活动 | 11.28 “国际冲突中，谁为声誉而战？”从领导人心理学洞悉国家在对外危机中的军事考量

不同国家和不同时代的领导人对挽回“面子”的担忧各有不同。例如，二战期间的英国领导人就是否应该反对德国和日本日益增长的侵略行为就存在严重分歧。美国前任总统奥巴马曾划下“红线（red line）”——不能容忍叙利亚军方手中的化学武器被用来对付叛乱分子或被极端组织偷走，但之后又未能坚守“红线”。

历史记录表明，领导人和他们最亲密的外交政策顾问经常对是否值得为名誉而战持有不同的看法。如何解释国家领导人为名誉而战的考量差异呢？现有的解释大多集中在战略环境的特征或具体的危机形势。

为了聚焦不同的分析框架，拓宽看待与理解国际风云变幻局势的新视角，11月28日哥大全球中心联合普林斯顿大学出版社，特邀哥伦比亚大学国际与公共事务学院院长Keren Yarhi-Milo教授，围绕她的著作 Who Fights for Reputation: The Psychology of Leaders in International Conflict（译为《为声誉而战：国际冲突中的领导人心理学》）举办线上分享与研讨会。

解释为名誉而战的意愿变化，对理解美国介入冲突的历史以及当代有关军事干预和军事胁迫应用的政策辩论都具有重要意义。针对领导人的心理学层面理论也具有一定的预测价值——它使我们能够对各国领导人和未来可能担当重任的政策制定者应对危机的行为方式构建预期。

Leaders in different countries and eras have differed in their concerns about saving "face". British leaders in the interwar period, for example, were deeply divided over whether their country should oppose the growing encroachments of Germany and Japan. Former U.S. President Barack Obama drew a red line that he would deploy military force to prevent chemical weapons in the hands of the Syrian military from being used against the rebels or stolen by extremist groups, but he failed to follow through on the "red line" declaration. The historical record suggests that leaders and their closest foreign policy advisors often hold divergent views about whether a reputation for resolve is worth fighting for.

What explains variations in concern about reputation for resolve among leaders? Most existing explanations have focused on features of the strategic environment or the specific crisis. To focus on different analytical frameworks and broaden the horizon for viewing and understanding the changing international relations, Columbia Global Centers | Beijing, in partnership with Princeton University Press, invites you to join our online book talk and discussion for Who Fights for Reputation: The Psychology of Leaders in International Conflict, featuring the author Keren Yarhi-Milo, Dean of Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs.

Explaining variations in willingness to fight for the reputation for resolve has important implications for understanding US conflict history as well as contemporary policy debates about military interventions and the application of military coercion. A leader-level theory on the psychology of leaders also has some predictive value——it allows us to form expectations about the crisis behavior not only of acting leaders but also of policymakers who might assume that position in the future. 

In Who Fights for Reputation: The Psychology of Leaders in International Conflict, Keren Yarhi-Milo provides an original framework, based on insights from psychology, to explain why some political leaders are more willing to use military force to defend their reputations than others. Rather than focusing on a leader's background, beliefs, bargaining skills, or biases, Yarhi-Milo draws a systematic link between a trait called self-monitoring and foreign policy behavior. She examines self-monitoring among national leaders and advisers and shows that while high self-monitors modify their behavior strategically to cultivate image-enhancing status, low self-monitors are less likely to change their behavior in response to reputation concerns.

Exploring self-monitoring through case studies of foreign policy crises during the terms of U.S. presidents Carter, Reagan, and Clinton, Yarhi-Milo disproves the notion that hawks are always more likely than doves to fight for reputation. Instead, Yarhi-Milo demonstrates that a decision maker's propensity for impression management is directly associated with the use of force to restore a reputation for resolve on the international stage.

Who Fights for Reputation offers a brand-new understanding of the pivotal influence that psychological factors have on political leadership, military engagement, and the protection of public prestige.

Yarhi-Milo教授的研究和教学重点是国际关系与外交政策，尤其关注国际安全，包括外交政策决策、跨国沟通和危机谈判、心理学、情报和美国在中东的外交政策。她的第二本著作，《为声誉而战：国际冲突中的领导人心理学》荣获了两个奖项：美国政治学协会颁发的 2019年外交政策领域最佳图书奖和国际研究协会颁发的 2020年外交政策双年度最佳图书奖。

Keren Yarhi-Milo is the dean of Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs(SIPA). An expert in international security, crisis decision-making, and political psychology, Dean Yarhi-Milo is also an award-winning scholar with an extensive record of leadership and service at SIPA and Columbia, where she holds a professorship in political science and public and international affairs.

尹继武教授2007年毕业于中国人民大学国际关系学院，获国际政治专业博士学位，曾供职于北京外国语大学国际关系学院。尹教授的研究兴趣包括国际关系理论、政治心理学、国际安全与中国外交，他还担任《世界政治研究》杂志副主编以及《外交评论》杂志编委。

Jiwu Yin is a professor and doctoral supervisor of the School of International Studies at the Renmin University of China. He has a doctorate degree in international politics from the Renmin University of China. Yin is the deputy editor of the journal "World Politics Studies" and a member of the editorial board of ''Foreign Affairs Review".

张清敏教授的代表著作包括《当代中国外交》、《美国对台军售政策研究：决策的视角》以及100余篇学术论文。他的研究领域包括对外政策分析理论与中国对外政策、外交学理论与当代中国外交、美国外交与中美关系、台湾问题与亚太国际关系。张教授拥有外交学院国际关系专业博士学位和美国杨百翰大学国际关系硕士学位。

Qingmin Zhang is a professor and the chair of the Department of Diplomacy at the School of International Studies at Peking University. His teaching and research interests include Chinese foreign policy, diplomatic studies, theory of foreign policy analysis, and China and East Asia. He is the author of China's Foreign Relations, U.S. Arms Sales Policy toward Taiwan: a Decision-Making Perspective, and Contemporary China's Diplomacy.

于铁军教授2000年毕业于北京大学国际关系学院，获法学博士学位。曾先后在日本东京大学综合文化研究科国际关系专业、斯坦福大学国际安全与合作中心、哈佛大学费正清东亚研究中心留学或做访问学者。于教授的主要教学和研究方向为东亚国际关系、国际政治理论、国际政治思想史和国际安全。

Tiejun Yu is the dean of the Institute of International and Strategic Studies and a professor at the School of International Studies at Peking University. His research interests include the history of international relations, the history of international political thought, international relations in East Asia, international security and strategic studies, and Chinese national defense policy.