关于美国与加拿大房地产与经济的讨论整理-CND房地产线

CND房地产线关于美国与加拿大房地产与经济的讨论整理

（2009年7月13日至7月24日）

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评论者：beijing7750 2009-07-13 11:58

如山’s real life story is very inspirational to many CNDers, I am one of them.

I am practice 如山’s core concept now - buying properties at deep discount (30% after fix) and then re-fi. I will report the results once the re-fi is completed.
Please share your success and frustration.

如山回应

恭喜北京7750。我知道你这小子大有希望。 但现在唯一想提醒你的是，慢慢来，不要过度使用财务杠杆。 现在的环境要特别小心。

评论者：beijing7750 2009-07-19 00:59

Here is a typical case. One 3 bed 2 bath house, bought at about $150K (after all repaires). All expense (PITI) is about $1000, rean is $1600, cash flow $600 per month. Even the house price continues to fall (I do not think so in my area), I have nothing to worry (cash on cash return 20%).

Three years, same house sold for about $500k. The PITI would be $3000 (two time the rent).

the market tends to go extrem, that's the exemple of both.

如山回应

Good job!恭喜!!!
It sounds a great deal!

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评论者：Tom007（来自加拿大） 2009-07-20 12:03

在此线上从如山和众大虾学到很多知识。我有个疑问，美国房市已连跌数年，贷款利率已是历史最低，为什么美国房市还不好转？加国房市总体上已经连涨近十年，只是去年下半年到今年4月份全球金融危机最恐慌时房市连跌数月而已（其中还包括季节性淡季因素）。4月5月间，贷款利率降到历史最低后，引发了大量的首次购房者入市，加国房市马上又火起来了。与去年同期相比，全国6月房屋销量猛增17.9%，大多伦多地区更是飚升27%，成交量创历史记录，平均售价也上涨2%。今天出来的报告说，与去年同期相比，7月份前2个星期，大多伦多地区销量又升27%，平均售价又上涨4%，继续火爆，抢Offer的事情几乎每天在发生，很多性价比较好的房子都是在两三天被抢走。我奇怪的是，美国房市为什么还不是不行？居然现在还能用15万买三年前值50万的房子？

贷款利率，经济状况，失业率等情况，美加应该是差不多呀，如山或哪位大虾能解惑？谢了先。

评论者：beijing7750 2009-07-20 18:17

Can you give us an example ? Price, rent of a house in 大多伦多地区? Rent has to be comparable (house to house, condo to condo).

评论者：Tom007

大多伦多地区Rent/Lease a house的市场好象很小，估计租一个average house一个月要3000多元。租condo的市场大些。据《多伦多星报》报道，在市中心，两睡房单位（无车位）由1750元起至2100元，三睡房单位平均租金为3200元。

作为比较，市中心（离多伦多大学很近）一个新condo大楼，一个2卧2卫927尺单位，叫529K。同一地区，一个较旧的condo大楼里一个2卧2卫近1000尺单位，叫“超值价43万余”。

评论者：beijing7750

The price and rent looks like most areas of California costal areas. Let’s look at the $400K condo. To own this condo, the monthly carrying cost is about $2000 (PITI, 5% rate). If the average house income is below $6000 (assumption: 33% income goes to house), I think this is over heated market. At this price, it is ok for primary residence. For investor, it is very risky.

评论者：beijing7750 2009-07-20 18:01

House prices depend on many factors, such as historic value (SF bay area always has higher price than most other areas), employment rate, P/E ratio (price/rent ratio), etc. I prefer to use P/E or P/R predict house price. When comparing to historic P/E value, if renting is much cheaper than owning, this means house is over priced. If owning is much cheaper than renting, that means house is under priced – this is also the case I described in previous poster. I already see multiple offers in areas when owning is much cheaper than renting, last week there was a house with 25 offers in 3 days. Market is efficient in long term not short term.

This applys in US market ONLY.

