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美国众议院总算有了议长 | 经济学人

美国众议院总算有了议长 | 经济学人

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写在前面


思维导图作者:

SK,程序媛,愿赤子之心永存


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精读|翻译|词组

United States | Speak now

美国|开议

英文部分选自经济学人20231028期美国板块

United States | Speak now

美国|开议


America’s House of Representatives finally has a speaker

美国众议院总算有了议长


What might Mike Johnson make of the worst job in Washington?

面对这份华盛顿最难搞工作,迈克·约翰逊心里会想什么?


As America’s House of Representatives began its fourth week without a speaker, it seemed like nothing would ever get Republicans to unite behind a new leader. But it turns out something could bring the fractious party together: sheer exhaustion, mixed with the possibility of having to govern with Democrats.


美国众议院连续三周群龙无首好像没有哪位候选人能获得共和党人的一致支持。但面对疲惫过度以及不得不与民主党共治议院的可能性,内斗不停的共和党人证明了他们能够重新联合起来。


注释:be behind sb (all the way): to support someone (completely) in what they are doing(全力)支持…(Cambridge Dictionary)


On October 25th Republicans unanimously voted for Mike Johnson, a 51-year-old congressman from Louisiana, to lead the lower chamber. Three previous nominees had dropped out after failing to get the support needed for the job. Mr Johnson, a lawyer and self-described “full-spectrum conservative”, has quietly risen through the ranks on Capitol Hill since arriving in 2017. He held relatively low-key positions in Republican leadership and for two years led the Republican Study Committee, an ideological caucus that counts a large majority of House Republicans as members. Yet Mr Johnson has never even served as a committee chairman.


1025日,在共和党人一致推选下,51岁的路易斯安那州众议员迈克·约翰逊(Mike Johnson)当选众议院议长。此前共和党提名过三个人选,但因支持票数不够,均未能当选。作为律师,约翰逊自诩为 “全方位的保守派 2017年担任国会议员以来,他一直在默默地晋升。过去,他在共和党领导层中的职位较为低调,曾任党内共和党研究委员会主席两年,众议院中绝大多数共和党人都是该委员会的成员。但是约翰逊从未担任过任何众议院委员会的主席。


Democrats who worked with hard-right Republicans to dispose of Kevin McCarthy may have hoped for a more moderate replacement. They are likely to be disappointed with the outcome. Mr Johnson’s congressional website describes him as “a leading defender of the right to life, religious liberty, free speech, the Second Amendment and free-market principles”, and the father of four stands out as a social conservative even within the Republican Party. Compared with Jim Jordan, a mentor whose own speakership bid failed, Mr Johnson has had a little more success sponsoring bills that actually became law.


对于那些与极右翼共和党人联手罢免凯文·麦卡锡的民主党人而言,他们可能曾经希望新任议长能够更温和一点。但现在的结果大概不会让他们满意。国会网站上,约翰逊的简介是生命权、宗教自由、言论自由、第二修正案和自由市场原则的主要捍卫者。这位四个孩子的父亲,即便在共和党内,约翰逊也是以社会保守派闻名。相比落选的人生导师吉姆·乔丹(Jim Jordan),约翰逊先生在把提案最终变成法律方面略胜一筹。


Perhaps most troubling, Mr Johnson has indulged some of his party’s worst impulses in recent years. He voted against certifying the 2020 election results and lobbied House Republicans to support a long-shot lawsuit to invalidate electoral-college votes in several states won by Joe Biden. Will Mr Johnson behave responsibly now that he is in a real position of power—especially as he has to negotiate with Democrats, given Republicans’ slim nine-seat majority in the House?


最令人不安的是,约翰逊纵容并参与了共和党这几年来的一些激进行为。他不仅投票反对承认2020 年的大选结果,而且游说众议院的共和党人支持一项长期诉讼,以使拜登赢得的几个州的选举人团票无效。如今约翰逊已经实权在握,他会在其位,谋其职吗?尤其是考虑到现在共和党在众议院只比民主党多 9个席位,优势微弱,他必须与民主党进行谈判。


After the painful process of finding a leader, Republicans will be eager to avoid such an embarrassing spectacle again. And, lacking Mr McCarthy’s baggage, the new speaker could have some space to compromise. For now, at least, he is operating with some sense of urgency.


