超能赚钱的银行业交易业务 | 经济学人财经
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思维导图作者：
Summer ，QE在职，梦想能仗走天涯 翻译/音乐/健康
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Finance and economics | Buttonwood
财经| 梧桐树专栏
Banks, at least, are making money from a turbulent world
在这个动荡的世界，起码银行是在挣钱
It is once again a good time to work on a trading desk
再一次迎来了交易台上工作的黄金时代
Working on atrading desk is perhaps the closest an office job can get to a sport. Focus and reflexes matter. On the other side of every trill of the phone or ding from a computer is a client who wants to trade. If ignored, they will hang up and call a competitor. Everyone is sweating, owing to the heat wafting up from stacks of computers whirring at capacity. On a busy day, it is impossible to leave the desk—making the job a feat of endurance. Just as sports teams use code to communicate their tactics, so do traders: “cable, a yard, mine, Geneva,” translates to “Brevan Howard, a hedge fund, is buying £1bn and selling dollars.” Mistakes cause swearing, shouting and sometimes the smashing of equipment.
交易岗位大概是最接近体育竞技的办公室工作了。注意力和反应速度至关重要。电话铃声或者电脑提示音的每一次响起，都意味着一个客户想要进行交易。如果需求被忽视，他们就会挂掉电话转而联系竞争对手。在一台台全功率运转的电脑升腾的热气中，每个人都大汗淋漓。业务繁忙的时候，交易员几乎一整天都离不开交易台，使得这个工作变成了对耐力的考验。正如体育队伍会用密码去沟通战术一样，交易员也会如此。举个例子，“电缆，一码，地雷，日内瓦”其实代表着 “Brevan Howard, 一个对冲基金，正在买入十亿英镑并卖出美元”。在这里，犯错误常常会引发怒骂，怒吼，以及时不时怒气冲冲地砸设备。
Or at least that is how it was a couple of decades ago, in the good old days. Following the global financial crisis of 2007-09, life sapped from the trading floor. Stringent new rules curbed profits. High-frequency traders ate banks’ lunches, especially in stockmarkets. For its part, the global economy was in a stupor, having been tranquillised by low interest rates. Markets moved linearly, with equities drifting up and bond yields slipping down. There were fireworks—the Brexit vote or the election of Donald Trump—but they were rare. This placid world provided investors with little reason to trade in and out of positions. Revenues were slim; returns sagged. Drama on trading floors featured lay-offs, rather than market moves.
至少几十年前的美好时光里，以上的描述的确适用。然而2007到2009年的全球金融危机之后，交易台的生机逐渐暗淡。严格的新规限制了利润。高频交易者抢走了银行的利润，尤其是在股市的利润。而全球经济由于低利率的“镇静效用”而陷入了停滞状态。市场走势平稳，股市缓慢上涨，而债券收益逐渐下降。尽管会出现如英国脱欧以及特朗普当选这样的重大事件，但它们毕竟是罕见的。这个平静的世界让投资者几乎没什么理由进行频繁的交易，不仅收入微薄，回报率下降。交易台上的戏剧性场景更多的是裁员，而不是市场波动。
注释：
Stupor: a condition of greatly dulled or completely suspended sense or sensibility恍惚；麻木
Source：https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/stupor
At long last, however, the good old days appear to have returned. Revenues from trading desks at Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, three giant banks, leapt by around 40% between 2019 and 2020—and have remained at or above that level since. For much of the 2010s global markets businesses barely returned their cost of capital. Now they post double-digit returns on equity. At Goldman, traders churned out a whopping 18% return on average common equity in the first quarter of 2024. At Morgan Stanley they posted 15%.
不过，一切似乎峰回路转了。三巨头（高盛，摩根大通以及摩根士丹利）的交易台收入在2019到2020跃升了40%，并且此后一直维持在该水平或以上。2010年代的大部分时间里，全球市场业务收入只是勉强能覆盖资本成本，而现在这些银行的净资产收益率已经达到了双位数。高盛的交易员于2024年的第一季度实现了惊人的18%的平均净资产收益率，而摩根士丹利交易员的成绩是15%。
注释
净资产收益率：指利润额与平均股东权益的比值，是衡量上市公司盈利能力的重要指标
Until recently, bankers hemmed and hawed about this bonanza. Was it too good to be true? Mediocre returns had endured for such a long time that they had grown cautious about extrapolating from a good quarter, or even a good year. Of course, 2020, a banner year, was an aberration, the logic went—there was hardly going to be another pandemic. Then 2021 was just as good. On earnings calls in early 2022 bank bosses were cautious. “None of us could have anticipated the environment that we have lived through over the last two years,” said David Solomon of Goldman. “We in no way see that as a permanent environment that is going to continue at this pace.” Jeremy Barnum of JPMorgan talked of “normalisation”, followed by “modest growth”. But the chaos of 2022 was just as good for trading and markets did not slow down in 2023. Stocks roared and bond yields collapsed in the final two months of the year. Given that expectations about central-bank policies are still swinging wildly, this year ought to end as another good one.