————如山回应：“士别三日，当刮目相看”。看来你老兄比我更像专家啦 。可喜！

如山回应

007高人好！
我没这个预测能力。Venus是这方面专家。看她是否愿意出来说几句吧。

评论者：Tom007

如山好！谢谢你在此线辛苦奉献。

西楼女神在假先知那条线上说到房事: 一个说房市在recovering，一个说becoming worse. 咱们听谁的？ 

Venus... 2009-07-21 10:24

专家可不敢说, 对加拿大经济不了解. 前阵见到几篇文章都主张把美元换成加元以保值, 没时间细琢磨这事儿, 但几位作者既然力挺加元, 应该对加的经济有很强的信心吧? 好象大家对加拿大的银行系统评价比较高.

房市呢, 有机会找找本地历史平均线, 房价/ 房租, 房价/工资, 再者, 我觉得新移民的涌入对加拿大的影响比美国大.

评论者：Tom007 2009-07-21 10:35

我知道的美加房市的显著区别是，在美国，Bank-owned房子太多太多，银行不得不低价抛售；而在加国，Bank-owned房子相对很少，对市场冲击就小。可是，在美国房市还没好转，甚至还可能恶化时，仅仅因为加国Bank-owned房子很少，就足以使加国房市逆美国房市而行，5/6/7月连续火爆并创历史记录？

评论者：Tom007 2009-07-21 10:54

加拿大的银行系统很保守，政府对他们有很多限制，对他们的保护也很多。比如，房屋抵押贷款，如果你家房子市值已低于贷款余额，你不能象在美国那样把房子甩给银行，拍屁股走人了事。在这里，银行有权利追溯你家所有的Asset（动产不动产）来偿还欠银行的钱。所以在这里，不到万不得已，一般不把房子交给银行。

"新移民的涌入对加拿大的影响比美国大" ---的确如此. 每年近10万新移民涌入大多伦多地区，很厉害。

评论者：Venus... 2009-07-21 12:06

加国银行比美国同行聪明.

加拿大和美国不一样, 就是美国自己每个地区也不一样. 是不是泡沫, 也不好单从数据的绝对值看, 要和当地历史平均值比. Tom自己要买房吗? 如果美元衰退, 加元坚挺, 加上通货膨胀(假设发生的话), 没准儿是件好买卖呢. (先声明赔了不负责任啊)

评论者：Tom007 2009-07-21 14:16

我看未必是“加国银行比美国同行聪明”，而是政府对他们管制很多很保守。很多人一直说这个样子加国银行怎么能与美国同行竞争？也许正是因为加国银行无法与美国同行竞争，加国政府才对银行业设置诸多条条框框，对加国银行加以保护。这次危机对美国金融业来说是灾难，可是对加国银行冲击并不大。所以加国保守党总理Harper沾沾自喜地说，在发达国家中，加国的情况是最好的，可能是最快走出危机的发达国家。

你不知道俺们这嘎嗒的银对你们多嫉妒呢　---　你们现在还能花不到三年前一半的价钱买房子，而俺们这嘎嗒房价还一个劲儿地往上串，很多人都在想去美国买房子。

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评论者：Tom007 2009-07-20 12:18

中国楼市只涨不跌的秘密 (google this subject)

摘录几段：

第一次买房时，虽然我有能力一次性付清全款，但我还是不愿意那么多的现金被房子压死。那时，正流行“零首付”，于是，我一分钱没花，贷款18万买了房（贷款期限为一年）。

一年期满，要还房款和利息了。也不知道是我幸运呢？还是我倒霉！那时，我的资金被一笔业务占用了。为了业务，我不仅还不起房款不说，还得另外新增贷款。迫不得已，我找老关系——银行的信贷部经理沟兑。当我吞吞吐吐的把“延期还房款并另外新增贷款”的要求说出来后，没想到，信贷经理却诡秘的一笑，非常爽快的答应了。

信贷经理给我出的主意很简单：让我老婆，以两倍的价格，贷款买我的房子，贷款期限也是一年。

“两倍的贷款，那就是两倍的利息啊！你这不是变着方的剥削我吗？”我还没有反应过来。

“如果到时，你不还款呢？”信贷经理很镇定。

“啊......”

“被银行收房，没有什么大不了的！关键是除去税费后，我还凭空白得了17万。不，这17万我可不能一个人得，我至少要分给他5万。”很快，我反应过来。于是，我对信贷经理会心的一笑......

