How climate change will hit holidaymaking | 商论双语

《经济学人·商论》2023-09-04

“今天抵达意大利博洛尼亚，现在要去托斯卡纳了。这里的热浪真不得了。这么下去，长远来说这些度假胜地是没有未来的。气候变化正在摧毁南欧。一个时代结束了。”7月初，德国卫生部长卡尔·劳特巴赫（Karl Lauterbach）的这条推文惹得意大利人很恼火。意大利旅游部长丹妮拉·桑坦奇（Daniela Santanchè）尖酸地回击说，她感谢劳特巴赫选择在意大利度假，但意大利政府对气候变化再清楚不过，可持续性正是其旅游管理战略的核心要素之一。“ARRIVED IN BOLOGNA, Italy, today, now it’s off to Tuscany. The heatwave is spectacular here. If things continue like this, these holiday destinations will have no future in the long term. Climate change is destroying southern Europe. An era comes to an end.” This tweet in early July by Karl Lauterbach, Germany’s health minister, went down badly in Italy. The country’s minister for tourism, Daniela Santanchè, sourly retorted that she thanked Mr Lauterbach for picking Italy for his holiday, but the Italian government was well aware of climate change and that sustainability was one of the central elements of its strategy for managing tourism.

旅游业可不仅仅是意大利经济的重要贡献力量。欧洲是世界上最受游客青睐的地区，2022全球9亿国际游客中有5.85亿去了欧洲。此外，在欧盟，国内度假者在旅游住宿场所的入住夜数超过了外国人。难怪这个行业直接贡献了欧盟GDP的5%，而间接贡献估计超过10%。一些国家严重依赖游客的直接和间接贡献，包括克罗地亚（占该国GDP的26%）、希腊（18.5%）、西班牙（13.6%）和意大利（10%）。The industry is not just an important contributor to Italy’s economy. Europe is the planet’s most visited region, welcoming 585m of the world’s 900m international travellers in 2022. On top of this, domestic holiday-makers outstripped foreigners in terms of nights spent in tourist accommodation in the EU. Little wonder then that the sector directly generates 5% of the EU’s GDP and by some estimates indirectly accounts for more than 10%. Some countries rely heavily on travellers’ contributions both direct and indirect, including Croatia (26% of GDP), Greece (18.5%), Spain (13.6%) and Italy (10%).

气候变化导致天气越发恶劣，这可能会重创旅游业。今年，南欧经历了一个异常动荡的夏季。7月，意大利西西里岛野火肆虐，极端炎热的天气是原因之一，该岛首府巴勒莫的气温一度攀升至47℃。再往北，伦巴第的雹灾夺去了几条生命。同样在7月，希腊当局不得不从被野火吞没的罗德岛和科孚岛撤离数万名游客。夏季热浪席卷西班牙之后，特内里费岛与野火作战，8月中旬有数千人被迫逃离家园。严重洪涝淹没了奥地利南部、克罗地亚和斯洛文尼亚。Changes to the climate that lead to ever-wilder weather could deliver a nasty blow to the tourist industry. This year southern Europe has endured an abnormally turbulent summer. Extreme hot weather in Italy in July contributed to wildfires that ravaged Sicily as the temperature at one time climbed to 47°C in Palermo, the island’s capital. Farther north, hailstorms in Lombardy claimed several lives. Also in July Greek authorities had to evacuate tens of thousands of tourists from Rhodes and Corfu after wildfires engulfed those islands. After heatwaves scorched Spain over the summer, Tenerife battled fires that forced thousands to flee their homes in mid-August. Heavy floods have deluged southern Austria, Croatia and Slovenia.... ...

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《经济学人·商论》2023-09-01

加利福尼亚极少像佛罗里达、路易斯安那和得克萨斯等州那样经常性地遭受飓风和暴风雨的袭击。但在8月20日，热带风暴希拉里（Hilary）从南面猛烈进袭该州。创纪录的强降雨倾泻在洛杉矶市中心，淹没了加州干旱的山谷。紧接着，预报就显示，随着一个热穹顶从美国南部大部分地区上空一直盖到五大湖区，天气将从“水煮”变成“烧烤”模式。

今年夏天，几乎每天都会传来世界某个地方出现某种极端天气的新闻。尽管天气总是在打破纪录，但人们开始担忧，当气候进一步变暖将会是什么情形？更令人警觉的是，美国国家海洋和大气管理局（National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration）宣布，厄尔尼诺已经到来。这种气候模式每两到七年出现一次，会导致全球气温升高。

因此，今年很有可能成为有记录以来最热的一年；而2024年还会更热，气温将比工业化前水平高出1.4℃。一些热带地区会遭受水灾，而另一些地区会暴发旱灾，带来粮食供应和疾病传播方面令人担忧的后果。和气候变化本身一样，现在就需要为厄尔尼诺即将带来的剧变做准备。... ...

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