Finance and economics | Buttonwood
财经版块｜梧桐树专栏
英文部分选自经济学人20240629期财经板块
Finance and economics | Buttonwood
American stocks are consuming global markets
That does not necessarily spell trouble
Sixteen yearsago American stockmarkets reached their modern nadir. During the early 2000s European and emerging-market equities went on a bull run. By March 2008 America had entered recession and its financial crisis was under way. The country’s stocks accounted for less than 40% of the world’s total stockmarket capitalisation. 16年前，美国股市跌入谷底。21世纪初，欧洲和新兴市场股票进入牛市。到2008年3月，美国经济进入衰退，金融危机也愈演愈烈。美股占全球股市总市值的比重不到40％。注释：
nadir 最糟糕的时刻；最低点the worst moment of a particular situationFast-forward to today and things look rather different. America’s share of the world’s stockmarket capitalisation has climbed pretty consistently over the past decade and a half, and sharply this year. It now stands at 61%. That is astonishing dominance for a country which accounts for just over a quarter of globalgdp. The extent of market concentation is all the more extreme given what is happening within the American stockmarket itself. Just three companies—Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia—make up a tenth of the market value of global stocks. 把目光转回当下，情况看起来迥然不同。过去十五年里，美股在全球股市总市值中的占比稳步攀升。今年以来，美股的份额更是急剧上升，目前已站在了61%的高位。对于一个GDP仅占全球四分之一的国家来说，这不可谓不强势。考虑到美股内部的情况，市场集中的程度就更为极端：苹果、微软和英伟达三家公司就占据了全球市场总市值的10％。 拓展阅读： “三巨头占全球市场总市值10%，美股是否已经过于拥挤？”https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1802152637823499987
Investors who would rather not put all their eggs in one basket are worried. Nvidia is now so large that a 13% fall in the chip-designer’s share price between June 18th and 24th, driven by not very much at all, knocked 0.5% off the value of themsci All Country World Index, which covers both emerging and developed markets. The company’s share price later rebounded, rising by 7% over the following two days.不愿把所有鸡蛋放在一个篮子里的投资者不免感到担忧。6月18日至24日，由于一些微不足道的原因，英伟达的股价下跌了13%，但这家芯片设计公司的规模是如此庞大，以至于覆盖新兴市场和发达市场的MSCI全球指数的总市值蒸发了0.5%。随后，该公司股价反弹，在接下来的两天内上涨了7%。 注释：
MSCI All Country World Index是一种全球股票市场指数，由摩根士丹利资本国际（MSCI）编制和发布。该指数包括23个发达国家和26个新兴市场国家的股票，涵盖了全球85%的可投资市值。History offers a mixed picture when it comes to market concentration. Sometimes the dominance of a single country or a handful of stocks is a warning. For instance, during the dotcom bubble, which inflated in the late 1990s, the ten largest American stocks made up a third of domestic market capitalisation, similar to their share today. At the country level, Japan provides an ominous example. By the end of 1989, just before its asset bubble burst, Japanese stocks accounted for 40% of the global total. The four largest companies by market capitalisation were Japanese banks.从历史经验来看，很难说市场集中度高究竟是好是坏。有时，某一个国家或某几家公司占绝对大头不是什么好兆头。例如，上世纪九十年代互联网泡沫时期，十家美国龙头上市公司的合计市值占到美国股市总市值的三分之一，与如今的情形十分相似。在国家层面，日本或许可作为前车之鉴。1989年末，日本资产泡沫破裂前夕，日本股市占到全球股市总市值的40%，且当时全球市值最高的四家公司均为日本的银行。注释：
1、1989年全球上市公司市值排行：
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1261131/biggest-companies-in-the-world-by-market-cap-1989/
2日本央行关于资产泡沫破裂的分析文章：
