人口缩减意味着一个更加贫困和动荡的世界 | 经济学人财经
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思维导图作者：
May Li，我要去追逐心中的太阳，还要继续努力的亚古兽
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Finance and economics | Free exchange
财经板块 | 自由交流
英文部分选自经济学人20240511期财经板块
If current forecastsare accurate, 2064 will be the first year in centuries when fewer babies are born than people die. Birth rates in India will fall to below the level seen in America last year. Even with immigration and successful pro-natal policies, America’s population will only have a little bit of growth left. By 2100 there will be many fewer migrants left to attract. The world’s fertility rate will hit 1.7. Just two Pacific islands and four African countries will manage to reproduce above replacement level.
若当前预测准确，2064年将是几个世纪以来首次出现出生人数少于死亡人数的一年。印度的出生率将低于美国去年的水平。即使有移民进入、成功推动鼓励生育政策，美国的人口增长也将十分有限。到2100年，可吸引的移民数量将大大减少。全球的生育率将降至1.7。只有两个太平洋岛屿和四个非洲国家的生育率能够维持在更替水平以上。
Sooner or later, therefore, every big economy will collide with a demographic wall. The bill from pensions and hospitals will pile on fiscal pressure. Sapped of workers and ideas, economic growth could collapse while public debt balloons. Just how catastrophic the situation becomes depends on whether policymakers maintain budgetary discipline, withstand pressure from angry older voters and, crucially, are willing to inflict pain on populations now in order to save future generations from more later on.
注释：
1.collide：CLASH
Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/collide
2.Sap: to gradually diminish the supply or intensity of
Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/sap
America and Europe at least have longer to prepare than East Asia, which is already starting to feel the strain. South Korea has been ageing for a while, but only in the past four years has its population started to decline. It will now continue to fall for decades, as larger generations die off. By 2036 twice as many Koreans will be over the age of 65 as under 18. China will reach a similar point by 2040. America will take until 2100 to catch up.
美国和欧洲至少还有更长的时间来应对这一挑战，而东亚已经开始感受到压力。韩国人口老龄化已经持续了一段时间，但仅在过去四年内其人口才开始减少。随着人口数量较大的几代老年人相继去世，人口将在未来几十年持续下降。到2036年，65岁以上的韩国人口将是18岁以下人口的两倍。中国将在2040年达到类似的状况。相比之下，美国要到2100年才会赶上这一趋势。
Still, rich countries will need to spend 21% ofgdp a year on old folk by 2050, up from 16% in 2015, according to the imf. A quarter of that will go on pensions. The rest will be required for health- and social-care provision. It is possible that artificial intelligence and pharmaceutical advances will cut the budget. But recent history suggests that such advances are more likely to raise it.
尽管如此，根据国际货币基金组织的预测，到2050年，富裕国家每年将需要将GDP的21%用于老年人，而在2015年这一比例为16%。其中四分之一将用于养老金，其余部分将用于医疗和社会保障。人工智能和医药领域的进步可能会减少这部分预算，但最近的历史表明，这类进步更有可能增加支出。
The exact size of the demographic hit does not just depend on how quickly populations age, but also on what they expect from the state. In this regard, South Korea has a somewhat bleak advantage. Theimf reckons that its debt-to-gdp ratio, a modest 55%, is unsustainable in the long run and the government is still struggling to get its deficit below a 3% target. Yet few of its elderly were promised state pensions. Instead, nearly 40% of them are in poverty, the highest rate in the oecd club of mostly rich countries.
人口冲击的规模大小不仅取决于人口老龄化的速度，还取决于人们对政府的期望。对此，韩国看似有优势，实际上却令人担忧。国际货币基金组织认为，其55%的债务占GDP比率虽然不高，但长期来看不可持续，且政府仍在致力于将赤字降至3%以下。然而，韩国老年人很少能获得国家养老金保障。相反，将近40%的老年人生活贫困，在主要由富裕国家组成的经合组织成员国中比例最高。
注释：
debt-to-gdpratio：债务与GDP之比是经济学家用来比较一国总债务与其国内生产总值（GDP）的重要指标。这一比例展示了该国偿还贷款的能力，比例越高，一个国家无法支付债务利息的风险就越大，出现债务违约的可能性也就越高。
The size of the hit will also depend on how economies adapt to a decrepit world. Take government borrowing. Its sustainability reflects the gap between interest rates that prevail when inflation is stable—the so-called neutral rate—and economic growth, which boosts tax receipts. Ageing populations bring gloomy prospects for growth. Research shows that older workers tend to be less mentally agile, and therefore less productive. Shrinking populations could be even worse for growth, which economists believe requires the constant generation of new ideas. Charles Jones of Stanford University has modelled what happens in a world where there are ever fewer people to dream up innovations. The total stock of ideas, he finds, will grow more and more slowly. Economic growth will come to halt; living standards will stall.
