Redian新闻
>
Trump的popular vote民调首次超过Harris
avatar

Trump的popular vote民调首次超过Harris

A9C6E3
楼主 (北美华人网)
全美有大大小小几十个做poll的机构,RCP这个是取的平均值。当然Trump领先的也就不到1个点,不过按过去几十年民主党popular vote一直比共和党多的记录,这个还是比较值得关注的。 Republican nominee Donald Trump is narrowly leading Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris in aggregator RealClearPolling's average of national polls for the first time since August. https://www.newsweek.com/election-2024-donald-trump-edges-past-kamala-harris-major-poll-first-time-august-1975747
avatar
GavinNewsom
2 楼
avatar
Frank01
3 楼
A9C6E3 发表于 2024-10-28 11:28
全美有大大小小几十个做poll的机构,RCP这个是取的平均值。当然Trump领先的也就不到1个点,不过按过去几十年民主党popular vote一直比共和党多的记录,这个还是比较值得关注的。 Republican nominee Donald Trump is narrowly leading Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris in aggregator RealClearPolling's average of national polls for the first time since August. https://www.newsweek.com/election-2024-donald-trump-edges-past-kamala-harris-major-poll-first-time-august-1975747

呵呵,川粉们那么笃定Trump赢,就不需要到处鼓腮造谣了
avatar
buzhidao2000
4 楼
很多人都科普过:川普一伙搞了许多垃圾poll往RCP里注水,正如楼主自己所说:RCP的功能就是取所有poll的平均值(无论是什么来源)。
不过,这也无所谓了,我们相信川总稳了。川粉们赶快开香槟庆祝吧,躺平就好了,别再上蹿下跳的再来污染大家眼球了。
avatar
supersleeper
5 楼
川粉继续自嗨
trump采访时候自己说的,50完美元买一个poll,想要 MAGA支持率多高就有多高
不过要看清 MAGA这么做的目的:就是制造混乱,到时候真正投票 MAGA大败,可以用这些造假poll激活其base进行暴力屠杀
avatar
Jaelynleaf
6 楼
我真的不觉得川普赢定了。 相反,贺经理看起来,好像可能性更大了。
avatar
adorp
7 楼
呵呵,川粉们那么笃定Trump赢,就不需要到处鼓腮造谣了
Frank01 发表于 2024-10-28 12:19

你这偷渡客瞎叫唤啥,赶快珍惜没几天能在华人论坛上上蹿下跳的日子吧,然后就等着川普上台将你等非法移民遣返回中国!从此,华人论坛恢复往日的安宁、祥和!
avatar
buzhidao2000
8 楼
Jaelynleaf 发表于 2024-10-28 12:30
我真的不觉得川普赢定了。 相反,贺经理看起来,好像可能性更大了。

你不用那么谦虚,我们都觉得川普稳了。你们可以弹冠相庆,get a life,不要再天天在这里瞎叫唤了。



avatar
mdhe
9 楼
Great, MAGA!!!!!
avatar
ezf
10 楼
白川粉发帖表达他们的心声:黄川粉离开美国去让亚洲再次伟大。
avatar
surezzz
11 楼
CNN到最后一周装不下去啦?
avatar
Silverwing
12 楼
冲民调的原因是要为选举后的暴动奠定理论支持
avatar
yc0001
13 楼
我觉得华人上客观来看有四种人,第一种是有投票权的恨川普说中国病毒的华人,第二种是认为川普能改变极左的投川普的华人,第三种是吃福利的人,第四种是和美国没啥直接关系从国内上来的人。这四种人不可能说服对立方,都在找理由为自己打气。
avatar
seekingalpha
14 楼