这，就是我第一次买房的经历。

我后来的买房经历都与此类似，也就是：坚决的不掏一分钱，全部用银行的贷款买房子；然后，如果遇见不明真象的投资者（说是投资者，其实是傻帽）买房，那就高价卖给他。如果一直没有投资者买房，那就不断的把自己的房子加价转贷给自己，不断的用银行的钱来还银行的债。

此文所述情形，在美国有吗？以如山的经验，如果去中国，每年赚个数亿，那还不是易如反掌？

评论者：西楼 2009-07-20 12:26

内外勾结，坑害银行。很多年前就这样。不过，那时好像得找一个不相干的第三者高价贷款买进，这样自己的信誉不成问题。

如山回应

哈哈哈。美国有这情况。不过那是准备去坐牢的干活。

咱要是在中国说不定也这么干。不过现在在这里嘛，已经被这里“洗脑”啦 。不会再跑去中国干这事了，就算有这能力。

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评论者：Venus... 2009-07-21 12:38

Sorry for typing in English. Just want to throw out what’s on my mind. The most important question we’re facing right now is, deflation or inflation?

Bernanke is hellbent on reflating. Back in 2003 he said in his speech that when everything else failed, the central bank should set a nominal price level target (instead of inflation rate target). This is similar to what Paul Krugman said before. To create inflation expectation in a deflationary environment, everybody has to believe that central banks will print money like no tomorrow and inflation is immediate.

Today Bernanke said they have an exit strategy. Does he want people to believe his words? I know I don’t. If everybody believes what Bernanke says, it’s self-defeating the recent efforts by Fed. If Bernanke is to succeed, we will have massive inflation. But then, will Bernanke get reappointed? What if US$$ collapsed before the price level target is hit? Political anger will be boiling.

What bothers me is, what about wages? I just don’t see how wage will improve, despite the swing in commodity prices. I might be off the topic here, but I actually think this is the paramount question for investment. Since obviously there is no clear answer, everything we do, buying, or sitting on hands, is a gamble.

评论者：Tom007 2009-07-21 14:24

从去年年底开始，很多人都认为美元要大贬值，高通涨时代就要来了。结果到现在还没来。

还有，在高通涨时代，“房价会大涨”是定论吗？如果在高通涨时代，贷款利率飞升，不是会有很多人无法还贷而被迫卖房子，从而使房价往下走吗？

评论者：Venus... 2009-07-21 14:58

Tom007:
从去年年底开始，很多人都认为美元要大贬值，高通涨时代就要来了。结果到现在还没来。
>> 半年不足以说明问题.

还有，在高通涨时代，“房价会大涨”是定论吗？如果在高通涨时代，贷款利率飞升，不是会有很多人无法还贷而被迫卖房子，从而使房价往下走吗？
>> 这是可能性之一. 更准确的说法是新购房者无力承担高利率, 是demand 下降. (因为现有住房者已经锁住利率, 假设不搬家的话.)

你不知道俺们这嘎嗒的银对你们多嫉妒呢　---　你们现在还能花不到三年前一半的价钱买房子，
>> 少数泡沫地区是这样. 但中高档房, 即使在泡沫地区大概也没降到这么多. 房价近两年内还会下滑.

而俺们这嘎嗒房价还一个劲儿地往上串，很多人都在想去美国买房子。
>> 又一个证据房市还没到底.(Contrarian).

我现在也想不清楚. 可是, 从解决问题的角度来看, 美国要么赖账, 要末就通货膨胀, 没有其他方法来解决债务问题. 单靠经济增长没戏. 现在所有的措施无非是拖延时间.美国今年一年的财政赤字可是1.8 trillion 啊.

通货膨胀是联储希望看到的. 能不能做到, 那是另外一回事儿. 有不少人认为联储没这个能力. 就目前来看, 所有数据指向信用紧缩(也就是通货紧缩, 和commodity 价格上涨是两个概念).

评论者：Speculator

never say never, rewind just a decade to the Clinton years, high grow plus high tax rate resulted in a big surplus, under a democratic president! so it can be done...