经历了寻找领袖的痛苦过程之后,共和党人将急于避免这种尴尬的局面再次发生。并且,没了麦卡锡这一思想包袱,这位新议长可能尙有一丝妥协的余地。至少就目前而言,他工作有些许紧迫感。


“We’re going to dispense with all the usual ceremonies and celebrations that traditionally follow a new speakership, because we have no time,” Mr Johnson said minutes after getting promoted. “You’re going to see an aggressive schedule in the days and weeks ahead. You’re going to see Congress working as hard as it’s ever worked.” He added with a smile, “I want to thank you for being patient with us.”


约翰逊一当选就表示:时间有限,我们将取消在新议长上任后举行的所有传统仪式和庆祝活动。”“在接下来的几日至几周内,你们会看到一个紧迫的进度安排,看到国会像曾经那样殚精竭力奋发工作。他笑着补充道:感谢大家这段时间给予我们的耐心与支持。


The House immediately moved to pass a resolution condemning Hamas: its first vote will also be the easiest. The first real challenge will be finding a way to fund the government. On September 30th the House passed a bill to temporarily fund it at current levels. This averted a shutdown—but only until November 17th. Mr Johnson voted against the so-called continuing resolution last month, though he showed more pragmatism earlier in the year when he supported a bill that raised the debt ceiling.


众议院立即通过了一项谴责哈马斯的决议:这是约翰逊当选后的首次投票,也将是最简单的一次。第一项真正的挑战是解决美国联邦政府资金问题。930日,众议院通过了一项法案暂时按现有水平进行拨款。这避免了一场政府停摆,但只维持到1117日。约翰逊在上个月投票反对所谓的持续决议,尽管他在今年早些时候表现得更为务实——支持了一项提高债务上限的法案。


注释:

continuing resolution继续决议:一种临时立法,用于在美国国会未能通过正式预算时,为联邦政府提供短期资金,以避免政府停摆。


In a letter to colleagues on October 23rd Mr Johnson the candidate laid out an ambitious plan to pass a series of spending bills instead of one large long-term funding package. But intraparty fighting has made it hard to agree within the House, let alone negotiate with the rest of the government. “They actually have to pass something and work with the Senate and work with the president,” says Philip Wallach, an expert on Congress at the American Enterprise Institute. “He finds himself in the worst sort of predicament from day one.”


1023日致同僚的一封信中,候选人约翰逊提出了一项雄心勃勃的计划,即要通过一系列支出法案,而不是一项大型、长期的融资方案。但是,党内斗争使得众议院内部都很难达成一致意见,更不用说与政府其他部门进行谈判了。美国企业研究所(American Enterprise Institute)的国会问题专家菲利普瓦拉赫(Philip Wallach)表示:“他们实际上必须通过一些法案,并与参议院和总统合作。他发现自己从第一天起就陷入了最糟糕的境地。


Mr Johnson acknowledged that the House may need to pass another stopgap bill to fund the government into next year, hoping to “ensure the Senate cannot jam the House with a Christmas omnibus”. (Such a bill would package several measures into one big piece of legislation.) That does not mean a government shutdown is entirely out of the question. Even if Republicans finally agree on legislation, Democrats could find it unacceptable and bet that Republicans would receive more blame for a government closure.


约翰逊先生承认,众议院可能需要通过另一项临时法案来保证政府度过今年,希望确保参议院不会在圣诞大杂烩法案中对众议院施加压力(这种法案会将多项措施合并为一项大型立法)。这并不意味着政府一定不会关门。即使共和党最终就立法达成协议,民主党也不一定会接受,而且他们认定共和党会因政府停摆而受到更多指责。


The other urgent matter is the national-security funding request made by Mr Biden on October 20th. The spending package would allocate $61.4bn to fund Ukraine’s defence; $14.3bn for Israel; $13.6bn for America’s immigration crisis; $9.15bn in humanitarian aid for Gaza; and an additional $2bn in foreign support for the defence budgets of countries in Asia. The proposal should easily pass the Senate, which plans to hold hearings on the legislation on October 31st. Yet House Republicans have grown much more sceptical about assisting Ukraine.