https://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/papers/english/me19-s1-14.pdfBut concentration can also be benign. During the 1950s and early 1960s, markets were concentrated in both a single country and a small group of firms within it. Europe was still recovering from the second world war and Asian markets had yet to reach global prominence, meaning that American stocks made up as much as 70% of the global market. A handful of blue-chip firms, such asat&t, Exxon and General Motors, were ascendant. Indeed, the ten biggest stocks also accounted for a third of the stockmarket back then, without obvious adverse consequences.但高集中度也不一定是坏事。上世纪五十年代至六十年代初，全球股市市值不仅集中于一个国家，还集中于该国家的一小撮上市公司。彼时，欧洲还未完全从第二次世界大战中恢复过来，亚洲市场表现还不突出，美国股市一家独大，占据了全球市值的70%。美国电话电报公司（AT&T）、埃克森（EXXON）、通用汽车（General Motors）等几家美国龙头公司的市值格外突出，前十大美国企业市值合计占全球总市值的三分之一，但并未造成显著的负面影响。Does today’s situation resemble the benign leadership of the 1960s or the speculative bubble of the late 1990s? Valuations are certainly steep. Nvidia has a price-to-income ratio of 43, based on earnings expected next year. That explains the volatility on show over the past week. Relatively small changes in expectations can drive large movements in market value, especially when a company is as large as Nvidia. The recent broader market rally is based on hopes about the future impact of artificial intelligence, which is inherently uncertain.那么今日之局面，到底是上世纪六十年代正面领导地位的复刻，还是九十年代末负面投机泡沫的重演呢？现下的估值已然是“高处不胜寒”。基于明年预期收入，英伟达的股价收入比为43。这或许可以解释上周的大起大落：预期收入的微小变动也会导致市值大幅变动，特别是对于英伟达这样的庞然大物而言。近日大盘反弹的基础是市场对人工智能未来应用前景的乐观预期，但这实际上充满了不确定性。Yet even at current prices, there is a gulf between today’sai-driven optimism and past periods of speculative mania. In 2000 Cisco Systems, a darling of optimistic investors, traded at over 125 times its expected earnings. The price-to-earnings ratio of Japanese stocks—not just the priciest firms, but the entire market—reached 60 in 1989.然而，尽管在人工智能带来的乐观情绪的助推下，股价一飞冲天，但当前的估值水平和过往的投机狂热期比起来，仍是小巫见大巫。2000年，乐观投资者的宠儿思科（Cisco Systems）的股价是其预期收益的125倍以上。1989年，日本股市的市盈率——不是股价最高的几家公司，而是整个股市——达到了60倍。Instead of speculative excess, the main reason for America’s dominance is more prosaic. The earnings per share of themsci us index have risen by 162% since March 2008. By contrast, the earnings per share of global markets excluding America have dropped by 2% in dollars terms over that time. More than those anywhere else, American firms have shown an ability to grow, become profitable and return money to investors.将美股送上王座的并不是过度投机；相反，其背后的逻辑朴实无华，且枯燥。自2008年3月以来，MSCI美国指数的每股收益已经上涨了162%。相比之下，同期全球（除美国外）市场上，以美元计价的每股收益下降了2%。与其他任何地方相比，美国企业的增长能力、盈利能力和给投资者带来回报的能力都更优秀。注释：
prosaic：ADJ Something that is prosaic is dull and uninteresting. 枯燥乏味的In reality, only a bit of America’s dominance reflects technology companies. Perhaps the most revealing analysis is one that removes them from the calculation entirely. Exclude tech firms and America’s share of global equities falls to 55%. Even that share is the highest it has been in decades, up by more than 20 percentage points from its low in 2008.事实上，对于美股的统治地位，科技公司只做了一点微小的贡献。或许最能说明问题的是完全排除了科技公司的分析。这般操作后，美股占全球股市总市值的份额降至55%。但即使如此，这一数字也是几十年来最高的，比2008年的低点高出20多个百分点。This is not an argument for complacency about an undeniably expensive market. But concentration is always a symptom of some driving force. When it comes to America’s current dominance, the driving force is entirely familiar: strong companies in new markets have become highly profitable. Although diversification remains a worthy goal, diversifying away from success is unlikely to leave investors very happy.这当然不是说面对这样一个毫无疑问过于昂贵的市场，人们可以高枕无忧。但高集中度往往是某种驱动因素的表征。就美股当前的绝对主导地位而言，驱动因素人尽皆知：新的市场领域里，大公司大赚特赚。尽管多元化仍然是一个值得追求的目标，但投资者不大会喜欢赚不到钱的多元化。翻译组：
Vivifang，顺应周期，爱与自由同时发生
Summer，梦想能仗翻译/ 音乐/ 健康走天涯
风筝，热爱生活 热爱翻译 热爱搞钱 热爱猫咪
Alexis, Less is more
Cecilia，今年过得贵妇一点
Ithil, or be more cruel, love, and so be kind
