欧洲旅游业 | 经济学人
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Tourism in Europe
欧洲旅游业
英文部分选自经济学人20230826期商业板块
Business | Too hot to handle
商业|欧洲旅游业
How climate change will hit holidaymaking
气候变化对度假的影响
Extreme weather will change where tourists go and when
极端天气将改变游客的旅行时间及目的地
“Arrived in bologna, Italy, today, now it’s off to Tuscany. The heatwave is spectacular here. If things continue like this, these holiday destinations will have no future in the long term. Climate change is destroying southern Europe. An era comes to an end.” This tweet in early July by Karl Lauterbach, Germany’s health minister, went down badly in Italy. The country’s minister for tourism, Daniela Santanchè, sourly retorted that she thanked Mr Lauterbach for picking Italy for his holiday, but the Italian government was well aware of climate change and that sustainability was one of the central elements of its strategy for managing tourism.
“今天，意大利博洛尼亚热浪来袭，马上就要轮到托斯卡纳了。这里烈日炎炎，令人瞠目结舌。如果今后的情况还是这样，这些度假胜地长期来看只会每况愈下。气候变化正在摧毁南欧，一个时代已经终结。”德国卫生部长卡尔·劳特巴赫（Karl Lauterbach）在7月初发布了这样一条推特，而意大利人对此说法不屑一顾。意大利旅游部长达妮埃拉·桑坦切（Daniela Santanchè）酸溜溜地反驳称她感谢劳特巴赫先生能够选择在意大利度假，但意大利政府十分了解气候变化，并且可持续发展也是意大利旅游业管理战略的一大核心要素。
The industry is not just an important contributor to Italy’s economy. Europe is the planet’s most visited region, welcoming 585m of the world’s 900m international travellers in 2022. On top of this, domestic holiday-makers outstripped foreigners in terms of nights spent in tourist accommodation in the eu. Little wonder then that the sector directly generates 5% of the eu’s gdp and by some estimates indirectly accounts for more than 10%. Some countries rely heavily on travellers’ contributions both direct and indirect, including Croatia (26% of gdp), Greece (18.5%), Spain (13.6%) and Italy (10%).
旅游业不仅对意大利经济起到重要推动作用。要知道，欧洲是全球游客最多的地区。2022年全球共有9亿国际游客，其中就有5.85亿在欧洲境内旅游。除此之外，就欧盟境内住宿的天数而言，本土游客其实已经超过了外来游客。难怪旅游业为欧盟地区国内生产总值直接贡献5%，更有机构预估其间接贡献达10%以上。旅游业对部分欧洲国家来说至关重要，既有直接也有间接影响，比如克罗地亚（占GDP 26%）、希腊（占GDP 18.5%）、西班牙（占GDP 13.6%）和意大利（占GDP 10%）。
Changes to the climate that lead to ever-wilder weather could deliver a nasty blow to the tourist industry. This year southern Europe has endured an abnormally turbulent summer. Extreme hot weather in Italy in July contributed to wildfires that ravaged Sicily as the temperature at one time climbed to 47°C in Palermo, the island’s capital. Farther north, hailstorms in Lombardy claimed several lives. Also in July Greek authorities had to evacuate tens of thousands of tourists from Rhodes and Corfu after wildfires engulfed those islands. After heatwaves scorched Spain over the summer, Tenerife battled fires that last week forced thousands to flee their homes. Heavy floods have deluged southern Austria, Croatia and Slovenia.
气候变化导致天气比以往更加极端无常，旅游业可能因此遭受沉重打击。南欧今年夏天的气候变化多端，十分反常。七月，意大利遭遇极端炎热天气，野火肆虐西西里岛，该岛首府巴勒莫的气温一度攀升至47摄氏度。往北，意大利伦巴第大区的冰雹夺走了数条人命。同在七月，野火席卷了希腊罗得岛和科孚岛，当局不得不组织数万名游客撤离。继夏季热浪炙烤全西班牙，特内里费岛上周又发生火灾，迫使数千人离开家园。奥地利南部、克罗地亚和斯洛文尼亚也遭遇了严重洪灾。
Despite the devastation, Italy’s tourism industry—and that of Europe as a whole—is set for a record summer this year as holidaymakers return in force after the travel restrictions of the pandemic. Few have cancelled trips despite the dangers that may await them. According to Demoskopika, a market researcher, 68m people will have taken a holiday in Italy this summer, with around half arriving from abroad. Tourist numbers this year may even surpass the record set in 2019, when 743m visitors arrived in European destinations from other countries. According to Germany’s tui, the world’s largest travel group, in spite of higher prices summer bookings were around 6% higher than a year ago.
