双语 | Will China’s economy ever overtake America’s?

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2023-09-25 09:09

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《经济学人·商论》2022-09-22

Will China’s economy ever overtake America’s?

The Economist explains
学人解惑

Will China’s economy ever overtake America’s?
中国经济会超越美国吗？

Some economists think not
有些经济学家认为不会

CHINA WAS once, centuries ago, the world’s biggest economy. Many analysts expect it to regain that distinction in due course. But a host of difficulties besetting the Asian giant, some of which are self-inflicted, will delay the day it overtakes America to return to pole position. A growing number of economists now think that day may never arrive.
几个世纪前，中国是世界上最大的经济体。许多分析人士预计它有一天会重拾这一殊荣。但是种种困难侵扰着这个亚洲巨人——有些是它自己造成的——将推迟它超越美国重回这一地位的时日。现在，越来越多的经济学家认为这一天可能永远不会到来。

China’s population is over four times bigger than America’s. Its economy could therefore surpass America’s in scale long before it matches it in sophistication. Its GDP per person needs to reach only a quarter of America’s for its total GDP to become the biggest in the world. By one measure, China has already achieved that modest feat. Its GDP overtook America’s in 2016 when translated into dollars at “purchasing-power parity”, a method that tries to tally up the goods and services in each country using the same international prices.
中国的人口是美国的四倍多。因此，中国的经济在规模上超过美国可能要远早于它在成熟完善度上匹敌美国。中国的人均GDP只要达到美国的四分之一，其GDP总量就能成为世界第一。按一项标准衡量，中国已经达成了这个不算很大的壮举。如果按“购买力平价”（试图用相同的国际价格加总计算各国的商品和服务）换算成美元，那么在2016年中国的GDP就超过了美国。

But China’s GDP still lags far behind America’s when converted into dollars using the more familiar exchange rates that prevail in the currency markets. It reached $17.7trn in 2021 compared with America’s $23trn.
但是，如果用我们更熟悉的货币市场汇率来换算成美元，那么中国的GDP仍然远远落后于美国。中国的GDP在2021年达到17.7万亿美元，而美国为23万亿美元。... ...

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