日本执政党四面楚歌（二） | 经济学人
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Japan’s ruling party is in crisis
日本执政党四面楚歌（7-12段）
英文部分选自经济学人20240203期
Yet Mr Kishida will still struggle to win re-election as LDP president when his term ends in September. Although challengers have yet to step forward, many party members will be looking for new leadership as the deadline for the next general election looms in 2025. The contest will be unpredictable in part because of the weakening of the factions, which used to be able to direct their members’ votes. “Now I can choose the candidate whom I truly believe in—before it was just a set menu from the faction,” says one LDP parliamentarian.
尽管如此，岸田文雄若想在9月任期结束时连任自民党总裁，仍将经历一场苦战。虽然竞争者尚未出现，但随着2025年下届大选最后期限逼近，许多党内成员会寻找新的领导者。过去能够左右成员选票的派阀如今正走下坡路，这在一定程度上让竞争难以预测。一位自民党议员表示：“现在我可以选择真正信任的候选人了——在此之前，候选人只是派阀的内定人选。”
Even if Mr Kishida hangs on, the LDP faces a new era of instability. The turmoil will at the very least distract from other priorities. The government may also find it harder to fulfil big promises, especially those that require the public to shell out, such as Mr Kishida’s pledge to increase the defence budget by two-thirds by 2027. His government’s plans to finance the increase by raising corporate, income and tobacco taxes have already been delayed once.
即便岸田文雄能连任，自民党也会面临动荡的新时代，至少这场混乱会影响政府在其他重要事项上的投入度。日本政府可能会更难兑现重大承诺，尤其是在需要公众买单的情况下，比如岸田文雄承诺到2027年将国防预算增加三分之二。其政府曾计划提高企业税、所得税和烟草税来供给国防预算，但该计划一度推迟。
The balance of power inside the LDP may also shift appreciably on several big policy debates. “It’s still the LDP, so it’s only within a range, but there may be changes,” the LDP lawmaker says. The wing of the party that belonged to Seiwakai, the largest faction and the one at the centre of the financial misdeeds, is likely to see its influence diminished. That faction has been a staunch advocate of strengthening Japan’s defences. “We lose that engine,” says Mutai Shunsuke, an LDP lower-house member.
自民党内部权力平衡也可能会在几场重大政策辩论中发生明显倾斜。自民党议员表示：“现在自民党仍然是那个自民党，所以动荡是控制在一定范围内的，但可能还会有变数。”作为财务丑闻漩涡中心以及最大的派系，安倍派所属党内势力很可能会受到削弱。该派系一直坚定主张加强日本国防。自民党下议院议员務台俊介（Mutai Shunsuke）表示：“我们失去了这个主力。”
Seiwakai has also been a brake on social reforms, such as legalising gay marriage, allowing married couples to have separate surnames and opening the imperial family to female succession. Nikkei, a business daily, has speculated that Seiwakai’s decline may open political space to relax Japan’s stringent immigration policy.
同时，安倍派一直掣肘着社会改革，例如在同性婚姻合法化、允许已婚夫妇使用不同姓氏、开放女性皇位继承权等议题上“踩刹车”。经济日报《日本经济新闻》曾猜测，安倍派的衰落或将打开日本的政治空间，从而放宽其严苛的移民政策。
The LDP’s legal troubles are unlikely to fade quickly. At issue is how the party raises funds from supporters and distributes money to its members, rather than the outright bribery of an earlier political era. The dollar amounts may seem trifling to those accustomed to American political contests:Seiwakai is accused of amassing a slush fund of ¥500m ($3.5m) over a period of five years.
自民党的法律纠纷不太可能很快平息。争论焦点在于，该党如何从支持者筹集资金，并将资金分配给其成员，而非像之前那样公然贿赂。对于习惯了美国政治竞选的人来说，这看起来是点小钱：安倍派被指控在五年内积累了5亿日元（合350万美元）的贿赂资金。
Yet the revelations come just as the government has been pushing for greater transparency in the private sector, through a strict new tax-invoicing system and corporate-governance reforms. Learning that politicians were stuffing their pockets meanwhile has enraged the public. The prosecutors handling the affair want to take the case as far as possible, says Toshikawa Takao, editor of Insideline, a political journal: “They are motivated by the idea of standing up to power.”
然而，“黑金”丑闻的揭露适逢政府通过严格的新税务发票制度和企业治理改革，推动私营行业增强透明度之际。这些政治人物一边向公众宣扬透明度，一边却偷偷为自己谋取利益，这种行为激怒了民众。负责此案的检察官们希望能尽可能地推进调查，政治期刊《Insideline》的编辑歳川隆雄（Toshikawa Takao）表示：“他们的动力来自于对权力的抗争意识。”
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Yo，女，种下过流星，立志不做大鸵鸟
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