央妈和大妈在买买买上的共同之处| 经济学人财经

2024-04-18 00:04

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May Li，男，我要去追逐心中的太阳，还要继续努力的亚古兽

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精读|翻译|词组

Finance and economics | Buttonwood

财经板块 | 梧桐树专栏

英文部分选自经济学人20240413期财经板块

Finance and economics | Buttonwood

财经板块 | 梧桐树专栏

What China’s central bank and Costco shoppers have in common

中国央妈和超市大妈在买买买上的共同之处？

Hint: it is not a fondness for cryptocurrencies

提示：并非对加密货币的喜爱

Gold hasalways held an allure. The earliest civilisations used it for jewellery; the first forms of money were forged from it. For centuries kings clamoured to get their hands on the stuff. Charlemagne conquered much of Europe after plundering vast amounts of gold from the Avars. When King Ferdinand of Spain sent explorers to the new world in 1511, he told them to “get gold, humanely if you can, but all hazards, get gold.” Ordinary men also clamoured for it after James Marshall, a labourer, found a flake of gold while constructing a saw mill in Sacramento, California, in 1848.

黄金总是充满了诱惑。古老的文明用黄金制作首饰，早期的货币也是由黄金铸造而成。漫漫历史长河中，国王们争相获取黄金。查理曼大帝从阿瓦尔人那里掠夺了大量黄金，继而征服了大半个欧洲。1511年，派遣探险家前往新大陆时，西班牙国王斐迪南二世指示说，“获取黄金，尽量以人道的方式，但无论如何，都要获取黄金。”1848 年，一个名为詹姆斯·马歇尔（James Marshall）的工人在加利福尼亚州萨克拉门托建造锯木厂时发现了碎金，点燃了普通人的“淘金梦”。

People are once again spending big on the precious metal. On April 9th its spot price hit a record of $2,364 an ounce, having risen by 15% since the start of March. That gold is surging makes a certain degree of sense: the metal is seen to be a hedge against calamity and economic hardship. It tends to rally when countries are at war, economies are uncertain and inflation is rampant.

又一轮“淘金热”开始了。3月初以来，黄金现货价格已经上涨了15%，并在4月9日创下了每盎司 2364 美元的纪录。金价的飙升是有一定道理的：黄金被视为对冲灾难和经济困难的工具。当国家处于战争，经济状态不稳定，通货膨胀猖獗时，金价往往会上涨。

But only a certain degree. After all, why is it surging precisely now? Inflation was worse a year ago. The Ukraine war has arrived at something of a stalemate. In the month after Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7th, the price of gold rose by just 7%—half the size of its more recent rally. Moreover, investors had only recently appeared to have gone off the stuff. Those who thought gold would act as a hedge against inflation were proven sorely wrong in 2022 when prices slipped even as inflation spiralled out of control. Cryptocurrencies like bitcoin—often viewed as a substitute for gold—have gained popularity. Longtime gold analysts are puzzled by its ascent.

但也只是有一定道理而已。问题是，为什么金价在此时此刻飙升？一年前通货膨胀更加严重。俄乌冲突已陷入某种僵局。10月7日新一轮巴以冲突爆发后的一个月里，黄金价格仅上涨了 7%，只有近期涨幅的一半。再者，投资者最近对黄金失去了兴趣。那些认为黄金可以对冲通货膨胀的人在2022年时就被证明大错特错，因为当时通胀失控，可黄金价格也在下滑。而被视为黄金替代品的加密货币，如比特币等，则备受欢迎。长期从事黄金分析的人对此次金价的上升也困惑不已。

An investor who cannot understand a rally on the basis of fundamentals must often consider a simpler rationale: there have been more eager buyers than sellers. So, who is buying gold in bulk?

