安谋上市可能会重振IPO市场

《经济学人·商论》2023-09-01

Arm’s flotation could revive the market for IPOs

NO MATTER HOW wild the party, it is a rare hangover that lingers into its second year. Yet after a record-smashing rave in 2021, investors in initial public offerings (IPOs) are still nursing sore heads. Over the course of a year-long binge, they ploughed some $600bn into stockmarket listings around the world in 2021, according to Dealogic, a data firm. That is more than double the figure for 2007, in the mad gallop preceding the financial crisis, and nearly triple that for 2000, as the dotcom bubble swelled. But then soaring inflation, the end of cheap money and cratering markets put paid to the celebrations. In some places flotations all but disappeared: proceeds from American IPOs in 2022 fell by more than 90% compared with the previous year. So far in 2023, the sombre mood has continued (see chart).
无论狂欢有多疯狂，宿醉都很难持续到第二年。然而，在经历了2021年鼎盛的狂欢后，IPO的投资者们仍然头痛未消。数据公司Dealogic称，在长达一年的狂欢中，2021年投资者为全球IPO投入了约6000亿美元。这一数字是2007年金融危机前股市狂奔时的两倍多，也是2000年互联网泡沫膨胀时的近三倍。但随后飙升的通胀、廉价资金的终结以及股市的暴跌让IPO庆典戛然而止。有些地方几乎不再有新公司上市：2022年美国IPO融资同比下降了90%以上。今年至今，阴郁情绪仍在继续（见图表）。

It is not just Arm. Notwithstanding an August wobble, stockmarkets have been rising for almost a year: the S&P 500 index of large American firms is up by 24% from a trough in October. MSCI’s broadest index of global stocks has also risen by 24%. Such a bull run offers inevitable temptations to the bosses of private firms. With prices having risen so much, perhaps now is the time to sell a chunk of the company’s shares to public investors and get a healthy slug of capital in return.
准备上市的不止安谋一家。尽管股市在8月出现波动，但已经持续上涨了将近一年：集合美国大型公司的标普500指数从去年10月的低谷上涨了24%；MSCI覆盖最广泛的全球股票指数也上涨了24%。这样的牛市必然会对非上市公司的老板们产生诱惑。股价上涨了这么多，也许现在是时候向公众投资者出售一批公司股票，换回一笔可观的资本了。..... ...

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