评论者：Tom007 2009-07-21 10:10

搬一篇支持女神的文章，有请如山西楼女神等大虾的高见。

抵押收回房数量巨大 美房市或再恶化
来源：英国《金融时报》

银行问题的根源仍然在于砖头和水泥。随着失业率不断攀升，住宅市场的困境出现了新的变化。尽管今年年初当局大面积叫停抵押收回，并且出台了声势浩大的贷款条款修改计划，2009年上半年美国丧失住房抵押品赎回权案例仍高达150万起，与预期相符。事实上，随着6月份连续第四个月逾30万所房产收到丧失赎回权通知——这种现象是首次出现——美国住宅市场状况可能正在再度恶化。

　　新一波案例的分布更为分散，这至少表明，居住小区日渐衰败对房价的传导作用有所减小。由于丧失抵押品赎回权是由经济衰退、而非单纯的疯狂贷款所致，这些案例在爱达荷州、犹他州及伊利诺斯州等地正在增多。而对于银行来说，所有这一切都意味着，更多房产将被归到其资产负债表上的所谓“其它所持房产 ”(other real-estate owned, 简称OREO)项下。跟踪丧失抵押品赎回权案例的RealtyTrac表示，在所有被收回的房产中，有大约一半重归银行所有。就那些进入拍卖程序的房产而言，由于银行设定的（往往不现实的）底价无法引起买家的兴趣，逾五分之四的竞拍房产最终留在了银行名下。

　　成为地产大亨的地方银行下一步怎么办呢？视情况而定。某些地方监管机构在估值方面给予了银行更大的灵活性。瑞信(Credit Suisse)称，OREO亏损额继去年第四季度大幅飙升后，在今年头3个月有所下降，是因为一些持有大量OREO资产的银行在去年年底进行了大规模的资产清算。当时， OREO余额逐渐占到银行有形普通股权益的20%，可能迫使监管机构采取了行动。

　　瑞信预计，理论上讲，亏损会滞后违约3至4个季度出现，有鉴于此，OREO亏损额将于2011年达到峰值，并在2013年前居高不下。因此，在未来很长一段时间里，我们将无法回避过去的罪孽。

评论者：Venus... 2009-07-21 15:02

The infamous chart. The red was added by a blogger for US market.

Has anyone heard "sell before it's too late?" at weekend parties? At least I haven't.

评论者：panyca 2009-07-21 15:32

我也在纳闷。据说经济学家共识是缓慢复苏今年会开始。这失业率高企的复苏是咋回事呢？这金融系统的问题，bail-out一下就解决了？有什么制度化的东东保证CDO之类的人为泡沫不再发生？在金融界干活的给说说？制造业的结构性转型就算完了？阵痛过去了？

我倒是又捞了一个白菜房。我觉得低收入人群mobility低，接下来10年内买房不易，可能会长期租房。这房子的P/R（monthly rent at 80%market)远低于50，哪怕空置率算50%，都不会亏。就是空它10年也陪得起，所以买了。转手交给物业公司管, 免得烦心。

正在犹豫的是一快完工的新房，2900尺，1/3原价。不知道谁会花$2000租房，而不乘机买房？新近default过的专业人士？如山　等行家给说说？

你说的对，这只是可能性之一，而且你说的更准确些，是demand 下降。不过，少数选择浮动利率（未转成固定利率）的人还贷会困难了。另外，加国固定利率最长是10年（利率较高），最普遍的是5年固定（利率较低），不能象你们那样能锁住利率30年。

那么另一种可能性呢？在高通涨时代，恐怕　Cash is not king　了吧？多数人很自然地会想到，买房买地保值。

前一种可能性使使房价往下走，后一种可能性使使房价往上走。如果两种可能性都存在，那么在高通涨时代，“房价会大涨”就不一定了。哪种可能性更大呢？还有其它可能吗？

评论者：panyca 2009-07-21 15:50

That's why I am trying to make my equity half in stock market, half in real estate, and half in US$, half in CA$, and a minor 5% in RMB...

Any other ways to diversify risk exposure? I take comfort in the thought that the worse scenario is we still have another 20% to go on the down side?

评论者：Tom007

不明白你的这个结论“又一个证据房市还没到底”，Why?

"很多人都在想去美国买房子" --> "又一个证据房市还没到底"? Can you please educate me?

评论者：panyca

The bottom is here when everybody is too scared to buy...

