Why it is time to retire Dr Copper | 商论双语
《经济学人·商论》2023-11-08
Why it is time to retire Dr Copper
梧桐
为什么该让铜医生退休了
这种红色金属不再能为投资者指明全球经济状况
DOCTORS ARE famously reluctant to hang up their stethoscopes. But a time comes in the career of every medic when their skills fade, and a gentle push is the best thing for them—and their patients. The same applies for the metaphorical physicians of the financial world, whose ability to diagnose the market’s health changes over time. Now the end may be nigh for the most illustrious of all such physicians: Dr Copper.
众所周知，医生都不大情愿挂起听诊器退休。但是，每个医师的职业生涯都会迎来技术衰退的那一刻，这时候温和地推一把，让他们离场，对他们和他们的病人来说都是最好的选择。这一点同样适用于金融世界里的“大夫”，它们诊断市场健康状况的能力也会随时间而变化。现在，此类医生当中最杰出的一位——“铜医生”，可能就要走到事业的尽头了。
Copper, a metal crucial to the construction of all manner of fittings, pipes and wires, has earned its nickname on Wall Street owing to its role as a bellwether for the health of global industry. A surge in copper prices is taken as an early sign of an economic upswing; a big drop is a portent of recession, or at the very least a manufacturing downturn.
铜是制造各种配件、管道和电线的关键金属，作为全球工业健康状况的风向标，在华尔街赢得了“铜医生”的绰号。铜价飙升被视为经济复苏的先兆，暴跌则预示着经济衰退，或者至少是制造业衰退。
So what is going on at the moment? Manufacturing looks peaky. Global industrial output is up by just 0.5% year on year, well below the average of 2.6% over the past two decades, and the rich world is in an industrial recession. A wobble of a similar scale in 2015 sent copper prices plunging by about a quarter. Yet so far this year they are down by only 6%. Futures maturing in 2025 are flat, and those maturing in 2026 are up a bit.
那么目前是什么情形？制造业似乎萎靡不振。全球工业产值同比仅增长0.5%，远低于过去二十年来2.6%的平均增速，发达国家正处于工业衰退之中。2015年也发生了类似规模的动荡，导致铜价暴跌约四分之一。然而，今年迄今为止铜价仅下跌了6%。2025年到期的铜期货价格保持平稳，2026年到期的还略有上涨。... ...
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