Z世代空前富有 | 经济学人财经

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2024-04-25 00:04

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思维导图作者：

May Li，男，我要去追逐心中的太阳，还要继续努力的亚古兽

精读|翻译|词组

Finance and economics | Earning power

财经板块 | 吸金力

英文部分选自经济学人20240420期财经板块

Generation Z is unprecedentedly rich

Z世代空前富有

Millennials were poorer at this stage in their lives. So were baby-boomers

千禧一代在人生的这个阶段更加窘迫。婴儿潮一代也是如此。

Generation z istaking over. In the rich world there are at least 250m people born between 1997 and 2012. About half are now in a job. In the average American workplace, the number of Gen Z-ers (sometimes also known as “Zoomers”) working full-time is about to surpass the number of full-time baby-boomers, those born from 1945 to 1964, whose careers are winding down (see chart 1). America now has more than 6,000 Zoomer chief executives and 1,000 Zoomer politicians. As the generation becomes more influential, companies, governments and investors need to understand it.

Z世代正在崛起。1997-2012年之间，在富裕国家，至少有2.5亿人出生。其中大约一半人已经开始工作。美国寻常的工作场所中，全职的Z世代（有时也被称为“Zoomers”）人数即将超过全职的婴儿潮一代，即1945-1964年生人——他们的职业生涯即将迎来尾声（见图1）。现在，美国有超过6000位Zoomer首席执行官和超过1000位Zoomer政客。随着这代人的影响力不断加强，企业、政府和投资者需要了解这个群体。

Pundits produce a lot of fluff aboutthe cohort. Recent “research” from Frito-Lay, a crisp-maker, finds that Gen Z-ers have a strong preference for “snacks that leave remnants on their fingers”, such as cheese dust. Yet different generations also display deeper differences, in part shaped by the economic context in which they grow up. Germans who reached adulthood during the high-inflation 1920s came to detest rising prices. Americans who lived through the Depression tended to avoid investing in the stockmarket.

专家们对这个群体提出了很多无关紧要的看法。最近，薯片制造商菲多利 (Frito-Lay) 发布的“研究”显示，Z世代非常偏爱“会在手指上留下残渣的零食”，例如奶酪粉。然而，不同世代之间存在着更深层次的差异，这在相当程度上是由他们成长时的经济环境所塑造的。在上世纪20年代高通胀时期成年的德国人厌恶物价上涨；而经历过大萧条的美国人则倾向于避开股市。

注释：

1.Pundit: a person who gives opinions in an authoritative manner usually through the mass media

Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/pundit

2.Fluff: something inconsequential n.无足轻重的事物

Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/fluff

3.Cohort: a group of individuals having a statistical factor (such as age or class membership) in common in a demographic study

Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/cohort

4.Remnants: a usually small part, member, or trace remaining

Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/remnants

5.Detest：to feel intense and often violent antipathy toward : LOATHE

Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/detest

Many argue that Gen Z is defined by its anxiety. Such worriers include Jonathan Haidt, a social psychologist at New York University, whose new book, “The Anxious Generation”, is making waves. In some ways, Gen Z-ers are unusual. Young people today are less likely to form relationships than those of yesteryear. They are more likely to be depressed or say they were assigned the wrong sex at birth. They are less likely to drink, have sex, be in a relationship—indeed to do anything exciting. Americans aged between 15 and 24 spend just 38 minutes a day socialising in person on average, down from almost an hour in the 2000s, according to official data. Mr Haidt lays the blame on smartphones, and the social media they enable.

许多人认为，Z世代的特征是焦虑。纽约大学社会心理学家乔纳森·海特（Jonathan Haidt）就是其中之一，其新书《焦虑的一代》（The Anxious Generation）正引起轰动。从某些方面来说，Z世代的确与众不同。与过去相比，如今的年轻人更难与他人建立起稳定的关系。他们更容易遭遇抑郁或性别认同障碍。他们饮酒更少、为爱鼓掌更少、谈恋爱更少——事实上，任何刺激的事情，他们都做得更少。官方数据显示：15-24岁的美国人平均每天面对面社交时间仅为38分钟，远低于本世纪初的近一个小时。海特先生将责任归咎于智能手机及其附带的社交媒体。

His book has provoked an enormous reaction. On April 10th Sarah Huckabee Sanders, the governor of Arkansas, echoed Mr Haidt’s arguments as she outlined plans to regulate children’s use of smartphones and social media. Britain’s government is considering similar measures. Butnot everyone agrees with Mr Haidt’s thesis. And the pushing and shoving over Gen Z’s anxiety has obscured another way in which the cohort is distinct. In financial terms, Gen Z is doing extraordinarily well. This, in turn, is changing its relationship with work.

