中国电车的发展主要得益于中国完整的工业制造链,近20年自己科技的迅猛发展,政府的大力扶持和行业竞争。电车要竞出生存,在于
科技化。我们消费者应该抛弃对车的传统认知,就像我们改变对原来电话的传统认知一样。
我非常看好中国的电车,现在的Xpeng, BYD, NIO, Geely 等,市场目标不同,希望能在激励的市场竞争中无论是质量还是科技化都能胜出。中国要走出制造廉价低质产品的阴影,这是一个很好的机会。
所以我一直支持Tesla等在中国的投资,直接带动了汽车行业的创新。中国帮助Tesla走出bankruptcy, 同时也推动了自己的汽车工业。自动驾驶是个瓶颈,但是中国大面积的5G站建设为将来的自动驾驶打下了良好基础,我认为中国在自动驾驶的开发上将来会超过Tesla.
下面copied 是一位读者对Toyata 在电车方面对Tesla的观点,认为Tesla是"work of art", 从中也可以看出大众的视野。Jobs在开发iphone 曾经说过,消费者不知道他们要什么,是我们告诉他们需要什么。
Toyota tore down the Tesla Model Y to learn how to build its own electric car that would be competitive. Did one of the leaders of the company (Toyota) say that under the skin, the Model Y is a real work of art?
Follow-Up “Toyota’s Decision” Below (28 Mar 2023)
Context information added below - can we trust this news story? Credit to Rick Collins’ Comment for asking the key question.
Short Answer: Yes, after tearing down a recent Tesla Model Y, senior Toyota engineers and managers describe the internals as, “…a work of art.”
Long Answer: Toyota was shocked by two factors, and likely overlooked two other factors that are incomprehensible to established auto manufacturers.
Shock 1: The elegant and efficient (to manufacture and operate) design. They correctly concluded Tesla has far more integrated design - across vehicle systems - and aggressive innovation than Toyota practices.
Shock 2: The pace of improvement. I suspect that Toyota tore down an early Tesla Model 3 about five years ago. The engineers would have continually laughed at poor body & chassis design as well as bungled assembly.
Toyota probably concluded they could out-compete Tesla with their eyes closed in 2018. Established auto manufacturers “know” that it takes at least five years to make major changes. Since the Model 3 looks exactly the same, and the Model Y reuses so many of its parts, Toyota wasn’t going to waste time and money doing another Tesla teardown in the insignificant (to them) Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) category. Especially when they still grinned every time they told teardown stories about stone-age Model 3 body & assembly.
Overlooked Factor 1: Tesla’s aggressive drive for constant innovation, and the nearly-unique Agile capabilities that allow them to constantly introduce new capabilities, designs and features into running assembly lines. Usually without disruption. Even Munro & Associates, a respected lean design firm, has Agile manufacturing blind spots.
Overlooked Factor 2: Tesla’s integration. This covers three dimensions: Different technology groups work together for full-system optimization. The entire process - design, sourcing and assembly - is integrated. Expertise is shared across Musk companies - Tesla, SpaceX, Boring company and NeuraLink.
Follow-Up: Toyota Announces Strategy - All Options, Hydrogen First, Battery-Electric in Lexus
From the outside, it seems that Toyota resumed its apparent denial and now believes:
Hydrogen powered vehicles will be mainstream soon and should remain the company’s primary focus. Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) will not be important until nearly 2030. Though they could very well be superseded by Hydrogen-powered vehicles by then. Lexus will be the BEV incubator. Toyota seems to emulate Tesla’s strategy - introduce BEV with high-end cars that can repay the development costs, then move down-market. There will be continued strong global demand for combustion (ICE) and hybrid vehicles in both developed and developing countries.
Toyota’s made a lot more money in the auto industry than I have. Still, my experience with disruptive technologies suggests that Toyota is under-estimating the inconvenient BEV tsunami that has already risen to their ankles.
History may view this decision as the time when Toyota reaffirmed their commitment to failure. Similar to when the Titanic’s officers under-valued their spotter’s iceberg alert and continued forward at full speed. Or Kodak made desultory digital photography efforts on their way to oblivion.
The necessary BEV architecture and platform may be late and inadequate if they are the company’s second priority, limited to a single division. When Tesla introduced the Model S, it had no credible BEV competition, had better acceleration than nearly all combustion vehicles and the purchase included a home charger. When Lexus delivers its first BEV models there will be many credible competitors.
Context - Can We Trust This Automotive News Story?
Automotive News, a reliable industry journal, reported the story. I purchased a subscription to read the full original story. It includes the attribution, “Numerous executives described Toyota's new approach to Automotive News with the understanding that they would not be identified discussing internal planning.” In a company as loyal as Toyota, a large group of executives would only talk about such sensitive issues and bad news with a reporter if their leader had instructed them to do that.
My guess is that Koji Sato is setting direction and expectations as he assumes leadership. He probably wants to “level-set” and align employees and suppliers, also minimize frustration and disappointment in the market by telling people:
The company now understands how far behind it is in the BEV market. The company recognizes it must start with the fundamentals. A no-compromise dedicated BEV platform. Not a “pretty good” global platform with ICE baggage. The story mentions many other areas where Toyota recognizes gaps. Toyota cannot quickly introduce a leading BEV-from-the-ground-up vehicle. For the next few years, Toyota can only work to improve products based on the vastly sub-optimal E-TNGA platform.
Note: VW faces the same issue - non-competitive EVs handicapped by an ICE-compromised platform. VW has firmly decided to NOT address the problem. VW fired Herbert Diess, the leader who called it out, and indefinitely postponed their version of the program Koji-san’s team shared with the reporter.
My respect for Koji Sato has grown. He demonstrates clear vision with great courage to acknowledge and quickly communicate bad news. Also the wisdom to conceive and adopt such an approach to advance the company.
The bad news - Toyota lost many years and now faces tremendous challenges over the next five years. The good news - the company has the right leader. He has sounded the alarm and is aligning the company to work in unison towards a common objective. It’s possible the executives were instructed to talk to the press to ensure and demonstrate their alignment around and ownership of the situation.
Conclusion: Toyota is correctly amazed at Tesla’s lead. Toyota may not yet realize that Tesla’s products will be much further ahead by the time Toyota emulates the Model Y they recently tore down. Toyota must also endure huge organizational, cultural and process disruption if they intend to achieve a competitive position in the BEV market.