When "很多人都在想去美国买房子", greed is not completely trumped by fear...

However, few can grab the bottom at the exact moment. As long as the downside is less than upside, I will edge in gradually.

评论者：Venus...

准确地说, 阵痛还没开始. 前面是false labor

美国的贸易赤字照目前的速度减下去, 全球的贸易结构就得大洗牌. 金融系统的原有的结构性危机仍然没变, (暂不提toxic assets still on the balance sheets hidden by mark to fantasy accounting).

29 年之后, 证券法经过几年的酝酿才出台. 金融改革会是今后五到十年的重点.

评论者：Tom007

panyca 写道:
The bottom is here when everybody is too scared to buy...
——[True, and I agree. And even in this scenario when everybody is too scared to buy, there are always smart people like 如山, 潘教, and so many CNDers, keep buying, and even people from Canada "很多人都在想去美国买房子" --- at the bottom]

When "很多人都在想去美国买房子", greed is not completely trumped by fear...
——[But "很多人都在想去美国买房子" is not necessarily the opposite of everybody is too scared to buy, right? So how this can prove that "又一个证据房市还没到底" ?]

评论者：Venus...

由 Tom007 于 09-07-21 15:43

少数选择浮动利率（未转成固定利率）的人还贷会困难了。
>> 这类人咎由自取.

另外，加国固定利率最长是10年（利率较高），最普遍的是5年固定（利率较低），不能象你们那样能锁住利率30年。
>> 你们那里允许零首付吗? 其实这种做法保护了普通购房者和银行双方, 防止投机过热.


那么另一种可能性呢？在高通涨时代，恐怕　Cash is not king　了吧？多数人很自然地会想到，买房买地保值。
>> 我非常担心的另一件事是房产税上调. 当房产税过重的时候, 拥有房产就象烫手山芋了.

潘教连续找到这么便宜的房子, 看来密执根受打击不小. 当地的失业率很高吗?

居民房屋的周期比别的商品市场长. 进入低谷后不会马上反弹. 我自己的猜想是在失业率下降之前房市不会触底. 有个调查问卷显示, 只有 10% 左右的资不抵债的(underwater)房主会主动选择弃房, 其他大部分人只要能撑下去, 还会接着还贷款. 这就是房屋过剩很难在短期内消化的原因. 商品房表现出来的行为就大不一样了. 虽然商品房刚刚开始下跌, 跌的势头已经远超居民房.

评论者：panyca

Oh, yeah, Michigan has the highest unemployment rate in the country. However, I do believe Michigan is near the bottom, if not at the bottom. It was in one-state recession way before the country due to the decline of auto- and manufacturing sectors. I don't think the housing market here will recover in the next year or two. I am bracing for a long long winter. My horizon is 10 year +.

Maybe you should check MIchigan out?

评论者：Venus...

散布点悲观论调. 刚刚看到的文章, 转贴一下. 前面曾经提到过, 不过大家那时都觉得不可能. 希望潘教不在Genesee County.

US cities may have to be bulldozed in order to survive


The government looking at expanding a pioneering scheme in Flint, one of the poorest US cities, which involves razing entire districts and returning the land to nature.

Local politicians believe the city must contract by as much as 40 per cent, concentrating the dwindling population and local services into a more viable area.

The radical experiment is the brainchild of Dan Kildee, treasurer of Genesee County, which includes Flint.

Having outlined his strategy to Barack Obama during the election campaign, Mr Kildee has now been approached by the US government and a group of charities who want him to apply what he has learnt to the rest of the country.

Mr Kildee said he will concentrate on 50 cities, identified in a recent study by the Brookings Institution, an influential Washington think-tank, as potentially needing to shrink substantially to cope with their declining fortunes.

Most are former industrial cities in the "rust belt" of America's Mid-West and North East. They include Detroit, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Memphis.

In Detroit, shattered by the woes of the US car industry, there are already plans to split it into a collection of small urban centres separated from each other by countryside.

"The real question is not whether these cities shrink – we're all shrinking – but whether we let it happen in a destructive or sustainable way," said Mr Kildee. "Decline is a fact of life in Flint. Resisting it is like resisting gravity."