如果基本面无法解释价格的回升，不妨考虑一个更简单的逻辑：渴望买入的投资者比渴望卖出的投资者多。所以，到底是谁在豪买黄金？

Whoever it is, they are not using exchange-traded funds, oretfs, the tool most often used by regular folk through their brokerage accounts, as well as by some institutional investors. There have, in fact, been net outflows from gold etfs for more than a year. After tracking each other closely throughout 2020 and 2021, gold prices and etf inflows decoupled at the end of 2022. Although prices are up by around 50% since late 2022, gold held by etfs has dropped by a fifth.

不论是谁，他们都没有通过交易型开放式指数基金（ETF）来购买（ETF是开立经纪账户的散户们最常用的工具，也备受一些机构投资者的青睐）。事实上，黄金ETF的资金净流出已经持续了一年多。2020年和2021年，黄金价格和ETF资金流入一直保持紧密的相关性，但在2022年底，它们就脱钩了：2022年底以来，黄金价格上涨了约50%，但ETF持有的黄金却减少了五分之一。

注释：

decouple：If two countries, organizations, or ideas that were connected in some way are decoupled, the connection between them is ended. 分离

That leaves three buyers. The first, and biggest, are central banks. In general, central bankers have been increasing the share of reserves that are stored in gold—part of an effort to diversify away from dollars, a move that gathered pace after America froze Russia’s foreign-exchange reserves in response to its invasion of Ukraine. Nowhere is this shift clearer than in China, which has raised the share of its reserves held in gold from 3.3% at the end of 2021 to 4.3%. Trading has picked up in the so-called over-the-counter market, in which central banks buy much of their gold. China’s central bank added 160,000 ounces of gold, worth $384m, in March.

那就剩下了三类买家。最大的买家是各国央行。总的来说，央行官员们一直在增加外汇储备中黄金的份额，而这是去美元化的方式之一。俄乌冲突爆发后，美国冻结了俄罗斯的外汇储备，这一举动为去美元化狠踩了一脚油门。这种转变在中国最为明显，中国已将其外汇储备中黄金的份额从2021年底的3.3%提高到4.3%。在所谓的场外交易市场，即央行购买黄金的主要场所，交易量已然上升。中国央行3月份增持了16万盎司黄金，价值3.84亿美元。

The second is big institutions, such as pension or mutual funds, which may have been making speculative bets or hedges on gold—in case inflation does come back or as protection against future calamities. Activity in options and futures markets, where they tend to do most of their trading, is elevated.

第二类买家是大型机构，如养老基金或共同基金，它们可能一直在通过黄金进行投机或对冲，以防范通胀死灰复燃，或未来天灾人祸意外降临。黄金期权和期货市场的活动有所提升，因为大型机构倾向于在这些平台交易。

The third potential buyer is the most intriguing: perhaps private individuals or companies are buying physical gold. In August it became possible to buy hunks of the metal at Costco, an American superstore beloved by the cost-conscious middle classes for selling jumbo-size packs of toilet paper, fluffy athletic socks and rotisserie chickens, all at super-low prices. The retailer started selling single-ounce bars of gold, mostly online, for around $2,000—just a hair higher than the spot value of bullion at the time. It sold out almost immediately, and continues to do so whenever it restocks. Analysts at Wells Fargo, a bank, estimate that shoppers are buying $100m-200m worth of gold each month from the superstore, alongside their sheet cakes and detergent.

第三类潜在买家最不可思议：也许是个人或公司正在购买实物黄金。美国大型连锁超市开市客（Costco）一直深受勤俭持家的中产阶级喜爱，在那里，他们能以超低价买到超大包厕纸、毛绒运动袜和烤鸡，等等等等。去年8月，开市客开始售卖黄金（主要通过网络销售）。开市客的1盎司金条售价在2000美元左右，仅略高于其时的黄金现货价格。这些金条即时售罄，且不管何时补货都会被一抢而空。富国银行（Wells Fargo）的分析师估计，消费者每月从超市购买薄片蛋糕和清洁剂时，还会买入1到2亿美元的黄金。

