哪个经济体在2023年表现最好？| 商论双语

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2024-01-14 01:01

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《经济学人·商论》2024-01-03

Which economy did best in 2023?

从废墟中崛起

From the ruins

哪个经济体在2023年表现最好？

Which economy did best in 2023?

又一次意想不到的凯旋

Another unlikely triumph

由于各国央行加息以抑制通货膨胀，几乎所有人都预计2023年会出现全球经济衰退。这个共识是错误的。全球GDP可能增长了3%。就业市场保持坚挺。通胀正在下降。股市上涨了20%。

ALMOST EVERYONE expected a global recession in 2023, as central bankers raised interest rates to cool inflation. The consensus was wrong. Global GDP has probably grown by 3%. Job markets have held up. Inflation is on the way down. Stockmarkets have risen by 20%.

但这一整体表现掩盖了个体间的很大差异。《经济学人》根据五个指标——通胀、“通胀广度”、GDP、就业和股市表现——给35个以富裕经济体为主的国家编制了数据。我们根据它们在这些指标上的表现给它们排名，创建了一个综合得分。下表显示了排名，以及一些出人意料的结果。

But this aggregate performance conceals wide variation. The Economist has compiled data on five indicators—inflation, “inflation breadth”, GDP, jobs and stockmarket performance—for 35 mostly rich countries. We have ranked them according to how well they have done on these measures, creating an overall score. The table shows the rankings, and some surprising results.

希腊在这个排行榜上连续第二年蝉联榜首——这对于一个前些年还是管理不善的代名词的经济体来说是一个引人瞩目的成绩。除了韩国，其他排名前列的经济体大都位于美洲。美国排名第三。加拿大和智利与它相差不远。与此同时，许多表现疲软的国家位于北欧，包括英国、德国、瑞典，还有垫底的芬兰。

Top of the charts, for the second year running, is Greece—a remarkable result for an economy that was until recently a byword for mismanagement. Aside from South Korea, many of the other standout performers are in the Americas. The United States comes third. Canada and Chile are not far behind. Meanwhile, lots of the sluggards are in northern Europe, including Britain, Germany, Sweden and, bringing up the rear, Finland.

控制物价上涨是2023年的大挑战。我们关注的第一个指标是“核心”通胀，它不包括能源和食品等价格波动较大的项目，能很好地显示根本性的通胀压力。日本和韩国成功控制了物价。在瑞士，核心价格同比仅上涨了1.3%。然而在欧洲其他地方，许多国家仍然面临严重的通胀压力。在匈牙利，与一年前相比，核心通胀达到11%。严重依赖俄罗斯能源的芬兰也在艰难应对。

Tackling rising prices was the big challenge in 2023. Our first measure looks at “core” inflation, which excludes volatile components, such as energy and food, and is a good indicator of underlying inflationary pressure. Japan and South Korea have kept a lid on prices. In Switzerland core prices rose by just 1.3% year on year. Elsewhere in Europe, though, many countries still face serious pressure. In Hungary core inflation is running at 11% year on year. Finland, which is heavily dependent on Russian energy supplies, is also struggling.

以“通胀广度”来衡量，在大多数国家，通胀正在变得不那么顽固。该指标计算了消费价格篮子中价格同比上涨超过2%的商品所占的份额。智利和韩国等国央行在2022年积极加息，动作比许多富裕国家的央行更快，现在似乎正在收获成果。在韩国，通胀广度从73%降至60%。美国和加拿大的央行官员成绩也不错，这两国的通胀广度降幅还要更大。

In most countries inflation is becoming less entrenched—as measured by “inflation breadth”, a measure that calculates the share of items in the consumer-price basket where prices are rising by more than 2% year on year. Central bankers in places including Chile and South Korea increased interest rates aggressively in 2022, sooner than many of their peers across the rich world, and now appear to be reaping the benefits. In South Korea inflation breadth has fallen from 73% to 60%. Central bankers in America and Canada, where inflation breadth has dropped even more sharply, can take some credit, too.……

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