四

引言

I am afraid that the entire political structure of the West since 1945 was built on a constant "war" against somebody. Until 1991, it was USSR; then there were 10 unhappy hears until Islamic Fundamentalism came along (never a worthy opponent), now the West has found China. https://t.co/WxqIneG8QG

— Branko Milanovic (@BrankoMilan) March 6, 2021

大内宣

 

 

历史的谎言

"But decades from now...someone...would all end in tears". No. On the contrary, this will become the basis of another round of self-congratulatory hubris, "see, we Americans have such

 

 

Does this refer to political liberalism (in opposition to authoritarianism)? Or economic liberalism (in opposition to economic nationalism or mercantilism)? Or liberalism in the sense that international relations theorists use it (in opposition to realism and other theories of international relations)?

The easy answer is that it refers to all three — because they go hand in hand

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

end of history, populsim+china+internal (race, inequality)+covid=> wrong

 The Anglo-American history profession’s cardinal sin has been so-called “presentism,”

 

（意义不大）‘Time’s Monster’ Review: Empire of the Historians - WSJ

 

 

大外宣与战狼

A bipartisan U.S. consensus emerges on the scale of the threat from Beijing

 

如果此话不是出自一个白人口里，尤其是保守白男人，那肯定被攻击成大外宣

A lot of US foreign policy experts are worried about #China's rise. Me too. But how many of these experts have reflected on the fact that China hasn't been fighting wars in lots of places, while steadily gaining greater wealth, power and influence?

— Stephen Walt (@stephenWalt) June 29, 2021

 

内在的文化战

 

 

战争

Is it that Beijing doesn't have intent because it doesn't have capability? If so, the US should take advantage of this window to help Taiwan develop the capabilities to counter what is surely a longer-term Beijing intent and capability. https://t.co/jpOC3SHe48

— Elizabeth Economy (@LizEconomy) June 19, 2021

 

Australian and British Navy ships will send a joint message to China by sailing through the South China Sea. Prime Minister Morrison's stance against Beijing has garnered support from leaders around the world. @jekearsley #9News pic.twitter.com/T1jmwqMFN8

— 9News Melbourne (@9NewsMelb) June 20, 2021

 

Tonight, the Grand Hotel is lit up in A??T to celebrate Taiwan-U.S. friendship.
The de facto U.S. Embassy in Taiwan is called The American Institute in Taiwan or AIT; the pronunciation of the letter "I" is similar to 愛 (which means love??).
A??T also means America loves Taiwan. pic.twitter.com/NtxawTsvBp

— 王定宇 Wang Ting-yu, MP (@MPWangTingyu) June 20, 2021

 

Biden’s plan to keep China in check relies on Manila | Financial Times（菲律宾）

The biggest challenge, though, lies in Putin’s actions, which are unpredictable by design. Biden’s overriding foreign policy goal is to rebuff an increasingly assertive China. A key element of Biden’s strategy is to frame the global stakes between the US and China (and Russia, as China’s autocratic lieutenant) in terms of democracy versus autocracy. That is all very well. But America’s friends are watching the direction of US politics with genuine trepidation. Far from banishing the forces of Trumpism, Biden’s victory has hastened their full takeover of the Republican party. To European observers, the world’s most consequential democracy vs autocracy battle may in fact be taking place within the United States.

The relief among European officials was visible. Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, referred to America’s president as “Dear Joe” — an endearment it would be hard to imagine being used for many of Biden’s predecessors, not just Trump. “Biden’s language and tone was everything Europeans wished for,” says Jeremy Shapiro, research director at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

“One European official told me he thinks about America in the way an amputee feels that a missing limb is still there. Will it grow back?”对美国民主的怀疑Edward Luce

就是我说的，该让就得让

Such an approach means downplaying Biden’s “democracy versus autocracy” framing. America would instead play on autocratic Russia’s anxiety about being treated as a little brother by China

Europe’s reluctance to view China with the same existential concern as America does. The continent does more trade with China than the US

 

 

拜登可怜

Example of why we shouldn’t allow progressive policies to be tethered to escalation. Some said Biden needed the anti-China rhetoric to sell progressive policies in Washington, but shouldn’t we be worried about him using progressive policies to sell escalation?

