国际货币基金组织：中国经济将可持续、高质量发展

2023-02-04 05:02

国际货币基金组织（IMF）在与中国进行一项年度磋商后表示，如果政策行动适当，中国经济不仅将在今年出现反弹，而且可以实现可持续、高质量的发展。

China's economy is not only set to rebound this year but can achieve sustainable, high-quality development with proper policy moves, the International Monetary Fund said on Friday after an annual consultation with China.

图源：环球时报

IMF的专家强调，由于多方面的挑战仍然存在，中国需要避免过早收紧宏观经济政策，并加快开展关键的结构性改革。

Experts at the IMF stressed the need for China to avoid a premature tightening of macroeconomic policies and accelerate key structural reforms as multifaceted challenges remain.

他们在周五发布的《2022年第四条磋商工作人员报告》中发表上述言论。IMF工作人员小组在与中国官员就经济发展和政策进行讨论后编写了这份报告，讨论于11月结束。

They made the remarks in the Staff Report for the 2022 Article IV Consultation on Friday. An IMF staff team prepared the report following discussions with Chinese officials on economic developments and policies, which ended in November.

图源：视觉中国

“自去年年底以来，我们看到（中国）的人员流动性迅速改善，这将转化为私人消费的反弹，”IMF中国代表团副团长Joong Shik Kang在报告发布后的《中国日报》专访中表示。

"We have seen rapid improvement in mobility (in China) since late last year, which will translate into a rebound in private consumption," Joong Shik Kang, deputy mission chief for China at IMF's Asia and Pacific Department, told China Daily after the report was released.

基于此，IMF已将中国2023年的经济增长预测从10月份的4.4%上调至5.2%，他表示。

Based on this, the IMF has revised up China's growth forecast for 2023 to 5.2 percent, from 4.4 percent in October, Kang said.

“中国的经济复苏不仅对中国是好消息，对世界其他地区也是。”他说，IMF估计，中国经济增长每提高一个百分点，其他经济体的经济活动平均会上升0.3个百分点。

"The recovery is good news not only for China but also for the rest of the world," he said, as IMF estimates suggest that for every percentage point of higher growth in China, activity in other economies rises on average by 0.3 percentage point.

尽管如此，经济下行风险依然存在，包括全球复苏速度低于预期、房地产行业压力加剧，他说。

But downside risks around this outlook remain, including a slower-than-expected global recovery and deepening stress in the real estate sector, Kang said.

报告建议，需要采取进一步行动，增加资金支持、确保房地产项目完工，从而为市场化重组铺平道路。同时，应加快关键的结构性改革，以提升潜在增速，因为当前中国潜在经济增速正受到来自人口变化趋势和生产率增长放缓的负面影响。

The report suggested that further action is needed to promote market-based restructuring of the real estate sector.

报告称，预计到2027年，包括缩小国有企业和民营企业之间的生产率差距、提高退休年龄以及将财政资源向加强社会保障倾斜在内的一揽子改革可以使中国的实际GDP水平提高2.5%左右。

According to the report, a package of reforms that includes closing productivity gaps between State-owned enterprises and private companies, raising the retirement age and reorienting fiscal resources toward strengthening the social safety net can lift China's level of real GDP by around 2.5 percent by 2027.

这意味着，2023至2027年，中国平均GDP增速可达到4.75%，表明只要采取正确的政策，中国就“完全可以实现可持续、高质量的经济增长”，报告称。

This implies that the country's average GDP growth rate can be maintained at about 4.75 percent between 2023-27, indicating that sustainable, high-quality growth "is well within China's reach" with the right policies, the report said.

这份报告是中国和IMF合作的一部分。根据《基金组织协定》第四条，IMF 通常每年会与成员国进行双边讨论，以评估成员国经济状况并应对金融风险。

The report came in as part of the cooperation between China and the IMF. Under Article IV, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with its members to assess their economic health and address financial risks.

中国在IMF的份额为304.8亿特别提款权（约合413.7亿美元），占IMF总份额的6.4%，排名第三位，仅次于美国和日本。

China holds 30.48 billion special drawing rights, which is equivalent to $41.37 billion, as IMF member quotas. The SDR is a supplementary international reserve asset.

该份额决定了一个成员经济体向IMF出资的最高限额，是决定其在IMF决策中投票权的关键因素。

外交部表示，长期以来，中国同IMF保持良好合作。中国积极参与国际货币和金融规则制定以及IMF对有关成员国的贷款和援助，IMF通过年度磋商、高层访问、技术援助和培训等多种形式，为中国宏观经济管理和结构性改革提出大量有价值的政策建议，并培养专业人才。

While China has actively participated in the formulation of international currency, financial rules and IMF lending to member economies, the institution has provided a great number of suggestions for the country's macroeconomic management and structural reform, according to the Foreign Ministry.

记者：周兰序郑伊然赵焕新

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