直到最近，银行家们还在对此泼天富贵诚惶诚恐。这真的是天降横财吗？平庸的回报率持续了如此之久，他们因此在根据一个好季度或者好年份做出推断时，变得慎之又慎。当然，2020年这个标志性的年份是一种异常情况，因为几乎不太可能再出现另一场全球疫情了。然后，2021年行情同样不错。在2022年初的财报电话会议上，银行高管们仍然态度谨慎。高盛的戴维·所罗门（David Solomon）表示：“没有人预料到了过去两年我们所经历的环境。我们绝不认为这样的环境会按当前的节奏永久持续下去。”摩根大通的杰里米·巴努姆（Jeremy Barnum）谈到了“正常化”，接下来则是“适度增长”。但2022年的混乱对交易业务同样有利，而且2023年市场并未放缓。年末两个月，股市强劲上涨，债券收益率大幅下跌。鉴于对央行政策的预期仍在剧烈波动，今年应该又是个好年头。
注释：
1. hem and haw：犹豫不决
2. bonanza：You can refer to a sudden great increase in wealth, success, or luck as abonanza. 鸿运
3.banner: Abanner is a long strip of cloth with something written on it. Banners are usually attached to two poles and carried during a protest or rally. (游行或集合用的) 横幅
So did 2020 represent a structural change in the markets business of banks, rather than a blip? There is reason to think so. Among bankers, cautious optimism has replaced talk of normalisation. Asked if robust activity is the “new normal” for banks, Andy Morton, head of markets at Citigroup, responds that “it is hard to say, honestly, but there are some reasons to expect things will remain reasonably volatile”. That rates have climbed sharply, after the stasis of the previous decade, has been “a recipe for volatility”, he says. He also highlights rising geopolitical tensions and the growth of new industries, such as private credit, as reasons for elevated activity. Trends such as ageing populations and the climate transition might continue to stoke inflation, meaning continued interest-rate volatility. And all kinds of markets have ricocheted in recent years: not just bond and equity markets but also those for currencies and commodities, including European gas.
那么，2020 年是否标志着银行业务市场的结构性变化，而不仅是一次短暂的波动？有充分理由这样认为。银行家们已经转向谨慎乐观的态度，不再继续关于正常化的讨论。当被问及强劲的业务表现是否已成为银行“新常态”时，花旗集团全球市场业务负责人安迪·莫顿（Andy Morton）回应称：“老实说，这很难讲，但有理由预期市场将保持合理程度的波动。他表示，利率在经历前十年停滞之后急剧攀升，是引发市场波动的因素之一。他还强调，地缘政治紧张局势的升级以及新兴行业（如私人信贷）的增长等也加剧了市场波动。人口老龄化和气候转型等趋势可能会继续加剧通胀，这意味着利率的波动将持续。近年来，各类市场都出现了明显的波动：不仅是债券和股票市场，还有货币和包括欧洲天然气在内的大宗商品市场。
注释：
1.blip: Ablip in a situation is a sudden but temporary change or interruption in it. (局势)突然而暂时的变化; 突然而暂时的中断
2.stoke：If youstoke something such as a feeling, you cause it to be felt more strongly. 激起 (某种感觉)
This leads to a striking conclusion. Perhaps ultra-loose monetary policy was more troublesome for banks than post-financial-crisis regulation. As is now clear, it is perfectly possible to make lots of money intermediating markets without committing the sins of the pre-2008 era—not least taking positions—so long as markets are sufficiently volatile. This kind of financial dynamism might not be welcome news to everyone. But it has undoubtedly made the job of trading markets as lucrative, and physically laborious, as in an earlier golden age.
这指向了一个惊人的结论。对银行来说，也许超宽松的货币政策比金融危机后的监管更加棘手。现在很明显，只要市场波动足够大，银行就完全有可能作为市场中介赚取丰厚利润，而不重蹈2008年的覆辙,尤其是不必直接持有头寸。这种金融动态可能并不受所有人欢迎。但毫无疑问，它使交易市场的工作变得像早期的黄金时代一样利润丰厚，并且耗费体力。
Dreamian，寻找方向的人
Vivifang，外币债券交易员，满眼都是鲍威尔
Harold，不狂不放不申花
Hannah 做个废柴，保持愉快
Snowy，敢于经常开始，也是一种坚持
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感想
本周感想
Intro 男，政府临时工，前理想主义者兼积极的悲观主义者
美国和中国银行业所面临的问题和挑战在多个层面上存在显著差异，这些差异体现了两国经济结构、金融市场发展程度以及宏观经济政策的不同侧重点。
首先，美国银行业在信贷风险管理方面可能面临更多挑战，尤其是在房地产信贷领域。由于美国金融市场的成熟度和复杂性，商业地产价格的波动可能对银行资产质量产生较大影响。此外，美联储的高利率政策对美国银行业的融资成本和债券投资市值造成压力，进而可能引发亏损。
相比之下，中国银行业在信贷风险管理上可能更关注整体经济环境的影响。经济增长放缓和新旧动能转换的阻力可能导致信贷需求下降，这直接影响银行的资产质量和盈利能力。同时，中国房地产市场的波动和地方政府债务风险也是中国银行业需要密切关注的问题。
在利率政策方面，美国银行业受美联储政策的直接影响更为显著，而中国银行业则更受国内宏观调控政策的影响。这种差异意味着两国银行业对货币政策变动的敏感度和应对策略可能存在差异。
流动性压力方面，美国银行业可能面临存款流出加速的问题，尽管政府和美联储的干预可能提供一定程度的缓解。中国银行业的流动性压力则可能与经济增长放缓和信贷需求下降有关，这要求银行在资金管理上采取更为谨慎的措施。
数字化转型是两国银行业都在积极推进的领域。美国银行业可能更侧重于提高运营效率、客户服务和风险管理。而中国银行业在数字化转型过程中，除了追求这些目标外，还特别强调与国家战略的结合，如推动绿色金融和普惠金融的发展，这反映了中国政府在经济发展和社会进步方面的长远规划和战略布局。
在风险敞口方面，美国银行业可能在房地产信贷上的风险敞口较大，而中国银行业则可能对多个行业的信贷风险有更均衡的分布，这可能使中国银行业在面对市场波动时具有更强的抵御能力。
最后，市场波动对美国银行业的交易收益影响可能较大，因为美国金融市场的交易活动更为频繁。相比之下，中国银行业可能更注重稳定增长和服务实体经济，对市场波动的敏感度可能相对较低。
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