虽然恶劣天气带来了严重破坏，但疫情过后，旅行限制解除，大批游客重返欧洲，意大利旅游业（以及欧洲整体旅游业）今年夏天仍胜券在握，要打破历史记录；即使旅行期间有可能遭遇恶劣天气，也少有游客取消旅行计划。市场研究机构Demoskopika称，今年夏天意大利预计接待6800万人，其中约半数来自意大利境外。2019年有7.43亿游客前往欧洲旅游，而今年的游客人数或可能打破当时的纪录。全球最大的旅游集团德国途易（TUI）称，尽管价格有所上涨，今年夏季的预订量仍比去年同期高出6%左右。
Can the rebound last if tourists are fearful of the effects of climate change in years to come? Harald Zeiss, an expert in sustainable tourism at Harz University of Applied Sciences in Wernigerode, speaks for many climate watchers when he says that Europe’s weather will become hotter and drier, and that extreme weather events will become even more likely in the future. Aside from the awful consequences for populations caught up in floods or fires, this also threatens the livelihoods of those who rely on income and employment from tourism in affected areas.
如果游客担心未来气候变化的影响，旅游业还能持续回暖吗？德国哈尔茨应用技术大学的可持续旅游专家哈拉尔德·蔡司（Harald Zeiss）的观点代表了众多气候观察人员的心声，他说欧洲的气候将变得更炎热干燥，未来极端天气发生的概率也会更高。不仅遭遇洪灾和火灾的人会处于水深火热之中，极端天气也会危及受灾地区那些靠旅游业谋生的人们。
The classic “all-inclusive” package holiday on the beaches of the Med will have a rough ride, predicts Mr Zeiss. He reckons that the prospects of oppressive heat will deter the elderly and those with children in particular. Torsten Kirstges, another tourism expert at Jade University of Applied Sciences in Wilhelmshaven, thinks that while wildfires remain sporadic travellers will continue to flock south, even in the hot summer months, at least for the next five years. Youngsters in particular still want to roast in the sun, says Mr Kirstges.
蔡司预测，地中海海滩传统的全包式度假套餐将面临艰难的挑战。他认为，预计会来临的酷热尤其会让老年以及带孩子的游客望而却步。德国威廉港耶拿应用技术大学的旅游专家托斯腾•克尔斯特斯（Torsten Kirstges）认为，至少在未来五年内，即使夏日炎炎、野火仍时有发生，但游客也依然会涌向南方。尤其是年轻人，克尔斯特斯说，他们酷爱日晒美黑。
The lure of the Mediterranean will probably endure as long as the alternatives do not look as enticing. Northern destinations, in particular the Baltic Sea, Germany, eastern Europe and Scandinavia, may see an increase in demand during the peak summer period. But these destinations cannot replace southern resorts because they are not equipped for mass tourism (which many don’t want anyway). For potential visitors the weather is too unpredictable in the summer. But travel trends do change, if slowly. In the 1950s the favourite holiday destination for Germans was a trip across the border to Austria. It was not before the mid-1980s that Spain took over. And experts agree that tourism in Europe in 30 years’ time will be different from what it is today.
除非其他旅游景区迎头赶上，否则地中海地区将独占鳌头。在夏日旅游旺季，前往北方地区旅游的需求可能有所增加，尤其像波罗的海、德国、东欧和斯堪的纳维亚地区。然而，这些地区的大众旅游配套设施并不完备，无法取代南方的度假胜地（不过很多人都不喜欢大众旅游）。对潜在游客而言，夏日的天气过于变幻莫测。不过，旅游趋势在变化，尽管变化很慢。上世纪50年代，德国人最喜爱的度假目的地是邻国奥地利，直到80年代中期才变成了西班牙。专家们一致认为，30年后欧洲旅游业的格局将发生变化。
The industry has joined in with wider promises by businesses to hit the targets of the Paris climate agreement by becoming net-zero emitters of carbon dioxide by 2050. tui, for instance, wants to be climate-neutral across its operations and supply chain by 2050. Yet such efforts by firms to mitigate the effects of global warming will have little overall impact. More importantly, tourism will need to adapt to climate change.