海特的书引起了巨大的反响。基于同样的看法，4月10日，阿肯色州州长萨拉·赫卡比·桑德斯 (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) 概述了该州规范儿童智能手机和社交媒体使用的计划。英国政府正考虑采取类似措施。但并非所有人都同意海特先生的论点。有关Z世代焦虑问题的争议掩盖了该群体独特的另一面。从财务角度来看，Z世代的表现极其出色。反过来，这也改变了他们与工作的关系。

Consider the group that preceded Gen Z: millennials, who were born between 1981 and 1996. Many entered the workforce at a time when the world was reeling from the global financial crisis of 2007-09, during which young people suffered disproportionately. In 2012-14 more than half of Spanish youngsters who wanted a job could not find one. Greece’s youth-unemployment rate was even higher. Britney Spears’s “Work Bitch”, a popular song released in 2013, had an uncompromising message for young millennials: if you want good things, you have to slog.

想想Z世代之前的群体：千禧一代，他们出生于1981-1996年之间。许多人开始工作时，世界正笼罩在2007-09年全球金融危机的阴影下，在这场危机中，年轻人遭受的打击尤为沉重。2012-2014年期间，超过一半想要工作的西班牙年轻人找不到工作。希腊的青年失业率甚至更高。布兰妮·斯皮尔斯 (Britney Spears) 于2013年发行的热门歌曲《Work Bitch》向年轻的千禧一代传达了毫不妥协的信息：如果想要美好的事物，你就必须埋头苦干。

注释：

《工作狂》（英语：Work Bitch，去脏版：Work Work）是收录于美国女歌手布兰妮·斯皮尔斯第8张录音室专辑《真我妮裳》中的一首歌曲，于9月15日在电台首播，16日开放iTunes音乐下载。

Source: https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%83%A1%E5%A5%B3%E5%90%91%E5%89%8D%E8%A1%9D

Gen Z-ers who have left education face very different circumstances. Youth unemployment across the rich world—at about 13%—has not been this low since 1991 (see chart 2). Greece’s youth-unemployment rate has fallen by half from its peak. Hoteliers in Kalamata, a tourist destination, complain about a labour shortage, something unthinkable just a few years ago. Popular songs reflect the zeitgeist. In 2022 the protagonist in a Beyoncé song boasted, “I just quit my job”. Olivia Rodrigo, a 21-year-old singer popular with American Gen Z-ers, complains that a former love interest’s “career is really taking off”.

走出校园的Z世代面临着截然不同的情况。富裕国家的青年失业率约为13%，为1991年以来最低（见图表2）。希腊的青年失业率已降到了峰值的一半。希腊旅游胜地卡拉马塔（Kalamata）的酒店老板还在抱怨人手不够，几年前，这种情况还难以想象。流行歌曲反映了这种时代精神。美国歌手碧昂丝2022年推出的单曲《Break My Soul》里高唱着“我就辞了工作”。21岁的美国歌手奥利维亚·罗德里戈（Olivia Rodrigo）广受Z世代喜爱，她的歌曲《Good For You》吐槽前任“事业蒸蒸日上”。

注释：

1.Zeitgeist: the general intellectual, moral, and cultural climate of an era时代精神(zeit在德语里为time，geist是spirit的意思)

Source：https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/zeitgeist

2.Break My Soul是碧昂丝2022年出的单曲，被粉丝誉为辞职之歌。

Many have chosen to study subjects that help them find work. In Britain and America Gen Z-ers are avoiding the humanities, and are going instead for more obviously useful things like economics and engineering. Vocational qualifications are also increasingly popular. Young people then go on to benefit from tight labour markets. Like Beyoncé’s protagonist, they can quit their job and find another one if they want more money.

很多人都会选择就业前景好的专业。英美两国的Z世代都在避开人文学科，转而学习经济学、工程学这些明显更有用的专业。职业证书也越来越受追捧。年轻人继续从紧张的劳动力市场获益。就像碧昂丝歌曲里的主人公一样，如果想要更多钱，他们完全可以辞职再换个工作。

In America hourly pay growth among 16- to 24-year-olds recently hit 13% year on year, compared with 6% for workers aged 25 to 54. This was the highest “young person premium” since reliable data began (see chart 3). In Britain, where youth pay is measured differently, the average hourly pay of people aged 18-21 rose by an astonishing 15% last year, outstripping pay rises among other age groups by an unusually wide margin. In New Zealand the average hourly pay of people aged 20-24 increased by 10%, compared with an average of 6%.