— Sarah Lazare (@sarahlazare) June 24, 2021

 

The president’s visit to Europe isn’t about trade deals but repairing US domestic politics

假安抚，腾出手来，不是攘外必先安內，而是假攘外则安內

Anyone with such hopes is bound to be disappointed. Despite his rhetoric, Biden isn’t really interested in a return to the status quo, or in reuniting the old band of transatlanticists to tour their greatest hits. The old transatlantic relationship reflected America’s needs after the 1939-45 war. The US didn’t create Nato or shovel money at shattered European economies out of disinterested generosity, but because it wanted to strengthen allies to better face shared threats.

这就是我说的，拜登打得民主牌是为给大家画大饼，

中国讽刺美国，称要搞“疫苗外交”，美国想给世界“画大饼”，“说大话，没有钱”，G7给世界画了一张“基建大饼”，非也，拜登时民主大饼

例子

 

 

 

 

美国的吸引力是很大的，普京顶得住吗？

中国对美国碰头风声冷淡

 

德国

老天，默克尔的接班人有点戏，不过

 

默克尔素描

 

 

 

金灿荣胡诌，但这也不无道理

 

 

欧洲的从属地位

“Do we need a new adversary?” With those words, Armin Laschet summed up the European response to Joe Biden’s efforts to convince Europeans to get tougher on China

Beijing’s hope was not to be. What surprised China is that the EU never regarded the CAI as a political agreement. Having forced Beijing to concede on key points, the bloc did not hesitate to walk over China’s most salient red lines. On March 22, the EU joined the U.K. and the U.S. in imposing sanctions aimed at Chinese officials believed to be involved in human rights violations in Xinjiang province. b/c "It is part of the EU’s political tradition to believe that politics and the economy can be insulated from each other“”

a list of undesirable...seems to have been approved by the top leadership in Zhongnanhai with little or no scrutiny

Chinese officials I talked to expressed any doubt that, on March 22, the Chinese leadership decided to kill the investment agreement with the European Union. The choice was conscious and deliberate

So it's not "outplayed", just misunderstood,

Andreas Fulda
But with CCP-led China Flag of China that is impossible. This is a major flaw in European thinking about China

 

澳大利亚的莫里森说服欧洲和中国较劲

成功把澳大利亚拒绝对气候承诺的话题转了，中国驻澳大利亚大使馆向澳大利亚政府的“14点”成了最后通牒，不仅仅是对澳大利亚，莫里森向“盟友们”一摊，也成了中国向西方的最后通牒

Speaking of threats and intimidation, Macron declared Australia was at the “forefront” of the dispute in the region and pledged to stand by Canberra’s side

The speech raised eyebrows from those listening in, including assembled press who knew Macron had told an earlier summit in Brussels that he didn’t think China was NATO’s business. But a transcript of what Macron actually said at NATO is telling. Of China, he said: “It is much larger than just the military issue. It is economic. It is strategic. It is about values. It is technological.”

The statement was probably less than Morrison and an increasingly assertive Biden had hoped for but was a big step up from just two years ago

中国在外交上咄咄逼人，市场开放迟迟不兑现

 

the harsh truth is that there will be no Western alliance to contain China, and no united democratic front against Beijing’s authoritarianism

这是我要说的

 

 

 

中国信吗？

 

中国为什么排出一大批飞机骚扰台湾？中国已经好多天没飞行了，就是为了给西方、美国一个信号，好，七强、欧盟、北约先后公报，中国受不了了，只能飞

 