另一紧急事项是拜登总统于1020日提出的国家安全资金申请。这项支出计划将拨款614亿美元用于资助乌克兰国防;143亿美元支持以色列;136亿美元用于美国的移民危机;915亿美元用于加沙的人道援助;以及额外的20亿美元支持亚洲国家的国防预算。参议院应该能够轻松通过这项提案,该院计划于1031日就这项立法举行听证会。然而,众议院的共和党议员对援助乌克兰越来越持怀疑态度。


The new speaker had yet to reveal his strategy on the national-security request by the time this article was published, but he did call the aid package a “top priority”—a welcome about-turn for Mr Johnson, who has routinely voted against aid for Ukraine. “We have to ensure that Vladimir Putin is not successful,” he told reporters. One possibility will be dividing each of the requests into separate bills and allowing separate votes. But he will have to move cautiously on this given the Republican Party’s isolationist streak.


截至本文发布,新议长尚未公布他在国家安全资金方面的策略,但他确实将援助计划称为当务之急——这对于约翰逊先生来说是一个积极转变,他曾经一再投票反对援助乌克兰。他对记者说:“我们必须确保普京不会成功。”其中一种可能性是将每个请求分为独立的法案,并允许分开投票。但考虑到共和党内部存在孤立主义倾向,他将不得不小心行事。


One member of Congress can still call for a vote to oust Mr Johnson, and it would take only a handful of Republicans working with every Democrat to remove him from the speakership. House Republicans certainly want to avoid the chaos and drama of another speakership fight. But if recent weeks have shown anything, it is that their capacity for political self-harm remains unmatched.


国会议员仍然可以要求投票罢免约翰逊先生,而且只需要少数几名共和党人与民主党议员合作,就可以免去他的众议院议长职务。众议院共和党议员当然希望避免再次发生议长职位争夺的混乱和戏剧性情况。但最近几周的事情表明,他们的政治自残能力可谓无人能及。


翻译组:
Devin,荣枯有数,得失难量
Benjamin,初学翻译的翻译小学生
Mai,男,经济学博士,世界那么大,我想活得久一点

校对组:
UU,日日行,不怕千万里
Vince,语言是前进路上的一道光
Yuqing,女,理想主义体验派,经济学人读者


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观点|评论|思考


感想:

Neil,男,外贸民工,经济学人铁粉

美国政府也面临百年未有之变局,史无前例的罢免事件反映出美国政治的严重分裂,对共和党的影响最大。中期选举失利,加上内部政治斗争以及战略困境,如果共和党不能在2024年大选前解决这些问题,那么它将面临巨大的政治风险和挑战。美国内部的不稳定,对美国对内对外政策制定和执行产生负面影响。
目前看,从经济的层面,罢免事件对美国国内的经济影响较小。美国第三季度经济增长4.9%,基数本来就高,增速快,我们看到了美国经济的韧性。民众消费需求旺盛,劳动力市场供需稳定。可能是上帝倾爱美国,每当经济发展停滞时,都有领先世界的科技推动经济回升。疫情给美国经济带来巨大冲击,AI爆火意外带来新的经济增长空间。虽然政局不稳定影响经济,但老美总是比较幸运。
其它国家就没有那么幸运了,乌克兰一直在等美国援助,众议院的决定影响俄乌战争的进程。共和党的影响力主要在军工和能源上,对乌克兰援助方面表现积极。新议长对援乌是否更为激进,不仅仅影响俄乌局势,间接地会影响能源价格,从而影响全球市场。所以众议院的选举对外部环境的影响力大于美国本土。


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