure on public finances. The financial system looks sound, but Japan’s financial regulator recently stepped up oversight of regional lenders. Many observers are concerned about the impact of rate rises on mortgages and small and medium-sized businesses that do not have large cash buffers.
其二是内忧。从长远来看，日本巨额政府债务的利息将会上升，给公共财政带来压力。尽管金融体系看似稳健，但日本金融监管机构最近加强了对地方贷款机构的监管。许多观察人士担心加息会影响抵押贷款和没有大量现金储备的中小企业。
Most worrying, inflation could drop below target again. Price inflation, while still above 2%, is already falling. Two doveish board members voted against the decision to abolish negative interest rates, arguing that more time was needed to be sure that inflation will stick. For the trend to continue, Japan needs reforms that raise productivity and boost the potential growth rate, Mr Nakaso argues. If there is one lesson from Japan’s era of monetary-policy experiments, it is that there are limits to central banks’ powers. During Japan’s new era, others will have to take the lead.
最令人担忧的是，通胀可能再次回落到2%以下。价格通胀虽仍高于2%，但已显下降之势。两名鸽派董事会成员对废除负利率的决定投了反对票，认为需要更多时间来确保通胀仍会持续。中曾宏认为：为了保持通胀，日本需要改革以提高生产力和潜在增长率。如果说日本的负利率实验有所教训的话，那就是央行的权力是有限的。进入新时代，日本的其他机构必须发挥领导作用。
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