信号？

对此美欧有如此不同的反应，美国人（鹰派）觉得天啊，拜登没跟欧洲小弟们说好吗，怎么敢私自通俄？美国的阵营不是险了？欧洲：美国跟俄国搞稳定，我们也学学，跟上

 

 

 

Biden's China strategy: a chronology

 

拜登送出绞索，习近平伸上脖子

中国人说得对，七强，加上“西方霸权主义的走狗”并不代表全世界，但他们加起来是当前超过世界经济的一半，和而不同表示允许他人说话，反击

习近平的全面出击，明摆着就是让所有敌人团结在一起，不是敌人也成了敌人，即使西方抗疫不得力，处处挤哒、攻击，谁会高兴啊？

 

专制导致无能，中国外交部的战狼只会文革那种揭短（尽管很多也是事实）、侮辱谩骂、含沙射影指桑骂愧，和直接攻击对方的价值观和国家体制，说是“以其人之道，还治其人之身”

没有疑问美国已经把中国视为敌人，处处将中国置于死地，中国也不得不反击，但这并不意味着全面与“美国的走狗”为敌，而且把西方统称为“走狗”本身就是失策

什么是该反击的？拜登公开命令美国情报部门调查武汉病毒研究所泄露案

中国有很多“正能量”出处的反击，最大的莫过于呼吁全世界团结制造、接种疫苗，包括免费向落后国家提供疫苗（这点中国做的不够，大部分是出口，出售）

 

欧盟和中国存在巨大利益，而且还在许多领域对中国非常依赖

欧盟长期以来都是中国第一大贸易伙伴，疫情期间降到第二，略微少于东盟。因此欧盟为了美国的战略利益而放弃中国是根本不可能的。这个代价欧盟既承受不起，美国也无法给予相当的补偿。这既是美国今天的国力使然，也是美国的经济结构决定的

那欧洲怎么想，你知道吗？

黑斯廷斯中心的高级顾问、《中国处方：揭露美国对中国药品依赖的风险》一书的作者罗斯玛丽·吉布森表示：“假如中国停止出口药品生产的核心成分，几个月之内，美国的药店货架就会空空如也，医疗系统就会停止运作。”

万一开战，美国鹰派们绝对没想过

“第三，拜登和特朗普外交政策迥然不同，但本质上并没有多少区别。都是美国利益优先”，大概我想的，大家也想到了，都是大什么

“中国的收获则是拜登并没有真正地把欧洲拉过去，反而是欧洲利用美国满足了自己的利益。下面就看中国如何对欧洲出牌了”

中国的反击是算好了协定被冻结的后果，欧洲的窗口并不大，机会很短，但宋忽视了价值在西方心目中的地位，而且美欧都没有把政局变更作为主要因素，尽管他们也担心，这点是中西的区别，但结局并不明朗

欧洲民粹没那么严重了

 

美国对中国技术的全面封杀

 

 

美国的东风

 

 

台湾

 

 

 

这才是含金量高的攻击，都不用骂人，只需要把事实列举出来，然后说“我们西方发达国家真正把威胁人类生存的大事和他们口头承诺联系起来”，共同接受挑战即可。

- Japan came round to setting a coal end date
- US was the one that blocked, coal, EVs target
- Italy offered tiny amount for climate finance... but the US didn't even offer a figure

China’s Foreign Policy Needs More ‘Doves’ Like Wu Jianmin – The Diplomat（2016）

暨南大学陈定定

 

 

 

美国非武力战

“国际反腐”

 

美国海军重建整个驱逐舰舰队，90艘，2028完成设计，开始建造，2032年服役（或下水）

 

 

 

？

The Chinese entrepreneur who challenged the state and was locked up | Financial Times（孙大午）

 

冠毒战

 

新的（2021.08.15）

 

世卫重新向中国叫阵，美国跟上，恶战来了

 

种族歧视，种族迫害

 

疫苗出口

Yes US has a point

 

 

新阴谋论

量化宽松