人口冲击的规模还将取决于各经济体如何适应一个衰老的世界。以政府举债为例。其可持续性反映了通胀稳定时的利率（即所谓的中性利率）和经济增长之间的差距，经济增长会提高税收收入。人口老龄化导致经济增长前景黯淡。研究表明，高龄员工思维不再敏捷，工作效率也随之降低。人口缩减对经济增长来说可能更糟，经济学家认为，经济增长需要源源不断地产生新想法。斯坦福大学的查尔斯·琼斯（Charles Jones） 模拟了创新者越来越少时，世界会发生什么。他发现，新想法的总储备增速日益放缓。经济增长将会止步不前；生活水平将会停滞不前。
What is less clear is whether interest rates will be low enough to keep a lid on debt-to-gdpratios. Perhaps the neutral rate, which incentivises an equal amount of savings as investment in an economy, will track economic growth, as many expect. A proliferation of old folk means more people saving for retirement. And a paucity of investments from young entrepreneurs means that these savers will have little choice but to accept lower rates. Yet Charles Goodhart of the London School of Economics and Manoj Pradhan of Talking Head Macroeconomics, a research firm, disagree that this is the most likely outcome. They think a spending spree by grey consumers, fuelled by government handouts to the old, could drive up the neutral rate of interest. Because governments would then struggle to repay even their existing debts, they will resort to inflating them away.
目前尚不明朗的是，利率是否会低到足以控制债务与GDP之比。或许，正如许多人的预期，中性利率（在经济中使得储蓄与投资平衡的利率）将跟随经济增长。老年人口的增加意味着更多人为退休而储蓄。而年轻创业者的投资匮乏则意味着这些储户别无选择，只能接受较低的利率。然而，伦敦政治经济学院的查尔斯·古德哈特（Charles Goodhart）和研究公司“Talking Head Macroeconomics”的马诺伊·普拉丹（Manoj Pradhan）并不同意这是最可能的结果。他们认为，在政府给老年人的补贴的刺激下，老年消费者的消费热潮可能推高中性利率。由于政府甚至连现有的债务都难以偿还，只能通过通货膨胀减轻债务负担。
注释：
1.keep a lid on: 保守秘密，不让某事被知晓；控制某事，防止其恶化。
2. natural rate：中性利率，refers to the short-term real interest rate that would prevail in the absence of business cycle shocks, with output at potential, saving equating investment and stable inflation.
3.spree：If you spend a period of time doing something in an excessive way, you can say that you are going on a particular kind of spree. 放纵
Over the hill
越过山丘
There are steps Western governments could take to soften the blow. Credible monetary policy, which reassures investors that central bankers will quash spending binges prompted by ageing populations, would help. If governments were to rein in deficits in anticipation of future danger, that would make an even bigger difference. Pensions will have to be cut back as public finances adjust to longer lifespans. Theimf reckons that rich-world governments will need to raise the retirement age by five years by the end of the century, even as increases in life expectancy slow.
注释：
binge：If you go on a binge, you do too much of something, such as drinking alcohol, eating, or spending money. 放纵
These reforms would be unpopular now. Who wants to be the politician to inform millions of retired bureaucrats, soldiers and teachers that their pensions are being slashed in order to look after future generations? But in years to come, when the grey vote carries even more sway, they will become just about impossible—making it all the more important for politicians to act sooner rather than later. Although assessing the impact of shrinking populations can sometimes feel like peering into a distant future, the threat is already playing on the mind of leaders such as Emmanuel Macron, France’s president. Last year he risked his position by proposing reform of the country’s pension system, and faced protests that were widespread even by French standards. Other politicians will have taken note.
这些改革目前不受欢迎。谁会愿意做那个告诉数百万退休官员、士兵和教师，他们的养老金将被削减以照顾子孙后代的政客呢？但未来几年，当老年选民的影响力更大时，这些改革将几乎变得不可能——这更需要政客们尽快采取行动，而不是拖延。尽管评估人口减少的影响有时感觉像是在窥探遥远的未来，但这种威胁已经在法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙（Emmanuel Macron）等领导人的心头萦绕不散。去年，他冒着失去总统宝座的风险，提出了改革法国养老金制度的建议，并遭遇了即使是按照法国标准来看也相当广泛的抗议活动。其他政客也会注意到这一点。
注释：
Carry sway：类似hold sway，If someone or something holds sway, they have great power or influence over a particular place or activity. 未来人口老龄化将为国家财政等带来压力，行动宜早不宜迟。
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愿景
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