川粉看得也是 newsweek?
Vice President Kamala Harris has expanded her lead over Republican nominee and former president Donald Trump in two national polls.
With just over a week to go until Election Day, the latest ABC News/Ipsos and Big Village polls gave Harris a slightly bigger lead than their surveys earlier in October.
The latest ABC News/Ipsos poll has Harris leading by four points among likely voters, with 51 percent support compared to Trump's 47 percent. Her lead is smaller among all registered voters, at 49 percent to Trump's 47 percent.
Meanwhile, the most recent Big Village survey gave Harris an almost seven-point lead over Trump.
The survey found 51.6 percent of likely voters were backing Harris, while 45 percent were supporting Trump. Among registered voters, Harris was almost six points ahead, with 49 percent support compared to Trump's 43.2 percent.
Costas Panagopoulos, a professor of political science at Northeastern University, told Newsweek that national polls "basically show a tight race, generally within the margin of error" and battleground polls "look similar."
He said: "We really don't know which candidate is truly ahead. Given voting patterns across the country, a comfortable margin in the national popular vote would help Harris clinch a win in the Electoral College, but victory may still be possible even with a closer split."
Grant Davis Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University, told Newsweek that the race is "still really tight, and it's anyone's guess as to the outcome."
"A lot still depends on how these survey results have been weighted, and with the coalitions shifting and newer groups of voters coming into the system, those weights are moving targets. The battleground states are still the key, and those are all tight."
He added: "At this point, it comes down to turnout. Republicans have increasingly embraced early voting, and that may help them slightly. Absent some huge development in either campaign, which is hard to imagine given everything we've already seen and heard, the persuasion part of the campaign is over."
avatar
Suiyuejinghai
15 楼
A9C6E3 发表于 2024-10-28 11:28
全美有大大小小几十个做poll的机构,RCP这个是取的平均值。当然Trump领先的也就不到1个点,不过按过去几十年民主党popular vote一直比共和党多的记录,这个还是比较值得关注的。 Republican nominee Donald Trump is narrowly leading Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris in aggregator RealClearPolling's average of national polls for the first time since August. https://www.newsweek.com/election-2024-donald-trump-edges-past-kamala-harris-major-poll-first-time-august-1975747

你查一查RCP是谁的产业,就知道是极右的。
avatar
Halahi
16 楼
现在鬼才相信polls 。有点脑子的为了防止电信诈骗,从来都不接陌生电话,也不会网上做这些survey ,因为都要名字电话等信息。我认识的有投票权的人,即使收到各种短信邮件轰炸,没有一个人会去参加这些 polls
沉默的大多数人会推翻这些没用的rigged polls
avatar
paustin
17 楼
A9C6E3 发表于 2024-10-28 11:28
全美有大大小小几十个做poll的机构,RCP这个是取的平均值。当然Trump领先的也就不到1个点,不过按过去几十年民主党popular vote一直比共和党多的记录,这个还是比较值得关注的。 Republican nominee Donald Trump is narrowly leading Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris in aggregator RealClearPolling's average of national polls for the first time since August. https://www.newsweek.com/election-2024-donald-trump-edges-past-kamala-harris-major-poll-first-time-august-1975747

https://betting.betfair.com/betfair-predicts/us-trackers/ 赶紧买啊,没钱我借你们付利息就好
avatar
tuer
18 楼
哎我老板也说trump要赢了,反正我都投完了,看着办吧以后。
avatar
h2o.work
19 楼
tuer 发表于 2024-10-28 15:09
哎我老板也说trump要赢了,反正我都投完了,看着办吧以后。

有这种感觉。最近邮箱给哈里斯竞选团队一天n封邮件轰炸,感觉选情告急。
avatar
lanacustom
20 楼
猪党开始烧投票箱了 so desperate
avatar
lanacustom
21 楼
avatar
Shooff
22 楼
回复 11楼 Silverwing 的帖子
賛同。川肯定会在选举当晚擅自公布胜选。然后他就可以有理由搞暴动。千万理由只有一个:他怕死会坐牢!
相关阅读
logo
联系我们隐私协议©2024 redian.news
Redian新闻
Redian.news刊载任何文章,不代表同意其说法或描述,仅为提供更多信息,也不构成任何建议。文章信息的合法性及真实性由其作者负责,与Redian.news及其运营公司无关。欢迎投稿,如发现稿件侵权,或作者不愿在本网发表文章,请版权拥有者通知本网处理。