美国16-24岁的青年群体中，时薪涨幅可达同比13%，而25-54岁的群体时薪涨幅只有6%。自有可靠数据统计以来，“年轻人溢价”已达到顶峰（见图表3）。在英国，年轻人的薪资衡量方式很不一样。去年，18-21岁的青年平均时薪上涨了15%，涨幅惊人，远超其他年龄段。新西兰20-24岁的平均时薪也涨了10%，而各年龄段的平均涨幅只有6%。

Strong wage growth boosts family incomes. A new paper by Kevin Corinth of the American Enterprise Institute, a think-tank, and Jeff Larrimore of the Federal Reserve assesses Americans’ household income by generation, after accounting for taxes, government transfers and inflation (see chart 4). Millennials were somewhat better off than Gen X—those born between 1965 and 1980—when they were the same age. Zoomers, however, are much better off than millennials were at the same age. The typical 25-year-old Gen Z-er has an annual household income of over $40,000, more than 50% above baby-boomers at the same age.

薪资大幅上涨增加了家庭收入。智库美国企业研究所（American Enterprise Institute）的凯文·科林斯(Kevin Corinth)与美联储的杰夫·拉里莫尔（Jeff Larrimore）合作发表了一篇文章，在考虑税收、政府转移支付和通货膨胀后，按世代评估了美国人的家庭收入（见图表4）。文章指出，在同一个年纪时，千禧一代的收入略高于1965-1980年出生的X世代的收入。然而，Z世代的收入却要远高于千禧一代。典型的25岁Z世代家庭年收入超过四万美元，比同龄的婴儿潮一代高出50%以上。

Gen Z’s economic power was on display at a recent concert by Ms Rodrigo in New York. The mostly female teenagers and 20-somethings in attendance had paid hundreds of dollars for a ticket. Queues for merchandise stalls, selling $50t-shirts, stretched around the arena. Ms Rodrigo will have no trouble shifting merchandise in other parts of the world, as her tour moves across the Atlantic. That is in part because Gen Z-ers who have entered the workplace are earning good money throughout the rich world. In 2007 the average net income of French people aged 16-24 was 87% of the overall average. Now it is equal to 92%. In a few places, including Croatia and Slovenia, Gen Z-ers are now bringing in as much as the average.

近来罗德里戈的纽约演唱会也展现了Z世代的经济实力。花费数百美元前来观看演唱会的大多是青春期和二十多岁的女性。出售50美元T恤的商品摊位前排起长龙，环绕了整个场馆。随着罗德里戈的巡演跨越大西洋，她的门票和周边在世界其他地方也不愁销路。部分原因是在富裕国家，已经工作的Z世代赚得不少。2007年，16-24岁的法国青年群体平均净收入只有各年龄段平均收入的87%，而现在，这一年龄段的收入达到了平均水平的92%。在个别地区，包括克罗地亚和斯洛文尼亚，Z世代的收入与平均水平持平。

Some Gen Z-ers protest, claiming that higher incomes are a mirage because they do not account for the exploding cost of college and housing. After all, global house prices are near all-time highs, and graduates have more debt than before. In reality, though, Gen Z-ers are coping because they earn so much. In 2022 Americans under 25 spent 43% of their post-tax income on housing and education, including interest on debt from college—slightly below the average for under-25s from 1989 to 2019. Bolstered by high incomes, American Zoomers’ home-ownership rates are higher than millennials’ at the same age (even if they are lower than previous generations’).

一些Z世代抗议，表示他们的收入不过“虚高”，因为并没有将急剧上涨的大学教育和住房成本算进去。毕竟，全球房价都接近历史最高点，毕业生背负的贷款也比之前更高。但事实上，这些问题Z世代都能应对，毕竟他们挣得很多。2022年，25岁以下的美国人将43%的税后收入用于住房、教育（包括助学贷款利息），这一比例相比于1989-2019年间稍低一些。有了高收入的加持，在同一年纪下，美国Z世代的住房拥有率也比千禧一代高（虽然这个比例还是低于千禧一代之前的世代）。

What does this wealth mean? It can seem as if millennials grew up thinking a job was a privilege, and acted accordingly. They are deferential to bosses and eager to please. Zoomers, by contrast, have grown up believing that a job is basically a right, meaning they have a different attitude to work. Last year Gen Z-ers boasted about “quiet quitting”, where they put in just enough effort not to be fired. Others talk of “bare minimum Monday”. The “girlboss” archetype, who seeks to wrestle corporate control away from domineering men, appeals to millennial women. Gen Z ones are more likely to discuss the idea of being “snail girls”, who take things slowly and prioritise self-care.

这多出来的财富意味着什么呢？千禧世代的成长经历让他们认为能工作是一种特权,并以此调整自己的行为方式。他们对上司不仅非常尊重，还尽力讨好。与之相反的是，Z世代的成长经历让他们认为能工作是个基本人权，这导致他们的工作态度大不相同。去年，躺平文化在Z世代中成为一种风尚，他们将自己的工作量控制在不被辞退的边缘。其他人则在谈论“最低限度星期一”。试图将企业控制权从专横的男性手中夺走的“女老板”榜样备受千禧一代女性追捧。而Z世代更喜欢讨论“蜗牛女孩“，她们做事慢条斯理，优先自我关怀。

The data support the memes. In 2022 Americans aged between 15 and 24 spent 25% less time on “working and work-related activities” than in 2007. A new paper published by theimf analyses the number of hours that people say they would like to work. Not long ago young people wanted to work a lot more than older people. Now they want to work less. According to analysis by Jean Twenge of San Diego State University, the share of American 12th-graders (aged 17 or 18) who see work as a “central part of life” has dropped sharply.