评论者：Tom007

Venus,

How about the housing market? Is it improving? You still think the housing price in the U.S. has two years to decline?


Today's/Yesterday's news:

Home Resales in U.S. Increased More Than Forecast

July 23 (Bloomberg) -- Home resales in the U.S. rose in June for a third consecutive month, spurred by tax incentives, lower borrowing costs and foreclosure-driven declines in prices.

Purchases climbed 3.6 percent to an annual rate of 4.89 million, stronger than forecast and the highest level since October, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. Median prices fell 15 percent.

The gain in sales confirms Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s remarks this week that the worst housing slump in eight decades appears to be moderating.
......
BTW, as you may already know, the Canadian Central Bank has declared that Canadian economy will end the recession this quarter and will increase by 3% next year.

Tom,

Really there isn’t anything changed. The pace of decline is slowing, it does not mean the price has stopped declining, or the price will bounce up sharply, or resume 4% annual appreciation rate.

Soon in NAR news you will see the median price rising. It will not be caused by the bounce in housing market, but the changes in ‘mixes’ of the houses sold. Right now 30-40% sales are distressed sales, and those distressed sales mainly are low end houses. Later on this year the distressed sales will be higher range houses, mid-to-high level houses, they will pull up the mean price. You might even continue to see the number improvement, since distressed sales will taper off two years later and ‘normal sales’ will dominate. But be forewarned, these ‘normal sales’ will be nowhere near the level of 2006.

I don’t know much about Canada. Good for you. US is a different story. Other than Obama’s economic advisor, is there anyone predicting 3% of GDP for US next year?

评论者：Tom007

Thanks for your explanation, Venus. It makes good sense.

However, when things do happen as you described here, they will likely be interpreted as improving and encouraging, and will attract more people into buying, perhaps at higher prices than what Rushan, panca, etc, are paying now.

PurestCrystalClear 2009-07-24 13:24

The housing market is improving. My sister finally sold her house after over 1 year on the market. But the selling price is 26% lower than what she paid 4 years ago.

评论者：Venus...

Can you share a bit more details on house price range and roughly which region? Thanks a lot,

PurestCrystalClear

Midwest. Bought 225K 4 years ago, sold 165K. She changed job over a year ago, and the house has been vacant since. She just thought to rent the house two weeks ago.

Can you share a bit more details on house price range and roughly which region? Thanks a lot,

评论者：Venus...

Tom,

Really there isn’t anything changed. The pace of decline is slowing, it does not mean the price has stopped declining, or the price will bounce up sharply, or resume 4% annual appreciation rate.

Soon in NAR news you will see the median price rising. It will not be caused by the bounce in housing market, but the changes in ‘mixes’ of the houses sold. Right now 30-40% sales are distressed sales, and those distressed sales mainly are low end houses. Later on this year the distressed sales will be higher range houses, mid-to-high level houses, they will pull up the mean price. You might even continue to see the number improvement, since distressed sales will taper off two years later and ‘normal sales’ will dominate. But be forewarned, these ‘normal sales’ will be nowhere near the level of 2006.

I don’t know much about Canada. Good for you. US is a different story. Other than Obama’s economic advisor, is there anyone predicting 3% of GDP for US next year?

Thanks for your explanation, Venus. It makes good sense.

Tom007

However, when things do happen as you described here, they will likely be interpreted as improving and encouraging, and will attract more people into buying, perhaps at higher prices than what Rushan, panca, etc, are paying now.

Putongren 2009-07-24 19:04

Those statistics have to always be viewed with a grain of salt. What improvement should those who play in the real estate market use? I'd say none of those statistics. You have to think about this, if I buy a house today, can I sell it for a better price without major improvement? If the answer is year, then you have a price appreciation. The only statistics supposed to answer this question is the Case/Scheiling (spelling?) index. But the calculation of that index is a black box. We don't how they derive their numbers. It has to be derived because you really don't have many houses sold twice in two years, let alone in two months.

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如山回应

谢谢女神、007高人、潘教、思索者、北京7750、PurestCrystalClear 、putongren等人非常有意义的讨论和信息。如山受益匪浅。希望陆续看到讨论。作为回报，本人将于3天内贴出一篇关于房地产趋势与对策的一点看法。