注释：

美国富国银行（WELLS FARGO），创立于1852年，总部设在旧金山。[1]创始人是HENRY WELLS和WILLIAM FARGO。美国富国银行是一家提供全能服务的银行，业务范围包括社区银行、投资和保险、抵押贷款、专门借款、公司贷款、个人贷款和房地产贷款等。

That would be 40,000 to 80,000 ounces of gold each month; or, in other words, up to half as much as the Chinese central bank. Such behaviour is perhaps a harbinger of a trend. Inflation in America is creeping up again. It has overshot expectations for three consecutive months, and would reach 4% in 2024 if current trends were to continue. Medium-term expectations, which had dropped, have begun climbing. As shoppers peruse Costco’s wares, worrying about the cost of living, it is it any wonder they are tempted by a bit of bullion?

这也就意味着开市客每月售出4-8万盎司的黄金，或者换句话说，最多可达中国央行买入量的一半。这种行为可能是某种趋势的先兆。美国通胀再次攀升，已连续三个月超出预期。若按当前趋势发展，2024全年通胀率将增至4%。一度下跌的中期预期也已开始回升。当购物者细细研究开市客的商品，担忧生活成本时，被一点黄金诱惑也就不足为奇。

翻译组：

Vivifang，顺应周期，爱与自由同时发生
Summer，梦想能仗翻译/ 音乐/ 健康走天涯

Humi，学习财经的金融小白，不负韶华，平视世界

校对组：

Hannah，做个废柴，保持愉快
Ithil，玮锋不死，豫难未已/李玮锋滚出河南队

Dreamian ，寻找着方向的人，一路走走停停再回首看看

感想

本期作者

Intro，政府临时工，前理想主义者兼积极的悲观主义者

大炮一响黄金万两。

老祖宗传下来的话从来都不是废话，那么该如何理解大炮一响黄金万两？

用情景模拟的方法来代入模拟，西方一声炮响，这有炮响之处的远方势必就有破坏之处。

第一个破坏的是信念，即老百姓讲的“太平日子到头了”。稳定和太平的信念一松动，怀疑和不信任就像北京春天里的杨柳絮，飘得到处都是，不信任管理者、不信任货币、不信任经济稳定。随着不信任，大家就开始抓紧囤积值得信任的东西，钻石恒久远一颗永流传，那是盛世骗小姑娘的，炮火连天的日子“小黄鱼”才是硬通货。货币金融体系在炮响之后也会变得很脆弱，也就是说支付体系和货币体系越不稳定，黄金的价值越高。军队打仗也要真金白银，老百姓买这买那更离不开真金白银，政府抢着屯，百姓抢着屯，风浪越大鱼越贵，黄金价格也就上了天。

用政治经济来解释就是，逆全球化和地缘政治紧张背景下，一些大国或主动或被动的站到了老大的对立面，与老大的紧张和对立加速了各方面的脱钩，货币脱钩和贸易脱钩使得某些大国需要重新锚定自己的货币，增量购入黄金来减少对漂亮货币的依赖成为了各大国央行的主要诉求，甚至为了安全可以不惜高价买进。从交易者行为的角度看，某些大国缺少全球资产配置的能力，黄金是在强外汇监管的情况下少数的几个选择，金价上涨一旦形成趋势，上涨的反身性会推动价格快速上涨。

从纯金融的角度看，黄金相当于0息债券，它的持有成本就是美国的实际利率。所以实际利率越低，黄金的持有成本就越低，作为资产它的吸引力就越高。在价格走势上，黄金的价格一般与美国实际利率反向。在近20年有两次例外，一次是2005年8月-11月，国际油价上涨，通胀率上涨，石油输出国组织大量购入黄金，导致金价与美国实际利率一起走高。再一次就是2022年7月到今天，地缘政治不稳定、局部冲突和大国脱钩，导致各国央行购金增加，叠加投资者对黄金预期偏好转强。

对于未来不好预测，大概率还是会跟随美国实际利率的反向。但万一地缘政治和脱钩更剧烈了，也是很有可能的。

愿景

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