数据显示这不仅仅是段子。在2022年，15-24岁的美国人花在“工作以及工作相关活动”上的时间比2007年时少了25%。国际货币基金组织(IMF)发布的一篇新文章分析了人们期望的工作时长。前不久，年轻人还想比年长者工作更长时间；现在反而倒了过来。来自圣地亚哥州立大学（San Diego State University）的珍·特文格（Jean Twenge）分析表明，美国12年级（17-18岁）的学生中，把工作视作生活主要部分的比例大幅下降。

Another consequence is that Gen Z-ers are less likely to be entrepreneurs. We estimate that just 1.1% of 20-somethings in theeu run a business that employs someone else—and in recent years the share has drifted down. In the late 2000s more than 1% of the world’s billionaires, as measured by Forbes, a magazine, were millennials. Back then pundits obsessed over ultra-young tech founders, such as Mark Zuckerberg (Facebook), Patrick Collison (Stripe) and Evan Spiegel (Snapchat). Today, by contrast, less than 0.5% on the Forbes list are Zoomers. Who can name a famous Gen Z startup founder?

另一个后果就是Z世代成为企业家的可能性在降低。我们估算，在欧盟国家，二十多岁的年轻人中，大概仅有1.1%的人经营企业，且雇有员工，而这个比例近年来持续下跌。《福布斯》杂志数据显示，在21世纪第一个十年的末尾，世界上超过1%的亿万富翁是千禧一代。当时，权威专家张口就是这个那个年轻的科技创始人，如脸书的马克·扎克伯格，Stripe的帕特里克·科里森（Patrick Collison）以及Snapchat的埃文·斯皮格尔（Evan Spiegel）。反观当下，Z世代占据福布斯排行榜上不到0.5%的席位。谁又能想起来一个出名的Z世代创始人呢？

注释:

1.Stripe: 一个全球支付处理平台，约284万活跃网站靠Stripe进行支付服务。

2.Snapchat: 一款图片分享软件应用，日活用户约4亿人。

Gen Z-ers are also producing fewer innovations. According to Russell Funk of the University of Minnesota, young people are less likely to file patents than they were in the recent past. Or consider the Billboard Hot 100, measuring America’s most popular songs. In 2008, 42% of hits were sung by millennials; 15 years later only 29% were sung by Gen Z-ers. Taylor Swift, the world’s most popular singer-songwriter, titled her most famous album “1989”, after the year of her birth. The world is still waiting for someone to produce “2004”.

Z世代的创新产出也在下降。明尼苏达大学（University of Minnesota）的拉塞尔·芬克（Russell Funk）表示，相较于以往，当下的年轻人申请专利的比例在降低。或者，看看衡量美国最受欢迎歌曲的Billboard百强单曲榜：2008年，千禧一代贡献了42%的上榜歌曲。而15年后，Z世代占据该榜单的比例只有29%。全球最受欢迎的唱作人泰勒·斯威夫特最著名的专辑名为《1989》，以纪念自己的出生年份。而这个世界仍在等待着能创作《2004》的巨星横空出世。

How long will Generation Z’s economic advantage last? A recession would hit young people harder than others, as recessions always do. Artificial intelligence could destabilise the global economy, even if youngsters may in time be better placed to benefit from the disruption. For now, though, Generation Z has a lot to be happy about. Between numbers at Madison Square Garden, Olivia Rodrigo sits at the piano and counsels her fans to be thankful for all that they have. “Growing up is fucking awesome,” she says. “You have all the time to do all the things you want to do.” The timeand the money.

Z世代的经济优势能持续多久呢？历史反复证明，衰退对年轻人的打击格外沉重。人工智能将颠覆全球经济，尽管年轻人或可从中获益。但是，着眼当下，Z世代仍有许多值得高兴的事情。在麦迪逊广场花园的演出间隙，奥利维亚·罗德里戈坐在钢琴前，忠告她的歌迷去感激拥有的一切。“长大可太爽了”，她说道。“你有着大把的时间去追求自己的理想“。有闲，有钱。

翻译组：

Martina: 想成为REST的I人

Snowy：敢于经常开始，也是一种坚持

Dreamian: 寻找方向的人，一路走走停停再回头看看

校对组：

Alexis, less is more.

Cecilia,今年过得贵妇一点

Ithil, or be more cruel, love, and so be kind.

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