大家如何看模式动物的high-throuput phenotyping# Biology - 生物学
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EB2-India & China Movement
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2012/01/visa-bulletin-feb
Statement in Visa bulletin clearly tells that so far (i.e. 6th January 2012)
upto third business day of January visa bulletin, rate of filings is very
low and hence in order to ensure that enough demand is available for USCIS
to process during spillover season for FY 2012, dates had moved rapidly.
Few things that can inferred from above statement is that filing upto
December Visa Bulletin from October 2011 are very low than what DOS wants as
an inventory for FY 2012. We initially expected cases upto December
bulletin cut-off date to be around 16000 but current trackitt trend is
pointing towards 9412 applications. (2200 I-485 filings from October Receipt
Data and 166 trackitt applications gives factor of 13. From October-
December 2011, trackitt has 724 pending cases, which converts into 724*13 =
9412 cases). This is too early to suggest that filings are low but we will
continue to monitor I-485 Receipt data and trackitt trend for next few days.
DOS bulletin clearly mentions that once the level of new filings or USCIS
processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the
movement of the cut-off. So we can be rest assured that atleast for the
next visa bulletin there will be no retrogression. Worst case it will stall.
Presently we feel dates will move ahead for next bulletin but slowly.
Expected movement can be anywhere from 2-5 months. Our attorney friend also
feels movement will continue until April 2012.
As per Mr. Oppenheim, "Readers are once again advised that an eventual need
to retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility." That
eventual need will be seen around May 2012 visa bulletin i.e. in April.
2012 Dates will retrogress at some point but level of retrogression is
difficult to determine without inventory data. Retrogression beyond December
2007 is not plausible. If demand continue to stay less, then June September
2008 could be considered as a high mark point for retrogression but for now
lets stick to March-June 2008 as cut-off dates for FY 2012 until we see
some more inventory numbers.
It was not clear from above analysis how annual visa use scenario looks like
if we consider that trackitt trend from October 2011-December 2011 is
resemblance of real demand. Please see numbers below
EB2-IC rough visa use estimation for FY 2012 that can be accounted upto 31st
December 2011 is
Worst case = 8000* + 4807 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007 [see previous article]
+ 9412 (up to Dec VB filings) = 22,219
Best case = 8000* + 3485 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007 [see previous article]
+ 9412 (up to Dec VB filings) = 20,897
*- Used in approving EB2-IC backlog pre July 2007, after movements for
October - November 2011 VB
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2012/01/visa-bulletin-feb
Statement in Visa bulletin clearly tells that so far (i.e. 6th January 2012)
upto third business day of January visa bulletin, rate of filings is very
low and hence in order to ensure that enough demand is available for USCIS
to process during spillover season for FY 2012, dates had moved rapidly.
Few things that can inferred from above statement is that filing upto
December Visa Bulletin from October 2011 are very low than what DOS wants as
an inventory for FY 2012. We initially expected cases upto December
bulletin cut-off date to be around 16000 but current trackitt trend is
pointing towards 9412 applications. (2200 I-485 filings from October Receipt
Data and 166 trackitt applications gives factor of 13. From October-
December 2011, trackitt has 724 pending cases, which converts into 724*13 =
9412 cases). This is too early to suggest that filings are low but we will
continue to monitor I-485 Receipt data and trackitt trend for next few days.
DOS bulletin clearly mentions that once the level of new filings or USCIS
processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the
movement of the cut-off. So we can be rest assured that atleast for the
next visa bulletin there will be no retrogression. Worst case it will stall.
Presently we feel dates will move ahead for next bulletin but slowly.
Expected movement can be anywhere from 2-5 months. Our attorney friend also
feels movement will continue until April 2012.
As per Mr. Oppenheim, "Readers are once again advised that an eventual need
to retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility." That
eventual need will be seen around May 2012 visa bulletin i.e. in April.
2012 Dates will retrogress at some point but level of retrogression is
difficult to determine without inventory data. Retrogression beyond December
2007 is not plausible. If demand continue to stay less, then June September
2008 could be considered as a high mark point for retrogression but for now
lets stick to March-June 2008 as cut-off dates for FY 2012 until we see
some more inventory numbers.
It was not clear from above analysis how annual visa use scenario looks like
if we consider that trackitt trend from October 2011-December 2011 is
resemblance of real demand. Please see numbers below
EB2-IC rough visa use estimation for FY 2012 that can be accounted upto 31st
December 2011 is
Worst case = 8000* + 4807 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007 [see previous article]
+ 9412 (up to Dec VB filings) = 22,219
Best case = 8000* + 3485 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007 [see previous article]
+ 9412 (up to Dec VB filings) = 20,897
*- Used in approving EB2-IC backlog pre July 2007, after movements for
October - November 2011 VB