随着越来越多的旅游企业作出承诺，旅游业也加入了达成巴黎气候协定目标的行列，将在2050年前实现二氧化碳净零排放。例如，途易集团就希望到2050年前全面实现运营与供应链的气候中和。不过整体上看，企业为缓解气候变暖所做的努力并不会带来什么影响。更重要的是，旅游业需要适应气候变化。
In the short term, this will be a question of measures such as strict management of water resources where these are becoming increasingly scarce, early-warning systems for extreme weather events and an extension of the holiday seasons, says Thomas Ellerbeck, chief sustainability officer at tui. His company is, for instance, extending the booking season for Greece until November. Mr Kirstges thinks many more hotels in the Med will install air conditioning (fuelled by solar power), water coolers and the like. Tourists may adapt by going out in the mornings and evenings to avoid the midday furnace.
途易集团首席可持续发展官托马斯·埃勒贝克（Thomas Ellerbeck）表示，短期而言，适应气候变化将包括如下措施，比如在水资源日益稀缺的地区严格管理水资源、建立极端天气事件预警系统和延长旅游旺季的预订时间，例如，他的公司就已经将希腊游的预订时间延长到了11月）。克尔斯特斯认为，地中海地区安装太阳能空调和饮水冷却器等设施的酒店会越来越多。游客或许可以选择早晚出行，来避开正午高温时段。
Longer term, some switching from the golden sands of the Med to the beaches of the Baltic is inevitable. But there is a silver lining for the holidaymakers who will either discover the unexpected beauty of Baltic beaches or may go south at different times of the year. A shift by some tourists to the spring or autumn will help with the overcrowding which has become a such a nuisance for residents and those visitors eager to imbibe the culture of Dubrovnik, Venice, Barcelona or other marvels of southern Europe in relative peace.
从长远来看，一些打算去地中海金色海滩的游客会改变计划，前往波罗的海海滩，这是不可避免的。对他们而言（有些人甚至会到更南的地方），这不完全是坏事——他们或将前往波罗的海海滩欣赏意料之外的美景，或在一年当中的其他时间向南前往地中海。有的游客热衷于到杜布罗夫尼克、威尼斯、巴塞罗那或其他南欧旅游胜地，在一方宁静中去体验当地的文化，而景点人满为患对这些游客和当地居民来说的确是一大困扰。部分游客将旅游时间调整至春季或秋季，恰能帮助缓解这个问题。
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观点|评论|思考
本周感想
Alex，不务正业的理工男
很少在什么感想里会主动提到对“气候变化”有什么感受，可能因为这个话题太大，也可能这个话题不知从什么时候起每年都可以是热词，尤其对于口译学习者来说，这个话题好像更多存在于顶层设计者的讲稿中。但对我们每个普通人来说，生活中的感受都是实实在在的，就像是文中首段提到的推文一样，好比总会说“更热了”，或者新闻上看到的全球极端气候事件“更多了”。气候变化、全球变暖究竟给我们带来哪些影响，也不需要在这小小一隅多加论述了。只是不去看那些宏大的命题，不去探讨未来发展趋势，就着眼当下，我们是不是偶尔也会想“多我一个不多，少我一个不少”，“我又能改变什么呢”？就像看到日本排放核污水一样。
前段时间刚好看到一篇文章里的一段话深感触动，摘录几句在这里分享。“作为镶嵌在社会运转体系里的微笑一环，个体的力量确实无法直接带来系统性结构性的改变。但如果就这样缴械投降，主动放弃作为人的能动性，我们最终又如何诚实面对自己。”所以我们依然，要像从小就习得的那样“从我做起”，做一些力所能及的小事，作为消费者，作为内容创作者，又或是其他多元的身份，往环保的方向去，往可持续的方向去，去“重新思考衣食住行，重新定义自己的存在”。
我们都知道应该做什么，节能、环保、拒绝浪费，就从一件件小事开始坚持吧，“不为宏大命题，这关乎自我赋权。”
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